Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic both relied and placed significant burdens on the experts involved from research and public health sectors. The sustained high pressure of a pandemic on responders, such as healthcare workers, can lead to lasting psychological impacts including acute stress disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, burnout, and moral injury, which can impact individual wellbeing and productivity. Methods: As members of the infectious disease modelling community, we convened a reflective workshop to understand the professional and personal impacts of response work on our community and to propose recommendations for future epidemic responses. The attendees represented a range of career stages, institutions, and disciplines. This piece was collectively produced by those present at the session based on our collective experiences. Results: Key issues we identified at the workshop were lack of institutional support, insecure contracts, unequal credit and recognition, and mental health impacts. Our recommendations include rewarding impactful work, fostering academia-public health collaboration, decreasing dependence on key individuals by developing teams, increasing transparency in decision-making, and implementing sustainable work practices. Conclusions: Despite limitations in representation, this workshop provided valuable insights into the UK COVID-19 modelling experience and guidance for future public health crises. Recognising and addressing the issues highlighted is crucial, in our view, for ensuring the effectiveness of epidemic response work in the future.

Urinary metabolic characterization of advanced tuberculous meningitis cases in a South African paediatric population.

Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is a severe form of tuberculosis with high neuro-morbidity and mortality, especially among the paediatric population (aged ≤12 years). Little is known of the associated metabolic changes. This study aimed to identify characteristic metabolic markers that differentiate severe cases of paediatric TBM from controls, through non-invasive urine collection. Urine samples selected for this study were from two paediatric groups. Group 1: controls (n = 44): children without meningitis, no neurological symptoms and from the same geographical region as group 2. Group 2: TBM cases (n = 13): collected from paediatric patients that were admitted to Tygerberg Hospital in South Africa on the suspicion of TBM, mostly severely ill; with a later confirmation of TBM. Untargeted 1H NMR-based metabolomics data of urine were generated, followed by statistical analyses via MetaboAnalyst (v5.0), and the identification of important metabolites. Twenty nine urinary metabolites were identified as characteristic of advanced TBM and categorized in terms of six dysregulated metabolic pathways: 1) upregulated tryptophan catabolism linked to an altered vitamin B metabolism; 2) perturbation of amino acid metabolism; 3) increased energy production-metabolic burst; 4) disrupted gut microbiota metabolism; 5) ketoacidosis; 6) increased nitrogen excretion. We also provide original biological insights into this biosignature of urinary metabolites that can be used to characterize paediatric TBM patients in a South African cohort.

Urinary markers of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and dysbiosis in paediatric tuberculous meningitis cases undergoing treatment.

BACKGROUND: The pathogenesis of tuberculous meningitis (TBM) involves infection by Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the meninges and brain. However, recent studies have shown that the immune response and inflammatory processes triggered by TBM can have significant effects on gut microbiota. Disruptions in the gut microbiome have been linked to various systemic consequences, including altered immunity and metabolic dysregulation. Inflammation caused by TBM, antibiotic treatment, and changes in host immunity can all influence the composition of gut microbes. This complex relationship between TBM and the gut microbiome is of great importance in clinical settings. To gain a deeper understanding of the intricate interactions between TBM and the gut microbiome, we report innovative insights into the development of the disease in response to treatment. Ultimately, this could lead to improved outcomes, management strategies and quality of life for individuals affected by TBM. METHOD: We used a targeted liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) approach to investigate metabolites associated with gut metabolism in paediatric participants by analysing the urine samples collected from a control group (n = 40), and an experimental group (n = 35) with confirmed TBM, which were subdivided into TBM stage 1 (n = 8), stage 2 (n = 11) and stage 3 (n = 16). FINDINGS: Our metabolomics investigation showed that, of the 78 initially selected compounds of microbiome origin, eight unique urinary metabolites were identified: 2-methylbutyrlglycine, 3-hydroxypropionic acid, 3-methylcrotonylglycine, 4-hydroxyhippuric acid, 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid, 5-hydroxyhexanoic acid, isobutyrylglycine, and phenylacetylglutamine as urinary markers of dysbiosis in TBM. CONCLUSION: These results - which are supported by previous urinary studies of tuberculosis - highlight the importance of gut metabolism and of identifying corresponding microbial metabolites as novel points for the foundation of improved management of TBM patients.

Marburg virus disease outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review.

