The Normative Orientations of Climate Scientists.

In 1942 Robert K. Merton tried to demonstrate the structure of the normative system of science by specifying the norms that characterized it. The norms were assigned the abbreviation CUDOs: Communism, Universalism, Disinterestedness, and Organized skepticism. Using the results of an on-line survey of climate scientists concerning the norms of science, this paper explores the climate scientists' subscription to these norms. The data suggests that while Merton's CUDOs remain the overall guiding moral principles, they are not fully endorsed or present in the conduct of climate scientists: there is a tendency to withhold results until publication, there is the intention of maintaining property rights, there is external influence defining research and the tendency to assign the significance of authored work according to the status of the author rather than content of the paper. These are contrary to the norms of science as proposed by Robert K. Merton.

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming.

Every winter, the high-latitude oceans are struck by severe storms that are considerably smaller than the weather-dominating synoptic depressions. Accompanied by strong winds and heavy precipitation, these often explosively developing mesoscale cyclones-termed polar lows-constitute a threat to offshore activities such as shipping or oil and gas exploitation. Yet owing to their small scale, polar lows are poorly represented in the observational and global reanalysis data often used for climatological investigations of atmospheric features and cannot be assessed in coarse-resolution global simulations of possible future climates. Here we show that in a future anthropogenically warmed climate, the frequency of polar lows is projected to decline. We used a series of regional climate model simulations to downscale a set of global climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. In this process, we first simulated the formation of polar low systems in the North Atlantic and then counted the individual cases. A previous study using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data revealed that polar low frequency from 1948 to 2005 did not systematically change. Now, in projections for the end of the twenty-first century, we found a significantly lower number of polar lows and a northward shift of their mean genesis region in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. This change can be related to changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and mid-troposphere temperature; the latter is found to rise faster than the former so that the resulting stability is increased, hindering the formation or intensification of polar lows. Our results provide a rare example of a climate change effect in which a type of extreme weather is likely to decrease, rather than increase.

Reconstructing past climate from noisy data.

Empirical reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature in the past millennium based on multiproxy records depict small-amplitude variations followed by a clear warming trend in the past two centuries. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulation of the past 1000 years as a surrogate climate to test the skill of these methods, particularly at multidecadal and centennial time scales. Idealized proxy records are represented by simulated grid-point temperature, degraded with statistical noise. The centennial variability of the NH temperature is underestimated by the regression-based methods applied here, suggesting that past variations may have been at least a factor of 2 larger than indicated by empirical reconstructions.

Controlling lead concentrations in human blood by regulating the use of lead in gasoline.

After having been emitted at maximum rates in the 1960s and 1970s, lead has become less ubiquitous in industrialized countries as a result of increasingly stringent policies to limit the use of this heavy metal as an anti-knock additive in gasoline. Using a detailed reconstruction of lead emissions in Europe (PbE), of the air concentration of lead in Europe (PbC) and repeated measurements of lead concentrations in human blood (PbB) in Germany since about 1980, we have constructed an empirical model that estimates PbB given PbE. This model is used for 2 purposes: i)To estimate PbB levels for the 1960s and 1970s in Germany, when emissions were maximum and monitoring blood levels had not yet begun. It turns out that PbB peak emissions were reaching a mean level, which health officials considered potentially harmful for fetuses and small children. ii) To estimate how PbB levels may have developed if regulations of the use of lead in gasoline had been implemented differently. In case of no or delayed regulations, the model estimates that PbB levels well beyond the critical level would have emerged. Thus, the regulation instituted in Germany since the 1970s has reduced significant health hazards.

Four decades of gasoline lead emissions and control policies in Europe: a retrospective assessment.

Over decades, large amounts of the neurotoxin lead were released into the European environment, mostly from gasoline lead additives. Emissions were growing unabatedly until the 1970s, when a series of regulations on the allowed gasoline lead content were adopted. As a result, in the 1990s most gasoline contained only small amounts of lead. We have examined this case of environmental pollution and regulation, and performed a retrospective assessment of the extent of regional-scale lead pollution and the effects of gasoline lead regulations in Europe. With the help of a regional climate model, NCEP re-analyses, spatially disaggregated lead emissions from road traffic and point sources, and various local data, the airborne pathways and depositions of gasoline lead in Europe since 1958 were reconstructed. It turns out that this approach is successful in describing the time-variable, spatially disaggregated deposition of gasoline lead. Additional data from analyses of concentrations in biota, including plant leaves, mussels and human blood, allows an assessment about the impact of the lead phase-out on the quality of the environment. Demonstrating the success of the lead policies, concentrations in leaves and human blood have steadily declined since the early 1980s. At the same time, the economic repercussions that had been feared did not emerge. Instead, the affected mineral oil and car manufacturing industries in Germany (our case-study) were able to deal with the effort without incurring significant extra costs. We suggest that our method of quantitatively reconstructing and anticipating fluxes and depositions of substances can be applied to other relevant substances as well, such as, for example, Persistent Organic Pollutants, radioactive substances or pollens.