Insights from an autism imaging biomarker challenge: Promises and threats to biomarker discovery.

MRI has been extensively used to identify anatomical and functional differences in Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Yet, many of these findings have proven difficult to replicate because studies rely on small cohorts and are built on many complex, undisclosed, analytic choices. We conducted an international challenge to predict ASD diagnosis from MRI data, where we provided preprocessed anatomical and functional MRI data from > 2,000 individuals. Evaluation of the predictions was rigorously blinded. 146 challengers submitted prediction algorithms, which were evaluated at the end of the challenge using unseen data and an additional acquisition site. On the best algorithms, we studied the importance of MRI modalities, brain regions, and sample size. We found evidence that MRI could predict ASD diagnosis: the 10 best algorithms reliably predicted diagnosis with AUC∼0.80 - far superior to what can be currently obtained using genotyping data in cohorts 20-times larger. We observed that functional MRI was more important for prediction than anatomical MRI, and that increasing sample size steadily increased prediction accuracy, providing an efficient strategy to improve biomarkers. We also observed that despite a strong incentive to generalise to unseen data, model development on a given dataset faces the risk of overfitting: performing well in cross-validation on the data at hand, but not generalising. Finally, we were able to predict ASD diagnosis on an external sample added after the end of the challenge (EU-AIMS), although with a lower prediction accuracy (AUC=0.72). This indicates that despite being based on a large multisite cohort, our challenge still produced biomarkers fragile in the face of dataset shifts.

Development of a land use regression model for black carbon using mobile monitoring data and its application to pollution-avoiding routing.

Black carbon is often used as an indicator for combustion-related air pollution. In urban environments, on-road black carbon concentrations have a large spatial variability, suggesting that the personal exposure of a cyclist to black carbon can heavily depend on the route that is chosen to reach a destination. In this paper, we describe the development of a cyclist routing procedure that minimizes personal exposure to black carbon. Firstly, a land use regression model for predicting black carbon concentrations in an urban environment is developed using mobile monitoring data, collected by cyclists. The optimal model is selected and validated using a spatially stratified cross-validation scheme. The resulting model is integrated in a dedicated routing procedure that minimizes personal exposure to black carbon during cycling. The best model obtains a coefficient of multiple correlation of R=0.520. Simulations with the black carbon exposure minimizing routing procedure indicate that the inhaled amount of black carbon is reduced by 1.58% on average as compared to the shortest-path route, with extreme cases where a reduction of up to 13.35% is obtained. Moreover, we observed that the average exposure to black carbon and the exposure to local peak concentrations on a route are competing objectives, and propose a parametrized cost function for the routing problem that allows for a gradual transition from routes that minimize average exposure to routes that minimize peak exposure.

Participatory Patterns in an International Air Quality Monitoring Initiative.

The issue of sustainability is at the top of the political and societal agenda, being considered of extreme importance and urgency. Human individual action impacts the environment both locally (e.g., local air/water quality, noise disturbance) and globally (e.g., climate change, resource use). Urban environments represent a crucial example, with an increasing realization that the most effective way of producing a change is involving the citizens themselves in monitoring campaigns (a citizen science bottom-up approach). This is possible by developing novel technologies and IT infrastructures enabling large citizen participation. Here, in the wider framework of one of the first such projects, we show results from an international competition where citizens were involved in mobile air pollution monitoring using low cost sensing devices, combined with a web-based game to monitor perceived levels of pollution. Measures of shift in perceptions over the course of the campaign are provided, together with insights into participatory patterns emerging from this study. Interesting effects related to inertia and to direct involvement in measurement activities rather than indirect information exposure are also highlighted, indicating that direct involvement can enhance learning and environmental awareness. In the future, this could result in better adoption of policies towards decreasing pollution.