The 2023 Marburg virus disease outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania highlighted the importance of better understanding this lethal pathogen. We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of peer-reviewed articles reporting historical outbreaks, modelling studies, and epidemiological parameters focused on Marburg virus disease. We searched PubMed and Web of Science from database inception to March 31, 2023. Two reviewers evaluated all titles and abstracts with consensus-based decision making. To ensure agreement, 13 (31%) of 42 studies were double-extracted and a custom-designed quality assessment questionnaire was used for risk of bias assessment. We present detailed information on 478 reported cases and 385 deaths from Marburg virus disease. Analysis of historical outbreaks and seroprevalence estimates suggests the possibility of undetected Marburg virus disease outbreaks, asymptomatic transmission, or cross-reactivity with other pathogens, or a combination of these. Only one study presented a mathematical model of Marburg virus transmission. We estimate an unadjusted, pooled total random effect case fatality ratio of 61·9% (95% CI 38·8-80·6; I2=93%). We identify epidemiological parameters relating to transmission and natural history, for which there are few estimates. This systematic review and the accompanying database provide a comprehensive overview of Marburg virus disease epidemiology and identify key knowledge gaps, contributing crucial information for mathematical models to support future Marburg virus disease epidemic responses.

Survey of the use of traditional and complementary medicine among children with cancer at three hospitals in Cameroon.

INTRODUCTION: There is lack of diagnostic and treatment resources with variable access to childhood cancer treatment in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), which may lead to subsequent poor survival. The primary aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and types of traditional and complementary medicine (T&CM) used in Cameroon. Secondarily, we explored determinants of T&CM use, associated costs, perceived benefits and harm, and disclosure of T&CM use to medical team. METHODS: A prospective, cross-sectional survey among parents and carers of children younger than 15 years of age who had a cancer diagnosis and received cancer treatment at three Baptist Mission hospitals between November 2017 and February 2019. RESULTS: Eighty participants completed the survey. Median patient age was 8.1 years (IQR4.1-11.1). There was significant availability (90%) and use (67.5%) of T&CM, whereas 24% thought T&CM would be good for cancer treatment. Common T&CM remedies included herbs and other plant remedies or teas taken by mouth, prayer for healing purposes and skin cutting. Living more than five hours away from the treatment center (P = 0.030), anticipated costs (0.028), and a habit of consulting a traditional healer when sick (P = 0.006) were associated with the use of T&CM. T&CM was mostly paid for in cash (53.7%) or provided free of charge (29.6%). Of importance was the fact that nearly half (44%) did not want to disclose the use of TM to their doctor. CONCLUSION: Pediatric oncology patients used T&CM before and during treatment but were unlikely to disclose its use to the child's health care team.

Outcome of retinoblastoma treatment protocol in Cameroon as per SIOP-PODC recommendation for a low-income setting.

INTRODUCTION: The International Society of Paediatric Oncology-Paediatric Oncology in Developing Countries (SIOP-PODC) group recommended graduated-intensity retinoblastoma treatment for children in low- and middle-income countries with limited local resources. AIM: The aim was to improve outcome of children with retinoblastoma by means of a treatment protocol for low-income settings as recommended by the SIOP-PODC recommendation in Cameroon. METHODS: Children diagnosed with retinoblastoma between 2012 and 2016 were treated in two Baptist Mission hospitals in Cameroon, staging according to the International Retinoblastoma Staging System. Treatment included local therapy and combination chemotherapy (vincristine, cyclophosphamide, and doxorubicin) with or without surgery as per SIOP-PODC guidelines for low-income countries. Endpoint was survival at 24 months. Kaplan-Meier curves with log-rank (Mantel-Cox) chi-square (χ2 ) with respective p-values were prepared. RESULTS: Eighty-two children were included, of whom 79.3% had unilateral disease. The majority were males (61.0%) with median age 24 months (range 1-112 months; standard deviation [SD] 19). Limited disease was diagnosed in 58.5%, metastatic disease in 35.4%, and unknown stage in 6.1%. Overall survival (OS) was 50.0% at 24 months post diagnosis, but 68.8% for limited disease. Estimated cumulative survival at 24 months was 0.528 (standard error [SE] 0.056). Causes of death included disease progression/relapses (60.5%), neutropenic sepsis (15.9%), unknown causes (18.4%), unrelated infection (2.6%), and death post surgery (2.6%). Stage was significantly associated with OS (p < .001). CONCLUSION: Stage was the most significant factor for good OS and demonstrated the efficacy and feasibility of the SIOP-PODC-proposed management guidelines for retinoblastoma in a lower middle-income setting.

Setting the global research agenda for community-based HIV service delivery through the faith sector.

