Trends in research on pain relief during oocyte retrieval for IVF/ICSI: a systematic, methodological review.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the methodological validity and usefulness of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on pain relief during oocyte retrieval for IVF and ICSI? SUMMARY ANSWER: Key methodological characteristics such as randomization, allocation concealment, primary outcome measure and sample size calculation were inadequately reported in 33-43% of the included RCTs, and a broad heterogeneity is revealed in the studied outcome measures. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: A Cochrane review on conscious sedation and analgesia for women undergoing oocyte retrieval concluded that the overall quality of evidence was low or very low, mainly owing to poor reporting. This, and heterogeneity of studied outcome measures, limits generalizability and eligibility of results for meta-analysis. STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION: For this review, a systematic search for RCTs on pain relief during oocyte retrieval was performed on 20 July 2020 in CENTRAL CRSO, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO ICTRP, Web of Science, Portal Regional da BVS and Open Grey. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS: RCTs with pain or patient satisfaction as an outcome were included and analysed on a set of methodological and clinical characteristics, to determine their validity and usefulness. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Screening of 2531 articles led to an inclusion of 51 RCTs. Randomization was described inadequately in 33% of the RCTs. A low-risk method of allocation concealment was reported in 55% of the RCTs. Forty-nine percent of the RCTs reported blinding of participants, 33% of blinding personnel and 43% of blinding the outcome assessor. In 63% of the RCTs, the primary outcome was stated, but a sample size calculation was described in only 57%. Data were analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle in 73%. Treatment groups were not treated identically other than the intervention of interest in 10% of the RCTs. The primary outcome was intraoperative pain in 28%, and postoperative pain in 2%. The visual analogue scale (VAS) was the most used pain scale, in 69% of the RCTs in which pain was measured. Overall, nine other scales were used. Patient satisfaction was measured in 49% of the RCTs, for which 12 different methods were used. Occurrence of side-effects and complications were assessed in 77% and 49% of the RCTs: a definition for these was lacking in 13% and 20% of the RCTs, respectively. Pregnancy rate was reported in 55% of the RCTs and, of these, 75% did not adequately define pregnancy. To improve the quality of future research, we provide recommendations for the design of future trials. These include use of the VAS for pain measurement, use of validated questionnaires for measurement of patient satisfaction and the minimal clinically relevant difference to use for sample size calculations. LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION: Consensus has not been reached on some methodological characteristics, for which we formulated recommendations. To prevent further heterogeneity in research on this topic, recommendations were formulated based on expert opinion, or on the most used method thus far. Future research may provide evidence to base new recommendations on. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Use of the recommendations given for design of trials on this topic can increase the generalizability of future research, increasing eligibility for meta-analyses and preventing wastefulness. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: No specific funding was obtained for this study. S.B. reports being the editor-in-chief of Human Reproduction Open. For this manuscript, he was not involved with the handling process within Human Reproduction Open, or with the final decision. Furthermore, S.B. reports personal fees from Remuneration from Oxford University Press as editor-in-chief of Human Reproduction Open, personal fees from Editor and contributing author, Reproductive Medicine for the MRCOG, Cambridge University Press. The remaining authors declare no conflict of interest in relation to the work presented. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not applicable.

A concise infertility work-up results in fewer pregnancies.

