Use of Electronic Medical Records to Estimate Changes in Pregnancy and Birth Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility rates has been suggested in the lay press and anticipated based on documented decreases in fertility and pregnancy rates during previous major societal and economic shifts. Anticipatory planning for birth rates is important for health care systems and government agencies to accurately estimate size of economy and model working and/or aging populations. Objective: To use projection modeling based on electronic health care records in a large US university medical center to estimate changes in pregnancy and birth rates prior to and after the COVID-19 pandemic societal lockdowns. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included all pregnancy episodes within a single US academic health care system retrospectively from 2017 and modeled prospectively to 2021. Data were analyzed September 2021. Exposures: Pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic societal shutdown measures. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was number of new pregnancy episodes initiated within the health care system and use of those episodes to project birth volumes. Interrupted time series analysis was used to assess the degree to which COVID-19 societal changes may have factored into pregnancy episode volume. Potential reasons for the changes in volumes were compared with historical pregnancy volumes, including delays in starting prenatal care, interruptions in reproductive endocrinology and infertility services, and preterm birth rates. Results: This cohort study documented a steadily increasing number of pregnancy episodes over the study period, from 4100 pregnancies in 2017 to 4620 in 2020 (28 284 total pregnancies; median maternal [interquartile range] age, 30 [27-34] years; 18 728 [66.2%] White women, 3794 [13.4%] Black women; 2177 [7.7%] Asian women). A 14% reduction in pregnancy episode initiation was observed after the societal shutdown of the COVID-19 pandemic (risk ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.79-0.92; P < .001). This decrease appeared to be due to a decrease in conceptions that followed the March 15 mandated COVID-19 pandemic societal shutdown. Prospective modeling of pregnancies currently suggests that a birth volume surge can be anticipated in summer 2021. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study using electronic medical record surveillance found an initial decline in births associated with the COVID-19 pandemic societal changes and an anticipated increase in birth volume. Future studies can further explore how pregnancy episode volume changes can be monitored and birth rates projected in real-time during major societal events.

Exploring dissociation and oxytocin as pathways between trauma exposure and trauma-related hyperemesis gravidarum: a test-of-concept pilot.

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with gastrointestinal and genitourinary comorbidities. These map onto the somatization disorder symptoms in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders ( American Psychiatric Association, 1994 ) and the dissociative (conversion) disorders symptoms in the International Classification of Diseases taxonomy ( World Health Organization, 2007 ). Hyperemesis gravidarum (HG) is one of these symptoms and a gastrointestinal comorbidity of PTSD occurring in pregnancy. It is an idiopathic condition defined as severe vomiting with dehydration, metabolic imbalance, wasting, and hospital care seeking. HG is more severe than the normative phenomenon of nausea and vomiting of pregnancy. This test-of-concept pilot (N = 25) explored the hypothesis that there is a trauma-related subtype of HG characterized by (a) high levels of dissociative symptoms and (b) altered plasma concentrations of oxytocin. This hypothesis is informed by a theory of posttraumatic oxytocin dysregulation that posits altered oxytocin function as a mechanism of gut smooth muscle peristalsis dysfunction. A 4-group analysis compared controls with nausea and vomiting of pregnancy (NV only) and cases with HG only, NV and PTSD, or HG and PTSD. Oxytocin was correlated with the nausea and vomiting symptom severity score (r = .464, p = .019) and with the dissociation symptom score (r = .570, p = .003). Women in the group with both PTSD and HG (the trauma-related HG subtype) had the highest levels of dissociation and the highest levels of oxytocin. A linear regression model indicated that the independent association of the trauma-related HG subtype with oxytocin level was mediated by high levels of dissociative symptoms.

Relative analgesic potencies of levobupivacaine and ropivacaine for epidural analgesia in labor.

BACKGROUND: The minimum local analgesic concentration has been defined as the median effective local analgesic concentration (EC50) in a 20-ml volume for epidural analgesia in the first stage of labor. The aim of this study was to assess the relative analgesic potencies of epidural levobupivacaine and ropivacaine by determination of their respective minimum local analgesic concentrations. METHODS: Parturients at 7 cm of cervical dilation or less who requested epidural analgesia were allocated to one of two groups in this double-blind, randomized, prospective study. After lumbar epidural catheter placement, 20 ml of the test solution was given: levobupivacaine (n = 35) or ropivacaine (n = 35). The concentration of local anesthetic was determined by the response of the previous patient in that group to a higher or lower concentration using up-down sequential allocation. Analgesic efficacy was assessed using 100-mm visual analog pain scale scores, with 10 mm or less within 30 min defined as effective. An effective result directed a 0.01% wt/vol decrement for the next patient. An ineffective result directed a 0.01% wt/vol increment. RESULTS: Of 105 women enrolled, 35 were excluded, leaving 70 for analysis. The minimum local analgesic concentration of levobupivacaine was 0.087% wt/vol (95% CI, 0.081-0.094%), and the minimum local analgesic concentration of ropivacaine was 0.089% wt/vol (95% CI, 0.075-0.103%). Levobupivacaine and ropivacaine were of similar potency with a ropivacaine:levobupivacaine potency ratio of 0.98 (95% CI, 0.80-1.20). No difference in motor effects was observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that levobupivacaine and ropivacaine are of similar potency for epidural analgesia in the first stage of labor.

Effect of epidural epinephrine on the minimum local analgesic concentration of epidural bupivacaine in labor.

BACKGROUND: The minimum local analgesic concentration (MLAC) has been defined as the median effective local analgesic concentration in a 20-ml volume for epidural analgesia in the first stage of labor. The aim of this study was to determine the local anesthetic-sparing efficacy of epidural epinephrine by its effect on the MLAC of bupivacaine. METHODS: In this double-blind, randomized, prospective study, 70 parturients who were at 7 cm or less cervical dilation and who requested epidural analgesia were allocated to one of two groups. After lumbar epidural catheter placement, 20 ml bupivacaine (n = 35) or bupivacaine with epinephrine 1:300,000 (n = 35) was administered. The concentration of bupivacaine was determined by the response of the previous patient in that group to a higher or lower concentration using up-down sequential allocation. Analgesic efficacy was assessed using 100-mm visual analog pain scores, with 10 mm or less within 30 min defined as effective. RESULTS: The MLAC of bupivacaine alone was 0.091% wt/vol (95% confidence interval, 0.081-0.102). The addition of epinephrine 1:300,000 (66.7 microg) resulted in a significant reduction (P < 0.01) in the MLAC of bupivacaine to 0.065% wt/vol (95% confidence interval, 0.047-0.083). The lowest maternal blood pressure was significantly lower in the bupivacaine-epinephrine group (P = 0.03). There were statistically significant reductions in fetal heart rate (P = 0.011) in the bupivacaine-epinephrine group that were not clinically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of epidural epinephrine 1:300,000 (66 microg) resulted in a significant 29% reduction in the MLAC of bupivacaine. Coincident reductions in fetal heart rate and maternal blood pressure were also observed that were not clinically significant.