Warming effects on the life cycles of two parasitic copepods with different invasion histories.

Climate change may exacerbate the impact of invasive parasites from warmer climates through pre-existing temperature adaptations. We investigated temperature impacts on two closely related marine parasitic copepod species that share the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) as host: Mytilicola orientalis has invaded the system from a warmer climate <20 years ago, whereas its established congener Mytilicola intestinalis has had >90 years to adapt. In laboratory experiments with temperatures 10-26°C, covering current and future temperatures as well as heat waves, the development of both life cycle stages of both species accelerated with increasing temperature. In the parasitic stages, the growth of the established invader increased evenly from 10°C to 22°C, whereas the recent invader barely grew at all at 10°C and grew faster already at 18°C. In contrast, temperature had little effect on the transition success between life cycle stages. However, the highest temperature (26°C) limited the egg development success of the established invader and the host entry success of both species, whereas the infection success of the established invader increased at 18°C and 22°C. In general, our experiments indicate that the main effect of temperature on both species is through development speed and not life cycle stage transition success. Based on regional long-term temperature data and predictions, the numbers of completed life cycles per year will increase for both parasites. The established invader seems better adapted for low current temperatures (around 10°C), whereas the more recent invader barely develops at these temperatures but can cope in high temperatures (around 26°C). Hence, pre-existing temperature adaptations of the recent invader may allow the species to better cope with heat waves.

Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world.

Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe's future.

A decline in primary production in the North Sea over 25 years, associated with reductions in zooplankton abundance and fish stock recruitment.

Phytoplankton primary production is at the base of the marine food web; changes in primary production have direct or indirect effects on higher trophic levels, from zooplankton organisms to marine mammals and seabirds. Here, we present a new time-series on gross primary production in the North Sea, from 1988 to 2013, estimated using in situ measurements of chlorophyll and underwater light. This shows that recent decades have seen a significant decline in primary production in the North Sea. Moreover, primary production differs in magnitude between six hydrodynamic regions within the North Sea. Sea surface warming and reduced riverine nutrient inputs are found to be likely contributors to the declining levels of primary production. In turn, significant correlations are found between observed changes in primary production and the dynamics of higher trophic levels including (small) copepods and a standardized index of fish recruitment, averaged over seven stocks of high commercial significance in the North Sea. Given positive (bottom-up) associations between primary production, zooplankton abundance and fish stock recruitment, this study provides strong evidence that if the decline in primary production continues, knock-on effects upon the productivity of fisheries are to be expected unless these fisheries are managed effectively and cautiously.

Quantifying heterogeneous responses of fish community size structure using novel combined statistical techniques.

To understand changes in ecosystems, the appropriate scale at which to study them must be determined. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover thousands of square kilometres and are a useful classification scheme for ecosystem monitoring and assessment. However, averaging across LMEs may obscure intricate dynamics within. The purpose of this study is to mathematically determine local and regional patterns of ecological change within an LME using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). After using EOFs to define regions with distinct patterns of change, a statistical model originating from control theory is applied (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous input - NARMAX) to assess potential drivers of change within these regions. We have selected spatial data sets (0.5° latitude × 1°longitude) of fish abundance from North Sea fisheries research surveys (spanning 1980-2008) as well as of temperature, oxygen, net primary production and a fishing pressure proxy, to which we apply the EOF and NARMAX methods. Two regions showed significant changes since 1980: the central North Sea displayed a decrease in community size structure which the NARMAX model suggested was linked to changes in fishing; and the Norwegian trench region displayed an increase in community size structure which, as indicated by NARMAX results, was primarily linked to changes in sea-bottom temperature. These regions were compared to an area of no change along the eastern Scottish coast where the model determined the community size structure was most strongly associated to net primary production. This study highlights the multifaceted effects of environmental change and fishing pressures in different regions of the North Sea. Furthermore, by highlighting this spatial heterogeneity in community size structure change, important local spatial dynamics are often overlooked when the North Sea is considered as a broad-scale, homogeneous ecosystem (as normally is the case within the political Marine Strategy Framework Directive).