STUDY QUESTION: Is pregnancy success rate after a concise infertility work-up the same as pregnancy success rate after the traditional extensive infertility work-up? SUMMARY ANSWER: The ongoing pregnancy rate within a follow-up of 1 year after a concise infertility work-up is significantly lower than the pregnancy success rate after the traditional and extensive infertility work-up. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Based on cost-effectiveness studies, which have mainly focused on diagnosis, infertility work-up has become less comprehensive. Many centres have even adopted a one-stop approach to their infertility work-up. STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION: We performed a historically controlled cohort study. In 2012 and 2013 all new infertile couples (n = 795) underwent an extensive infertility work-up (group A). In 2014 and 2015, all new infertile couples (n = 752) underwent a concise infertility work-up (group B). The follow-up period was 1 year for both groups. Complete follow-up was available for 99.0% of couples in group A and 97.5% in group B. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS: The extensive infertility work-up consisted of history taking, a gynaecological ultrasound scan, semen analysis, ultrasonographic cycle monitoring, a timed postcoital test, a timed progesterone and chlamydia antibody titre. A hysterosalpingography (HSG) was advised routinely. The concise infertility work-up was mainly based on history taking, a gynaecological ultrasound scan and semen analysis. A HSG was only performed if tubal pathology was suspected or before the start of IUI. Laparoscopy and hormonal tests were only performed if indicated. Couples were treated according to the diagnosis with either expectant management (if the Hunault prognostic score was >30%), ovulation induction (in case of ovulation disorders), IUI in natural cycles (in case of cervical factor), IUI in stimulated cycles (if the Hunault prognostic score was <30%) or IVF/ICSI (in case of tubal factor, advanced female age, severe male factor and if other treatments remained unsuccessful). The primary outcomes were time to pregnancy and the ongoing pregnancy rates in both groups. The secondary outcomes were the number of investigations, the distribution of diagnoses made, the first treatment (started) after infertility work-up and the mode of conception. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The descriptive data, such as age, duration of infertility, type of infertility and lifestyle habits, in both groups were comparable. In group A, more than twice the number of infertility investigations were performed, compared to group B. An HSG was made less frequently in group B (33% versus 42%) and at a later stage. A Kaplan-Meier curve shows a shorter time to pregnancy in group A. Also, a significantly higher overall ongoing pregnancy rate within a follow-up of 1 year was found in group A (58.7% versus 46.8%, respectively, P < 0.001). In group A, more couples conceived during the infertility work-up (14.7% versus 6.5%, respectively, P < 0.05). The diagnosis cervical infertility could only be made in group A (9.3%). The diagnosis unexplained infertility differed between groups, at 23.5% in group A and 32.2% in group B (P < 0.001). LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION: This was a historically controlled cohort study; introduction of bias cannot be ruled out. The follow-up rate was similar in the two groups and therefore could not explain the differences in pregnancy rate. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Re-introduction of an extensive infertility work-up should be considered as it may lead to higher ongoing pregnancy rates within a year. The therapeutic effects of HSG and timing of intercourse may improve the fertility chance. This finding should be verified in a randomized controlled trial. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: No funding was obtained for this study. No conflicts of interest were declared. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Septum resection in women with a septate uterus: a cohort study.

STUDY QUESTION: Does septum resection improve reproductive outcomes in women with a septate uterus? SUMMARY ANSWER: In women with a septate uterus, septum resection does not increase live birth rate nor does it decrease the rates of pregnancy loss or preterm birth, compared with expectant management. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The septate uterus is the most common uterine anomaly with an estimated prevalence of 0.2-2.3% in women of reproductive age, depending on the classification system. The definition of the septate uterus has been a long-lasting and ongoing subject of debate, and currently two classification systems are used worldwide. Women with a septate uterus may be at increased risk of subfertility, pregnancy loss, preterm birth and foetal malpresentation. Based on low quality evidence, current guidelines recommend removal of the intrauterine septum or, more cautiously, state that the procedure should be evaluated in future studies. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We performed an international multicentre cohort study in which we identified women mainly retrospectively by searching in electronic patient files, medical records and databases within the time frame of January 2000 until August 2018. Searching of the databases, files and records took place between January 2016 and July 2018. By doing so, we collected data on 257 women with a septate uterus in 21 centres in the Netherlands, USA and UK. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We included women with a septate uterus, defined by the treating physician, according to the classification system at that time. The women were ascertained among those with a history of subfertility, pregnancy loss, preterm birth or foetal malpresentation or during a routine diagnostic procedure. Allocation to septum resection or expectant management was dependent on the reproductive history and severity of the disease. We excluded women who did not have a wish to conceive at time of diagnosis. The primary outcome was live birth. Secondary outcomes included pregnancy loss, preterm birth and foetal malpresentation. All conceptions during follow-up were registered but for the comparative analyses, only the first live birth or ongoing pregnancy was included. To evaluate differences in live birth and ongoing pregnancy, we used Cox proportional regression to calculate hazard rates (HRs) and 95% CI. To evaluate differences in pregnancy loss, preterm birth and foetal malpresentation, we used logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% CI. We adjusted all reproductive outcomes for possible confounders. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: In total, 257 women were included in the cohort. Of these, 151 women underwent a septum resection and 106 women had expectant management. The median follow-up time was 46 months. During this time, live birth occurred in 80 women following a septum resection (53.0%) compared to 76 women following expectant management (71.7%) (HR 0.71 95% CI 0.49-1.02) and ongoing pregnancy occurred in 89 women who underwent septum resection (58.9%), compared to 80 women who had expectant management (75.5%) (HR 0.74 (95% CI 0.52-1.06)). Pregnancy loss occurred in 51 women who underwent septum resection (46.8%) versus 31 women who had expectant management (34.4%) (OR 1.58 (0.81-3.09)), while preterm birth occurred in 26 women who underwent septum resection (29.2%) versus 13 women who had expectant management (16.7%) (OR 1.26 (95% CI 0.52-3.04)) and foetal malpresentation occurred in 17 women who underwent septum resection (19.1%) versus 27 women who had expectant management (34.6%) (OR 0.56 (95% CI 0.24-1.33)). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our retrospective study has a less robust design compared with a randomized controlled trial. Over the years, the ideas about the definition of the septate uterus has changed, but since the 257 women with a septate uterus included in this study had been diagnosed by their treating physician according to the leading classification system at that time, the data of this study reflect the daily practice of recent decades. Despite correcting for the most relevant patient characteristics, our estimates might not be free of residual confounding. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our results suggest that septum resection, a procedure that is widely offered and associated with financial costs for society, healthcare systems or individuals, does not lead to improved reproductive outcomes compared to expectant management for women with a septate uterus. The results of this study need to be confirmed in randomized clinical trials. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): A travel for JFWR to Chicago was supported by the Jo Kolk Studyfund. Otherwise, no specific funding was received for this study. The Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University Medical Centre, Groningen, received an unrestricted educational grant from Ferring Pharmaceutical Company unrelated to the present study. BWM reports grants from NHMRC, personal fees from ObsEva, personal fees from Merck, personal fees from Guerbet, other payment from Guerbet and grants from Merck, outside the submitted work. The other authors declare no conficts of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Predicting the chances of having a baby with or without treatment at different time points in couples with unexplained subfertility.

