A cumulative impact assessment on the marine capacity to supply ecosystem services.

Ecosystem services link the status of biodiversity and its functioning to societal goods and benefits contributing to human wellbeing. As such, they can play a key role in preserving the environment and managing natural resources and ecosystems to conserve nature's contributions to people. Identification of the main threats acting on the natural environment, and how these may impact its capacity to supply ecosystem services, is fundamental to the maintenance of these services. To that end, we present a novel approach based on a cumulative impacts assessment that 1) covers all relevant human activities and their pressures, 2) links impacts to the biotic groups that make up biodiversity and 3) provides an estimation of the Service Supply Potential based on the functioning of these biotic groups. Key proxy metrics to estimate this Service Supply Potential were identified from a literature review and quantified using a food web model (Ecopath with Ecosim). In addition to this quantitative information, the assessment of the capacity to supply ecosystem services was supplemented with expert judgement-based information to reflect the societal preferences that drive the allocation of human capital and turn these services into societal goods and benefits. As a proof of concept, the method was applied to the North Sea ecosystem. Results showed that, overall, the capacity of the North Sea to supply Cultural ecosystem services was most threatened, with an average potential decline of 50 % compared to an undisturbed situation. This was followed by the Provisioning ecosystem services with 46 % and the Regulation & Maintenance with 38 %. The main anthropogenic threats (excluding climate change) to the North Sea capacity to supply ecosystem services come primarily from fishing contributing to 51 % of the overall threat. Of the remaining 18 sectoral activities another 23 % was contributed by mining, non-renewable energy, tourism, and agriculture.

Comparison of Substance-Based and Whole-Effluent Toxicity of Produced Water Discharges from Norwegian Offshore Oil and Gas Installations.

When assessing the environmental risks of offshore produced water discharges, it is key to properly assess the toxicity of this complex mixture. Toxicity can be assessed either through the application of whole-effluent toxicity (WET) testing or based on its substance-based chemical composition or both. In the present study, the toxicity assessed based on WET and substance-based was compared for 25 offshore produced water effluents collected for the Norwegian implementation of the Oslo-Paris convention risk-based assessment program. The objectives were, firstly, to examine the concurrence between toxicity estimates derived from these two lines of evidence; and, secondly, to evaluate whether toxicity of produced water discharges predicted from substance-based data is adequately addressed in comparison with ground truth reflected by WET. For both approaches, 50% hazardous concentrations (HC50s) were calculated. For at least 80% of the effluents the HC50s for the two approaches differed by less than a factor of 5. Differences found between the two approaches can be attributed to the uncertainty in the estimation of the concentration of production chemicals that strongly influences the substance-based estimated toxicity. By evaluating effluents on a case-by-case basis, additional causes were hypothesized. Risk management will particularly benefit from the strength of risk endpoints from both approaches by monitoring them periodically in conjunction over time. This way (in)consistencies in trends of both indicators can be evaluated and addressed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:2285-2304. © 2022 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

A roadmap towards quantitative cumulative impact assessments: Every step of the way.

Currently most Cumulative Impacts Assessments (CIAs) are risk-based approaches that assess the potential impact of human activities and their pressures on the ecosystem thereby compromising the achievement of policy objectives. While some of these CIAs apply actual data (usually spatial distributions) they often have to rely on categorical scores based on expert judgement if they actually assess impact which is often expressed as a relative measure that is difficult to interpret in absolute terms. Here we present a first step-wise approach to conduct a fully quantitative CIA based on the selection and subsequent application of the best information available. This approach systematically disentangles risk into its exposure and effect components that can be quantified using known ecological information, e.g. spatial distribution of pressures or species, pressure-state relationships and population dynamics models with appropriate parametrisation, resulting in well-defined assessment endpoints that are meaningful and can be easily communicated to the recipients of advice. This approach requires that underlying assumptions and methodological considerations are made explicit and translated into a measure of confidence. This transparency helps to identify the possible data-handling or methodological decisions and shows the resulting improvement through its confidence assessment of the applied information and hence the resulting accuracy of the CIA. To illustrate this approach, we applied it in a North Sea CIA focussing on two sectors, i.e. fisheries and offshore windfarms, and how they impact the ecosystem and its components, i.e. seabirds, seabed habitats and marine mammals through various pressures. The results provide a "proof of concept" for this generic approach as well as rigorous definitions of several of the concepts often used as part of risk-based approaches, e.g. exposure, sensitivity, vulnerability, and how these can be estimated using actual data. As such this widens the scope for increasingly more quantitative CIAs using the best information available.

Limited seed retention during winter inhibits vegetation establishment in spring, affecting lateral marsh expansion capacity.

