ABSTRACT
Objectives: Model prediction of radioactivity levels around nuclear facilities is a useful tool for assessing human health risks and environmental impacts. We aim to develop a model for forecasting radioactivity levels in the environment and food around the world's first AP 1000 nuclear power unit. Methods: In this work, we report a pilot study using time-series radioactivity monitoring data to establish Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for predicting radioactivity levels. The models were screened by Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and the model accuracy was evaluated by mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results: The optimal models, ARIMA (0, 0, 0) × (0, 1, 1)4, and ARIMA (4, 0, 1) were used to predict activity concentrations of 90Sr in food and cumulative ambient dose (CAD), respectively. From the first quarter (Q1) to the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023, the predicted values of 90Sr in food and CAD were 0.067-0.77 Bq/kg, and 0.055-0.133 mSv, respectively. The model prediction results were in good agreement with the observation values, with MAPEs of 21.4 and 22.4%, respectively. From Q1 to Q4 of 2024, the predicted values of 90Sr in food and CAD were 0.067-0.77 Bq/kg and 0.067-0.129 mSv, respectively, which were comparable to values reported elsewhere. Conclusion: The ARIMA models developed in this study showed good short-term predictability, and can be used for dynamic analysis and prediction of radioactivity levels in environment and food around Sanmen Nuclear Power Plant.
Subject(s)
Bayes Theorem , Nuclear Power Plants , Radiation Monitoring , Humans , Pilot Projects , Radiation Monitoring/methods , Radioactivity , Food Contamination, Radioactive/analysis , Forecasting , Models, TheoreticalABSTRACT
Objective:To investigate and analyze the radioactivity levels of 90Sr and 137Cs in drinking water and 137Cs in food after the installation of the first AP1000 nuclear power unit in China. Methods:From 2012 to 2019, four drinking water monitoring points around AP1000 nuclear power unit located at Sanmen nuclear power plant site were collected during the wet season and dry season, 90Sr and 137Cs and radioactivity concentrations were determined in drinking water. Local rice, cabbage, crucian and mullet were collected to determine the radioactivity concentration of 137Cs. Results:From 2012 to 2019, the radioactivity concentrations of 90Sr and 137Cs in drinking water were 1.2-9.8 mBq/L and 0.2-8.1 mBq/L, respectively. The radioactivity concentration of 137Cs in food were 1.1×10 -2-2.8×10 -1 Bq/kg, lower than the limits specified in the Limited concentrations of radioactive materials in foods (GB 14882-94). Conclusions:After the installation of the first AP1000 nuclear power unit in China, the radioactivity levels of 90Sr and 137Cs in drinking water and 137Cs in foods are stable, without environmental impact identified.
