The HIV epidemic in Colombia: spatial and temporal trends analysis.

BACKGROUND: Colombia has the fourth highest incidence rate of HIV/AIDS among all Latin American countries and it has been increasing since the 1980s. However, the number of studies that addresses this trend is limited. Here, we employed spatial and temporal trend analyses to study the behaviour of the epidemic in the Colombian territory. METHODS: Our sample included 72,994 cases of HIV/AIDS and 21,898 AIDS-related deaths reported to the National Ministry of Health between 2008 and 2016. We employed the joinpoint regression model to analyse the annual HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality rates. In the spatial analysis, we used univariate autocorrelation techniques and the Kernel density estimator. RESULTS: While the HIV/AIDS incidence had an increasing trend in Colombia, the AIDS mortality rate was stable. HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality showed a downward trend in the 0-14 age group. An upward trend was observed for HIV/AIDS incidence in people older than 15 years and with the highest trend in the 65 years and above group. AIDS mortality showed an increasing trend among people aged 65 years or older. The comparison between the sexes showed an upward trend of HIV/AIDS incidence in all age groups and AIDS-mortality rates in 65 years and above in men, while in women, the incidence was upward among those aged 45 years and above, and concerning the AIDS-mortality rate in the 45-64 group. The high-high clusters of HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality were located in the Andean and Caribbean regions. CONCLUSION: Our study found an upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and a stable trend in the AIDS mortality rate in Colombia. The downward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality rate in the 0-14 age group reflects the downwards mother-to-child HIV transmission. The upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence in older women and AIDS mortality in younger women rates, compared with men, may be due to late diagnosis and treatment. The Caribbean and the 'coffee belt' regions were the most impacted by the HIV epidemic, most likely due to sexual tourism. Our results provide crucial information that may help Colombian health authorities fight HIV transmission.

Detection of risk clusters for deaths due to tuberculosis specifically in areas of southern Brazil where the disease was supposedly a non-problem.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is the infectious disease that kills the most people worldwide. The use of geoepidemiological techniques to demonstrate the dynamics of the disease in vulnerable communities is essential for its control. Thus, this study aimed to identify risk clusters for TB deaths and their variation over time. METHODS: This ecological study considered cases of TB deaths in residents of Londrina, Brazil between 2008 and 2015. We used standard, isotonic scan statistics for the detection of spatial risk clusters. The Poisson discrete model was adopted with the high and low rates option used for 10, 30 and 50% of the population at risk, with circular format windows and 999 replications considered the maximum cluster size. Getis-Ord Gi* (Gi*) statistics were used to diagnose hotspot areas for TB mortality. Kernel density was used to identify whether the clusters changed over time. RESULTS: For the standard version, spatial risk clusters for 10, 30 and 50% of the exposed population were 4.9 (95% CI 2.6-9.4), 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1-5.7) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1-5.7), respectively. For the isotonic spatial statistics, the risk clusters for 10, 30 and 50% of the exposed population were 2.8 (95% CI: 1.5-5.1), 2.7 (95% CI: 1.6-4.4), 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4-3.9), respectively. All risk clusters were located in the eastern and northern regions of the municipality. Additionally, through Gi*, hotspot areas were identified in the eastern and western regions. CONCLUSIONS: There were important risk areas for tuberculosis mortality in the eastern and northern regions of the municipality. Risk clusters for tuberculosis deaths were observed in areas where TB mortality was supposedly a non-problem. The isotonic and Gi* statistics were more sensitive for the detection of clusters in areas with a low number of cases; however, their applicability in public health is still restricted.

Areas with evidence of equity and their progress on mortality from tuberculosis in an endemic municipality of southeast Brazil.

BACKGROUND: In Brazil, people still fall ill and die from tuberculosis (TB), and this can be explained by the significant impasse in the equity of distribution of therapeutic resources to the population as a whole. The aim was to identify geographical areas which have shown progress in terms of equity (of income, schooling and urban occupancy) and test its effect on mortality from TB in a municipality of southeast Brazil. METHODS: It is an ecological study considering TB as the basic cause for deaths registered between 2006 and 2013 on the Mortality Information System and other variables obtained through the Demographic Census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (2010). The geographical area for analysis comprised the areas of coverage of the health services. Social indicators have been constructed through the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The cases were geocoded and the annual mortality rate from TB was calculated with smoothing using the local empirical Bayesian method. Multiple linear regression was then performed. There was confirmation of the existence of spatial dependence of residue through the application of the Global Moran I test, and application of the Models with Global Spatial Effects, to identify the best standard of spatial regression. RESULTS: The mortality rates ranged from 0.00 to 2.8 deaths per 100,000 people, per year. In the PCA, three indicators were constructed, and designated as indicators of income, social inequality, and social equity. In multiple linear regression, the indicator of social equity was statistically significant (P < 0.0001) but had a negative association, an adjusted R2 of 28.36% and with spatial dependence (Moran I = 0.21, P = 0.003455). The best model to deal with existing spatial dependence was the Spatial Lag Model. CONCLUSIONS: The better social conditions have shown progress in reducing mortality from TB, thereby reinforcing the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals. In addition, cartography was also applied, which can be replicated in other scenarios throughout the world, using a scope distinct from that of works traditionally produced in that it places the emphasis on social equity.

