Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission: a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization.

Mathematical models within the Ross-Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 77 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of 15 criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared with the Ross-Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parametrizing such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesize the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work.

Heterogeneity of Rift Valley fever virus transmission potential across livestock hosts, quantified through a model-based analysis of host viral load and vector infection.

Quantifying the variation of pathogens' life history traits in multiple host systems is crucial to understand their transmission dynamics. It is particularly important for arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), which are prone to infecting several species of vertebrate hosts. Here, we focus on how host-pathogen interactions determine the ability of host species to transmit a virus to susceptible vectors upon a potentially infectious contact. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral, vector-borne, zoonotic disease, chosen as a case study. The relative contributions of livestock species to RVFV transmission has not been previously quantified. To estimate their potential to transmit the virus over the course of their infection, we 1) fitted a within-host model to viral RNA and infectious virus measures, obtained daily from infected lambs, calves, and young goats, 2) estimated the relationship between vertebrate host infectious titers and probability to infect mosquitoes, and 3) estimated the net infectiousness of each host species over the duration of their infectious periods, taking into account different survival outcomes for lambs. Our results indicate that the efficiency of viral replication, along with the lifespan of infectious particles, could be sources of heterogeneity between hosts. Given available data on RVFV competent vectors, we found that, for similar infectious titers, infection rates in the Aedes genus were on average higher than in the Culex genus. Consequently, for Aedes-mediated infections, we estimated the net infectiousness of lambs to be 2.93 (median) and 3.65 times higher than that of calves and goats, respectively. In lambs, we estimated the overall infectiousness to be 1.93 times higher in individuals which eventually died from the infection than in those recovering. Beyond infectiousness, the relative contributions of host species to transmission depend on local ecological factors, including relative abundances and vector host-feeding preferences. Quantifying these contributions will ultimately help design efficient, targeted, surveillance and vaccination strategies.

Experiences and lessons learned from the real-world implementation of an HIV recent infection testing algorithm in three routine service-delivery settings in Kenya and Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: Testing for recent HIV infection can distinguish recently acquired infection from long-standing infections. Given current interest in the implementation of recent infection testing algorithms (RITA), we report our experiences in implementing a RITA in three pilot studies and highlight important issues to consider when conducting recency testing in routine settings. METHODS: We applied a RITA, incorporating a limited antigen (LAg) avidity assay, in different routine HIV service-delivery settings in 2018: antenatal care clinics in Siaya County, Kenya, HIV testing and counselling facilities in Nairobi, Kenya, and female sex workers clinics in Zimbabwe. Discussions were conducted with study coordinators, laboratory leads, and facility-based stakeholders to evaluate experiences and lessons learned in relation to implementing recency testing. RESULTS: In Siaya County 10/426 (2.3%) of women testing HIV positive were classified as recent, compared to 46/530 (8.7%) of women and men in Nairobi and 33/313 (10.5%) of female sex workers in Zimbabwe. Across the study setting, we observed differences in acceptance, transport and storage of dried blood spot (DBS) or venous blood samples. For example, the acceptance rate when testing venous blood was 11% lower than when using DBS. Integrating our study into existing services ensured a quick start of the study and kept the amount of additional resources required low. From a laboratory perspective, the LAg avidity assay was initially difficult to operationalise, but developing a network of laboratories and experts to work together helped to improve this. A challenge that was not overcome was the returning of RITA test results to clients. This was due to delays in laboratory testing, the need for multiple test results to satisfy the RITA, difficulties in aligning clinic visits, and participants opting not to return for test results. CONCLUSION: We completed three pilot studies using HIV recency testing based on a RITA in Kenya and Zimbabwe. The main lessons we learned were related to sample collection and handling, LAg avidity assay performance, integration into existing services and returning of test results to participants. Our real-world experience could provide helpful guidance to people currently working on the implementation of HIV recency testing in sub-Saharan Africa.

Effect of adding azithromycin to the antimalarials used for seasonal malaria chemoprevention on the nutritional status of African children.

OBJECTIVES: Mass administration of azithromycin has reduced mortality in children in sub-Saharan Africa but its mode of action is not well characterised. A recent trial found that azithromycin given alongside seasonal malaria chemoprevention was not associated with a reduction in mortality or hospital admissions in young children. We investigated the effect of azithromycin on the nutritional status of children enrolled in this study. METHODS: A total of 19 578 children in Burkina Faso and Mali were randomised to receive either azithromycin or placebo alongside seasonal malaria chemoprevention with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine monthly for three malaria transmission seasons (2014-2016). After each transmission season, anthropometric measurements were collected from approximately 4000 randomly selected children (2000 per country) at a cross-sectional survey and used to derive nutritional status indicators. Binary and continuous outcomes between treatment arms were compared by Poisson and linear regression. RESULTS: Nutritional status among children was poor in both countries with evidence of acute and chronic malnutrition (24.9-33.3% stunted, 15.8-32.0% underweight, 7.2-26.4% wasted). There was a suggestion of improvement in nutritional status in Burkina Faso and deterioration in Mali over the study period. At the end of each malaria transmission season, nutritional status of children did not differ between treatment arms (seasonal malaria chemoprevention plus azithromycin or placebo) in either the intention-to-treat or per-protocol analyses (only children with at least three cycles of SMC in the current intervention year). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of azithromycin to seasonal malaria chemoprevention did not result in an improvement of nutritional outcomes in children in Burkina Faso and Mali.

OBJECTIFS: L'administration massive d'azithromycine a réduit la mortalité infantile en Afrique subsaharienne mais son mode d'action n'est pas bien caractérisé. Un essai récent a révélé que l'azithromycine administrée parallèlement à la chimioprévention du paludisme saisonnier n'était pas associée à une réduction de la mortalité ou des hospitalisations chez les jeunes enfants. Nous avons étudié l'effet de l'azithromycine sur l'état nutritionnel des enfants inscrits à cette étude. MÉTHODES: 19.578 enfants au Burkina Faso et au Mali ont été randomisés pour recevoir soit de l'azithromycine soit un placebo parallèlement à une chimioprévention du paludisme saisonnier avec du sulfadoxine-pyriméthamine plus de l'amodiaquine par mois pendant trois saisons de transmission du paludisme (2014-2016). Après chaque saison de transmission, des mesures anthropométriques ont été recueillies auprès d'environ 4.000 enfants sélectionnés au hasard (2.000 par pays) lors d'une enquête transversale et utilisées pour dériver des indicateurs de l'état nutritionnel. Les résultats binaires et continus entre les bras de traitement ont été comparés par la régression linéaire et de Poisson. RÉSULTATS: L'état nutritionnel des enfants était médiocre dans les deux pays avec des signes de malnutrition aiguë et chronique (24,9 à 33,3% de retard de croissance, 15,8 à 32,0% d'insuffisance pondérale, 7,2 à 26,4% d'émaciation). Il a été suggéré une amélioration de l'état nutritionnel au Burkina Faso et une détérioration au Mali au cours de la période d'étude. A la fin de chaque saison de transmission du paludisme, l'état nutritionnel des enfants ne différait pas entre les bras de traitement (chimioprévention contre le paludisme saisonnier plus azithromycine ou placebo) dans les analyses en intention de traiter ou selon le protocole (seulement les enfants avec au moins trois cycles de chimioprévention dans l'année d'intervention en cours). CONCLUSIONS: L'ajout d'azithromycine à la chimioprévention du paludisme saisonnier n'a pas entraîné d'amélioration des résultats nutritionnels chez les enfants au Burkina Faso et au Mali.