Avoiding Hospital Admissions and Delayed Transfers of Care by Improved Access to Intermediate Care: A Simulation Study.

OBJECTIVE: The current waiting times for intermediate care in the Netherlands prohibit timely access, leading to unwanted and costly hospital admissions. We propose alternative policies for improvement of intermediate care and estimate the effects on the waiting times, hospitalization, and the number of patient replacements. DESIGN: Simulation study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: For our case study, data were used of older adults who received intermediate care in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, in 2019. For this target group, in- and outflows and patient characteristics were identified. METHODS: A process map of the main pathways into and out of the intermediate care was obtained and a discrete event simulation (DES) was built. We demonstrate the use of our DES for intermediate care by evaluating possible policy changes for a real-life case study in Amsterdam. RESULTS: By means of a sensitivity analysis with the DES, we show that in Amsterdam the waiting times are not a result of a lack in bed capacity but are due to an inefficient triage and application process. Older adults have to wait a median of 1.8 days for admission, leading to hospitalization. If the application process becomes more efficient and evening and weekend admissions are allowed, we find that unwanted hospitalization can be decreased substantially. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: In this study, a simulation model is developed for intermediate care that can serve as a basis for policy decisions. Our case study shows that the waiting times for health care facilities are not always solved by increasing bed capacity. This underlines the necessity for a data-driven approach to identify logistic bottlenecks and find the best ways to solve them.

Reduced Waiting Times by Preference-Based Allocation of Patients to Nursing Homes.

OBJECTIVES: The long waiting times for nursing homes can be reduced by applying advanced waiting-line management. In this article, we implement a preference-based allocation model for older adults to nursing homes, evaluate the performance in a simulation setting for 2 case studies, and discuss the implementation in practice. DESIGN: Simulation study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Older adults requiring somatic nursing home care, from an urban region (Rotterdam) and a rural region (Twente) in the Netherlands. METHODS: Data about nursing homes and capacities for the 2 case studies were identified. A set of preference profiles was defined with aims regarding waiting time preferences and flexibility. Guidelines for implementation of the model in practice were obtained by addressing the tasks of all stakeholders. Thereafter, the simulation was run to compare the current practice with the allocation model based on specified outcome measures about waiting times and preferences. RESULTS: We found that the allocation model decreased the waiting times in both case studies. Compared with the current practice policy, the allocation model reduced the waiting times until placement by at least a factor of 2 (from 166 to 80 days in Rotterdam and 178 to 82 days in Twente). Moreover, more of the older adults ended up in their preferred nursing home and the aims of the distinct preference profiles were satisfied. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The results show that the allocation model outperforms commonly used waiting-line policies for nursing homes, while meeting individual preferences to a larger extent. Moreover, the model is easy to implement and of a generic nature and can, therefore, be extended to other settings as well (eg, to allocate older adults to home care or daycare). Finally, this research shows the potential of mathematical models in the care domain for older adults to face the increasing need for cost-effective solutions.