Characterizing the role of socioeconomic pathways in shaping future urban heat-related challenges.

Urban dwellers worldwide are increasingly affected by more frequent and intense extreme temperature events, ongoing urbanization, and changes in socioeconomic conditions. Decades of research have shown that vulnerability is a crucial determinant of heat-related risk and mortality in cities, yet assessments of future urban heat-related challenges have largely overlooked the contribution of changes in socioeconomic conditions to future heat-related risk and mortality. The scenario framework for climate change research, made up of socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSPs) combined with climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), facilitates the integration of socioeconomic scenarios into climate risks assessments. In this study, we used Greater Houston (Texas) as a case study to implement the scenario framework at the intra-urban scale. Integrating locally extended SSPs along with a range of sectoral modelling approaches, we combined projections of urban extreme heat - which account for SSP-specific urban heat islands - with projections of future population and vulnerability. We then produced estimates of future heat-related risk and mortality for 2041-2060 (2050s) summers at Census tract level, for multiple combinations of climate and socioeconomic scenarios. Using a scenario matrix, we showed that the projected ~15,738-24,521 future summer excess mortalities compared to 1991-2010 are essentially driven by population growth and changes in vulnerability, with changes in climatic conditions alone being of little influence. We outline methods to apply the new scenario framework at intra-urban scale and to better characterize the contribution of socioeconomic pathways to future urban climate risks. This socio-climatic approach provides comprehensive estimates of future climate risks in urban areas, which are essential for adaptation planning under climatic and socioeconomic uncertainty.

From individual Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Agent Based Models: Modeling multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision-making for water scarcity.

Policy making for complex Social-Ecological Systems (SESs) is a multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision making process. Therefore, proper policy simulation in a SES should consider both the complex behavior of the system and the multi-stakeholders' interventions into the system, which requires integrated methodological approaches. In this study, we simulate impacts of policy options on a farming community facing water scarcity in Rafsanjan, Iran, using an integrated modeling methodology combining an Agent Based Model (ABM) with Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM). First, the behavioral rules of farmers and the causal relations among environmental variables are captured with FCMs that are developed with both qualitative and quantitative data, i.e. farmers' knowledge and empirical data from studies. Then, an ABM is developed to model decisions and actions of farmers and simulate their impacts on overall groundwater use and emigration of farmers in this case study. Finally, the impacts of different policy options are simulated and compared with a baseline scenario. The results suggest that a policy of facilitating farmers' participation in management and control of their groundwater use leads to the highest reduction of groundwater use and would help to secure farmers' activities in Rafsanjan. Our approach covers four main aspects that are crucial for policy simulation in SESs: 1) causal relationships, 2) feedback mechanisms, 3) social-spatial heterogeneity and 4) temporal dynamics. This approach is particularly useful for ex-ante policy options analysis.

Interactive Cumulative Burden Assessment: Engaging Stakeholders in an Adaptive, Participatory and Transdisciplinary Approach.

Cumulative burden assessment (CuBA) has the potential to inform planning and decision-making on health disparities related to multiple environmental burdens. However, scholars have raised concerns about the social complexity to be dealt with while conducting CuBA, suggesting that it should be addressed in an adaptive, participatory and transdisciplinary (APT) approach. APT calls for deliberation among stakeholders by engaging them in a process of social learning and knowledge co-production. We propose an interactive stakeholder-based approach that facilitates a science-based stakeholder dialogue as an interface for combining different knowledge domains and engendering social learning in CuBA processes. Our approach allows participants to interact with each other using a flexible and auditable CuBA model implemented within a shared workspace. In two workshops we explored the usefulness and practicality of the approach. Results show that stakeholders were enabled to deliberate on cumulative burdens collaboratively, to learn about the technical uncertainties and social challenges associated with CuBA, and to co-produce knowledge in a realm of both technical and societal challenges. The paper identifies potential benefits relevant for responding to social complexity in the CuBA and further recommends exploration of how our approach can enable or constraint social learning and knowledge co-production in CuBA processes under various institutional, social and political contexts.

Do Inequalities in Neighborhood Walkability Drive Disparities in Older Adults' Outdoor Walking?

Older residents of high-deprivation areas walk less than those of low-deprivation areas. Previous research has shown that neighborhood built environment may support and encourage outdoor walking. The extent to which the built environment supports and encourages walking is called "walkability". This study examines inequalities in neighborhood walkability in high- versus low-deprivation areas and their possible influences on disparities in older adults' outdoor walking levels. For this purpose, it focuses on specific neighborhood built environment attributes (residential density, land-use mix and intensity, street connectivity, and retail density) relevant to neighborhood walkability. It applied a mixed-method approach, included 173 participants (≥65 years), and used a Geographic Information System (GIS) and walking interviews (with a sub-sample) to objectively and subjectively measure neighborhood built environment attributes. Outdoor walking levels were measured by using the Geographic Positioning System (GPS) technology. Data on personal characteristics was collected by completing a questionnaire. The results show that inequalities in certain land-use intensity (i.e., green spaces, recreation centers, schools and industries) in high- versus low-deprivation areas may influence disparities in older adults' outdoor walking levels. Modifying neighborhood land use intensity may help to encourage outdoor walking in high-deprivation areas.

