Quantitative Palynology Informing Conservation Ecology in the Bohemian/Bavarian Forests of Central Europe.

In 1927, the first pollen diagram was published from the Bohemian/Bavarian Forest region of Central Europe, providing one of the first qualitative views of the long-term vegetation development in the region. Since then significant methodological advances in quantitative approaches such as pollen influx and pollen-based vegetation models (e.g., Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm, LRA) have contributed to enhance our understanding of temporal and spatial ecology. These types of quantitative reconstructions are fundamental for conservation and restoration ecology because they provide long-term perspectives on ecosystem functioning. In the Bohemian/Bavarian Forests, forest managers have a goal to restore the original forest composition at mid-elevation forests, yet they rely on natural potential vegetation maps that do not take into account long-term vegetation dynamics. Here we reconstruct the Holocene history of forest composition and discuss the implications the LRA has for regional forest management and conservation. Two newly analyzed pollen records from Prásilské jezero and Rachelsee were compared to 10 regional peat bogs/mires and two other regional lakes to reconstruct total land-cover abundance at both the regional- and local-scales. The results demonstrate that spruce has been the dominant canopy cover across the region for the past 9,000 years at both high- (>900 m) and mid-elevations (>700-900 m). At the regional-scale inferred from lake records, spruce has comprised an average of ~50% of the total forest canopy; whereas at the more local-scale at mid-elevations, spruce formed ~59%. Beech established ~6,000 cal. years BP while fir established later around 5,500 cal. years BP. Beech and fir growing at mid-elevations reached a maximum land-cover abundance of 24% and 13% roughly 1,000 years ago. Over the past 500 years spruce has comprised ~47% land-cover, while beech and fir comprised ~8% and <5% at mid-elevations. This approach argues for the "natural" development of spruce and fir locally in zones where the paleoecology indicates the persistence of these species for millennia. Contrasting local and regional reconstructions of forest canopy cover points to a patchwork mosaic with local variability in the dominant taxa. Incorporation of paleoecological data in dialogues about biodiversity and ecosystem management is an approach that has wider utility.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations.

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling-Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

The ecological consequences of megafaunal loss: giant tortoises and wetland biodiversity.

The giant tortoises of the Galápagos have become greatly depleted since European discovery of the islands in the 16th Century, with populations declining from an estimated 250 000 to between 8000 and 14 000 in the 1970s. Successful tortoise conservation efforts have focused on species recovery, but ecosystem conservation and restoration requires a better understanding of the wider ecological consequences of this drastic reduction in the archipelago's only large native herbivore. We report the first evidence from palaeoecological records of coprophilous fungal spores of the formerly more extensive geographical range of giant tortoises in the highlands of Santa Cruz Island. Upland tortoise populations on Santa Cruz declined 500-700 years ago, likely the result of human impact or possible climatic change. Former freshwater wetlands, a now limited habitat-type, were found to have converted to Sphagnum bogs concomitant with tortoise loss, subsequently leading to the decline of several now-rare or extinct plant species.

Pollen percentage thresholds of Abies alba based on 13-year annual records of pollen deposition in modified Tauber traps: perspectives of application to fossil situations.

Abies alba (fir), a submontane tree from Central European mountains and uplands, is of special interest for palaeoecological and palaeoclimate interpretations due to its sensitivity to air and soil humidity. Its present distribution limit in the uplands of SE Poland is still a matter of debate. In the Holocene fir expanded to Poland very late, but early fir populations are supposed to occur in the Sumava Mts (Czech Republic). The study aims: to estimate pollen thresholds for fir presence/absence in Bohemia (Czech Republic) and Poland on the basis of modified Tauber pollen traps; to use these thresholds for tracing fir presence in two pollen diagrams from Poland (Slone and Bezedna lakes) in the border zone between the Roztocze region (with fir forest stands today) and Polesie (where fir has never played an important role); and to investigate how the percentage presence/absence threshold can be used to trace the occurrence and abundance of fir trees in the Sumava Mts based on the pollen diagrams of Rokytecká slat' and Mrtvý luh. The fir pollen thresholds estimated in terms of PAR (pollen accumulation rates or pollen influx) range from 843 (grains cm-2 year-1) (Roztocze) to 61 (Krkonose) and 49 (Sumava). Percentage thresholds range from 0.3% in Krkonose where fir trees are not present within 4 km to 22% in fir-dominated woodland of the Roztocze, providing evidence of strong underrepresentation of fir in the pollen deposition. Application of these percentage thresholds to the Slone and Bezedna pollen diagrams indicates that occurrence of fir in the region is possible from 3.5 ky cal BP onwards, though the evidence is not decisive. In the Sumava, a low representation of fir pollen (1-2%) reflecting presence of scattered fir trees was detected as early as ca. 7.0 ky cal BP.

Contrasting species-environment relationships in communities of testate amoebae, bryophytes and vascular plants along the fen-bog gradient.

We studied the vegetation, testate amoebae and abiotic variables (depth of the water table, pH, electrical conductivity, Ca and Mg concentrations of water extracted from mosses) along the bog to extremely rich fen gradient in sub-alpine peatlands of the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps). Testate amoeba diversity was correlated to that of mosses but not of vascular plants. Diversity peaked in rich fen for testate amoebae and in extremely rich fen for mosses, while for testate amoebae and mosses it was lowest in bog but for vascular plants in extremely rich fen. Multiple factor and redundancy analyses (RDA) revealed a stronger correlation of testate amoebae than of vegetation to water table and hydrochemical variables and relatively strong correlation between testate amoeba and moss community data. In RDA, hydrochemical variables explained a higher proportion of the testate amoeba and moss data than water table depth. Abiotic variables explained a higher percentage of the species data for testate amoebae (30.3% or 19.5% for binary data) than for mosses (13.4%) and vascular plants (10%). These results show that (1) vascular plant, moss and testate amoeba communities respond differently to ecological gradients in peatlands and (2) testate amoebae are more strongly related than vascular plants to the abiotic factors at the mire surface. These differences are related to vertical trophic gradients and associated niche differentiation.

Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia.

The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.