Developing meaningful water-energy-food-environment (WEFE) nexus indicators with stakeholders: An Upper White Nile case study.

The Upper White Nile (UWN) basin plays a critical role in supporting essential ecosystem services and the livelihoods of millions of people in East Africa. The basin has been exposed to tremendous environmental pressures following high population growth, urbanisation, and land use change, all of which are compounded by the threats posed by climate change and insufficient financial and human resources. The water-energy-food-environment (WEFE) nexus provides a framework to assess solution options towards sustainable development by minimising the trade-offs between water, energy, and food resources. However, the majority of existing WEFE nexus indicators and tools tend to be developed without consideration of practitioners at the local level, thus constraining the practical application within real-world contexts. To try to address this gap and operationalise the WEFE nexus, we examined how local stakeholders frame the most pressing WEFE nexus challenges within the UWN basin, how these can be represented as indicators, and how existing WEFE nexus modelling tools could address this. The findings highlight the importance of declining water quality and aquatic ecosystem health as a result of deforestation and increasing agricultural intensity, with stakeholders expressing concerns for the uncertain impacts from climate change. Furthermore, a review of current WEFE nexus modelling tools reveals how they tend to be insufficient in addressing the most pressing environmental challenges within the basin, with a significant gap regarding the inclusion of water quality and aquatic ecosystem indicators. Subsequently, these findings are combined in order to guide the development of WEFE nexus indicators that have the potential to spatially model the trade-offs within the WEFE nexus in the UWN basin under climate change scenarios. This work provides an example of how incorporating local stakeholder's values and concerns can contribute to the development of meaningful indicators, that are fit-for-purpose and respond to the actual local needs.

The underexposed nature-based solutions: A critical state-of-art review on drought mitigation.

Droughts are the most expensive climate disasters as they leave long-term and chronic impacts on the ecosystem, agriculture, and human society. The intensity, frequency, and duration of drought events have increased over the years and are expected to worsen in the future on a regional and planetary/global scale. Nature-based solutions (NBS) such as wetland and floodplain restorations, green infrastructures, rainwater harvesting, etc., are highlighted as effective solutions to cope with the future impacts of these events. While the role of NBS in coping with the impacts of other disasters, such as floods, has been extensively studied, there has been a lack of comprehensive review of NBS targeting drought. The following paper provides a unique critical state-of-the-art literature review of individual drought-related NBS around the world, in Europe, and particularly in Belgium, and assesses the critical differences between the NBS applied globally and in Flanders. An extensive literature review was conducted to systematically analyze NBS, listing the type, the location, the status of the implementation, and the possible recommendations proposed to optimize future NBS applications. Finally, a comparison is made between small- and large-scale applications of NBS. By analyzing all these aspects, especially the level of effectiveness and recommendations, insight was gained into the future potential of NBS and possible improvements. The research indicated a lack of scientific publications, especially in Belgium. Hence, grey literature was also included in the literature review. Only four papers included a quantitative assessment regarding the effectiveness of drought on a global level, all stating a positive impact on groundwater recharge. In contrast, at regional and country levels, the performance of NBS was not quantified. The number of large-scale implementations is low, where landscape- or watershed-scale holistic approaches to drought mitigation are still scarce. Some successfully implemented projects are only very local and have a long realization time, two aspects that limit achieving visible impact at a larger scale. Among the many NBS, wetlands are recognized as highly effective in coping with drought but are still degraded or lost despite their significant restoration potential. A common effectiveness evaluation framework shall be followed, which gives policymakers a clear view of the different NBS investment options. Furthermore, a more collaborative approach is recommended globally, including different stakeholder groups, with specific attention to the local communities. To conclude, future research should increase the evidence base and implementation of drought-mitigating NBS.

Declining cost of renewables and climate change curb the need for African hydropower expansion.

Across continental Africa, more than 300 new hydropower projects are under consideration to meet the future energy demand that is expected based on the growing population and increasing energy access. Yet large uncertainties associated with hydroclimatic and socioeconomic changes challenge hydropower planning. In this work, we show that only 40 to 68% of the candidate hydropower capacity in Africa is economically attractive. By analyzing the African energy systems' development from 2020 to 2050 for different scenarios of energy demand, land-use change, and climate impacts on water availability, we find that wind and solar outcompete hydropower by 2030. An additional 1.8 to 4% increase in annual continental investment ensures reliability against future hydroclimatic variability. However, cooperation between countries is needed to overcome the divergent spatial distribution of investment costs and potential energy deficits.

The impact of extensive agricultural water drainage on the hydrology of the Kleine Nete watershed, Belgium.

