Spatial spread of the Hantavirus infection.

The spatial propagation of Hantavirus-infected mice is considered a serious threat for public health. We analyze the spatial spread of the infected mice by including diffusion in the stage-dependent model for Hantavirus infection recently proposed by Reinoso and de la Rubia [Phys. Rev. E 87, 042706 (2013)]. We consider a general scenario in which mice propagate in fronts from their refugia to the surroundings and find an expression for the speed of the front of infected mice. We also introduce a depletion time that measures the time scale for an appreciable impoverishment of the environment conditions and show how this new situation may change the spreading of the infection significantly.

Stage-dependent model for Hantavirus infection: the effect of the initial infection-free period.

We propose a stage-dependent model with constant delay to study the effect of the initial infection-free period on the spread of Hantavirus infection in rodents. We analyze the model under various extreme weather conditions, in the context of the El Niño-La Niña Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and show how these variations determine the evolution of the system significantly. When the scenario corresponds to El Niño, the system presents a demographic explosion and a delayed outbreak of Hantavirus infection, whereas if the scenario is the opposite there is a rapid decline of the population, but with a possible persistence period that may imply a considerable risk for public health, a fact that is in agreement with available field data. We use the model to simulate a historical evolution that resembles the processes that occurred in the 1990s.

Patterns of phase-dependent spiral wave attenuation in excitable media.

We show that introducing periodic planar fronts with long excitation duration can lead to spiral attenuation. The attenuation occurs periodically over cycles of several planar fronts, forming a variety of complex spatiotemporal patterns. We find that these attenuation patterns occur only at specific phases of the descending fronts relative to the rotational phase of the spiral. These patterns fall into two general classes, each defined by a specific expression for the number of attenuated spirals per cycle of planar fronts, and represented by a structured diagram in parameter space. The spiral attenuation patterns we observe remain stable in time and do not change during the evolution of the system.

Patterns of spiral wave attenuation by low-frequency periodic planar fronts.

There is evidence that spiral waves and their breakup underlie mechanisms related to a wide spectrum of phenomena ranging from spatially extended chemical reactions to fatal cardiac arrhythmias [A. T. Winfree, The Geometry of Biological Time (Springer-Verlag, New York, 2001); J. Schutze, O. Steinbock, and S. C. Muller, Nature 356, 45 (1992); S. Sawai, P. A. Thomason, and E. C. Cox, Nature 433, 323 (2005); L. Glass and M. C. Mackey, From Clocks to Chaos: The Rhythms of Life (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1988); R. A. Gray et al., Science 270, 1222 (1995); F. X. Witkowski et al., Nature 392, 78 (1998)]. Once initiated, spiral waves cannot be suppressed by periodic planar fronts, since the domains of the spiral waves grow at the expense of the fronts [A. N. Zaikin and A. M. Zhabotinsky, Nature 225, 535 (1970); A. T. Stamp, G. V. Osipov, and J. J. Collins, Chaos 12, 931 (2002); I. Aranson, H. Levine, and L. Tsimring, Phys. Rev. Lett. 76, 1170 (1996); K. J. Lee, Phys. Rev. Lett. 79, 2907 (1997); F. Xie, Z. Qu, J. N. Weiss, and A. Garfinkel, Phys. Rev. E 59, 2203 (1999)]. Here, we show that introducing periodic planar waves with long excitation duration and a period longer than the rotational period of the spiral can lead to spiral attenuation. The attenuation is not due to spiral drift and occurs periodically over cycles of several fronts, forming a variety of complex spatiotemporal patterns, which fall into two distinct general classes. Further, we find that these attenuation patterns only occur at specific phases of the descending fronts relative to the rotational phase of the spiral. We demonstrate these dynamics of phase-dependent spiral attenuation by performing numerical simulations of wave propagation in the excitable medium of myocardial cells. The effect of phase-dependent spiral attenuation we observe can lead to a general approach to spiral control in physical and biological systems with relevance for medical applications.

System-size resonance in a binary attractor neural network.

System size resonance (SSR) is a phenomenon in which the response of a system is optimal for a certain finite size, but poorer as the size goes to zero or infinity. In order to show SSR effects in binary attractor neural networks, we study the response of a network, in the ferromagnetic phase, to an external, time-dependent stimulus. Under the presence of such a stimulus, the network shows SSR, as is demonstrated by the measure of the signal amplification both analytically and by simulation.

Outbreaks of Hantavirus induced by seasonality.

