[The epidemiology of aging: a further stage in the demographic transition]. / Epidemiologia del envejecimiento: una fase mas de la transicion demografica.

"Social and economic indicators depict Mexico as a country of intermediate development. It is also in intermediate stages of demographic and epidemiologic transitions. When these traits are translated into socio-demographic perspectives, all projections indicate that for the next fifty years we can expect: (i) percentage decreases in child and teen-age populations, (ii) large percentage and absolute increases in adult population, and (iii) important increases in the elderly population.... Among elders death due to infectious diseases is less common than within other sectors of [the] population. Mortality associated with chronic ailments has increased, with recent and remarkable changes during the last twenty years. This transformation is not evenly distributed. It is more accelerated in developed and urban areas as contrasted with the rural and less developed." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

[Fertility transition in Brazil. Causes and consequences]. / La transicion de la fecundidad en Brasil. Causas y consecuencias.

PIP: This work examines the determinants and most important consequences of the Brazilian fertility decline. Brazil's total fertility rate declined from 6.2 in 1940 to around 3.5 in 1985. the decline began in the 1960s and amounted to 45% in about 20 years. The most rapid drop began in the late 1970s, with much of it concentrated in 2 specific periods: 1970-75 and 1980-85. The early period coincided with Brazil's so-called "Economic Miracle", a period of rapid growth accompanied however by deteriorating living conditions for the poorest population sectors. The second period coincided with the international economic crisis of the early 1980s, which was felt more strongly in Brazil than elsewhere in Latin America because of Brazil's greater degree of industrialization and closer integration into the world economy. Most of the fertility decline has been accomplished by use of just two contraceptive methods, oral contraceptives and sterilization, which together account for around 85% of contraceptive usage throughout Brazil. The third most common method, rhythm, accounts for just 6%. No reliable data on abortion are available, but it appears to be a common practice equally accessible to all socioeconomic strata despite greater associated health risks for poorer women. Brazil's fertility transition appears to have been a response to the process of proletarianization and urbanization underway in the country as well as to particular circumstances in the country. The most evident and immediate consequence of the continuous fertility decline over more than 20 years is the change in the age structure of the population. The proportions of children under 5 will decline from 14.4% in 1980 to 9.2% in 2010. The proportion aged 5-14 will decline from 24.5% to 17.4%, while the proportion aged 65 and over will increase from 4.0% to 5.6%. Brazil's recent demographic changes are scarcely reflected in development plans and political and social projects. There is almost no mention of the new demographic dynamics which entail new problems to be faced, but also new and more favorable conditions for overcoming some old problems. Most planners retain a conception of Brazil's population as very young, rapidly growing, and with a constant age distribution. Some promising areas for social investment are health, nutrition, and preschool education for small children; improvement and expansion of the public educational system; and improvement in the quality of the labor force. The growing elderly population will require health services, pensions, and alternative living arrangements for the increased proportion without close relatives. A regional development strategy should be developed to assure that conditions do not deteriorate in any region as demographic changes progress.^ieng

[Population aging in Cuba]. / El envejecimiento de la poblacion en Cuba.

"This article presents a brief discussion of the primary aspects associated with aging of the Cuban population, from a demographic, socioeconomic and political perspective. The first issue discussed in the article is how international immigration has contributed to the aging process of the country's population, and the possible causes of this immigration. The author...points out the efforts that the country is making to deal with an accelerated increase in the sixties-plus population...." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

[Population dynamics of the rural Colombian population: 1951-1985]. / Dinamica demografica de la poblacion rural colombiana: 1951-1985.

PIP: The author analyzes demographic trends in rural areas of Colombia for the period 1951-1985, noting a large decline in fertility, improved life expectancy, and trends in internal migration. He also examines changes in the age and sex structure of the rural population and discusses the implications of these changes.^ieng

The female population of Chile, 1855-1964: a microcomputer balance sheet method.

