Predictive heuristic control: Inferring risks from heterogeneous nowcast accuracy.

Urban Drainage Systems can cause ecological and public health issues by releasing untreated contaminated water into the environment. Real-time control (RTC), augmented with rainfall nowcast, can effectively reduce these pollution loads. This research aims to identify key dynamics in the nowcast accuracies and relate those to the performance of nowcast-informed rule-based (RB)-RTC procedures. The developed procedures are tested in the case study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Using perfect nowcast data, all developed procedures showed a reduction in combined sewer overflow volumes of up to 14.6%. Considering real nowcast data, it showed a strong ability to predict if no more rain was expected, whilst performing poorly in quantifying rainfall depths. No relation was found in the nowcast accuracy and the consistency of the predicted rainfall using a moving horizon. Using the real nowcast data, all procedures, with the exception of the one predicting the end of the rainfall event, showed a significant risk of operative deterioration (performing worse than the baseline RB-RTC), linked to the relative performance of the nowcast algorithm. Understanding the strengths of a nowcast algorithm can ensure the reliability of the RB-RTC procedure and can negate the need for detailed modelling studies by inferring risks from nowcast data.

Towards the long term implementation of real time control of combined sewer systems: a review of performance and influencing factors.

Real Time Control (RTC) is widely accepted as a cost-effective way to operate urban drainage systems (UDS) effectively. However, what factors influence RTC efficacy and how this might change in the long term remains largely unknown. This paper reviews the literature to understand what these factors likely are, and how they can be assessed in the future. Despite decades of research, inconsistent definitions of the performance of RTC are used, hindering an objective and quantitative examination of the benefits and drawbacks of different control strategies with regard to their performance and robustness. Furthermore, a discussion on the changes occurring and projected to occur to UDS reveals that the potential impact of these changes on the functioning of RTC systems can be significant and should be considered in the design stage of the RTC strategy. Understanding this 'best-before' characteristic of an RTC strategy is the key step to ensure long term optimal functioning of the UDS. Additionally, unexplored potential for RTC systems might exist in the transitions, rehabilitation and construction of drainage systems. The research gaps highlighted here could guide the way for further development of RTC strategies, and enabling more optimal, long term implementation of RTC for urban drainage systems.