ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis in which we compared a preoperative [18F]Fluorocholine PET/CT-based one-stop-shop imaging strategy with current best practice in which [18F]Fluorocholine PET/CT is only recommended after negative or inconclusive [99mTc]Tc-methoxy isobutyl isonitrile SPECT/CT for patients suffering from primary hyperparathyroidism. We investigated whether the one-stop-shop strategy performs as well as current best practice but at lower costs. METHODS: We developed a cohort-level state transition model to evaluate both imaging strategies respecting an intraoperative parathyroid hormone monitored treatment setting as well as a traditional treatment setting. The model reflects patients' hospital journeys after biochemically diagnosed primary hyperparathyroidism. A cycle length of twelve months and a lifetime horizon were used. We conducted probabilistic analyses simulating 50,000 cohorts to assess joint parameter uncertainty. The incremental net monetary benefit and cost for each quality-adjusted life year were estimated. Furthermore, threshold analyses regarding the tariff of [18F]Fluorocholine PET/CT and the sensitivity of [99mTc]Tc-methoxy isobutyl isonitrile SPECT/CT were performed. RESULTS: The simulated long-term health effects and costs were similar for both imaging strategies. Accordingly, there was no incremental net monetary benefit and the one-stop-shop strategy did not result in lower costs. These results applied to both treatment settings. The threshold analysis indicated that a tariff of 885 for [18F]Fluorocholine PET/CT was required to be cost-effective compared to current best practice. CONCLUSION: Both preoperative imaging strategies can be used interchangeably. Daily clinical practice grounds such as available local resources and patient preferences should inform policy-making on whether a hospital should implement the one-stop-shop imaging strategy.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Risk-prediction tools allow classifying individuals into risk groups based on risk thresholds. Such risk categorization is often used to inform screening schemes by offering screening only to individuals at increased risk of harmful events. Adding information concerning an individual's risk development over time would allow assessing not just who to screen but also when to screen. This paper illustrates the value of personalised, time-dependent risk predictions to optimize risk-based screening schemes. METHODS: In a simulation analysis, two different time-dependent risk-based screening approaches are compared to another risk-based, but time-independent approach regarding their impact on screening efficiency. For this purpose, 81 scenarios featuring 5000 patients with five consecutive annual risk estimations for a hypothetical disease D are simulated, using different parameters to model disease progression and risk distribution. This simulation analysis is validated using a real-world clinical case study based on German breast cancer patients and the INFLUENCE-nomogram for locoregional breast cancer recurrence. RESULTS: If individual risk estimations were used to personalise screening for a disease D aiming at detecting a 90% of curable cases, more than 20% of screening examinations could be avoided relative to a conventional uninformed approach, depending on the simulated scenario. Whereas an individual but time-independent approach is associated with acceptable saving potentials in case of a relatively homogenous risk distribution, the time-dependent approaches are superior when the complexity of a scenario increases. With slowly progressing diseases, risk-accumulation over time needs to be considered to achieve the highest screening efficiency on population level, for rapidly progressing diseases, an interval-specific approach is superior. The possible benefits of time-dependent risk-based screening were confirmed in the real-world clinical case study. CONCLUSIONS: Appropriate approaches to use time-dependent risk predictions may considerably enhance screening efficiency on individual and population level. Therefore, predicting risk development over time should be supported by future prediction tools and be incorporated in decision algorithms.
Subject(s)
Breast Neoplasms , Early Detection of Cancer , Breast Neoplasms/diagnosis , Female , Humans , Mass Screening , Neoplasm Recurrence, Local , RegistriesABSTRACT
(1) Background: Up to 50% of patients with colorectal cancer either have synchronous colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) or develop CRLM over the course of their disease. Surgery and thermal ablation are the most common local treatment options of choice. Despite development and improvement in local treatment options, (local) recurrence remains a significant clinical problem. Many different imaging modalities can be used in the follow-up after treatment of CRLM, lacking evidence-based international consensus on the modality of choice. In this systematic review, we evaluated 18F-FDG-PET-CT performance after surgical resection, thermal ablation, radioembolization, and neoadjuvant and palliative chemotherapy based on current published literature. (2) Methods: A systematic literature search was performed on the PubMed database. (3) Results: A total of 31 original articles were included in the analysis. Only one suitable study was found describing the role of 18F-FDG-PET-CT after surgery, which makes it hard to draw a firm conclusion. 18F-FDG-PET-CT showed to be of additional value in the follow-up after thermal ablation, palliative chemotherapy, and radioembolization. 18F-FDG-PET-CT was found to be a poor to moderate predictor of pathologic response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. (4) Conclusions: 18F-FDG-PET-CT is superior to conventional morphological imaging modalities in the early detection of residual disease after thermal ablation and in the treatment evaluation and prediction of prognosis during palliative chemotherapy and after radioembolization, and 18F-FDG-PET-CT could be considered in selected cases after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgical resection.