Validity and reliability of the tuberculosis-related stigma scale version for Brazilian Portuguese.

BACKGROUND: Stigma associated with tuberculosis (TB) has been an object of interest in several regions of the world. The behaviour presented by patients as a result of social discrimination has contributed to delays in diagnosis and the abandonment of treatment, leading to an increase in the cases of TB and drug resistance. The identification of populations affected by stigma and its measurement can be assessed with the use of valid and reliable instruments developed or adapted to the target culture. This aim of this study was to analyse the initial psychometric properties of the Tuberculosis-Related Stigma scale in Brazil, for TB patients. METHODS: The Tuberculosis-Related Stigma scale is a specific scale for measuring stigma associated with TB, originally validated in Thailand. It presents two dimensions to be assessed, namely Community perspectives toward tuberculosis and Patient perspectives toward tuberculosis. The first has 11 items regarding the behaviour of the community in relation to TB, and the second is made up of 12 items related to feelings such as fear, guilt and sorrow in coping with the disease. A pilot test was conducted with 83 TB patients, in order to obtain the initial psychometric properties of the scale in the Brazilian Portuguese version, enabling simulation of the field study. RESULTS: As regards its psychometric properties, the scale presented acceptable internal consistency for its dimensions, with values ≥0.70, the absence of floor and ceiling effects, which is favourable for the property of scale responsiveness, satisfactory converging validity for both dimensions, with values over 0.30 for initial studies, and diverging validity, with adjustment values different from 100%. CONCLUSION: The results found show that the Tuberculosis-Related Stigma scale can be a valid and reliable instrument for the Brazilian context.

Spatial clustering and local risk of leprosy in São Paulo, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Although the detection rate is decreasing, the proportion of new cases with WHO grade 2 disability (G2D) is increasing, creating concern among policy makers and the Brazilian government. This study aimed to identify spatial clustering of leprosy and classify high-risk areas in a major leprosy cluster using the SatScan method. METHODS: Data were obtained including all leprosy cases diagnosed between January 2006 and December 2013. In addition to the clinical variable, information was also gathered regarding the G2D of the patient at diagnosis and after treatment. The Scan Spatial statistic test, developed by Kulldorff e Nagarwalla, was used to identify spatial clustering and to measure the local risk (Relative Risk-RR) of leprosy. Maps considering these risks and their confidence intervals were constructed. RESULTS: A total of 434 cases were identified, including 188 (43.31%) borderline leprosy and 101 (23.28%) lepromatous leprosy cases. There was a predominance of males, with ages ranging from 15 to 59 years, and 51 patients (11.75%) presented G2D. Two significant spatial clusters and three significant spatial-temporal clusters were also observed. The main spatial cluster (p = 0.000) contained 90 census tracts, a population of approximately 58,438 inhabitants, detection rate of 22.6 cases per 100,000 people and RR of approximately 3.41 (95%CI = 2.721-4.267). Regarding the spatial-temporal clusters, two clusters were observed, with RR ranging between 24.35 (95%CI = 11.133-52.984) and 15.24 (95%CI = 10.114-22.919). CONCLUSION: These findings could contribute to improvements in policies and programming, aiming for the eradication of leprosy in Brazil. The Spatial Scan statistic test was found to be an interesting resource for health managers and healthcare professionals to map the vulnerability of areas in terms of leprosy transmission risk and areas of underreporting.

[Factors related to the place of first choice for the diagnosis of tuberculosis]. / Fatores associados à primeira escolha de local para o diagnóstico da tuberculose.

The objective of this study was to identify factors related to the place of first choice for the diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis. A descriptive quantitative study was conducted in Natal/RN, throughout February/September 2012 with 60 individuals diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis that responded a questionnaire. Data were analyzed by the Chi-square and Fisher test. The factors asso- ciated to the place of first choice were: having had previous contact with the disease (p = 0.04); the person's awareness of the disease (p = 0.018) and having had previous care at the health service unit of choice (p = 0.002). It is concluded that intrinsic and extrinsic factors may influence the individual's first choice of a place for care and diagnosis of diseases. It is important that nurses promote actions related to these factors, for the enhancement of early diagnosis of tuberculosis through case finding and access to the primary care unit thereby reducing the demand for emergency services.