Long-term reliability of the phospholamban (PLN) p.(Arg14del) risk model in predicting major ventricular arrhythmia: a landmark study.

AIMS: Recently, a genetic variant-specific prediction model for phospholamban (PLN) p.(Arg14del)-positive individuals was developed to predict individual major ventricular arrhythmia (VA) risk to support decision-making for primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implantation. This model predicts major VA risk from baseline data, but iterative evaluation of major VA risk may be warranted considering that the risk factors for major VA are progressive. Our aim is to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the PLN p.(Arg14del) risk model at 3-year follow-up. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a landmark analysis 3 years after presentation and selected only patients with no prior major VA. Data were collected of 268 PLN p.(Arg14del)-positive subjects, aged 43.5 ± 16.3 years, 38.9% male. After the 3 years landmark, subjects had a mean follow-up of 4.0 years (± 3.5 years) and 28 (10%) subjects experienced major VA with an annual event rate of 2.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-3.6], defined as sustained VA, appropriate ICD intervention, or (aborted) sudden cardiac death. The PLN p.(Arg14del) risk score yielded good discrimination in the 3 years landmark cohort with a C-statistic of 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87) and calibration slope of 0.97. CONCLUSION: The PLN p.(Arg14del) risk model has sustained good model performance up to 3 years follow-up in PLN p.(Arg14del)-positive subjects with no history of major VA. It may therefore be used to support decision-making for primary prevention ICD implantation not merely at presentation but also up to at least 3 years of follow-up.

Exercise does not influence development of phenotype in PLN p.(Arg14del) cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Endurance and frequent exercise are associated with earlier onset of arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) and ventricular arrhythmias (VA) in desmosomal gene variant carriers. Individuals with the pathogenic c.40_42del; p.(Arg14del) variant in the PLN gene are frequently diagnosed with ARVC or dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of exercise in PLN p.(Arg14del) carriers. METHODS: In total, 207 adult PLN p.(Arg14del) carriers (39.1% male; mean age 53 ± 15 years) were interviewed on their regular physical activity since the age of 10 years. The association of exercise with diagnosis of ARVC, DCM, sustained VA and hospitalisation for heart failure (HF) was studied. RESULTS: Individuals participated in regular physical activities with a median of 1661 metabolic equivalent of task (MET) hours per year (31.9 MET-hours per week) until clinical presentation. The 50% most and least active individuals had a similar frequency of sustained VA (18.3% vs 18.4%; p = 0.974) and hospitalisation for HF (9.6% vs 8.7%; p = 0.827). There was no relationship between exercise and survival free from (incident) sustained VA (p = 0.65), hospitalisation for HF (p = 0.81), diagnosis of ARVC (p = 0.67) or DCM (p = 0.39) during follow-up. In multivariate analyses, exercise was not associated with sustained VA or HF hospitalisation during follow-up in this relatively not-active cohort. CONCLUSION: There was no association between the amount of exercise and the susceptibility to develop ARVC, DCM, VA or HF in PLN p.(Arg14del) carriers. This suggested unaffected PLN p.(Arg14del) carriers can safely perform mild-moderate exercise, in contrast to desmosomal variant carriers and ARVC patients.

MYH7 p.(Arg1712Gln) is pathogenic founder variant causing hypertrophic cardiomyopathy with overall relatively delayed onset.

INTRODUCTION: The MYH7 c.5135G > A p.(Arg1712Gln) variant has been identified in several patients worldwide and is classified as pathogenic in the ClinVar database. We aimed to delineate its associated phenotype and evaluate a potential founder effect. METHODS: We retrospectively collected clinical and genetic data of 22 probands and 74 family members from an international cohort. RESULTS: In total, 53 individuals carried the MYH7 p.(Arg1712Gln) variant, of whom 38 (72%) were diagnosed with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). Mean age at HCM diagnosis was 48.8 years (standard deviation: 18.1; range: 8-74). The clinical presentation ranged from asymptomatic HCM to arrhythmias (atrial fibrillation and malignant ventricular arrhythmias). Aborted sudden cardiac death (SCD) leading to the diagnosis of HCM occurred in one proband at the age of 68 years, and a family history of SCD was reported by 39% (5/13) probands. Neither heart failure deaths nor heart transplants were reported. Women had a generally later-onset disease, with 14% of female carriers diagnosed with HCM at age 50 years compared with 54% of male carriers. In both sexes, the disease was fully penetrant by age 75 years. Haplotypes were reconstructed for 35 patients and showed a founder effect in a subset of patients. CONCLUSION: MYH7 p.(Arg1712Gln) is a pathogenic founder variant with a consistent HCM phenotype that may present with delayed penetrance. This suggested that clinical follow-up should be pursued after the seventh decade in healthy carriers and that longer intervals between screening may be justified in healthy women < 30 years.