BACKGROUND: While leading AIDS organizations expect faith and health collaborations to play a crucial role in organizing and scaling up community-based HIV services, it is unclear how this can be realized. Little primary research has been conducted into which strategies for collaboration and service provision are most effective, efficient, scalable and sustainable. Seeking to align research with urgent needs, enhance coordination and increase the likelihood that results are used, this study aimed to set an inclusive global research agenda that reflects priority research questions from key stakeholders at the intersection of HIV healthcare and faith. METHODS: In order to develop this global research agenda, we drew from document analyses, focus group discussions, interviews with purposively selected key informants from all continents (policy-makers, healthcare providers, faith leaders, academics and HIV activists), an online questionnaire, and expert meetings at several global conferences. We carried out focus group discussions and interviews with faith leaders in South Africa. Other stakeholder focus groups and interviews were carried out online or in person in France, Switzerland, the Netherlands and South Africa, and virtual questionnaires were distributed to stakeholders worldwide. Respondents were purposively sampled. RESULTS: We interviewed 53 participants, and 110 stakeholders responded to the online questionnaire. The participants worked in 54 countries, with the majority having research experience (84%), experience with policy processes (73%) and/or experience as a healthcare provider (60%) and identifying as religious (79%). From interviews (N = 53) and questionnaires (N = 110), we identified 10 research themes: addressing sexuality, stigma, supporting specific populations, counselling and disclosure, agenda-setting, mobilizing and organizing funding, evaluating faith-health collaborations, advantage of faith initiatives, gender roles, and education. Respondents emphasized the need for more primary research and prioritized two themes: improving the engagement of faith communities in addressing sexuality and tackling stigma. CONCLUSIONS: A wide range of respondents participated in developing the research agenda. To align research to the prioritized themes and ensure that results are used, it is essential to further engage key users, funders, researchers and other stakeholders, strengthen the capacity for locally embedded research and research uptake and contextualize priorities to diverse religious traditions, key populations and local circumstances.

Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States.

After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.

Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27-77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49-91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12-48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.

Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China.

OBJECTIVES: In this data collation study, we aimed to provide a comprehensive database describing the epidemic trends and responses during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) throughout the main provinces in China. METHODS: From mid-January to March 2020, we extracted publicly available data regarding the spread and control of COVID-19 from 31 provincial health authorities and major media outlets in mainland China. Based on these data, we conducted descriptive analyses of the epidemic in the six most-affected provinces. RESULTS: School closures, travel restrictions, community-level lockdown, and contact tracing were introduced concurrently around late January but subsequent epidemic trends differed among provinces. Compared with Hubei, the other five most-affected provinces reported a lower crude case fatality ratio and proportion of critical and severe hospitalised cases. From March 2020, as the local transmission of COVID-19 declined, switching the focus of measures to the testing and quarantine of inbound travellers may have helped to sustain the control of the epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: Aggregated indicators of case notifications and severity distributions are essential for monitoring an epidemic. A publicly available database containing these indicators and information regarding control measures is a useful resource for further research and policy planning in response to the COVID-19 epidemic.

Three-dimensional visualizations from a dataset of immunohistochemical stained serial sections of human brain tissue containing tuberculosis related granulomas.

This data article presents datasets associated with the research article entitled "The immunological architecture of granulomatous inflammation in central nervous system tuberculosis'' (Zaharie et al., 2020). The morphology of tuberculosis related granulomas within the central nervous system of human patients was visualized in six different three-dimensional (3D) models. Post-mortem, formalin fixed and paraffin embedded specimens from deceased tuberculous meningitis patients were immunohistochemically stained and 800 serial histologically stained sections were acquired. Images from all sections were obtained with an Olympus BX43 light microscope and structures were identified, labeled and made three-dimensional. The interactive 3D-models allows the user to directly visualize the morphology of the granulomas and to understand the localization of the granulomas. The 3D-models can be used for multiple purposes and provide both an educational source as a gold standard for further animal studies, human research and the development of in silico models on the topic of central nervous system tuberculosis.

State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States.

As of 1st June 2020, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We use changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on the rate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate that Rt was only below one in 23 states on 1st June. We also estimate that 3.7% [3.4%-4.0%] of the total population of the US had been infected, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We demonstrate good 3 week model forecasts of deaths with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals.

The immunological architecture of granulomatous inflammation in central nervous system tuberculosis.