STUDY QUESTION: Can we develop a prediction model that can estimate the chances of conception leading to live birth with and without treatment at different points in time in couples with unexplained subfertility? SUMMARY ANSWER: Yes, a dynamic model was developed that predicted the probability of conceiving under expectant management and following active treatments (in vitro fertilisation (IVF), intrauterine insemination with ovarian stimulation (IUI + SO), clomiphene) at different points in time since diagnosis. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Couples with no identified cause for their subfertility continue to have a realistic chance of conceiving naturally, which makes it difficult for clinicians to decide when to intervene. Previous fertility prediction models have attempted to address this by separately estimating either the chances of natural conception or the chances of conception following certain treatments. These models only make predictions at a single point in time and are therefore inadequate for informing continued decision-making at subsequent consultations. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A population-based study of 1316 couples with unexplained subfertility attending a regional clinic between 1998 and 2011. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: A dynamic prediction model was developed that estimates the chances of conception within 6 months from the point when a diagnosis of unexplained subfertility was made. These predictions were recomputed each month to provide a dynamic assessment of the individualised chances of conception while taking account of treatment status in each month. Conception must have led to live birth and treatments included clomiphene, IUI + SO, and IVF. Predictions for natural conception were externally validated using a prospective cohort from The Netherlands. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: A total of 554 (42%) couples started fertility treatment within 2 years of their first fertility consultation. The natural conception leading to live birth rate was 0.24 natural conceptions per couple per year. Active treatment had a higher chance of conception compared to those who remained under expectant management. This association ranged from weak with clomiphene to strong with IVF [clomiphene, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.42 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 1.91); IUI + SO, HR = 2.90 (2.06 to 4.08); IVF, HR = 5.09 (4.04 to 6.40)]. Female age and duration of subfertility were significant predictors, without clear interaction with the relative effect of treatment. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: We were unable to adjust for other potentially important predictors, e.g. measures of ovarian reserve, which were not available in the linked Grampian dataset that may have made predictions more specific. This study was conducted using single centre data meaning that it may not be generalizable to other centres. However, the model performed as well as previous models in reproductive medicine when externally validated using the Dutch cohort. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: For the first time, it is possible to estimate the chances of conception following expectant management and different fertility treatments over time in couples with unexplained subfertility. This information will help inform couples and their clinicians of their likely chances of success, which may help manage expectations, not only at diagnostic workup completion but also throughout their fertility journey. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This work was supported by a Chief Scientist Office postdoctoral training fellowship in health services research and health of the public research (ref PDF/12/06). B.W.M. is supported by an NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck, and Guerbet. None of the other authors declare any conflicts of interest.

The therapeutic effect of hysterosalpingography in couples with unexplained subfertility: a post-hoc analysis of a prospective multi-centre cohort study.

RESEARCH QUESTION: Hysterosalpingography (HSG) with an oil-based contrast has been shown to increase ongoing pregnancy rates compared with HSG with water-based contrast, but it remains unclear if an effect of HSG occurs compared with no HSG. DESIGN: A secondary data-analysis of a prospective cohort study among 4556 couples that presented with unexplained subfertility in 38 clinics in the Netherlands between January 2002 and December 2004. A time-varying Cox regression with inverse probability of treatment weighing was used to analyse ongoing pregnancy rates in women after undergoing the HSG procedure (with the use of either water- or oil-based contrast media) compared with women who did not undergo HSG. RESULTS: The probability of natural conception within 24 months after first presentation at the fertility clinic was increased after HSG, regardless of the type of contrast medium used, compared with no HSG (adjusted hazard ratio 1.48, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.73, corresponding to an absolute increase in 6-month pregnancy rate of +6%). When this analysis was limited to HSGs that were made with water-contrast, the treatment effect remained (adjusted hazard ratio 1.40, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.70). CONCLUSIONS: HSG increases the ongoing pregnancy rate of couples with unexplained subfertility compared with no HSG, regardless of the contrast medium used. Results need to be validated in future, preferably randomized, studies.