PIP: This article summarizes the essential features of the inverse projection method and applies it to data on the female population of Chile for the period 1855-1964. Changes in age distribution, vital rates, life expectancy, fertility, and gross and net reproduction rates over time are described.^ieng

[The aging of the Uruguayan population in the past 30 years: from "normal" aging to "perverse" aging]. / El envejecimiento de la poblacion Uruguaya treinta anos despues: del envejecimiento "normal" al envejecimiento "perverso".

PIP: Trends in aging in Uruguay over the past 30 years are analyzed, with a focus on the impact of economic, social, and political factors. The extent to which declining birth rates and increased immigration have contributed to the extensive changes in age distribution is considered. Regional and sex differentials are noted, and possible means of supporting an increasingly aging population are suggested. Data are from the censuses of 1963, 1975, and 1985.^ieng

[Population growth rate of one percent in the year 2000: an unattainable target]. / Tasa de crecimiento poblacional de 1% en al ano 2000: una meta inalcanzable.

PIP: The author demonstrates the unattainability of Mexico's population policy target of reducing the natural increase rate to one percent by the end of this century. In order to reach this goal, the net reproduction rate would have to decrease to significantly below replacement level, or 0.667; this would produce dramatic changes in the age structure as well. The policy's objectives are also analyzed in terms of the extent of family planning necessary to reach the target growth rate.^ieng

Demographic consequences of migration trends in Puerto Rico: 1950-1980.

"This paper examines the evolution and changes in migration patterns [in Puerto Rico] through the 1970's based on data from the 1980 census. The focus is on demographic consequences of migration, particularly with regard to population growth, redistribution and changing age structure." A final section is concerned with the socioeconomic implications of migration. (summary in FRE, SPA)

[Economic growth and changes in the structure of the population]. / El crecimiento economico y cambios en la estructura de la poblacion

PIP: A reevaluation of classic works by Simon Kuznets and Wassily Leontief suggests that their conclusions concerning the interrelationships between economic growth and population structure correspond to relatively highly specialized characteristics of present forms of capitalist development or underdevelopment and not necessarily to capitalist development within a new international economic order or to socialist development. Kuznets' work seems to offer conclusive proof of the negative effects of rapid population growth on economic development for 3 reasons: 1) requirements for capital are greater, 2) total production and per capita consumption are greatly reduced with high dependency ratios, and 3) rapid growth in consumption is more difficult when the population is growing more rapidly. However, at least 4 problems are noted when Kuznets' ideas are applied to the 3rd world. Kuznets assumes that growth of physical capital is the only source of growth, so that only increased investment can increase returns. Secondly, assuming the same ratio of capital/output for all cases assumes that no substitution of labor for capital is possible. Third, the assumption that participation rates remain the same regardless of dependency ratios may be incorrect. And finally, the difference in per capita consumption that Kuznets attributes to differences in rates of population growth represents a tiny proportion of the total gap in the standard of living of rich countries with slow population growth and poor countries with rapid growth. Kuznets' argument has considerable validity in Third World countries which relay on traditional patterns of capitalist accumulation, but the problems represent the effects of rapid population growth only under the current modes of capitalist expansion. The negative effect of high fertility on savings has probably been greatly exaggerated, and the problems of providing educational facilities and health care for ever larger numbers of persons have been poorly conceptualized. To the degree that employment security, decent salaries, and social programs for the elderly are provided, as they are at present only in socialist countries of the Third World, the incentives for large families will be reduced. The work of Leontief, based on a computer model with 2625 equations, demonstrates that regardless of the rates of population growth in Third World countries, little change in the gap between rich and poor countries can be expected in the foreseeable future.^ieng

Spatial patterns of age-sex structures in Costa Rica: a study in demographic modernization.

The relationship between economic development and demographic factors in Costa Rica is examined. "Specifically, the paper illustrates the evolution of spatial patterns in age-sex structures over three points in time for a single case study area." The authors suggest that there is order in the evolving patterns and that this order may be explained by the economic modernization process. Data are from the 1950, 1963, and 1973 censuses. Although some spatial order is indicated, the patterns are confused primarily by an increase in fertility that apparently occurred between 1950 and 1963.