Water footprint and virtual water flows from the Global South: Foundations for sustainable agriculture in periods of drought.

Freshwater availability has decreased alarmingly worldwide, with agriculture playing a vital role in this trend. The assessment of the agricultural water footprint (WFagricultural) and virtual water flows (VWF) is fundamental not only in local water resources management and protection, but also in our understanding of the synergies between local water consumption and global markets. Thus, the WFagricultural - broken down into its components (blue, green, and gray) - of the leading 21 crops (grouped in fruit, legumes, cereals, and vegetables), grown in four basins with the most significant agricultural activity in central Chile was determined, estimated in two consecutive years 2017-2018. In addition, due to their great importance in exports, VWFs were assessed, establishing connections according to their origins and destinations. The results show that the green and gray water footprints increased significantly in the south-central basins, while blue water consumption increased in the basins of the central zone, reflecting an evident WFagricultural transition in accord with latitude and climate conditions. Furthermore, VWF showed an annual increase of 44 %, in about 116 destinations, with Asia, Europe, and North America being the preferred destinations, with annual variations of VWFblue- gray associated with increases in exports of apples, cherries, grapes, blueberries, and walnuts, market preferences and growing areas. The present study is an initial step toward sustainable agriculture in a commodity exporting country, one that is relevant in the exploitation of virtual water yet faces severe water deficit problems, distribution, and local water policies. Therefore, contributing to encouraging the efficiency and value of water in the process of a new institutional framework.

Recent wildfires in Central Chile: Detecting links between burned areas and population exposure in the wildland urban interface.

Wildfires are gaining importance in the Mediterranean regions owing to climate change and landscape changes due to the increasing closeness between urban areas and forests prone to wildfires. We analysed the dry season wildfire occurrences in the Mediterranean region of Central Chile (32°S-39°30' S) between 2000 and 2017, using satellite images to detect burned areas, their landscape metrics and the land use and covers (vegetal) pre-wildfire, in order to determine the population living in areas that may be affected by wildfires. The existing regulations in western Mediterranean countries (Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy) were used to identify and define the wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas, quantifying the people inhabiting them and estimating the population affected by burned areas from 2001 to 2017. We used the Google Earth Engine to process MODIS products and extract both burned areas and land covers. We detected that 25% of the urban population inhabits WUI areas (i.e. Biobío, Araucanía and Valparaíso regions) where the urban population exposed to burned areas exceeds 40%. Most of the land use and land covers affected by wildfires are anthropogenic land covers, classified as savannas, croplands, evergreen broadleaf forests and woody savannas, representing >70% of the burned areas. Urban areas show only 0.6% of the burned surface from 2001 to 2017. We estimate that 55,680 people are potentially affected by wildfires, and 50% of them are in just one administrative region. These results show the imperative need for public policies as a regulating force for establishing WUI areas with the purpose of identifying wildfire risk in urban areas, such as establishing prevention methods as firewalls and prescribed fires.

Understanding agricultural water footprint variability to improve water management in Chile.

Understanding water consumption is crucial for sustainable management of water resources. Under climate change scenarios that project highly variable water availability, the need for public policies that assure efficiency and equity in water resources is increasing. This work analyzes the case of the Cachapoal River agricultural basin (34°S 71°W), which presents temperature increases and a precipitation deficit, with a drought period that began more than eleven years ago having significantly decreased water availability. Water consumption in the basin for food production was determined from the agricultural water footprint (WFagricultural), using the green (WFgreen), blue (WFblue) and gray water footprint (WFgray) indicators, which were measured in the upper, middle and lower basin under conditions of climate variability (dry, wet and normal years). The greatest WFagricultural was established in the dry year, with a total of 18,221 m3 t-1, followed by 15,902 m3 t-1 in the wet year and 14,091 m3 t-1 in the normal year. Likewise, the greatest WFblue and WFgray, of 12,000 m3 t-1 and 4934 m3 t-1, respectively, were also observed in the dry year. The greatest WFgreen, 2000 m3 t-1, was calculated for a normal year. The 63% of agricultural area of the basin was covered by avocado (Persea americana), olive (Olea europaea), corn (Zea mays) and grape (Vitis sp) crops, which presented the greatest WFagricultural. This water footprint data provides a quantitative basis for the assessment of water consumption and degradation, considering agricultural production and its multiple variables. The success of the application of these results lies in the use of indicators to understand change processes and complement future water allocation plans with more rational water management models.

Human-environmental drivers and impacts of the globally extreme 2017 Chilean fires.

