Participatory modelling of scenarios to restore nitrogen cycles in a nutrient-saturated area.

This paper aims to find socially acceptable solutions of circularity as measure to reduce nitrogen (N) losses and prevent environmental damage by combining participatory modelling and scenario Substance Flow Analyses (SFA). A local perspective was taken on the agro-food-waste system in the animal production-dominated German district Cleves. Three scenarios were programmed as Monte Carlo simulation of SFA with stakeholder input regarding crop allocation, livestock composition, livestock reduction, and manure allocation following the elimination of feed imports. The three scenarios either utilized the unaltered stakeholder input (PS), altered crop allocation to satisfy the demand for feed (CBS), or adjusted the livestock numbers to match the locally available feed (LBS). In the reference year (2020) agricultural losses amounted to 68 kg N year-1 ha-1 agricultural land and 116 kg N in feed was imported year-1 ha-1 agricultural land. In the PS feed import elimination led to deficits in feed availability. The LBS showed the biggest reduction of agricultural N losses and improved N use efficiency (+6 %), however agricultural losses were still high (50 kg N year-1 ha-1 agricultural land). The results show a limited effect of feed import elimination on N losses if no further measures are taken, such as reduced consumption of animal-based products. Further, the study shows that it is important to improve stakeholders' knowledge about approaches to circular agro-food-waste systems. The discrepancy between stakeholder visions and N circularity provide policy makers with the recommendation to improve stakeholders' visions of a circular agro-food-waste system.

Interventions to increase circularity and reduce environmental impacts in food systems.

Applying specific circularity interventions to the food system may have environmental benefits. Using an iterative linear food system optimisation model (FOODSOM), we assess how changes in human diets, imports and exports, and the utilisation of waste streams impact land use and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). After including these circularity principles, land use and GHG emissions were on average 40% and 68% lower than in the current food system, primarily driven by a reduction in production volumes and a shift towards feeding the domestic population. Shifting from the current diet to a circular diet decreased land use with 43% and GHG emissions with 52%. Allowing up to half of each nutrient in the human diet to be imported, while balancing imports with equal exports in terms of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, also decreased land use (up to 34%) and GHG emissions (up to 26%) compared to no imported food. Our findings show that circularity interventions should not be implemented mutually exclusively; by combining a circular diet with imported food and fully utilising waste streams, the lowest land use and GHG emissions can be realised.

Risk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions.

Carbon sequestration in grasslands has been proposed as an important means to offset greenhouse gas emissions from ruminant systems. To understand the potential and limitations of this strategy, we need to acknowledge that soil carbon sequestration is a time-limited benefit, and there are intrinsic differences between short- and long-lived greenhouse gases. Here, our analysis shows that one tonne of carbon sequestrated can offset radiative forcing of a continuous emission of 0.99 kg methane or 0.1 kg nitrous oxide per year over 100 years. About 135 gigatonnes of carbon is required to offset the continuous methane and nitrous oxide emissions from ruminant sector worldwide, nearly twice the current global carbon stock in managed grasslands. For various regions, grassland carbon stocks would need to increase by approximately 25% - 2,000%, indicating that solely relying on carbon sequestration in grasslands to offset warming effect of emissions from current ruminant systems is not feasible.

Recoupling livestock and feed production in the Netherlands to reduce environmental impacts.

