COVID-19 death risk predictors in Brazil using survival tree analysis: a retrospective cohort from 2020 to 2022.

PURPOSE: This study analyses the survival of hospitalized patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) due to COVID-19 and identifies the risk groups for death due to COVID-19 from the identification of potential interactions between its predictors. METHODS: This was a retrospective longitudinal study with data from 1,756,917 patients reported in the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System from 26 February 2020 to 31 December 2022. In this study, all adult and older (≥ 20 years) patients were hospitalized with SARS due to COVID-19, with death as the outcome. Survival tree analysis was used to identify potential interactions between the predictors. A model was built for each year of study. RESULTS: Hospital lethalitywas 33.2%. The worst survival curve was observed among those who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation and were aged 80 years or older in the three years of the pandemic. Black and brown race/color were predictors of deaths in the years 2020 and 2021 when there was greater demand from the health system due to the greater number of cases. CONCLUSION: By applying survival tree analysis we identified several numbers of homogeneous subgroups with different risks for mortality from COVID-19. These findings show the effects of wide inequalities of access by the population, requiring effective policies for the reduction and adequate management of the disease.

What happened to health labour markets during COVID-19? Insights from the analysis of cross-sectional survey data on the perceptions of medical doctors in Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: To examine physicians' perceptions of changing employment opportunities in Brazil, and gain an insight into labour markets in low/middle-income countries (LMICs) during the pandemic. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive and inferential analysis of a quantitative dataset from a representative cross-sectional survey of physicians of two Brazilian states. SETTINGS: São Paulo and Maranhão states in Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Representative sample of 1183 physicians. OUTCOME MEASURES: We estimated prevalence and 95% CIs for physicians' perceptions of changes in demand and supply of doctors, as well as changes in prices of medical services for facilities of practice in the two states, stratified by public, private and dual-practice physicians. RESULTS: Most doctors reported increased job opportunities in the public sector (54.9%, 95% CI 52.0% to 57.7%), particularly in Maranhão state (65.0%, 95% CI 60.9% to 68.9%). For the private sector, increased opportunities were reported only in large private hospitals (46.7%, 95% CI 43.9% to 49.6%) but not in smaller clinics. We recorded perceptions of slight increases in availability of doctors in Maranhão, particularly in the public sector (51.4%, 95% CI 43.2% to 59.5%). Younger doctors recounted increased vacancies in the public sector (64%, 95% CI 58.1% to 68.1%), older doctors only in walk-in clinics in Maranhão (47.5%, 95% CI 39.9% to 55.1%). Those working directly with patients with COVID-19 saw opportunities in public hospitals (65%, 95% CI 62.3% to 68.4%) and in large private ones (55%, 95% CI 51.8% to 59.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings hint that health labour markets in LMICs may not necessarily shrink during epidemics, and that impacts will depend on the balance of public and private services in national health systems.

[COVID-19 mortality in metropolitan areas vs. other regions of Brazil, 2020 to 2021Mortalidad por COVID-19 en las regiones metropolitanas y en el interior de Brasil, 2020-2021]. / Mortalidade por covid-19 no interior e em regiões metropolitanas do Brasil, 2020 a 2021.

Objective: To compare hospital mortality rates (HMR) due to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) associated with COVID-19 recorded in metropolitan areas and other regions (interior) of Brazil in 2020 and 2021. Method: This ecological study used public data available on OpenDataSUS. The information was accessed in May 2022. The following variables were considered: age, sex, hospitalization, presence of a risk factor, ICU stay, use of ventilatory support, and final classification in the individual registration form of SARS cases due to COVID-19. Cases and deaths were stratified into five age groups (0-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years, 60-79 years, and ≥80 years) and by place of residence (metropolitan area or interior). The HMR had as numerator the absolute number of deaths by SARS associated with covid-19; and, as a denominator, the absolute number of cases of SARS due to covid-19 according to the year of occurrence, area of residence, age bracket, sex, hospitalization, presence of a risk factor, ICU admission, and use of ventilatory support. Results: There was a significant increase in HMR due to SARS associated with COVID-19 in 2021 in all age groups, except 0-19 years and ≥80 years, as well as among individuals admitted to an ICU and who used invasive ventilatory support, both in metropolitan areas as well as in the interior. Conclusions: There was a worsening of the epidemiological scenario in 2021 with an increase in HMR. However, no differences were identified between the metropolitan regions and the interior of the country.