Variant Location Is a Novel Risk Factor for Individuals With Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy Due to a Desmoplakin (DSP) Truncating Variant.

BACKGROUND: Truncating variants in desmoplakin (DSPtv) are an important cause of arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy; however the genetic architecture and genotype-specific risk factors are incompletely understood. We evaluated phenotype, risk factors for ventricular arrhythmias, and underlying genetics of DSPtv cardiomyopathy. METHODS: Individuals with DSPtv and any cardiac phenotype, and their gene-positive family members were included from multiple international centers. Clinical data and family history information were collected. Event-free survival from ventricular arrhythmia was assessed. Variant location was compared between cases and controls, and literature review of reported DSPtv performed. RESULTS: There were 98 probands and 72 family members (mean age at diagnosis 43±8 years, 59% women) with a DSPtv, of which 146 were considered clinically affected. Ventricular arrhythmia (sudden cardiac arrest, sustained ventricular tachycardia, appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy) occurred in 56 (33%) individuals. DSPtv location and proband status were independent risk factors for ventricular arrhythmia. Further, gene region was important with variants in cases (cohort n=98; Clinvar n=167) more likely to occur in the regions resulting in nonsense mediated decay of both major DSP isoforms, compared with n=124 genome aggregation database control variants (148 [83.6%] versus 29 [16.4%]; P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In the largest series of individuals with DSPtv, we demonstrate that variant location is a novel risk factor for ventricular arrhythmia, can inform variant interpretation, and provide critical insights to allow for precision-based clinical management.

Integrating Exercise Into Personalized Ventricular Arrhythmia Risk Prediction in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Exercise is associated with sustained ventricular arrhythmias (VA) in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy (ARVC) but is not included in the ARVC risk calculator (arvcrisk.com). The objective of this study is to quantify the influence of exercise at diagnosis on incident VA risk and evaluate whether the risk calculator needs adjustment for exercise. METHODS: We interviewed ARVC patients without sustained VA at diagnosis about their exercise history. The relationship between exercise dose 3 years preceding diagnosis (average METh/wk) and incident VA during follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The incremental prognostic value of exercise to the risk calculator was evaluated by Cox models. RESULTS: We included 176 patients (male, 43.2%; age, 37.6±16.1 years) from 3 ARVC centers, of whom 53 (30.1%) developed sustained VA during 5.4 (2.7-9.7) years of follow-up. Exercise at diagnosis showed a dose-dependent nonlinear relationship with VA, with no significant risk increase <15 to 30 METh/wk. Athlete status, using 3 definitions from literature (>18, >24, and >36 METh/wk), was significantly associated with VA (hazard ratios, 2.53-2.91) but was also correlated with risk factors currently in the risk calculator model. Thus, adding athlete status to the model did not change the C index of 0.77 (0.71-0.84) and showed no significant improvement (Akaike information criterion change, <2). CONCLUSIONS: Exercise at diagnosis was dose dependently associated with risk of sustained VA in ARVC patients but only above 15 to 30 METh/wk. Exercise does not appear to have incremental prognostic value over the risk calculator. The ARVC risk calculator can be used accurately in athletic patients without modification.

Prediction of ventricular arrhythmia in phospholamban p.Arg14del mutation carriers-reaching the frontiers of individual risk prediction.

AIMS: This study aims to improve risk stratification for primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implantation by developing a new mutation-specific prediction model for malignant ventricular arrhythmia (VA) in phospholamban (PLN) p.Arg14del mutation carriers. The proposed model is compared to an existing PLN risk model. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were collected from PLN p.Arg14del mutation carriers with no history of malignant VA at baseline, identified between 2009 and 2020. Malignant VA was defined as sustained VA, appropriate ICD intervention, or (aborted) sudden cardiac death. A prediction model was developed using Cox regression. The study cohort consisted of 679 PLN p.Arg14del mutation carriers, with a minority of index patients (17%) and male sex (43%), and a median age of 42 years [interquartile range (IQR) 27-55]. During a median follow-up of 4.3 years (IQR 1.7-7.4), 72 (10.6%) carriers experienced malignant VA. Significant predictors were left ventricular ejection fraction, premature ventricular contraction count/24 h, amount of negative T waves, and presence of low-voltage electrocardiogram. The multivariable model had an excellent discriminative ability {C-statistic 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78-0.88]}. Applying the existing PLN risk model to the complete cohort yielded a C-statistic of 0.68 (95% CI 0.61-0.75). CONCLUSION: This new mutation-specific prediction model for individual VA risk in PLN p.Arg14del mutation carriers is superior to the existing PLN risk model, suggesting that risk prediction using mutation-specific phenotypic features can improve accuracy compared to a more generic approach.