In many places on earth, livestock and feed production are decoupled, as feed is grown in one region and fed to livestock in another. This disrupts nutrient cycles by depleting resources in feed producing regions and accumulating resources in livestock areas, which leads to environmental degradation. One solution is to recouple livestock and feed production at a more local level, which enhances nutrient circularity. Recoupling livestock and feed production creates a natural ceiling for livestock numbers based on the feed producing capacity of a region. In this study we assess the consequences of recoupling livestock and feed production (i.e., by avoiding the import and export of animal feed) on ammonia and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with and without feed-food competition. To this end, we used FOODSOM, an agro-ecological food system optimisation model representing the Dutch food system in this study. The Netherlands is one example of a region with high livestock densities and resource accumulation. We found that recoupling decreased livestock numbers (beef cattle: -100 %; dairy cattle: -29 %; broiler chickens: -57 %; laying hens: -67 %; pigs: -62 %; sheep -100 %) and animal-sourced food exports (-59 %) while still meeting the current human diet in the Netherlands. Consequently, ammonia emissions and GHG emissions decreased, and the nitrogen use efficiency increased from 31 % to 38 % at the food systems level. Recoupling alone was almost sufficient to meet national emission targets. Fully meeting these targets required further small changes in livestock numbers. Avoiding feed-food competition decreased livestock productivity and GHG emissions but did not improve nitrogen use efficiency. Total meat production could not meet domestic consumption levels while avoiding feed-food competition, and resulted in additional beef cattle. We show that recoupling livestock and feed production is a promising next step to enhance circularity while decreasing agricultures environmental impact.

Effect of different cleaning procedures on water use and bacterial levels in weaner pig pens.

Pork is one of the most globally eaten meats and the pig production chain contributes significantly to the water footprint of livestock production. However, very little knowledge is available about the on-farm factors that influence freshwater use in the pig production chain. An experiment was conducted to quantify the effect of three different washing treatments on freshwater use, bacterial levels [(total bacterial counts; TBC), Enterobacteriaceae and Staphylococcus] and cleaning time in washing of pens for weaning pigs. Three weaner rooms were selected with each room having 10 pens and a capacity to hold up to 14 pigs each. Pigs were weaned and kept in the pens for 7 weeks. Finally, the pens were cleaned before the next batch of pigs moved in. The washing treatments used were power washing and disinfection (WASH); presoaking followed by power washing and disinfection (SOAK), and presoaking followed by detergent, power washing and disinfection (SOAK + DETER). A water meter was used to collect water use data and swab samples were taken to determine the bacterial levels. The results showed that there was no overall effect of washing treatments on water use. However, there was an effect of treatment on the washing time (p<0.01) with SOAK and SOAK+DETER reducing the washing time per pen by 2.3 minutes (14%) and 4.2 minutes (27%) compared to WASH. Nonetheless, there was an effect of sampling time (before or after washing) (p<0.001) on the levels of TBC and Staphylococcus, but no effect was seen on Enterobacteriaceae levels. Thus, the washing treatments used in this study had no effect on the water use of the pork production chain. Although there was no difference in both water use and bacterial load, from a producer perspective, presoaking and detergent use can save time and labour costs, so this would be the preferred option.

The effect of intensive grazing systems on the rising plate meter calibration for perennial ryegrass pastures.

The rising plate meter (RPM) is used to measure grass height, which subsequently is used in a calibration equation to estimate herbage mass (HM), an important parameter for optimization of feed management in grazing systems. The RPM is placed on the sward and measures the resistance of the sward toward the plate, which depends not only on grass length, but also on sward structure. The accuracy of the calibration equation for the RPM to estimate HM across grazing systems, however, has not yet been evaluated. Therefore, our aim was to analyze the effect of intensive grazing systems on RPM calibration for perennial ryegrass pastures. To do so, we studied 2 grazing systems: compartmented continuous grazing (CCG) and strip grazing (SG), which differ in key grazing characteristics, such as pre- and post-grazing heights and period of regrowth, that may influence tiller density and vertical flexibility of the sward. The experiment was performed from April until October in 2016 and 2017 with 60 dairy cows, at a fixed stocking rate of 7.5 cows per hectare. To calibrate the RPM, 256 direct measurements of HM >4 cm (i.e., above stubble) were collected by cutting and weighing plots of grass for CCG and SG. Our main interest was in the HM above stubble because this is consumed by cows. Herbage mass <4 cm represents the stubble left after grazing. Differences in HM <4 cm may (partially) explain differences in HM >4 cm between the grazing systems. Therefore, HM <4 cm was additionally measured on 4 out of every 8 plots per grazing system by cutting out quadrats to 0 cm with an electric grass trimmer. Our results showed an average error margin in our calibration equations of 25 to 31%, expressed as the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) as a percentage of the observed HM >4 cm. Differences between grazing systems were relatively small, and including grazing system as a factor in the regression model to explain the increase in HM per centimeter of grass did not reduce the RMSEP of the model to any relevant extent. On the other hand, HM <4 cm was significantly greater on CCG compared with SG, with 2,042 kg of DM per hectare for CCG and 1,676 kg of DM per hectare for SG. The HM <4 cm, however, is not used for grazing, and this difference was not reflected in the HM >4 cm. Our results indicate that we can use one region-specific calibration equation for perennial ryegrass pastures across intensive grazing systems, despite relatively large differences in pre- and post-grazing heights and period of regrowth.

