Prognostic factors and prediction models for hospitalisation and all-cause mortality in adults presenting to primary care with a lower respiratory tract infection: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and synthesise relevant existing prognostic factors (PF) and prediction models (PM) for hospitalisation and all-cause mortality within 90 days in primary care patients with acute lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI). DESIGN: Systematic review. METHODS: Systematic searches of MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library were performed. All PF and PM studies on the risk of hospitalisation or all-cause mortality within 90 days in adult primary care LRTI patients were included. The risk of bias was assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool and Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool tools for PF and PM studies, respectively. The results of included PF and PM studies were descriptively summarised. RESULTS: Of 2799 unique records identified, 16 were included: 9 PF studies, 6 PM studies and 1 combination of both. The risk of bias was judged high for all studies, mainly due to limitations in the analysis domain. Based on reported multivariable associations in PF studies, increasing age, sex, current smoking, diabetes, a history of stroke, cancer or heart failure, previous hospitalisation, influenza vaccination (negative association), current use of systemic corticosteroids, recent antibiotic use, respiratory rate ≥25/min and diagnosis of pneumonia were identified as most promising candidate predictors. One newly developed PM was externally validated (c statistic 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.78) whereas the previously hospital-derived CRB-65 was externally validated in primary care in five studies (c statistic ranging from 0.72 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.81) to 0.79 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.92)). None of the PM studies reported measures of model calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of existing models for individualised risk prediction of 90-day hospitalisation or mortality in primary care LRTI patients in everyday practice is hampered by incomplete assessment of model performance. The identified candidate predictors provide useful information for clinicians and warrant consideration when developing or updating PMs using state-of-the-art development and validation techniques. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022341233.

Comparison of gene expression profiles predicting progression in breast cancer patients treated with tamoxifen.

BACKGROUND: Molecular signatures that predict outcome in tamoxifen treated breast cancer patients have been identified. For the first time, we compared these response profiles in an independent cohort of (neo)adjuvant systemic treatment naïve breast cancer patients treated with first-line tamoxifen for metastatic disease. METHODS: From a consecutive series of 246 estrogen receptor (ER) positive primary tumors, gene expression profiling was performed on available frozen tumors using 44K oligoarrays (n = 69). A 78-gene tamoxifen response profile (formerly consisting of 81 cDNA-clones), a 21-gene set (microarray-based Recurrence Score), as well as the HOXB13-IL17BR ratio (Two-Gene-Index, RT-PCR) were analyzed. Performance of signatures in relation to time to progression (TTP) was compared with standard immunohistochemical (IHC) markers: ER, progesterone receptor (PgR) and HER2. RESULTS: In univariate analyses, the 78-gene tamoxifen response profile, 21-gene set and HOXB13-IL17BR ratio were all significantly associated with TTP with hazard ratios of 2.2 (95% CI 1.3-3.7, P = 0.005), 2.3 (95% CI 1.3-4.0, P = 0.003) and 4.2 (95% CI 1.4-12.3, P = 0.009), respectively. The concordance among the three classifiers was relatively low, they classified only 45-61% of patients in the same category. In multivariate analyses, the association remained significant for the 78-gene profile and the 21-gene set after adjusting for ER and PgR. CONCLUSION: The 78-gene tamoxifen response profile, the 21-gene set and the HOXB13-IL17BR ratio were all significantly associated with TTP in an independent patient series treated with tamoxifen. The addition of multigene assays to ER (IHC) improves the prediction of outcome in tamoxifen treated patients and deserves incorporation in future clinical studies.