[A toddler with a vaginal mass and blood loss; the rhabdomyosarcoma]. / Een vaginale zwelling en bloedverlies bij een peuter.

BACKGROUND: The differential diagnosis of vaginal blood loss in childhood is broad, and includes irritation of the mucous membranes, trauma, tumours, foreign bodies and sexual abuse. Physical and additional examination is often initially difficult; however, prompt detection of a rhabdomyosarcoma, a soft-tissue tumour principally diagnosed in childhood, is vitally important. CASE DESCRIPTION: A 3-year-old girl with a history of vaginal blood loss and an introital mass was referred to the gynaecologist. Treatment with oestriol and triamcinolone cream did not lead to healing. Pathological examination of a biopsy taken under general anaesthetic indicated an embryonic rhabdomyosarcoma. Chemotherapy, surgical resection and brachytherapy lead to persistent remission of the tumour. CONCLUSION: Because rhabdomyosarcoma is rare and can present atypically, diagnosis can be delayed. Early recognition is, however, essential and this condition should be placed high in the differential diagnosis by vaginal blood loss or vaginal abnormality in childhood.

Natural conception: repeated predictions over time.

STUDY QUESTION: How can we predict chances of natural conception at various time points in couples diagnosed with unexplained subfertility? SUMMARY ANSWER: We developed a dynamic prediction model that can make repeated predictions over time for couples with unexplained subfertility that underwent a fertility workup at a fertility clinic. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The most frequently used prediction model for natural conception (the 'Hunault model') estimates the probability of natural conception only once per couple, that is, after completion of the fertility workup. This model cannot be used for a second or third time for couples who wish to know their renewed chances after a certain period of expectant management. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A prospective cohort studying the long-term follow-up of subfertile couples included in 38 centres in the Netherlands between January 2002 and February 2004. Couples with bilateral tubal occlusion, anovulation or a total motile sperm count <1 × 106 were excluded. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The primary endpoint was time to natural conception, leading to an ongoing pregnancy. Follow-up time was censored at the start of treatment or at the last date of contact. In developing the new dynamic prediction model, we used the same predictors as the Hunault model, i.e. female age, duration of subfertility, female subfertility being primary or secondary, sperm motility and referral status. The performance of the model was evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination. Additionally, we assessed the utility of the model in terms of the variability of the calculated predictions. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Of the 4999 couples in the cohort, 1053 (21%) women reached a natural conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy within a mean follow-up of 8 months (5th and 95th percentile: 1-21). Our newly developed dynamic prediction model estimated the median probability of conceiving in the first year after the completion of the fertility workup at 27%. For couples not yet pregnant after half a year, after one year and after one and a half years of expectant management, the median probability of conceiving over the next year was estimated at 20, 15 and 13%, respectively. The model performed fair in an internal validation. The prediction ranges were sufficiently broad to aid in counselling couples for at least two years after their fertility workup. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The dynamic prediction model needs to be validated in an external population. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This dynamic prediction model allows reassessment of natural conception chances after various periods of unsuccessful expectant management. This gives valuable information to counsel couples with unexplained subfertility that are seen for a fertility workup. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This study was facilitated by grant 945/12/002 from ZonMW, The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, The Hague, The Netherlands. No competing interests.

Inter-clinic variation in the chances of natural conception of subfertile couples.

STUDY QUESTION: Are there differences between clinics in the chances of natural conception of couples? SUMMARY ANSWER: We found significant differences between clinics in the couples' natural conception chances, which could not be explained by differences in characteristics of the patients or the clinics. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: In pooled data from multiple centers the synthesis prediction model for natural conception was found to be valid, yet the outcome of interest (i.e. natural conception) might differ between centers. Possible differences between clinics in natural conception rates, as well as the validity of the prediction model in each individual clinic are addressed in this paper. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE AND DURATION: A secondary data-analysis of a prospective cohort study among 3020 subfertile couples recruited in 38 clinics in the Netherlands between January 2002 and December 2004. Clinics with less than 20 couples were excluded from the analyses, resulting in 21 clinics with 2916 couples. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Inclusion of 2916 subfertile couples who underwent a basic fertility work-up. Couples were excluded who had a fertility disorder (one or two-sided tubal pathology, ovulation disorder, total motile sperm count <3 × 10(6)). Included couples were counseled for expectant management for at least six months or followed until the first day of treatment. Follow-up began at the completion of the fertility work-up. Couples lost to follow-up were censored at the last day of contact. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and a log-rank statistic were estimated. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios were determined, adjusted for patient characteristics and the type of clinic (university hospitals with an assisted conception unit (ACU), non-university hospitals with an ACU and non-university hospitals without an ACU). Hazard ratios were also ascertained with empirical Bayes (EB) estimates. Validation of the prediction model per clinic was performed through calibration. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We found significant differences between clinics in the chance of ongoing pregnancy (P < 0.001); even after adjustment for female age, duration of subfertility, percentage of progressive motile sperm, primary/secondary subfertility and post-coital test (P < 0.001). Adjusted hazard ratios and EB estimates ranged from 0.50 to 2.21 and 0.58 to 1.53, respectively. Among the 21 clinics, there were 4 university hospitals, 10 non-university hospitals with an ACU and 7 non-university hospitals without an ACU. In the multivariable analysis, the type of clinic was not significant (P = 0.11). Calibration gave an average intercept of -0.25 (95% range: -1.04-0.53) and average slope of 0.81 (95% range: 0.03-1.60). Six clinics had a negative intercept that differed significantly from zero and three clinics had a negative or positive slope that differed significantly from one. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: A more extensive model including more predictors could give less variation in the differences between the clinics. Variation in work-up protocol between clinics could also have played a role. In fertility prediction research the Cox proportional hazards regression is the most widely used statistical model, but as the underlying assumptions have rarely been evaluated, this model could lead to biased outcomes. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our findings suggest that the synthesis model to predict natural conception is useful overall in clinical practice but in a minority of clinics the model is not well calibrated. Updating the synthesis model to include a center-specific baseline chance might improve the synthesis model for certain clinics. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The study (on which this secondary data-analysis was based) was supported by grant 945/12/002 from ZonMW, the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, The Hague, the Netherlands.