Objetivo: Comparar las tasas de mortalidad hospitalaria por el síndrome respiratorio agudo grave relacionado con la COVID-19 registradas en las regiones metropolitanas y el interior de Brasil en el período 2020-2021. Método: Se realizó un estudio ecológico con datos públicos disponibles en el sistema OpenDataSUS. La información se consultó en mayo del 2022. Se tomaron en cuenta las siguientes variables: edad, sexo, hospitalización, presencia de factores de riesgo, ingreso en la unidad de cuidados intensivos, uso de apoyo ventilatorio y clasificación final en la hoja de registro individual de casos del síndrome respiratorio agudo grave por COVID-19. Los casos y las defunciones se estratificaron en cinco grupos etarios (0-19 años, 20-39 años, 40-59 años, 60-79 años y ≥80 años) y por ubicación del municipio de residencia (región metropolitana o interior). El numerador de la tasa de mortalidad hospitalaria fue el número absoluto de defunciones por el síndrome respiratorio agudo grave relacionado con la COVID-19, y el denominador, el número absoluto de casos del mismo síndrome relacionado con la COVID-19 según el año de aparición, la residencia en una región metropolitana o en el interior, el grupo etario, el sexo, la hospitalización, la presencia de factores de riesgo, el ingreso en la unidad de cuidados intensivos y el uso de apoyo ventilatorio. Resultados: Se comprobó un aumento significativo de la tasa de mortalidad hospitalaria por el síndrome respiratorio agudo grave relacionado con la COVID-19 en el 2021 en todos los grupos etarios, excepto en los grupos de 0-19 años y ≥80 años, así como entre las personas internadas en la unidad de cuidados intensivos que recibieron apoyo respiratorio invasivo, tanto en las regiones metropolitanas como en el interior. Conclusiones: La situación epidemiológica empeoró en el 2021 con el aumento de la tasa de mortalidad hospitalaria, pero no se observaron diferencias entre las regiones metropolitanas y el interior del país.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Physicians' Working Hours and Earnings in São Paulo and Maranhão States, Brazil.

Evidence exists on the health impacts of the current COVID-19 pandemic on health workers, but less is known about its impact on their work dynamics and livelihoods. This matters, as health workers-and physicians in particular-are a scarce and expensive resource in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Our cross-sectional survey set out to explore changes in working hours and earnings during the second year of the pandemic in a representative sample of 1183 physicians in Brazil's São Paulo (SP) and Maranhão (MA) states. Descriptive analysis and inferential statistics were employed to explore differences in working hours and earnings among public and private sector physicians across the two locations. The workloads and earnings of doctors working exclusively in the public sector increased the most in the second year of the epidemic, particularly in MA. Conversely, the largest proportion of private-only doctors in our sample saw a decrease in their working hours (48.4%, 95% CI 41.8-55.0), whereas the largest proportion of public-only doctors in MA saw an increase in their working hours (44.4%, 95% CI 38.0-50.8). Although earnings remained broadly stable in the public sector, a third of public sector-only physicians in MA saw an increase in their earnings (95% CI 24.4-36.2). More than half of private-only doctors across both states saw a decrease in their earnings (52.2%, 95% CI 45.6-58.8). The largest proportion of dual practitioners (the majority in Brazil and in our sample) maintained their pre-pandemic levels of income (38.8%, 95% CI 35.3-42.3). As public-sector doctors have been key in the fight against the pandemic, it is critical to invest in these cadres in order to develop epidemic preparedness in LMICs, and to find new ways to harness for-profit actors to deliver social benefits.

Demographic and professional risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 infections among physicians in low- and middle-income settings: Findings from a representative survey in two Brazilian states.

