A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease.

Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors1. Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity2-6, climate change7-11, chemical pollution12-14, landscape transformations15-20 and species introductions21. However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host-parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and biodiversity loss could help to reduce the burden of plant, animal and human diseases, especially when coupled with improvements to social and economic determinants of health.

Trade and Deforestation Predict Rat Lungworm Disease, an Invasive-Driven Zoonosis, at Global and Regional Scales.

The introduction of non-native species and deforestation are both important drivers of environmental change that can also facilitate the geographic spread of zoonotic pathogens and increase disease risk in humans. With ongoing trends in globalization and land-use conversions, introduced species and deforestation are ever more likely to pose threats to human health. Here, we used rat lungworm disease, an emerging zoonotic disease caused by Angiostrongylus cantonensis and maintained by invasive rats and snails, to explore how these two forms of environmental change can impact zoonotic disease risk. We used logistic regressions to examine the role of global trade in the introduction of A. cantonensis at a country level and used model estimates to predict the probability of introduction as a function of trade. We then used hurdle-based regression models to examine the association between deforestation and rat lungworm disease in two regions where A. cantonensis is already established: Hawaii and Thailand. At the global scale, we found the trade of horticultural products to be an important driver in the spread of A. cantonensis and that the majority of countries at high risk of future A. cantonensis introduction are islands. At country scales, we found deforestation to increase the per-capita risk of A. cantonensis exposure in Hawaii and Thailand. Our study provides a preliminary view of the associations between species introductions, deforestation, and risk of A. cantonensis exposure in people. Better understanding how these two widespread and overlapping forms of environmental change affect human health can inform international biosecurity protocols, invasive species management, and land-use policies.

Projected losses of ecosystem services in the US disproportionately affect non-white and lower-income populations.

Addressing how ecosystem services (ES) are distributed among groups of people is critical for making conservation and environmental policy-making more equitable. Here, we evaluate the distribution and equity of changes in ES benefits across demographic and socioeconomic groups in the United States (US) between 2020 and 2100. Specifically, we use land cover and population projections to model potential shifts in the supply, demand, and benefits of the following ES: provision of clean air, protection against a vector-borne disease (West Nile virus), and crop pollination. Across the US, changes in ES benefits are unevenly distributed among socioeconomic and demographic groups and among rural and urban communities, but are relatively uniform across geographic regions. In general, non-white, lower-income, and urban populations disproportionately bear the burden of declines in ES benefits. This is largely driven by the conversion of forests and wetlands to cropland and urban land cover in counties where these populations are expected to grow. In these locations, targeted land use policy interventions are required to avoid exacerbating inequalities already present in the US.

Seasonal and spatial variation in Toxoplasma gondii contamination in soil in urban public spaces in California, United States.

BACKGROUND: Toxoplasma gondii is a zoonotic parasite that can have severe implications for human health. Acutely infected cats shed environmentally resistant T. gondii oocysts in their faeces that contaminate soil, and soil can serve as a reservoir of infection for humans. Free-roaming domestic cats are thought to play an important role in environmental contamination with T. gondii, but few studies have directly measured the direct contribution of free-roaming cats to T. gondii in soil. METHODS: Our goals were to determine whether T. gondii soil contamination occurs in public areas with free-roaming cat colonies in central California and examine spatial and temporal variation in soil contamination. We initially performed spiking experiments to compare the limit of T. gondii detection in soil using three conventional nested PCR assays and one real-time quantitative PCR. The nested PCR targeting the internal transcribed spacer (ITS-1) of the small subunit ribosomal RNA was the most sensitive assay, with a limit of detection between 20 and 200 oocysts per gram of soil. We applied the ITS1 PCR assay on soil from sites in city and state parks, public playgrounds and community gardens in central California, USA. Samples were collected during spring, summer and fall and in sites located along the coast and inland. RESULTS: We detected and sequence-confirmed T. gondii in 5.6% of all of our soil sub-samples, but with large seasonal and spatial variation in soil contamination: we only detected T. gondii during fall and only in coastal sites (44.3% soil prevalence), despite similar sampling intensity across space and time. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that free-roaming cat colonies are an important source of T. gondii in spaces where people recreate and grow food and that soil contamination is highly seasonal and spatially variable. Management of free-roaming cats could prevent T. gondii infections by reducing environmental contamination with this zoonotic pathogen.