Buccal Mucosa Cells as a Potential Diagnostic Tool to Study Onset and Progression of Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy.

In arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (ACM) pathogenic variants are found in genes encoding desmosomal proteins and in non-desmosomal genes, such as phospholamban (PLN, p.Arg14del variant). Previous research showed that plakoglobin protein levels and localization in the cardiac tissue of ACM patients, and PLN p.Arg14del patients diagnosed with an ACM phenotype, are disturbed. Moreover, the effects of pathogenic variants in desmosomal genes are reflected in non-cardiac tissues like buccal mucosa cells (BMC) which could serve as a promising new and non-invasive tool to support diagnosis. We collected the BMC of 33 ACM patients, 17 PLN p.Arg14del patients and 34 controls, labelled the BMC with anti-plakoglobin antibodies at different concentrations, and scored their membrane labelling. We found that plakoglobin protein levels were significantly reduced in BMC obtained from diagnosed ACM patients and preclinical variant carriers when compared to controls. This effect was independent from age and sex. Moderate to strong correlations were found with the revised 2010 Task Force Criteria score which is commonly used for ACM diagnosis (rs = -0.67, n = 64, p < 0.0001 and rs = -0.71, n = 64, p < 0.0001). In contrast, plakoglobin scores in PLN p.Arg14del patients were comparable to controls (p > 0.209), which suggests differences in underlying etiology. However, for the individual diagnosis of the 'classical' ACM patient, this method might not be discriminative enough to distinguish true patients from variant carriers and controls, because of the high interindividual variability.

Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy-Associated Desmosomal Variants Are Rarely De Novo.

BACKGROUND: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in genes encoding the cardiac desmosomal proteins. Origin of these variants, including de novo mutation rate and extent of founder versus recurrent variants has implications for variant adjudication and clinical care, yet this has never been systematically investigated. METHODS: We identified arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy probands who met 2010 Task Force Criteria and had undergone genotyping that included sequencing of the desmosomal genes (PKP2, DSP, DSG2, DSC2, and JUP) from 3 arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy registries in America and Europe. We classified the desmosomal variants, defined the contribution of unique versus nonunique (ie, not family-specific) P/LP variants, and identified the frequency and characteristics of de novo variants. Next, we haplotyped nonunique variants to determine how often they likely represent a single mutation event in a common ancestor (implied by shared haplotypes) versus multiple mutation events at the same genetic location. RESULTS: Of 501 arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy probands, 322 (64.3%) carried 327 desmosomal P/LP variants. Most variants (n=247, 75.6%, in 245 patients) were identified in more than one proband and, therefore, considered nonunique. For 212/327 variants (64.8%) genetic cascade screening was performed extensively enough to identify the parental origin of the P/LP variant. Only 3 variants were de novo, 2 of which were whole gene deletions. For 24 nonunique P/LP PKP2 variants, haplotyping was conducted in 183 available families. For all 24 variants, multiple seemingly unrelated families sharing identical haplotypes were identified, suggesting that these variants originate from common founders. CONCLUSIONS: Most desmosomal P/LP variants are inherited, nonunique, and originate from ancient founders. Two of 3 de novo variants were large deletions. These observations inform genetic testing, cascade screening, and variant adjudication.

A prediction model for spontaneous regression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2, based on simple clinical parameters.

This study aims to develop a prediction model for spontaneous regression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN 2) lesions based on simple clinicopathological parameters. The study was conducted at Maastricht University Medical Center, the Netherlands. The prediction model was developed in a retrospective cohort of 129 women with a histologic diagnosis of CIN 2 who were managed by watchful waiting for 6 to 24months. Five potential predictors for spontaneous regression were selected based on the literature and expert opinion and were analyzed in a multivariable logistic regression model, followed by backward stepwise deletion based on the Wald test. The prediction model was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. Discriminative capacity and accuracy were tested by assessing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and a calibration plot. Disease regression within 24months was seen in 91 (71%) of 129 patients. A prediction model was developed including the following variables: smoking, Papanicolaou test outcome before the CIN 2 diagnosis, concomitant CIN 1 diagnosis in the same biopsy, and more than 1 biopsy containing CIN 2. Not smoking, Papanicolaou class <3, concomitant CIN 1, and no more than 1 biopsy containing CIN 2 were predictive of disease regression. The AUC was 69.2% (95% confidence interval, 58.5%-79.9%), indicating a moderate discriminative ability of the model. The calibration plot indicated good calibration of the predicted probabilities. This prediction model for spontaneous regression of CIN 2 may aid physicians in the personalized management of these lesions.