Coastal systems worldwide deliver vital ecosystem services, such as biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and coastal protection. Effectivity of these ecosystem services increases when vegetation is present. Understanding the mechanisms behind vegetation establishment in bio-geomorphic systems is necessary to understand their ability to recover after erosive events and potential adaptations to climate change. In this study, we examined how seed availability affects vegetation establishment in the salt marsh-intertidal flat transition zone: the area with capacity for lateral marsh expansion. This requires vegetation establishment; therefore, seed availability is essential. In a 6-month field experiment, we simulated a before and after winter seed dispersal at two locations, the salt-marsh vegetation edge and the intertidal flat, and studied seed retention, the seed bank, and the seed viability of three pioneer marsh species: Salicornia procumbens, Aster tripolium, and Spartina anglica. During winter storm conditions, all supplied seeds eroded away with the sediment surface layer. After winter, supplied seeds from all three species were retained, mostly at the surface while 9% was bioturbated downwards. In the natural seed bank, A. tripolium and S. anglica were practically absent while S. procumbens occurred more frequently. The viability of S. procumbens seeds was highest at the surface, between 80% and 90%. The viability quickly decreased with depth, although viable S. procumbens seeds occurred up to 15 cm depth. Only when seeds were supplied after winter, many S. procumbens and some S. anglica individuals did establish successfully in the transition zone. Viable seed availability formed a vegetation establishment threshold, even with a local seed source. Our results suggest that, although boundary conditions such as elevation, inundation, and weather conditions were appropriate for vegetation establishment in spring, the soil surface in winter can be so dynamic that it limits lateral marsh expansion. These insights can be used for designing effective nature-based coastal protection.

How including ecological realism impacts the assessment of the environmental effect of oil spills at the population level: The application of matrix models for Arctic Calanus species.

For oil spill responses, assessment of the potential environmental exposure and impacts of a spill is crucial. Due to a lack of chronic toxicity data, acute data is used together with precautionary assumptions. The effect on the Arctic keystone (copepod) species Calanus hyperboreus and Calanus glacialis populations is compared using two approaches: a precautionary approach where all exposed individuals die above a defined threshold concentration and a refined (full-dose-response) approach. For this purpose a matrix population model parameterised with data from the literature is used. Population effects of continuous exposures with varying durations were modelled on a range of concentrations. Just above the chronic No Observed Effect Concentration (which is field relevant) the estimated population recovery duration of the precautionary approach was more than 300 times that of the refined approach. With increasing exposure concentration and duration, the effect in the refined approach converges to the maximum effect assumed in the precautionary approach.

The toxic exposure of flamingos to per- and Polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) from firefighting foam applications in Bonaire.

In 2010 an oil terminal next to nature reservation Saliña Goto (Bonaire) caught fire. Firefighting resulted in elevated per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) concentrations in the salt lake. Within months flamingo abundance in Goto dropped to near complete absence. After statistical analysis, rainfall was deemed an unlikely cause for this decline. Toxicological effects on abundance of prey are likely the main cause for the flamingo absence. This reduced PFAS exposure via food and thus risk towards flamingos during the first years after the fires. Although the sediment is still polluted with persistent PFAS, flamingos returned, and started to feed on organisms with PFAS levels that exceed safety thresholds, placing the birds and other wildlife at risk. Monitoring bird populations is advised to assess potential toxic effects on birds and their offspring. This case suggests that applying persistent chemicals to reduce incident impacts may be more harmful than the incident itself.

Toward a harmonized approach for environmental assessment of human activities in the marine environment.

With a foreseen increase in maritime activities, and driven by new policies and conventions aiming at sustainable management of the marine ecosystem, spatial management at sea is of growing importance. Spatial management should ensure that the collective pressures caused by anthropogenic activities on the marine ecosystem are kept within acceptable levels. A multitude of approaches to environmental assessment are available to provide insight for sustainable management, and there is a need for a harmonized and integrated environmental assessment approach that can be used for different purposes and variable levels of detail. This article first provides an overview of the main types of environmental assessments: "environmental impact assessment" (EIA), "strategic environmental assessment" (SEA), "cumulative effect assessment" (CEA), and "environmental (or ecological) risk assessment" (ERA). Addressing the need for a conceptual "umbrella" for the fragmented approaches, a generic framework for environmental assessment is proposed: cumulative effects of offshore activities (CUMULEO). CUMULEO builds on the principle that activities cause pressures that may lead to adverse effects on the ecosystem. Basic elements and variables are defined that can be used consistently throughout sequential decision-making levels and diverse methodological implementations. This enables environmental assessment to start at a high strategic level (i.e., plan and/or program level), resulting in early environmental awareness and subsequently more informed, efficient, and focused project-level assessments, which has clear benefits for both industry and government. Its main strengths are simplicity, transparency, flexibility (allowing the use of both qualitative and quantitative data), and visualization, making it a powerful framework to support discussions with experts, stakeholders, and policymakers. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:632-642. © 2015 SETAC.