Integration of patient characteristics and the results of Chlamydia antibody testing and hysterosalpingography in the diagnosis of tubal pathology: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tubal patency tests are routinely performed in the diagnostic work-up of subfertile patients, but it is unknown whether these diagnostic tests add value beyond the information obtained by medical history taking and findings at physical examination. We used individual patient data meta-analysis to assess this question. METHODS: We approached authors of primary studies for data sets containing information on patient characteristics and results from tubal patency tests, such as Chlamydia antibody test (CAT), hysterosalpingography (HSG) and laparoscopy. We used logistic regression to create models that predict tubal pathology from medical history and physical examination alone, as well as models in which the results of tubal patency tests are integrated in the patient characteristics model. Laparoscopy was considered to be the reference test. RESULTS: We obtained data from four studies reporting on 4883 women. The duration of subfertility, number of previous pregnancies and a history of previous pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), pelvic surgery or Chlamydia infection qualified for the patient characteristics model. This model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.65]. For any tubal pathology, the addition of HSG significantly improved the predictive performance to an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.73-0.76) (P < 0.001). For bilateral tubal pathology, the addition of both CAT and HSG increased the predictive performance to an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.74-0.79). CONCLUSIONS: In the work-up for subfertile couples, the combination of patient characteristics with CAT and HSG results gives the best diagnostic performance for the diagnosis of bilateral tubal pathology.

Chlamydia trachomatis IgG seropositivity is associated with lower natural conception rates in ovulatory subfertile women without visible tubal pathology.

BACKGROUND: The relation between Chlamydia trachomatis infection and subsequent tubal damage is widely recognized. As such, C. trachomatis antibody (CAT) testing can be used to triage women for immediate tubal testing with hysterosalpingography (HSG) or laparoscopy. However, once invasive tubal testing has ruled out tubal pathology, CAT serology status is ignored, as its clinical significance is currently unknown. This study aimed to determine whether positive CAT serology is associated with lower spontaneous pregnancy rates in women in whom HSG and/or diagnostic laparoscopy showed no visible tubal pathology. METHODS: We studied ovulatory women in whom HSG or laparoscopy showed patent tubes. Women were tested for C. trachomatis immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies with either micro-immunofluorescence (MIF) or an ELISA. CAT serology was positive if the MIF titre was ≥ 1:32 or if the ELISA index was >1.1. The proportion of couples pregnant without treatment was estimated at 12 months of follow-up. Time to pregnancy was considered censored at the date of the last contact when the woman was not pregnant or at the start of treatment. The association between CAT positivity and an ongoing pregnancy was evaluated with Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Of the 1882 included women without visible tubal pathology, 338 (18%) had a treatment-independent pregnancy within 1 year [estimated cumulative pregnancy rate 31%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 27-35%]. Because of differential censoring after 9 months of follow-up, regression analyses were limited to the first 9 months after tubal testing. Positive C. trachomatis IgG serology was associated with a statistically significant 33% lower probability of an ongoing pregnancy [adjusted fecundity rate ratio 0.66 (95% CI 0.49-0.89)]. CONCLUSIONS: Even after HSG or laparoscopy has shown no visible tubal pathology, subfertile women with a positive CAT have lower pregnancy chances than CAT negative women. After external validation, this finding could be incorporated into existing prognostic models.

Tailored expectant management: risk factors for non-adherence.

