Ontogeny of movement patterns in naïve grey seal pups inhabiting a complex continental shelf ecosystem.

Most vertebrate offspring must transition from the relative security of parental care (nutrition and protection) to independent foraging. Offspring face many challenges during this critical period, particularly in species where parental care ends at weaning, such as the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus). We studied the development of movement behaviour in naïve grey seal pups from their first trips to sea to about five months of age. Twenty-five (12 males and 13 females) newly-weaned pups were fitted with satellite-linked GPS tags on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada in January 2016. The influence of fixed effects (pup size, sex, week) and the random effect of pup identity on trip characteristics were examined. Movement behaviour was analyzed using a move persistence mixed-effects model. Habitat use was highly variable among individuals and covered much of the geographic distribution of the population. Unlike older juveniles, subadults, and adults in this population, most naïve pups used multiple haulout sites to begin and end trips. There was little evidence of area-restricted search behaviour during trips, suggesting that naïve pups were using an opportunistic foraging tactic that may result in more variable foraging success than that of older, experienced animals. Naïve pups made longer trips with longer haulout durations between them than observed for older greys seals. Males and females differed in some trip characteristics, but sex effects were small over the first few months of life. Offspring size at weaning was not a useful predictor of trip characteristics. Move persistence of grey seal pups was initially high and then decreased over time as individuals gained experience. Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors were influential on the movements of grey seal pups. Greater body length at weaning, longer duration spent on shore after weaning, shallower water column depth, and farther distance from shore were all associated with lower move persistence. Female grey seal pups had lower move persistence than males. Overall, the movements of naïve grey seal pups during the first few months of life were characterized by extensive exploration, but move persistence decreased over time suggesting they may be using an exploration-refinement foraging tactic.

Individual Quality Drives Life History Variation in a Long-Lived Marine Predator.

AbstractIndividual quality and environmental conditions may mask or interact with energetic trade-offs in life history evolution. Deconstructing these sources of variation is especially difficult in long-lived species that are rarely observed on timescales long enough to disentangle these effects. Here, we investigated relative support for variation in female quality and costs of reproduction as factors shaping differences in life history trajectories using a 32-year dataset of repeated reproductive measurements from 273 marked, known-age female gray seals (Halichoerus grypus). We defined individual reproductive investment using two traits, reproductive frequency (a female's probability of breeding) and provisioning performance (offspring weaning mass). Fitted hierarchical Bayesian models identified individual investment relative to conspecifics (over a female's entire life and in three age classes) and subsequently estimated how these investment metrics and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are associated with longevity. Individual differences (i.e., quality) contributed a large portion of the variance in reproductive traits. Females that consistently invest well in their offspring relative to other females survive longer. The best-supported model estimated survival as a function of age class-specific provisioning performance, where late-life performance was particularly variable and had the greatest impact on survival, possibly indicating individual variation in senescence. There was no evidence to support a trade-off in reproductive performance and survival at the individual level. Overall, these results suggest that in gray seals, individual quality is a stronger driver in life history variation than individual strategies resulting from energetic trade-offs.

Large offspring have enhanced lifetime reproductive success: Long-term carry-over effects of weaning size in gray seals (Halichoerus grypus).

An individual's size in early stages of life may be an important source of individual variation in lifetime reproductive performance, as size effects on ontogenetic development can have cascading physiological and behavioral consequences throughout life. Here, we explored how size-at-young influences subsequent reproductive performance in gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) using repeated encounter and reproductive data on a marked sample of 363 females that were measured for length after weaning, at ~4 weeks of age, and eventually recruited to the Sable Island breeding colony. Two reproductive traits were considered: provisioning performance (mass of weaned offspring), modeled using linear mixed effects models; and reproductive frequency (rate at which a female returns to breed), modeled using mixed effects multistate mark-recapture models. Mothers with the longest weaning lengths produced pups 8 kg heavier and were 20% more likely to breed in a given year than mothers with the shortest lengths. Correlation in body lengths between weaning and adult life stages, however, is weak: Longer pups do not grow to be longer than average adults. Thus, covariation between weaning length and future reproductive performance appears to be a carry-over effect, where the size advantages afforded in early juvenile stages may allow enhanced long-term performance in adulthood.