Agricultural water drainage can significantly lower groundwater levels and affect catchment hydrology. Therefore, building models with and without these features can indicate an adverse impact on the geohydrological process. Therefore, the standalone Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) model was initially developed to simulate streamflow at the Kleine Nete catchment outlet. Next, a physically based and spatially distributed groundwater module (gwflow) was integrated into the SWAT+ model and calibrated for stream discharge at the catchment outlet. Finally, the same model was calibrated for both streamflow and groundwater heads. These final model parameters are used to investigate the basin-wide hydrologic fluxes with and without including agricultural drainage systems in the model scheme. The result suggested that the standalone SWAT+ model poorly represented the stream discharge and attained low NSE values of 0.18 and 0.37 during the calibration and validation periods, respectively. Integrating the gwflow module to SWAT+ improved the model representation of stream discharge (NSE = 0.91 and 0.65 for calibration and validation periods, respectively) and groundwater heads. However, calibrating the model for only streamflow resulted in a high root mean square error (above 1 m) for groundwater head, and the seasonality is not captured. On the other hand, calibrating the coupled model for streamflow and hydraulic head reduced the root mean square error (below 0.5 m) and captured the seasonality of groundwater level fluctuations. Finally, drainage application resulted in a 50 % (from 33.04 mm to 16.59 mm) reduction in groundwater saturation excess flow and an 18.4 mm increment in drainage water to streams. To conclude, the new SWAT+gwflow model is more appropriate than the standalone SWAT+ model for the case study. Furthermore, calibrating the SWAT+gwflow model for streamflow and groundwater head has improved the model simulation, with implications for general coupled models where representing surface and groundwater in the calibration strategy is beneficial.

Regionalization of the SWAT+ model for projecting climate change impacts on sediment yield: An application in the Nile basin.

Study region: Nile basin. Study focus: Several studies have shown a relationship between climate change and changes in sediment yield. However, there are limited modeling applications that study this relationship at regional scales mainly due to data availability and computational cost. This study proposes a methodological framework using the SWAT+ model to predict and project sediment yield at a regional scale in data-scarce regions using global datasets. We implement a framework that (a) incorporates topographic factors from high/medium resolution DEMs (b) incorporates crop phenology data (c) introduces an areal threshold to linearize sediment yield in large model units and (d) apply a hydrological mass balance calibration. We test this methodology in the Nile Basin using a model application with (revised) and without (default) the framework under historical and future climate projections. New hydrological insights for the region: Results show improved sediment yield estimates in the revised model, both in absolute values and spatial distribution when compared to measured and reported estimates. The contemporary long term (1989 - 2019) annual mean sediment yield in the revised model was 1.79 t ha-1 yr-1 and projected to increase by 61 % (44 % more than the default estimates) in the future period (2071 - 2100), with the greatest sediment yield increase in the eastern part of the basin. Thus, the proposed framework improves and influences modeled and predicted sediment yield respectively.

A spatiotemporal atlas of hydropower in Africa for energy modelling purposes.

The modelling of electricity systems with substantial shares of renewable resources, such as solar power, wind power and hydropower, requires datasets on renewable resource profiles with high spatiotemporal resolution to be made available to the energy modelling community. Whereas such resources exist for solar power and wind power profiles on diurnal and seasonal scales across all continents, this is not yet the case for hydropower. Here, we present a newly developed open-access African hydropower atlas, containing seasonal hydropower generation profiles for nearly all existing and several hundred future hydropower plants on the African continent. The atlas builds on continental-scale hydrological modelling in combination with detailed technical databases of hydropower plant characteristics and can facilitate modelling of power systems across Africa.

Hysteresis and parent-metabolite analyses unravel characteristic pesticide transport mechanisms in a mixed land use catchment.

To properly estimate and manage pesticide occurrence in urban rivers, it is essential, but often highly challenging, to identify the key pesticide transport pathways in association to the main sources. This study examined the concentration-discharge hysteresis behaviour (hysteresis analysis) for three pesticides and the parent-metabolite concentration dynamics for two metabolites at sites with different levels of urban influence in a mixed land use catchment (25 km2) within the Swiss Greifensee area, aiming to identify the dominant pesticide transport pathways. Combining an adapted hysteresis classification framework with prior knowledge of the field conditions and pesticide usage, we demonstrated the possibility of using hysteresis analysis to qualitatively infer the dominant pesticide transport pathway in mixed land-use catchments. The analysis showed that hysteresis types, and therefore the dominant transport pathway, vary among pesticides, sites and rainfall events. Hysteresis loops mostly correspond to dominant transport by flow components with intermediate response time, although pesticide sources indicate that fast transport pathways are responsible in most cases (e.g. urban runoff and combined sewer overflows). The discrepancy suggests the fast transport pathways can be slowed down due to catchment storages, such as topographic depressions in agricultural areas, a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and other artificial storage units (e.g. retention basins) in urban areas. Moreover, the WWTP was identified as an important factor modifying the parent-metabolite concentration dynamics during rainfall events. To properly predict and manage pesticide occurrence in catchments of mixed land uses, the hydrological delaying effect and chemical processes within the artificial structures need to be accounted for, in addition to the catchment hydrology and the diversity of pesticide sources. This study demonstrates that in catchments with diverse pesticide sources and complex transport mechanisms, the adapted hysteresis analysis can help to improve our understanding on pesticide transport behaviours and provide a basis for effective management strategies.

Quantification and characterization of glyphosate use and loss in a residential area.