INTRODUCTION: Prediction models for spontaneous pregnancy are useful tools to prevent overtreatment, complications and costs in subfertile couples with a good prognosis. The use of such models and subsequent expectant management in couples with a good prognosis are recommended in the Dutch fertility guidelines, but not fully implemented. In this study, we assess risk factors for non-adherence to tailored expectant management. METHODS: Couples with mild male, unexplained and cervical subfertility were included in this multicentre prospective cohort study. If the probability of spontaneous pregnancy within 12 months was ≥40%, expectant management for 6-12 months was advised. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify patient and clinical characteristics associated with non-adherence to tailored expectant management. RESULTS: We included 3021 couples of whom 1130 (38%) had a ≥40% probability of a spontaneous pregnancy. Follow-up was available for 1020 (90%) couples of whom 214 (21%) had started treatment between 6 and 12 months and 153 (15%) within 6 months. A higher female age and a longer duration of subfertility were associated with treatment within 6 months (OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01-1.1; OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1-1.8). A fertility doctor in a clinical team reduced the risk of treatment within 6 months (OR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.39-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: In couples with a favorable prognosis for spontaneous pregnancy, there is considerable overtreatment, especially if the woman is older and duration of the subfertility is longer. The presence of a fertility doctor in a clinic may prevent early treatment.

Chlamydia antibody testing and diagnosing tubal pathology in subfertile women: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Chlamydia IgG antibody test (CAT) shows considerable variations in reported estimates of test accuracy, partly because of the use of different assays and cut-off values. The aim of this study was to reassess the accuracy of CAT in diagnosing tubal pathology by individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis for three different CAT assays. METHODS: We approached authors of primary studies that used micro-immunofluorescence tests (MIF), immunofluorescence tests (IF) or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests (ELISA). Using the obtained IPD, we performed pooled receiver operator characteristics analysis and logistic regression analysis with a random effects model to compare the three assays. Tubal pathology was defined as either any tubal obstruction or bilateral tubal obstruction. RESULTS: We acquired data of 14 primary studies containing data of 6191 women, of which data of 3453 women were available for analysis. The areas under the curve for ELISA, IF and MIF were 0.64, 0.65 and 0.75, respectively (P-value < 0.001) for any tubal pathology and 0.66, 0.66 and 0.77, respectively (P-value = 0.01) for bilateral tubal pathology. CONCLUSIONS: In Chlamydia antibody testing, MIF is superior in the assessment of tubal pathology. In the initial screen for tubal pathology MIF should therefore be the test of first choice.

The capacity of hysterosalpingography and laparoscopy to predict natural conception.

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopy has been claimed to be superior to hysterosalpingography (HSG) in predicting fertility. Whether this conclusion is applicable to a general subfertile population can be questioned as data in support of this claim were collected in third line centres. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic capacity of HSG and laparoscopy in a general subfertile population. METHODS: In 38 centres, we prospectively studied a cohort of patients referred for subfertility between 2002 and 2004, who underwent HSG and/or laparoscopy as part of their subfertility work-up. Follow-up started immediately after tubal testing and ended 12 months thereafter. Time to pregnancy was censored at the of date last contact, when the woman was not pregnant or at the start of treatment. Kaplan-Meier curves for the occurrence of spontaneous intrauterine pregnancy were constructed for patients without tubal pathology, for those with unilateral tubal pathology and for patients with bilateral tubal pathology at HSG or laparoscopy. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to calculate fecundity rate ratios (FRRs) to express associations between tubal pathology and the occurrence of an intrauterine pregnancy. RESULTS: Of the 3301 included patients, 2043 underwent HSG only, 747 underwent diagnostic laparoscopy only and 511 underwent both. At HSG, 322 (13%) patients showed unilateral tubal pathology and 135 (5%) showed bilateral tubal pathology. At laparoscopy, 167 (13%) showed unilateral tubal pathology and 215 (17%) showed bilateral tubal pathology. Multivariable analysis resulted in FRRs of 0.81 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.59-1.1] for unilateral, and 0.28 (95% CI: 0.13-0.59) for bilateral, tubal pathology at HSG. The FRRs at laparoscopy were 0.85 (95% CI: 0.47-1.52) for unilateral, and 0.24 (95% CI: 0.11-0.54) for bilateral, tubal pathology. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with unilateral tubal pathology at HSG and laparoscopy had a moderate reduction in pregnancy chances, whereas those with bilateral tubal pathology at HSG and laparoscopy had a severe reduction in pregnancy chances. This reduction was similar for HSG and laparoscopy, suggesting that HSG and laparoscopy have a comparable predictive capacity for natural conception.