Using a model for rodent population dynamics, we study outbreaks of Hantavirus infection induced by the alternation of seasons. Neither season by itself satisfies the environmental requirements for propagation of the disease. This result can be explained in terms of the seasonal interruption of the relaxation process of the mouse population toward equilibrium, and may shed light on the reported connection between climate variations and outbreaks of the disease.

Extinction in population dynamics.

We study a generic reaction-diffusion model for single-species population dynamics that includes reproduction, death, and competition. The population is assumed to be confined in a refuge beyond which conditions are so harsh that they lead to certain extinction. Standard continuum mean field models in one dimension yield a critical refuge length L(c) such that a population in a refuge larger than this is assured survival. Herein we extend the model to take into account the discreteness and finiteness of the population, which leads us to a stochastic description. We present a particular critical criterion for likely extinction, namely, that the standard deviation of the population be equal to the mean. According to this criterion, we find that while survival can no longer be guaranteed for any refuge size, for sufficiently weak competition one can make the refuge large enough (certainly larger than L(c)) to cause extinction to be unlikely. However, beyond a certain value of the competition rate parameter it is no longer possible to escape a likelihood of extinction even in an infinite refuge. These unavoidable fluctuations therefore have a severe impact on refuge design issues.

Effects of internal fluctuations on the spreading of Hantavirus.

We study the spread of Hantavirus over a host population of deer mice using a population dynamics model. We show that taking into account the internal fluctuations in the mouse population due to its discrete character strongly alters the behavior of the system. In addition to the familiar transition present in the deterministic model, the inclusion of internal fluctuations leads to the emergence of an additional deterministically hidden transition. We determine parameter values that lead to maximal propagation of the disease and discuss some implications for disease prevention policies.

Coherence enhancement in nonlinear systems subject to multiplicative Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise.

We show that for two biologically relevant models with self-sustained oscillations under the action of a multiplicative Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, their coherence response behaves nonmonotonically with the process correlation time. There is a correlation time for which the quality factor is optimized. This phenomenon is a consequence of the interplay between the correlation time and the system's periodicity. This relation is evidenced through a power law relation with an exponent close to -1 / 2.

Random Ginzburg-Landau model revisited: reentrant phase transitions.

We analyze the phase diagram of the random Ginzburg-Landau model, where a quenched dichotomous noise affects the control parameter. We show that the system exhibits two types of counterintuitive reentrant second-order phase transitions. In the first case, increasing the coupling drives the system from a disordered to an ordered state and then back to a disordered state. In the second case, increasing the intensity of the quenched noise, the system goes from an ordered phase to a disordered phase and back to an ordered state. We discuss the general mechanism that produces these reentrant phase transitions, showing that it may appear in other physical systems, such as a modification of the spin-1 Blume-Capel model proposed to describe the critical behavior of helium mixtures in a random medium.

Spectrum of parvovirus B19 infection: analysis of an outbreak of 43 cases in Cadiz, Spain.

In the spring of 1993, an epidemic of infection with human parvovirus B19 occurred in Cadiz, Spain. Evaluation of the 43 patients in whom this diagnosis was confirmed revealed four groups of predominant manifestations: (1) hematologic manifestations in six cases (13.9%), including four of aplastic crisis and two of pancytopenia; (2) dermatologic manifestations in 23 cases (53.4%), including 10 of erythema infectiosum and one of erythema multiforme ampullosum; (3) arthralgias/arthritis in nine cases (20.9%), including two with a chronic course; and (4) infection during pregnancy in three cases (7.0%), including two that ended in abortion. Of the 43 patients, 37.2% presented with fever and adenopathies, and these were the only manifestations in two cases. The appearance of clinical disease correlated with modifications in isotype and serum level of specific antibodies to parvovirus B19; the disappearance of IgM antibodies coincided with the resolution of clinical manifestations. Although their presence did not correlate with the course of the disease, the detection of circulating immune complexes in 81.6% of cases supports the possibility that some manifestations were immune mediated.

Influence of the hypercycle on the error threshold: a stochastic approach.

The role of fluctuations on the error threshold of the hypercycle has been studied by a stochastic approach on a very simplified model. For this model, the master equation was derived and its unique steady state calculated. This state implies the extinction of the system. But the actual time necessary to reach the steady state may be astronomically long whereas for times of experimental interest the system could be near some quasi-stationary states. In order to explore this possibility a Gillespie simulation of the stochastic process has been carried out. These quasi-stationary states correspond to the deterministic steady states of the system. The error threshold shifts towards higher values of the quality factor Q. Moreover, information about the fluctuations around the quasi-stationary states is obtained. The results are discussed in relation to the deterministic states.