An optimized model for substitution of expatriate workforce in a Gulf-Council country: the Kuwaiti case.

"This article is based on data from a research project carried out during 1992-1994 to achieve a replacement mechanism and a model for the substitution of expatriate labour by Kuwaiti nationals. Since Kuwait can readily enforce its Kuwaitization policy in the public sector, the presented model aims at reducing the share of non-Kuwaitis in that sector over five years. Published data on distribution of the workforce in the public sector by nationality indicate that the non-Kuwaiti share of the total workforce is 38 per cent. The majority of [migrant] workers are unskilled or semi-skilled and engaged in production, commerce and services. Sex ratios are unbalanced and workers exhibit a high rate of literacy...." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)

Estimation of fecundity and secondary sterility from survey data on birth intervals in Egypt.

Data on the last closed and open birth intervals have been used to ascertain the current potential of childbearing for women in terms of estimating fecundity and secondary sterility by age, residence, and educational subgroup. Under the assumption that after a specific period from the last birth a certain proportion of women become secondarily sterile, we propose and apply an inflated model of open birth interval to obtain the proportion of women who are secondarily sterile. The data used for the analysis are extracted from the Egyptian Fertility Survey conducted in 1980.

PIP: Fecundity is estimated from last closed birth interval (LCBI) data using a steady state model. An inflated model of theopen birth interval (OPI) is derived on the assumption that the birth interval from first birth is marked by a certain proportion of women who become secondarily sterile or choose to be so to avoid further births. Biases such as truncation, censoring, and selectivity are overcome by using birth intervals and a stochastic model. Data were obtained from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey to estimate fertility and secondary sterility of noncontracepting, currently married women by age, residence,and educational status. The model is specified, the data identified, and the process of application presented. The gestation period is assumed to be 9 months, and postpartum amenorrhea (PPA) constructed by age, parity, and duration of marriage. The constant period of nonsusceptibility is considered to be the gestation period of 9 months plus the average value of PPA by socioeconomic group. In the inflated model of OBI, a truncated model of OBI is constructed at different points designated as the risk of occurrences (lambda) and the probability of a birth after the first birth (alpha), which are obtained by the Gauss-Newton and Marquardt iterative methods. The results show the expected: that fecundity decreases with age. After 25 years of age, the fecundity parameter lambda shows a steady and diminishing decline as age increases. There is some evidence of declines in fecundity from rural to urban areas. No schooling to 3 years plus of schooling shows a similar pattern. The patterns of women aged 30 years reflects the opposite education effect, which might be interpreted as high coital frequency in modern marriages and among more educated women. The inflated model of OBI follows similar trends, but OBI data have higher estimates of fecundity for younger women and lower estimates for older women than LCBI data. Age patterns of secondary sterility increase until age 30; the proportion of sterile women increases thereafter.

Estimation of fertility and mortality of the Kuwaiti population.

Indirect techniques are applied to estimate the current level of fertility and mortality among Kuwaiti nationals in Kuwait during 1980-85. The various methods discussed provide estimates in the vicinity of 45 per thousand for birth rate and 8 per thousand for death rate. While child spacing by birth order in Kuwait is about 2 years, the proportion of childlessness is very low (1%). As a consequence of lower mortality and stable high fertility, the Kuwaiti population remains young.

PIP: Indirect techniques are applied to estimate the current level of fertility and mortality among Kukaiti nationals in Kuwait during 1980 through 1985. The various methods discussed provide estimates in the vicinity of 45/1000 for birth rate and 8/1000 for death rate. Whereas child spacing by birth order in Kuwait is about 2 years, the proportion of childlessness is very low (1%). Kuwaitis, in general, had a high fertility and low mortality during 1980 through 1985, whereas there was a decline in the death rate. These estimates, compared with figures derived from the civil registration data show that while for fertility the figures from 2 sets of data are in fairly good agreement and close to each other, there is great disparity in the death rate. It seems that the death registration data are less complete. Presumably some of the infant deaths occurring in the desert or more remote areas are not registered. Of the methods for using demographic data in fertility estimation, for simplicity and integration, 3 were selected: Rele's regression procedure (1967), Coale's robust estimation method (1981), and Preston's general population model (1983). In addition, the parity progression ratios, and mean maternal ages of women at different orders of birth were estimated. Both Rele's and Coale's methods suggest little change in crude birth rate during the period 1980 through 1985. Using Preston's model, total birth rate was 45.4/1000 for the period 1980 to 1985 it was 45.0/1000. Estimation of fertility from the age distribution of the population requires knowledge of level and pattern of mortality. Without such knowledge, assumptions are required of stability or quasi-stability of the population as well as the pattern of mortality. Model stable populations, therefore, that provide data for such assumptions play a significant role in the estimation of fertility.