Are patient characteristics associated with the accuracy of hysterosalpingography in diagnosing tubal pathology? An individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Conventional meta-analysis has estimated the sensitivity and specificity of hysterosalpingography (HSG) to be 65% and 83%. The impact of patient characteristics on the accuracy of HSG is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess by individual patient data meta-analysis whether the accuracy of HSG is associated with different patient characteristics. METHODS: We approached authors of primary studies reporting on the accuracy of HSG using findings at laparoscopy as the reference. We assessed whether patient characteristics such as female age, duration of subfertility and a clinical history without risk factors for tubal pathology were associated with the accuracy of HSG, using a random intercept logistic regression model. RESULTS: We acquired data of seven primary studies containing data of 4521 women. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of HSG were 53% and 87% for any tubal pathology and 46% and 95% for bilateral tubal pathology. In women without risk factors, the sensitivity of HSG was 38% for any tubal pathology, compared with 61% in women with risk factors (P = 0.005). For bilateral tubal pathology, these rates were 13% versus 47% (P = 0.01). For bilateral tubal pathology, the sensitivity of HSG decreased with age [factor 0.93 per year (P = 0.05)]. The specificity of HSG was very stable across all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of HSG in detecting tubal pathology was similar in all subgroups, except for women without risk factors in whom sensitivity was lower, possibly due to false-positive results at laparoscopy. HSG is a useful tubal patency screening test for all infertile couples.

[Intra-uterine insemination with controlled ovarian hyperstimulation compared to an expectant management in couples with unexplained subfertility and an intermediate prognosis: a randomised study]. / Intra-uteriene inseminatie met gecontroleerde ovariële hyperstimulatie vergeleken met een afwachtend beleid bij paren met onverklaarde subfertiliteit en een gemiddelde prognose: een gerandomiseerd onderzoek.

OBJECTIVE: Intrauterine insemination (IUI) with controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) is commonly used as treatment of first choice in couples with unexplained subfertility. This treatment should only be applied when there is a realistic increase in chance of pregnancy, particularly because it carries the increased risk of multiple pregnancies. We evaluated the effectiveness of IUI with COH relative to expectant management in couples with unexplained subfertility and an intermediate prognosis of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy. DESIGN: Multicentre randomised clinical study. METHOD: 253 couples with unexplained subfertility and a probability of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy of 30% to 40% within 12 months, were randomly assigned to IUI with COH for 6 months or expectant management for 6 months. The primary endpoint of our study was ongoing pregnancy within 6 months. Analysis was carried out according to the intention to treat principle. This study was registered with the Dutch Trial Register and has the International Standard Randomised Clinical Trial number ISRCTN72675518. RESULTS: Of the 253 couples included, 127 couples were allocated to IUI with COH and 126 to expectant management. In the intervention group, 42 women (33%) conceived, of which 29 pregnancies were ongoing (23%). In the expectant management group, 40 women (32%) conceived, of which 34 pregnancies were ongoing (27%) (relative risk: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.63-1.1). In the expectant management group one twin pregnancy occurred and in the intervention group one woman conceived twins and one a triplet. CONCLUSION: A substantial beneficial effect of IUI with COH in couples with unexplained subfertility and an intermediate prognosis can be excluded. Expectant management for a period of 6 months therefore appears justified in these couples.

Identifying subfertile ovulatory women for timely tubal patency testing: a clinical decision rule based on medical history.

BACKGROUND: The aim of tubal testing is to identify women with bilateral tubal pathology in a timely manner, so they can be treated with IVF or tubal surgery. At present, it is unclear for which women early tubal testing is indicated, and in whom it can be deferred. METHODS: Data on 3716 women who underwent tubal patency testing as a part of their routine fertility workup were used to relate elements in their medical history to the presence of tubal pathology. With multivariable logistic regression, we constructed two diagnostic models. One in which tubal disease was defined as occlusion and/or severe adhesions of at least one tube, whereas in a second model, tubal disease was defined as the presence of bilateral abnormalities. RESULTS: Both models discriminated moderately well between women with and women without tubal disease with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.65 (95% CI: 0.63-0.68) for any tubal pathology and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.65-0.71) for bilateral tubal pathology, respectively. However, the models could make an almost perfect distinction between women with a high and a low probability of tubal pathology. A decision rule in the form of a simple diagnostic score chart was developed for application of the models in clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the present study provides two easy to use decision rules that can accurately express a woman's probability of (severe) tubal pathology at the couple's first consultation. They could be used to select women for tubal testing more efficiently.

Pregnancy is predictable: a large-scale prospective external validation of the prediction of spontaneous pregnancy in subfertile couples.