In January 2017, hundreds of fires in Mediterranean Chile burnt more than 5000 km2, an area nearly 14 times the 40-year mean. We contextualize these fires in terms of estimates of global fire intensity using MODIS satellite record, and provide an overview of the climatic factors and recent changes in land use that led to the active fire season and estimate the impact of fire emissions to human health. The primary fire activity in late January coincided with extreme fire weather conditions including all-time (1979-2017) daily records for the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and maximum temperature, producing some of the most energetically intense fire events on Earth in the last 15-years. Fire activity was further enabled by a warm moist growing season in 2016 that interrupted an intense drought that started in 2010. The land cover in this region had been extensively modified, with less than 20% of the original native vegetation remaining, and extensive plantations of highly flammable exotic Pinus and Eucalyptus species established since the 1970s. These plantations were disproportionally burnt (44% of the burned area) in 2017, and associated with the highest fire severities, as part of an increasing trend of fire extent in plantations over the past three decades. Smoke from the fires exposed over 9.5 million people to increased concentrations of particulate air pollution, causing an estimated 76 premature deaths and 209 additional admissions to hospital for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. This study highlights that Mediterranean biogeographic regions with expansive Pinus and Eucalyptus plantations and associated rural depopulation are vulnerable to intense wildfires with wide ranging social, economic, and environmental impacts, which are likely to become more frequent due to longer and more extreme wildfire seasons.

Megafires in Chile 2017: Monitoring multiscale environmental impacts of burned ecosystems.

During the summer of 2017, several megafires in South-Central Chile burned down forest plantations, native forests, shrublands and human settlements. National authorities identified the relevant effects of the wildfires on infrastructure and ecosystems. However, other indirect effects such as the risk of flooding or, increased air pollution were not assessed. The present study assesses: i) the geographic characterization of wildfires, ii) amount of damage to ecosystems and the severity of wildfires, iii) the effects of megafires on air quality in nearby and distant urban areas, and iv) identification of cities potentially exposed to landslides and flooding. We ran remote sensing analyses based on the Normalized Burn Ratio taken from Landsat imagery, "active fires" from MODIS, and ASTER GDEM. The particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) levels measured on 34 Chilean's municipalities were correlated with the burning area/distance ratio by Spearman correlation. Socionatural hazards were evaluated using multi-criteria analyses combining proximity to burned areas, severity, potential flow of water and sediments as indicated by the Digital Elevation Model, drainage networks and the location of human settlements. 91 burned areas were identified, covering 529,794 ha. The most affected ecosystems were forest plantations and native shrublands. We found significant correlations between burned area/distance ratios and PM2.5 and PM10 levels, leading to increased levels over the Chilean air quality standard in the most populated cities. 37 human settlements were at increased risk of landslides and flooding hazards after fires and eleven could now be characterized as dangerously exposed. The 2017 wildfires in Chile have had an impact at both a small and large scale, with far-reaching air pollutants dispersing and affecting >74% of the Chilean population. The impact of the wildfires was also extended over time, creating future potential for landslides and flooding, with the risk increasing in rainy seasons.

Monitoring the effects of land cover change on the supply of ecosystem services in an urban region: A study of Santiago-Valparaíso, Chile.

Mankind's quest for well-being results in continuous pressure to transform landscapes, with said transformation driven by land use changes, urbanization, production activity, and protective measures in addition to climate variability and other environmental drivers. The relationship between anthropogenic landscape changes and the provision of ecosystem services (ES) is a topic of increasing interest in Latin America. In Chile, land cover changes due to increased urbanization and forestry, and expansion of agricultural land, in addition to conservation initiatives as a part of land planning, have been intensive in the last few decades. In this study, the effects of anthropogenic landscape changes on the supply of ES were analyzed for the urban region of Santiago-Valparaiso (Chile) using a method based on expert consultation and land cover change assessment. A pool of experts scored the potential of specific land covers to provide certain ES. The results enabled calculation and mapping of changes in the potential of the landscape to supply ES. The aforementioned changes over a period of 15 years were evaluated. The results indicate a tenuous balance between positive and negative changes to the supply of ES derived from land cover changes. Understanding and reporting how these processes occur in urban regions contributes to the conservation of valuable landscapes through spatial planning tools, especially in areas close to housing developments and sensitive ecosystems.

A Heat Vulnerability Index: Spatial Patterns of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity for Santiago de Chile.

Climate change will worsen the high levels of urban vulnerability in Latin American cities due to specific environmental stressors. Some impacts of climate change, such as high temperatures in urban environments, have not yet been addressed through adaptation strategies, which are based on poorly supported data. These impacts remain outside the scope of urban planning. New spatially explicit approaches that identify highly vulnerable urban areas and include specific adaptation requirements are needed in current urban planning practices to cope with heat hazards. In this paper, a heat vulnerability index is proposed for Santiago, Chile. The index was created using a GIS-based spatial information system and was constructed from spatially explicit indexes for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity levels derived from remote sensing data and socio-economic information assessed via principal component analysis (PCA). The objective of this study is to determine the levels of heat vulnerability at local scales by providing insights into these indexes at the intra city scale. The results reveal a spatial pattern of heat vulnerability with strong variations among individual spatial indexes. While exposure and adaptive capacities depict a clear spatial pattern, sensitivity follows a complex spatial distribution. These conditions change when examining PCA results, showing that sensitivity is more robust than exposure and adaptive capacity. These indexes can be used both for urban planning purposes and for proposing specific policies and measures that can help minimize heat hazards in highly dynamic urban areas. The proposed methodology can be applied to other Latin American cities to support policy making.