Health workers (HWs) are a key resource for health systems worldwide, and have been affected heavily by the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence is consolidating on incidence and drivers of infections, predominantly in high-income settings. It is however unclear what the risk factors may be for specific health professions, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We conducted a cross-sectional survey in a representative sample of 1,183 medical doctors registered with Brazil's Federal Council of Medicine in one developed (São Paulo) and one disadvantaged state (Maranhão). Between February-June 2021, we administered a telephone questionnaire to collect data on physicians' demographics, deployment to services, vaccination status, and self-reported COVID-19 infections. We performed descriptive, univariate, and multilevel clustered analysis to explore the association between physicians' infection rates, and their sociodemographic and employment characteristics. A generalized linear mixed model with a binomial distribution was used to estimate the adjusted odds ratio. We found that 35.8% of physicians in our sample declared having been infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus during the first year of the pandemic. The infection rate in Maranhão (49.2%) [95% CI 45.0-53.4] was almost twice that in São Paulo (24.1%) [95% CI 20.8-27.5]. Being a physician in Maranhão [95% CI 2.08-3.57], younger than 50 years [95% CI 1.41-2.89] and having worked in a COVID-19 ward [95% CI 1.28-2.27], were positively associated with the probability of infection. Conversely, working with diagnostic services [95% CI 0.53-0.96], in administrative functions [95% CI 0.42-0.80], or in teaching and research [95% CI 0.48-0.91] were negatively associated. Based on our data from Brazil, COVID-19 infections in LMICs may be more likely in health systems with lower physician-to-patient ratios, and younger doctors working in COVID-19 wards may be infected more frequently. Such findings may be used to identify policies to mitigate COVID-19 effects on HWs in LMICs.

Beriberi in Brazil: A Disease That Affects Indigenous People.

BACKGROUND: Beriberi is the clinical manifestation of thiamine deficiency. It is multicausal and typically associated with poverty and food insecurity among vulnerable populations, such as indigenous people. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to carry out a spatial analysis of reported cases of beriberi among indigenous people in Brazil. METHODS: Cross-sectional study using time series data on suspected cases of beriberi reported to the Ministry of Health via the FormSUS between July 2013 and September 2018. Indigenous villages were georeferenced, and Kernel density estimation was used to identify patterns of the spatial distribution of beriberi cases. RESULTS: A total of 414 cases of beriberi were reported in the country of which 210 (50.7%) were indigenous people. All the cases in indigenous people occurred in states located in the Legal Amazon (Maranhão, Roraima, and Tocantins). Kernel density estimation showed high-density areas in Tocantins and Roraima. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first nationwide study of reported cases of beriberi. The findings can be used to guide actions that contribute to the monitoring and prevention of beriberi among indigenous people.

Mortality by skin color/race and urbanity of Brazilian cities.

OBJECTIVE: The skin color/race and urbanity are structural determinants of health. The relationship between these variables produces structure of social stratification that defines inequalities in the experiences of life and death. Thus, this study describes the characteristics of the mortality indicators by skin color/race according level of urbanity and aggregation to the metropolitan region (MR) of 5565 cities in Brazil, controlling for gender and age. DESIGN: Descriptive study which included the calculation of measures relating to 1,050,546 deaths in the year survey of 2010 by skin color/race White, Black, and Brown according to both sexes, for five age groups and three levels of urbanity of cities in Brazil that were aggregated or not to the MR in the year of study. The risk of death was estimated by calculating premature mortality rate (PMR) at 65 years of age, per 100,000 and age adjusted. RESULTS: The structure of mortality by skin color/race Black and Brown reflects worse levels of health and excessive premature deaths, with worse situation for men. The Whites, especially women, tend to live longer and in better health than other racial groups. The age-adjusted PMR indicates distinct risk of death by skin color/race, this risk was higher in men than in women and in Blacks than in other racial groups of both sexes. There have been precarious levels of health in the urban space and the MR has intensified these inequalities. CONCLUSIONS: The research pointed out that the racial inequality in the mortality was characterized by interaction of race with other individual and contextual determinants of health. Those Blacks and Browns are the groups most vulnerable to the iniquities associated with occurrence of death, but these differences in the profile and the risk of death depend on the level of urbanity and aggregation MR of Brazilian cities in 2010.