Genetic association with boldness and maternal performance in a free-ranging population of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus).

Individual variation in quantitative traits clearly influence many ecological and evolutionary processes. Moderate to high heritability estimates of personality and life-history traits suggest some level of genetic control over these traits. Yet, we know very little of the underlying genetic architecture of phenotypic variation in the wild. In this study, we used a candidate gene approach to investigate the association of genetic variants with repeated measures of boldness and maternal performance traits (weaning mass and lactation duration) collected over an 11- and 28-year period, respectively, in a free-ranging population of grey seals on Sable Island National Park Reserve, Canada. We isolated and re-sequenced five genes: dopamine receptor D4 (DRD4), serotonin transporter (SERT), oxytocin receptor (OXTR), and melanocortin receptors 1 (MC1R) and 5 (MC5R). We discovered single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in each gene; and, after accounting for loci in linkage disequilibrium and filtering due to missing data, we were able to test for genotype-phenotype relationships at seven loci in three genes (DRD4, SERT, and MC1R). We tested for association between these loci and traits of 180 females having extreme shy-bold phenotypes using mixed-effects models. One locus within SERT was significantly associated with boldness (effect size = 0.189) and a second locus within DRD4 with weaning mass (effect size = 0.232). Altogether, genotypes explained 6.52-13.66% of total trait variation. Our study substantiates SERT and DRD4 as important determinants of behaviour, and provides unique insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying maternal performance variation in a marine predator.

Exploring causal components of plasticity in grey seal birthdates: Effects of intrinsic traits, demography, and climate.

Change in breeding phenology is often a response to environmental forcing, but less is known of the mechanism underlying such changes and their fitness consequences. Here, we report on changes in the breeding phenology from a 27-year longitudinal study (1991-2017) of individually marked, known-aged grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada. We used generalized linear mixed models and a 3-step process to develop a model that includes interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic covariates and to test hypotheses about the influence of fixed factors (maternal age, parity, previous reproductive success, pup sex, colony density, Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Sea Surface Temperature) and a random factor (female identity) on parturition dates. We also examined the consequences of the shift in birthdates on maternal energy allocation in offspring as measured by pup weaning mass. Birthdates were known for 2,768 pups of 660 known-age females. For 494 females with ≥2 parturition dates, repeatability as measured by the intraclass correlation was high (mean = 0.66). 87% of the variation in birthdates was explained by a mixed-effects model that included intrinsic and extrinsic fixed effects. Most of the explained variation was associated with the random effect of female identity. Parity was the most important intrinsic fixed effect, with inexperienced mothers giving birth later in the season than multiparous females. Over almost 3 decades, mean birthdates advanced by 15 days. The mixed model with intrinsic effects and population size, the detrended AMO from the previous year and mean NAO in the previous 3 years explained 80% of the variation with 21% of variation from the fixed effects. Both primiparous and multiparous individuals responded to the climate forcing, and there was strong evidence for heterogeneity in the response. Nevertheless, the shift in birthdates did not impact pup weaning mass.

Variation in individual reproductive performance amplified with population size in a long-lived carnivore.

