Subjective confidence reflects representation of Bayesian probability in cortex.

What gives rise to the human sense of confidence? Here we tested the Bayesian hypothesis that confidence is based on a probability distribution represented in neural population activity. We implemented several computational models of confidence and tested their predictions using psychophysics and functional magnetic resonance imaging. Using a generative model-based decoding technique, we extracted probability distributions from neural population activity in human visual cortex. We found that subjective confidence tracks the shape of the decoded distribution. That is, when sensory evidence was more precise, as indicated by the decoded distribution, observers reported higher levels of confidence. We furthermore found that neural activity in the insula, anterior cingulate and prefrontal cortex was linked to both the shape of the decoded distribution and reported confidence, in ways consistent with the Bayesian model. Altogether, our findings support recent statistical theories of confidence and suggest that probabilistic information guides the computation of one's sense of confidence.

Dual strategies in human confidence judgments.

Although confidence is commonly believed to be an essential element in decision-making, it remains unclear what gives rise to one's sense of confidence. Recent Bayesian theories propose that confidence is computed, in part, from the degree of uncertainty in sensory evidence. Alternatively, observers can use physical properties of the stimulus as a heuristic to confidence. In the current study, we developed ideal observer models for either hypothesis and compared their predictions against human data obtained from psychophysical experiments. Participants reported the orientation of a stimulus, and their confidence in this estimate, under varying levels of internal and external noise. As predicted by the Bayesian model, we found a consistent link between confidence and behavioral variability for a given stimulus orientation. Confidence was higher when orientation estimates were more precise, for both internal and external sources of noise. However, we observed the inverse pattern when comparing between stimulus orientations: although observers gave more precise orientation estimates for cardinal orientations (a phenomenon known as the oblique effect), they were more confident about oblique orientations. We show that these results are well explained by a strategy to confidence that is based on the perceived amount of noise in the stimulus. Altogether, our results suggest that confidence is not always computed from the degree of uncertainty in one's perceptual evidence but can instead be based on visual cues that function as simple Heuristics to confidence.

Going in circles is the way forward: the role of recurrence in visual inference.

Biological visual systems exhibit abundant recurrent connectivity. State-of-the-art neural network models for visual recognition, by contrast, rely heavily or exclusively on feedforward computation. Any finite-time recurrent neural network (RNN) can be unrolled along time to yield an equivalent feedforward neural network (FNN). This important insight suggests that computational neuroscientists may not need to engage recurrent computation, and that computer-vision engineers may be limiting themselves to a special case of FNN if they build recurrent models. Here we argue, to the contrary, that FNNs are a special case of RNNs and that computational neuroscientists and engineers should engage recurrence to understand how brains and machines can (1) achieve greater and more flexible computational depth (2) compress complex computations into limited hardware (3) integrate priors and priorities into visual inference through expectation and attention (4) exploit sequential dependencies in their data for better inference and prediction and (5) leverage the power of iterative computation.

Probabilistic Representation in Human Visual Cortex Reflects Uncertainty in Serial Decisions.

How does the brain represent the reliability of its sensory evidence? Here, we test whether sensory uncertainty is encoded in cortical population activity as the width of a probability distribution, a hypothesis that lies at the heart of Bayesian models of neural coding. We probe the neural representation of uncertainty by capitalizing on a well-known behavioral bias called serial dependence. Human observers of either sex reported the orientation of stimuli presented in sequence, while activity in visual cortex was measured with fMRI. We decoded probability distributions from population-level activity and found that serial dependence effects in behavior are consistent with a statistically advantageous sensory integration strategy, in which uncertain sensory information is given less weight. More fundamentally, our results suggest that probability distributions decoded from human visual cortex reflect the sensory uncertainty that observers rely on in their decisions, providing critical evidence for Bayesian theories of perception.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Virtually any decision that people make is based on uncertain and incomplete information. Although uncertainty plays a major role in decision-making, we have but a nascent understanding of its neural basis. Here, we probe the neural code of uncertainty by capitalizing on a well-known perceptual illusion. We developed a computational model to explain the illusion, and tested it in behavioral and neuroimaging experiments. This revealed that the illusion is not a mistake of perception, but rather reflects a rational decision under uncertainty. No less important, we discovered that the uncertainty that people use in this decision is represented in brain activity as the width of a probability distribution, providing critical evidence for current Bayesian theories of decision-making.

Optimality is critical when it comes to testing computation-level hypotheses.

We disagree with Rahnev & Denison (R&D) that optimality should be abandoned altogether. Rather, we argue that adopting a normative approach enables researchers to test hypotheses about the brain's computational goals, avoids just-so explanations, and offers insights into function that are simply inaccessible to the alternatives proposed by R&D.

Sensory uncertainty decoded from visual cortex predicts behavior.

Bayesian theories of neural coding propose that sensory uncertainty is represented by a probability distribution encoded in neural population activity, but direct neural evidence supporting this hypothesis is currently lacking. Using fMRI in combination with a generative model-based analysis, we found that probability distributions reflecting sensory uncertainty could reliably be estimated from human visual cortex and, moreover, that observers appeared to use knowledge of this uncertainty in their perceptual decisions.

Perceptual learning selectively refines orientation representations in early visual cortex.

Although practice has long been known to improve perceptual performance, the neural basis of this improvement in humans remains unclear. Using fMRI in conjunction with a novel signal detection-based analysis, we show that extensive practice selectively enhances the neural representation of trained orientations in the human visual cortex. Twelve observers practiced discriminating small changes in the orientation of a laterally presented grating over 20 or more daily 1 h training sessions. Training on average led to a twofold improvement in discrimination sensitivity, specific to the trained orientation and the trained location, with minimal improvement found for untrained orthogonal orientations or for orientations presented in the untrained hemifield. We measured the strength of orientation-selective responses in individual voxels in early visual areas (V1-V4) using signal detection measures, both before and after training. Although the overall amplitude of the BOLD response was no greater after training, practice nonetheless specifically enhanced the neural representation of the trained orientation at the trained location. This training-specific enhancement of orientation-selective responses was observed in the primary visual cortex (V1) as well as higher extrastriate visual areas V2-V4, and moreover, reliably predicted individual differences in the behavioral effects of perceptual learning. These results demonstrate that extensive training can lead to targeted functional reorganization of the human visual cortex, refining the cortical representation of behaviorally relevant information.