Of all tuberculosis (TB) cases, 1% affects the central nervous system (CNS), with a mortality rate of up to 60%. Our aim is to fill the 'key gap' in TBM research by analyzing brain specimens in a unique historical cohort of 84 patients, focusing on granuloma formation. We describe three different types: non-necrotizing, necrotizing gummatous, and necrotizing abscess type granuloma. Our hypothesis is that these different types of granuloma are developmental stages of the same pathological process. All types were present in each patient and were mainly localized in the leptomeninges. Intra-parenchymal granulomas were less abundant than the leptomeningeal ones and mainly located close to the cerebrospinal fluid (subpial and subependymal). We found that most of the intraparenchymal granulomas are an extension of leptomeningeal lesions which is the opposite of the classical Rich focus theory. We present a 3D-model to facilitate further understanding of the topographic relation of granulomas with leptomeninges, brain parenchyma and blood vessels. We describe innate and adaptive immune responses during granuloma formation including the cytokine profiles. We emphasize the presence of leptomeningeal B-cell aggregates as tertiary lymphoid structures. Our study forms a basis for further research in neuroinflammation and infectious diseases of the CNS, especially TB.

Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions.

BACKGROUND: After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their "test, trace, isolate" strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea's outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere. METHODS: We systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. RESULTS: We estimated that after the initial rapid growth in cases, Rt dropped below one in early April before increasing to a maximum of 1.94 (95%CrI, 1.64-2.27) in May following outbreaks in Seoul Metropolitan Region. By mid-June, Rt was back below one where it remained until the end of our study (July 13th). Despite less stringent "lockdown" measures, strong social distancing measures were implemented in high-incidence areas and studies measured a considerable national decrease in movement in late February. Testing the capacity was swiftly increased, and protocols were in place to isolate suspected and confirmed cases quickly; however, we could not estimate the delay to isolation using our data. Accounting for just 10% of cases, individual case-based contact tracing picked up a relatively minor proportion of total cases, with cluster investigations accounting for 66%. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst early adoption of testing and contact tracing is likely to be important for South Korea's successful outbreak control, other factors including regional implementation of strong social distancing measures likely also contributed. The high volume of testing and the low number of deaths suggest that South Korea experienced a small epidemic relative to other countries. Caution is needed in attempting to replicate the South Korean response in populations with larger more geographically widespread epidemics where finding, testing, and isolating cases that are linked to clusters may be more difficult.

Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment.

Background: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. These interventions have impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic was not clear. Methods: Using daily reported cases from mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, we estimated transmissibility over time and compared it to daily within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Results: Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the five mainland provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation decreased rapidly after the initial sharp fall in transmissibility. In general, towards the end of the study period, the correlation was no longer apparent, despite substantial increases in within-city movement. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity were maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. At the very end of the study period, when China began to experience the re-introduction of a small number of cases from Europe and the United States, there is an apparent up-tick in transmission. Conclusions: Although these results do not preclude future substantial increases in incidence, they suggest that after very intense social distancing (which resulted in containment), China successfully exited its lockdown to some degree. Elsewhere, movement data are being used as proxies for economic activity to assess the impact of interventions. The results presented here illustrate how the eventual decorrelation between transmission and movement is likely a key feature of successful COVID-19 exit strategies.

Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. METHODS: Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS: In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. INTERPRETATION: Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council.

Adoption and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19.

Background: Several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented across the world to control the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Social distancing (SD) interventions applied so far have included school closures, remote working and quarantine. These measures have been shown to have large impacts on pandemic influenza transmission. However, there has been comparatively little examination of such measures for COVID-19. Methods: We examined the existing literature, and collated data, on implementation of NPIs to examine their effects on the COVID-19 pandemic so far. Data on NPIs were collected from official government websites as well as from media sources. Results: Measures such as travel restrictions have been implemented in multiple countries and appears to have slowed the geographic spread of COVID-19 and reduced initial case numbers. We find that, due to the relatively sparse information on the differences with and without interventions, it is difficult to quantitatively assess the efficacy of many interventions. Similarly, whilst the comparison to other pandemic diseases such as influenza can be helpful, there are key differences that could affect the efficacy of similar NPIs. Conclusions: The timely implementation of control measures is key to their success and must strike a balance between early enough application to reduce the peak of the epidemic and ensuring that they can be feasibly maintained for an appropriate duration. Such measures can have large societal impacts and they need to be appropriately justified to the population. As the pandemic of COVID-19 progresses, quantifying the impact of interventions will be a vital consideration for the appropriate use of mitigation strategies.

The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries.

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower-income countries may reduce overall risk, but limited health system capacity coupled with closer intergenerational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower-income countries resulting from the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower-income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being, and economies of these countries.

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases. METHODS: We collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation. FINDINGS: Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9-19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9-28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56-3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23-1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27-0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7-7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2-15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4-3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8-11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39-1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0-37·6) in those aged 80 years or older. INTERPRETATION: These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.