Potential public health benefits from cat eradications on islands.

Cats (Felis catus) are reservoirs of several pathogens that affect humans, including Toxoplasma gondii. Infection of pregnant women with T. gondii can cause ocular and neurological lesions in newborns, and congenital toxoplasmosis has been associated with schizophrenia, epilepsy, movement disorders, and Alzheimer's disease. We compared seroprevalence of T. gondii and risk factors in people on seven islands in Mexico with and without introduced cats to determine the effect of cat eradication and cat density on exposure to T. gondii. Seroprevalence was zero on an island that never had cats and 1.8% on an island where cats were eradicated in 2000. Seroprevalence was significantly higher (12-26%) on the five islands with cats, yet it did not increase across a five-fold range of cat density. Having cats near households, being male and spending time on the mainland were significant risk factors for T. gondii seroprevalence among individuals, whereas eating shellfish was protective. Our results suggest that cats are an important source of T. gondii on islands, and eradicating, but not controlling, introduced cats from islands could benefit human health.

Environmental transmission of Toxoplasma gondii: Oocysts in water, soil and food.

Toxoplasma gondii is a zoonotic protozoan parasite that can cause morbidity and mortality in humans, domestic animals, and terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. The environmentally robust oocyst stage of T. gondii is fundamentally critical to the parasite's success, both in terms of its worldwide distribution as well as the extensive range of infected intermediate hosts. Despite the limited definitive host species (domestic and wild felids), infections have been reported on every continent, and in terrestrial as well as aquatic environments. The remarkable resistance of the oocyst wall enables dissemination of T. gondii through watersheds and ecosystems, and long-term persistence in diverse foods such as shellfish and fresh produce. Here, we review the key attributes of oocyst biophysical properties that confer their ability to disseminate and survive in the environment, as well as the epidemiological dynamics of oocyst sources including domestic and wild felids. This manuscript further provides a comprehensive review of the pathways by which T. gondii oocysts can infect animals and people through the environment, including in contaminated foods, water or soil. We conclude by identifying critical control points for reducing risk of exposure to oocysts as well as opportunities for future synergies and new directions for research aimed at reducing the burden of oocyst-borne toxoplasmosis in humans, domestic animals, and wildlife.

Estimating Burdens of Neglected Tropical Zoonotic Diseases on Islands with Introduced Mammals.

Many neglected tropical zoonotic pathogens are maintained by introduced mammals, and on islands the most common introduced species are rodents, cats, and dogs. Management of introduced mammals, including control or eradication of feral populations, which is frequently done for ecological restoration, could also reduce or eliminate the pathogens these animals carry. Understanding the burden of these zoonotic diseases is crucial for quantifying the potential public health benefits of introduced mammal management. However, epidemiological data are only available from a small subset of islands where these introduced mammals co-occur with people. We examined socioeconomic and climatic variables as predictors for disease burdens of angiostrongyliasis, leptospirosis, toxoplasmosis, toxocariasis, and rabies from 57 islands or island countries. We found strong correlates of disease burden for leptospirosis, Toxoplasma gondii infection, angiostrongyliasis, and toxocariasis with more than 50% of the variance explained, and an average of 57% (range = 32-95%) predictive accuracy on out-of-sample data. We used these relationships to provide estimates of leptospirosis incidence and T. gondii seroprevalence infection on islands where nonnative rodents and cats are present. These predicted estimates of disease burden could be used in an initial assessment of whether the costs of managing introduced mammal reservoirs might be less than the costs of perpetual treatment of these diseases on islands.