Correcting fresh grass allowance for rejected patches due to excreta in intensive grazing systems for dairy cows.

Dairy farms with intensive grazing systems combine grazing with supplemental feeding, which can be challenging because an incorrect balance between fresh grass allowance and feed supplementation results in inefficient use of the pasture, lower feed efficiency, and potential decreases in animal production. When estimating fresh grass allowance, we currently do not correct for the formation of rejected patches (RP) surrounding excreta, which can lead to overestimation of the potential fresh grass intake and hampers optimal grazing. In this study, therefore, we aim to quantify the formation of RP in intensive grazing systems and improve the quantification of fresh grass allowance. To do so, we studied 2 grazing systems (i.e., compartmented continuous grazing and strip grazing) that differ in key grazing characteristics, such as pre- and post-grazing heights and period of regrowth. The experiment was performed from April to October in 2016 and 2017 with 60 dairy cows at a fixed stocking rate of 7.5 cows/ha. Average pre-grazing grass height was measured with a rising plate meter. To quantify the formation of RP after grazing, individual grass height measurements were conducted after grazing and classified as RP or not, based on visual assessment. Our analysis showed that the average percentage of grassland covered with RP increased from around 22% at the end of May to around 43% at the end of July/beginning of August, and these percentages do not differ across grazing systems. The percentage of grassland covered with RP should be subtracted from the total grazed area to better estimate true fresh grass allowance.

Effects of dry period length on production, cash flows and greenhouse gas emissions of the dairy herd: A dynamic stochastic simulation model.

Shortening or omitting the dry period of dairy cows improves metabolic health in early lactation and reduces management transitions for dairy cows. The success of implementation of these strategies depends on their impact on milk yield and farm profitability. Insight in these impacts is valuable for informed decision-making by farmers. The aim of this study was to investigate how shortening or omitting the dry period of dairy cows affects production and cash flows at the herd level, and greenhouse gas emissions per unit of milk, using a dynamic stochastic simulation model. The effects of dry period length on milk yield and calving interval assumed in this model were derived from actual performance of commercial dairy cows over multiple lactations. The model simulated lactations, and calving and culling events of individual cows for herds of 100 cows. Herds were simulated for 5 years with a dry period of 56 (conventional), 28 or 0 days (n = 50 herds each). Partial cash flows were computed from revenues from sold milk, calves, and culled cows, and costs from feed and rearing youngstock. Greenhouse gas emissions were computed using a life cycle approach. A dry period of 28 days reduced milk production of the herd by 3.0% in years 2 through 5, compared with a dry period of 56 days. A dry period of 0 days reduced milk production by 3.5% in years 3 through 5, after a dip in milk production of 6.9% in year 2. On average, dry periods of 28 and 0 days reduced partial cash flows by €1,249 and €1,632 per herd per year, and increased greenhouse gas emissions by 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. Considering the potential for enhancing cow welfare, these negative impacts of shortening or omitting the dry period seem justifiable, and they might even be offset by improved health.