Maternally transferred dioxin-like compounds can affect the reproductive success of European eel.

Reported concentrations of dioxin-like compounds accumulated in the European eel (Anguilla anguilla) were used to perform a risk assessment for eel larval survival, taking into account a modeled amplification of tissue concentrations with a factor of 1.33 during spawning migration. The calculated concentrations of dioxin-like compounds finally deposited in the eggs were compared with the internal effect concentrations for survival of early life stages of the European eel; these concentrations, by lack of experimental data, were estimated from a sensitivity distribution based on literature data by assuming that eel larvae are among the 10% most sensitive teleost fish species. Given concentrations of dioxin-like contaminants and assuming a relatively high sensitivity, it can be expected that larvae from eggs produced by eel from highly contaminated locations in Europe will experience increased mortality as a result of maternally transferred dioxin-like contaminants. As historical persistent organic pollutant concentrations in eel tissue were higher, this impact must have been stronger in the past. Potential effects of other compounds or effects on the migration, condition, and fertility of the parental animals were not taken into account. It is important to further study the overall impact of contaminants on the reproductive success of the European eel as this may have been underestimated until now.

Compliance of LC50 and NOEC data with Benford's Law: an indication of reliability?

Reliability of research data is essential, especially when potentially far-reaching conclusions will be based on them. This is also, amongst others, the case for ecotoxicological data used in risk assessment. Currently, several approaches are available to classify the reliability of ecotoxicological data. The process of classification, such as using the Klimisch score, is time-consuming and focuses on the application of standardised protocols and the documentation of the study. The presence of irregularities and the integrity of the performed work, however, are not addressed. The present study shows that Benford's Law, based on the occurrence of first digits following a logarithmic scale, can be applied to ecotoxicity test data for identifying irregularities. This approach is already successfully applied in accounting. Benford's Law can be used as reliability indicator, in addition to existing reliability classifications. The law can be used to efficiently trace irregularities in large data sets of interpolated (no) effect concentrations such as LC50s (possibly the result of data manipulation), without having to evaluate the source of each individual record. Application of the law to systems in which large amounts of toxicity data are registered (e.g., European Commission Regulation concerning the Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals) can therefore be valuable.

Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment.

The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO2 levels and related considerations of geological CO2 storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO2 levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO2 levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO2 levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment.

Consequences of stressor-induced changes in species assemblage for biodiversity indicators.

Protection of biodiversity is a major objective in environmental management. However, standard protocols for ecological risk assessments use endpoints that are not directly related to biodiversity. In the present study, the changes in five biodiversity indicators, namely, the Hill, Shannon-Wiener, Simpson's diversity index, AZTI's Marine Benthic Index (AMBI), and Benthic Quality Index (BQI), are calculated in case species experience direct chemical effects. This is done for an uncontaminated situation as well as for situations in which the effect concentration of a certain fraction of species (x%) is exceeded, that is, at the hazardous concentration (HCx) of the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) of the considered community. Results indicate that the response of the biodiversity indicators to concentrations spanning the complete concentration range of the SSD is variable. This response depends mainly on the type of indicator, the species assemblage, and the ratio of the slope of the concentration effect curves of the species and the slope of the SSD. At the HC5, a commonly used threshold in environmental risk assessment, biodiversity indicators, are affected at a marginal level (change is less than 5% in 99.6% of the simulated cases). Based on the results, the HC5 level is likely to be a protective threshold for changes in biodiversity in terms of richness and heterogeneity in the vast majority of the simulated cases (99.6%) for chemicals for which direct effects are dominant.

Development and application of a species sensitivity distribution for temperature-induced mortality in the aquatic environment.

Current European legislation has static water quality objectives for temperature effects, based on the most sensitive species. In the present study a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) for elevated temperatures is developed on the basis of temperature sensitivity data (mortality) of 50 aquatic species. The SSD applies to risk assessment of heat discharges that are localized in space or time. As collected median lethal temperatures (LT50 values) for different species depend on the acclimation temperature, the SSD is also a function of the acclimation temperature. Data from a thermal discharge in The Netherlands are used to show the applicability of the developed SSD in environmental risk assessment. Although restrictions exist in the application of the developed SSD, it is concluded that the SSD approach can be applied to assess the effects of elevated temperature. Application of the concept of SSD to temperature changes allows harmonization of environmental risk assessment for stressors in the aquatic environment. When a synchronization of the assessment methods is achieved, the steps to integration of risks from toxic and nontoxic stressors can be made.