Effects of a supplement containing isoflavones and Actaea racemosa L. on asymmetric dimethylarginine, lipids, and C-reactive protein in menopausal women.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of a supplement containing soy isoflavones and Actaea racemosa L. on several coronary heart disease (CHD) risk markers in menopausal women. DESIGN: Randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study. SETTING: Nine hospitals in The Netherlands. PATIENT(S): One hundred twenty-four menopausal women. INTERVENTION(S): Daily placebo (n = 64) or supplement containing soy isoflavones and Actaea racemosa L. (n = 60) for 12 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Fasting blood concentrations of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), lipids, and C-reactive protein (CRP) at baseline and week 12. RESULT(S): In the supplement group, total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol showed a small absolute reduction at week 12 (-0.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.3 to -0.0; and -0.2, 95% CI -0.3 to -0.0; respectively). Concentrations of ADMA, triglycerides, lipoprotein(a), and CRP did not change significantly. Analysis of covariance over the 12-week study period revealed no significant between-group differences for all parameters. No significant correlations were found between the concentrations of isoflavones and the CHD risk markers investigated. CONCLUSION(S): Twelve-week administration of a supplement containing soy isoflavones and Actaea racemosa L. had little or no influence on the CHD risk markers studied. This supplement probably has neither protective nor adverse effects on the cardiovascular system; however, large long-term studies are needed to test this.

Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover study in men with prostate cancer and rising PSA: effectiveness of a dietary supplement.

OBJECTIVES: Epidemiological studies have shown significant relationships between the use of dietary components and prostate cancer incidence and mortality. Large studies of primary prevention, which confirm these findings, are desirable but costly and difficult to design. The present tertiary prevention study reports on the effect of a dietary supplement in comparison with placebo on the rate of increase of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). METHODS: 49 patients with a history of prostate cancer and rising PSA levels after radical prostatectomy (n = 34) or radiotherapy (n = 15) participated in a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover study of a dietary supplement. Ethical approval of the protocol was obtained. Treatment periods of 10 weeks were separated by a 4-week washout period. The supplement consisted of soy, isoflavones, lycopene, silymarin and antioxidants as main ingredients. Changes in the rate of increase of PSA (PSA slope and doubling time) were the primary parameters of efficacy. Analyses according to intention to treat (ITT) and per protocol (PP) were carried out. RESULTS: Baseline parameters did not differ between randomised groups. Five participants were lost to follow-up, however 46 could be evaluated in an ITT analysis. PP analysis could be performed in 42 men with at least 5 PSA measurements. Per protocol analysis showed a significant decrease in PSA slope (p = 0.030) and (2)log PSA slope (p = 0.041). This translates into a 2.6 fold increase in the PSA doubling time from 445 to 1150 days for the supplement and placebo periods. No treatment-based changes in safety parameters were observed during the study. CONCLUSIONS: The soy-based dietary supplement utilised in this study was shown to delay PSA progression after potentially curative treatment in a significant fashion. More extensive studies of the supplement may be indicated.

Fatty acid composition of plasma lipids in patients with pancreatic, lung and oesophageal cancer in comparison with healthy subjects.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Despite the general notion of impaired nutritional status in cancer patients, studies on fatty acid status in cancer patients are limited. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether plasma n-3 fatty acids concentrations are reduced in patients with different tumour types. METHODS: We measured fatty acid composition in plasma phospholipids (PLs) and cholesteryl esters (CEs) in 71 newly diagnosed, untreated cancer patients of three tumour types: oesophageal or cardia cancer (n = 35), non-small cell lung cancer (n = 22) and pancreatic cancer (n = 15) and in 45 healthy subjects. RESULTS: In pancreatic cancer, plasma n-3 fatty acids showed a substantial reduction in both plasma PLs and CES. Although n-3 fatty acids in lung cancer also tended to be reduced, this difference failed to reach statistical significance. n-3 Fatty acid levels were especially reduced in pancreatic cancer patients without diabetes mellitus, and in lung cancer patients with weight loss. In oesophageal cancer, n-3 fatty acid concentrations were comparable to those in healthy subjects. CONCLUSION: We conclude that plasma n-3 fatty acid levels were reduced in pancreatic cancer, tended to be reduced in lung cancer, but were not altered in oesophageal cancer. Further studies are needed to assess the mechanisms underlying the observed changes in n-3 fatty acid concentrations.