Urban runoff can be a significant source of pesticides in urban streams. However, quantification of this source has been difficult because pesticide use by urban residents (e.g., on pavements or in gardens) is often unknown, particularly at the scale of a residential catchment. Proper quantification and characterization of pesticide loss via urban runoff require sound information on the use and occurrence of pesticides at hydrologically-relevant spatial scales, involving various hydrological conditions. We conducted a monitoring study in a residential area (9.5 ha, Flanders, Belgium) to investigate the use and loss of a widely-used herbicide (glyphosate) and its major degradation product (aminomethylphosphonic acid, AMPA). The study covered 13 rainfall events over 67 days. Overall, less than 0.5% of glyphosate applied was recovered from the storm drain outflow in the catchment. Maximum detected concentrations were 6.1 µg/L and 5.8 µg/L for glyphosate and AMPA, respectively, both of which are below the predicted no-effect concentration for surface water proposed by the Flemish environmental agency (10 µg/L), but are above the EU drinking water standard (0.1 µg/L). The measured concentrations and percentage loss rates can be attributed partially to the strong sorption capacity of glyphosate and low runoff potential in the study area. However, glyphosate loss varied considerably among rainfall events and event load of glyphosate mass was mainly controlled by rainfall amount, according to further statistical analyses. To obtain urban pesticide management insights, robust tools are required to investigate the loss and occurrence of pesticides influenced by various factors, particularly the hydrological and spatial factors.

Comparison and evaluation of model structures for the simulation of pollution fluxes in a tile-drained river basin.

The European Union Water Framework Directive requires an integrated pollution prevention plan at the river basin level. Hydrological river basin modeling tools are therefore promising tools to support the quantification of pollution originating from different sources. A limited number of studies have reported on the use of these models to predict pollution fluxes in tile-drained basins. This study focused on evaluating different modeling tools and modeling concepts to quantify the flow and nitrate fluxes in the Odense River basin using DAISY-MIKE SHE (DMS) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The results show that SWAT accurately predicted flow for daily and monthly time steps, whereas simulation of nitrate fluxes were more accurate at a monthly time step. In comparison to the DMS model, which takes into account the uncertainty of soil hydraulic and slurry parameters, SWAT results for flow and nitrate fit well within the range of DMS simulated values in high-flow periods but were slightly lower in low-flow periods. Despite the similarities of simulated flow and nitrate fluxes at the basin outlet, the two models predicted very different separations into flow components (overland flow, tile drainage, and groundwater flow) as well as nitrate fluxes from flow components. It was concluded that the assessment on which the model provides a better representation of the reality in terms of flow paths should not only be based on standard statistical metrics for the entire river basin but also needs to consider additional data, field experiments, and opinions of field experts.

Multiobjective calibration for comparing channel sediment routing models in the soil and water assessment tool.

Sediment transport is important for ecology and water quality in receiving waters. Physically based channel erosion methods were implemented in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool version 2009 (SWAT2009) to improve sediment concentration (SS) results. In the study, the default simplified Bagnold sediment routing method (EQN-0) and the physically based simplified Bagnold sediment routing method (EQN-1) were compared with Pareto fronts from multiobjective calibration. Two SWAT models using EQN-0 and EQN-1 were set up for a small agricultural Danish catchment and calibrated with multiobjective calibration on daily and weekly flow-weighted SS (WF SS). Results showed that the Pareto front of EQN-1 was slightly closer to the optimal point than EQN-0 in the objective space. Trade-off between WF SS and daily flow in EQN-1 was smaller than in EQN-0. The EQN-0 method generated more surface erosion to improve WF SS. The EQN-1 method generated more base flow to improve WF SS. The EQN-1 method was less dependent on surface erosion and simulated peak and low values of WF SS better than EQN-0. Therefore, EQN-1 is more suitable than EQN-0 in modeling SS in small lowland catchments.

A critical comparison of systematic calibration protocols for activated sludge models: a SWOT analysis.

Modelling activated sludge systems has gained an increasing momentum after the introduction of activated sludge models (ASMs) in 1987. Application of dynamic models for full-scale systems requires essentially a calibration of the chosen ASM to the case under study. Numerous full-scale model applications have been performed so far which were mostly based on ad hoc approaches and expert knowledge. Further, each modelling study has followed a different calibration approach: e.g. different influent wastewater characterization methods, different kinetic parameter estimation methods, different selection of parameters to be calibrated, different priorities within the calibration steps, etc. In short, there was no standard approach in performing the calibration study, which makes it difficult, if not impossible, to (1) compare different calibrations of ASMs with each other and (2) perform internal quality checks for each calibration study. To address these concerns, systematic calibration protocols have recently been proposed to bring guidance to the modeling of activated sludge systems and in particular to the calibration of full-scale models. In this contribution four existing calibration approaches (BIOMATH, HSG, STOWA and WERF) will be critically discussed using a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis. It will also be assessed in what way these approaches can be further developed in view of further improving the quality of ASM calibration. In this respect, the potential of automating some steps of the calibration procedure by use of mathematical algorithms is highlighted.