BACKGROUND: Prediction models for spontaneous pregnancy may be useful tools to select subfertile couples that have good fertility prospects and should therefore be counselled for expectant management. We assessed the accuracy of a recently published prediction model for spontaneous pregnancy in a large prospective validation study. METHODS: In 38 centres, we studied a consecutive cohort of subfertile couples, referred for an infertility work-up. Patients had a regular menstrual cycle, patent tubes and a total motile sperm count (TMC) >3 x 10(6). After the infertility work-up had been completed, we used a prediction model to calculate the chance of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy (www.freya.nl/probability.php). The primary end-point was time until the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy within 1 year. The performance of the pregnancy prediction model was assessed with calibration, which is the comparison of predicted and observed ongoing pregnancy rates for groups of patients and discrimination. RESULTS: We included 3021 couples of whom 543 (18%) had a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy, 57 (2%) a non-successful pregnancy, 1316 (44%) started treatment, 825 (27%) neither started treatment nor became pregnant and 280 (9%) were lost to follow-up. Calibration of the prediction model was almost perfect. In the 977 couples (32%) with a calculated probability between 30 and 40%, the observed cumulative pregnancy rate at 12 months was 30%, and in 611 couples (20%) with a probability of >or=40%, this was 46%. The discriminative capacity was similar to the one in which the model was developed (c-statistic 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: As the chance of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy among subfertile couples can be accurately calculated, this prediction model can be used as an essential tool for clinical decision-making and in counselling patients. The use of the prediction model may help to prevent unnecessary treatment.

Do clinical prediction models improve concordance of treatment decisions in reproductive medicine?

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the use of clinical prediction models improves concordance between gynaecologists with respect to treatment decisions in reproductive medicine. DESIGN: We constructed 16 vignettes of subfertile couples by varying fertility history, postcoital test, sperm motility, follicle-stimulating hormone level and Chlamydia antibody titre. SETTING: Thirty-five gynaecologists estimated three probabilities, i.e. the 1-year probability of spontaneous pregnancy, the pregnancy chance after intrauterine insemination (IUI) and the pregnancy chance after in vitro fertilisation (IVF). Subsequently they proposed therapeutic regimens for these 16 fictional couples, i.e. expectant management, IUI or IVF. Three months later, the participant gynaecologists again had to propose therapeutic regimes for the same 16 fictional cases but this time accompanied by pregnancy chances obtained from prediction models: predictions on spontaneous pregnancy, IUI and IVF. POPULATION: Thirty-five gynaecologists working in academic and nonacademic hospitals in the Netherlands. METHODS: Setting section. Main outcome measures The concordance between gynaecologists of probability estimates, expressed as interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the concordance between gynaecologists of treatment decisions, analysed by calculating Cohen's kappa (kappa). RESULTS: The gynaecologists differed widely in estimating pregnancy chances (ICC: 0.34). Furthermore, there was a huge variation in the proposed therapeutic regimens (kappa: 0.21). The treatment decisions made by gynaecologists were consistent with the ranking of their probability estimates. When prediction models were used, the concordance (kappa) for treatment decisions increased from 0.21 to 0.38. The number of gynaecologists counselling for expectant management increased from 39 to 51%, whereas counselling for IVF dropped from 23 to 14%. CONCLUSION: Gynaecologists differed widely in their estimation of prognosis in 16 fictional cases of subfertile couples. Their therapeutic regimens showed likewise huge variation. After confrontation with prediction models in the same 16 fictional cases, the proposed therapeutic regimens showed only slightly better concordance. Therefore a simple introduction of validated prediction models is insufficient to introduce concordant management between doctors.

[Results of intrauterine insemination in the Netherlands]. / Resultaten van intra-uteriene inseminatie in Nederland.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the results of intrauterine insemination (IUI) in the Netherlands. DESIGN: Retrospective. METHOD: Based on annual reports and individual reports from gynaecologists, we calculated the number of registered IUI cycles performed, the pregnancy rates per cycle, the ongoing pregnancy rates per cycle and the multiple pregnancy rates per ongoing pregnancy in 2003. By extrapolating these results, we estimated the total number of IUI cycles performed in 2003 in the Netherlands and the related outcomes. These results were compared with IUI pregnancy rates from the international literature and Dutch national data on in vitro fertilisation (IVF). RESULTS: In 2003, IUI was performed in 91 of the 101 hospitals in the Netherlands. Of these 91 hospitals, 58 (64%) registered their IUI results. These 58 hospitals performed 19,846 IUI cycles in 2003. The mean pregnancy rate per cycle was 9.0% and the ongoing pregnancy rate per cycle was 7.3%. Multiple pregnancies occurred in 9.5% of ongoing pregnancies. Extrapolation of the data of these 58 hospitals revealed that approximately 28,500 IUI cycles were performed in the Netherlands in 2003, of which approximately 2,000 resulted in an ongoing pregnancy. The number of multiple pregnancies following IUI was estimated to be 180 (9.0%). In the international literature, a pregnancy rate per cycle of 8.7% has been reported. According to the national IVF registry, 9,761 IVF cycles were started in 2003, resulting in 2,028 ongoing pregnancies (20.8% per cycle) and 439 twin pregnancies (21.6% per ongoing pregnancy). CONCLUSION: The pregnancy rate per IUI cycle in the Netherlands (9.0%) was comparable to that reported in the international literature (8.7%). The contribution of IUI to the number of multiple pregnancies in the Netherlands was much smaller than the contribution of IVF.