A structured participatory method to support policy option analysis in a social-ecological system.

In this study we demonstrate how to support policy option analysis for a problematic Social-Ecological System (SES) with the help of stakeholder participation. SES sustainability problems 1) are highly complex, 2) may lack reliable data, 3) encompass conflicting interests and 4) may require contradictory management interventions. Our approach uses a structured participatory method combining the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model together with Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) to capture the complexity of the system and simplify its representation for simulation and policy option analysis. Using this novel mixed-method was useful in dealing with above-mentioned characteristics of the complex SES problems. The method was applied in a case study of water scarcity in Rafsanjan, Iran. FCMs were produced for 60 individual farmers and 40 individual researchers and policy makers. Our mixed-method analysis reveals similarities and differences of stakeholder knowledge and problem perception, and simulates the impacts of alternative policy options according to each group's perception. The final result of our case study indicates that farmers in Rafsanjan strongly believe in the impact of economic diversification on reducing water shortage, but they have a low level of trust in the ability of the government to regulate and control water usage, whereas the policy makers and researchers still believe in the role of government control and monitoring policies to deal with water scarcity in Rafsanjan.

Older Adults' Outdoor Walking: Inequalities in Neighbourhood Safety, Pedestrian Infrastructure and Aesthetics.

Older adults living in high-deprivation areas walk less than those living in low-deprivation areas. Previous research has shown that older adults' outdoor walking levels are related to the neighbourhood built environment. This study examines inequalities in perceived built environment attributes (i.e., safety, pedestrian infrastructure and aesthetics) and their possible influences on disparities in older adults' outdoor walking levels in low- and high-deprivation areas of Birmingham, United Kingdom. It applied a mixed-method approach, included 173 participants (65 years and over), used GPS technology to measure outdoor walking levels, used questionnaires (for all participants) and conducted walking interviews (with a sub-sample) to collect data on perceived neighbourhood built environment attributes. The results show inequalities in perceived neighbourhood safety, pedestrian infrastructure and aesthetics in high- versus low-deprivation areas and demonstrate that they may influence disparities in participants' outdoor walking levels. Improvements of perceived neighbourhood safety, pedestrian infrastructure and aesthetic in high-deprivation areas are encouraged.

Environmental Health Related Socio-Spatial Inequalities: Identifying "Hotspots" of Environmental Burdens and Social Vulnerability.

Differential exposure to multiple environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across a population with varying vulnerability can contribute heavily to health inequalities. Particularly relevant are areas with high cumulative burdens and high social vulnerability termed as "hotspots". This paper develops an index-based approach to assess these multiple burdens and benefits in combination with vulnerability factors at detailed intra-urban level. The method is applied to the city of Dortmund, Germany. Using non-spatial and spatial methods we assessed inequalities and identified "hotspot" areas in the city. We found modest inequalities burdening higher vulnerable groups in Dortmund (CI = -0.020 at p < 0.05). At the detailed intra-urban level, however, inequalities showed strong geographical patterns. Large numbers of "hotspots" exist in the northern part of the city compared to the southern part. A holistic assessment, particularly at a detailed local level, considering both environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across the population with the different vulnerability, is essential to inform environmental justice debates and to mobilize local stakeholders. Locating "hotspot" areas at this detailed spatial level can serve as a basis to develop interventions that target vulnerable groups to ensure a health conducive equal environment.

The effects of an edgeline on speed and lateral position: a meta-analysis.

This paper presents a meta-analysis of studies that have evaluated the effects of an edgeline on speed and lateral position of motorised road users. Together with many other study characteristics, 41 estimates of the effects of an edgeline on speed and 65 on lateral position were extracted from the studies. The results of the evaluation studies show a great variety in effects. Both negative and positive effects on speed and lateral position were found; amongst others, increases in speed up to 10.6 km/h, as well as decreases in speed up to 5.0 km/h, and shifts of the lateral position towards the centre of the road up to 30 cm, as well as shifts towards the edge of the road up to 35 cm. Further analyses resulted in the determination of study characteristics that influence the effects of an edgeline on speed and lateral position. It is concluded that the effects of an edgeline on speed are related to the presence of a centreline. Applying an edgeline to a road without a centreline increases the speed of road users, and replacing a centreline by an edgeline decreases the speed. Results with respect to adding an edgeline to a road with a centreline were unclear. Another conclusion is that shoulder width and road environment contribute to the effects of an edgeline on lateral position. In combination with wide shoulders or buildings and/or trees next to the road, edgelines lead to shifts of the lateral position towards the edge of the road, and in combination with narrow shoulders or open fields, edgelines lead to shifts towards the centre of the road.