Individual variation in reproductive ability is a key component of natural selection within populations, driving the evolution of life histories and population responses to changing environmental conditions. Evidence that population density affects individual-level fitness in wild populations is limited, particularly for long-lived animals, which are difficult to observe on a biologically relevant scale. We tested for individual heterogeneity in reproductive performance in female grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) using 35 yr of mark-resighting data at Sable Island, Canada (43.93° N 59.91° W). We used Bayesian generalized linear mixed-effect models and multistate open robust design mark-resight models to investigate whether population size negatively influences individual reproductive performance. We measured reproductive performance in two ways: reproductive frequency (the probability of returning to the island to breed) and annual provisioning performance (the probability of successfully weaning a pup given a female bred). Sighting histories of 1,655 known-aged females with a total of 22,961 pupping events were used for analysis. After accounting for effects of female age, parity, and random year effects, we found that both provisioning performance and reproductive frequency demonstrated a strong, positive correlation with population size. Among-individual variance in reproductive traits and responses to population size indicated considerable heterogeneity in overall reproductive performance. As population size grew, "robust" females increased their reproductive performance more than their more "frail" conspecifics in both reproductive traits, resulting in an amplification of differences among individuals. Consequently, simulations from posterior distributions revealed a large fitness consequence of heterogeneity in this population, with "frail" individuals having 47.1% fewer successful pups than more "robust" females (mean reproductive output ± SD: 9.12 ± 3.77 pups for frail individuals, 16.97 ± 2.94 for robust individuals). Repeatability of overall reproductive performance across environments indicates individual quality may be more influential to lifetime reproductive success than costs associated with reproductive investment. This quantification of relative fitness and its dynamics is crucial to understanding broad evolutionary processes in natural populations.

Connectivity, persistence, and loss of high abundance areas of a recovering marine fish population in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.

In the early 1990s, the Northwest Atlantic Ocean underwent a fisheries-driven ecosystem shift. Today, the iconic cod (Gadus morhua) remains at low levels, while Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus) has been increasing since the mid-2000s, concomitant with increasing interest from the fishing industry. Currently, our knowledge about halibut ecology is limited, and the lack of recovery in other collapsed groundfish populations has highlighted the danger of overfishing local concentrations. Here, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal approach to model the spatial structure of juvenile Atlantic halibut over 36 years and three fisheries management regimes using three model parameters to characterize the resulting spatiotemporal abundance structure: persistence (similarity of spatial structure over time), connectivity (coherence of temporal pattern over space), and spatial variance (variation across the seascape). Two areas of high juvenile abundance persisted through three decades whereas two in the northeast are now diminished, despite the increased abundance and landings throughout the management units. The persistent areas overlap with full and seasonal area closures, which may act as refuges from fishing. Connectivity was estimated to be 250 km, an order of magnitude less than the distance assumed by the definition of the Canadian management units (~2,000 km). The underlying question of whether there are distinct populations within the southern stock unit cannot be answered with this model, but the smaller ~250 km scale of coherent temporal patterns suggests more complex population structure than previously thought, which should be taken into consideration by fishery management.

Offspring size at weaning affects survival to recruitment and reproductive performance of primiparous gray seals.

Offspring size affects survival and subsequent reproduction in many organisms. However, studies of offspring size in large mammals are often limited to effects on juveniles because of the difficulty of following individuals to maturity. We used data from a long-term study of individually marked gray seals (Halichoerus grypus; Fabricius, 1791) to test the hypothesis that larger offspring have higher survival to recruitment and are larger and more successful primiparous mothers than smaller offspring. Between 1998 and 2002, 1182 newly weaned female pups were branded with unique permanent marks on Sable Island, Canada. Each year through 2012, all branded females returning to the breeding colony were identified in weekly censuses and a subset were captured and measured. Females that survived were significantly longer offspring than those not sighted, indicating size-selective mortality between weaning and recruitment. The probability of female survival to recruitment varied among cohorts and increased nonlinearly with body mass at weaning. Beyond 51.5 kg (mean population weaning mass) weaning mass did not influence the probability of survival. The probability of female survival to recruitment increased monotonically with body length at weaning. Body length at primiparity was positively related to her body length and mass at weaning. Three-day postpartum mass (proxy for birth mass) of firstborn pups was also positively related to body length of females when they were weaned. However, females that were longer or heavier when they were weaned did not wean heavier firstborn offspring.