Age-specific all-cause mortality trends in the UK: Pre-pandemic increases and the complex impact of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to analyse age-specific all-cause mortality trends in the UK before and after COVID-19 emergence to determine if pre-pandemic trends contributed to increased mortality levels in the post-pandemic era. STUDY DESIGN: Statistical analysis of UK mortality data. METHODS: We utilised age-structured population and mortality data for all UK countries from 2005 to 2023. Mortality rates were calculated for each age group, and excess mortality was estimated using the Office for National Statistics (ONS) method. RESULTS: Our most concerning finding is an increase in all-cause mortality rates for middle-aged adults (30-54 years) starting around 2012. The COVID-19 pandemic may have further impacted these rates, but the pre-existing upward trend suggests that current elevated mortality rates might have been reached regardless of the pandemic. This finding is more alarming than the slowdown in the decline of cardiovascular disease death rates for individuals under 75 noted by the British Heart Foundation. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the importance of considering both immediate pandemic impacts and long-term mortality trends in public health strategies. This underscores the need for targeted interventions and improved healthcare planning to address both ongoing and future challenges.

National age-specific mortality trends for cervical and breast cancers in urban-rural areas of China from 2009 to 2021: a population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cervical and breast cancers are among the top 4 leading causes of cancer-related mortality in women. This study aimed to examine age-specific temporal trends in mortality for cervical and breast cancers in urban and rural areas of China from 2009 to 2021. METHODS: Age-specific mortality data for cervical and breast cancers among Chinese women aged 20-84 years were obtained from China's National Disease Surveillance Points system spanning the years 2009 to 2021. Negative binomial regression models were utilized to assess urban-rural differences in mortality rate ratios, while Joinpoint models with estimated average annual percent changes (AAPC) and slopes were employed to compare temporal trends and the acceleration of mortality rates within different age groups. RESULTS: From 2009 to 2021, there was a relative increase in age-specific mortality associated with the two cancers observed in rural areas compared with urban areas. A rising trend in the screening age of 35-64 [AAPC: 4.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5-7.6%, P = 0.026] for cervical cancer was noted in rural areas, while a stable trend (AAPC: - 0.7%, 95% CI - 5.8 to 4.6%, P = 0.78) was observed in urban areas. As for breast cancer, a stable trend (AAPC: 0.3%, 95% CI - 0.3 to 0.9%, P = 0.28) was observed in rural areas compared to a decreasing trend (AAPC: - 2.7%, 95% CI - 4.6 to - 0.7%, P = 0.007) in urban areas. Urban-rural differences in mortality rates increased over time for cervical cancer but decreased for breast cancer. Mortality trends for both cervical and breast cancers showed an increase with age across 4 segments, with the most significant surge in mortality observed among the 35-54 age group across urban and rural areas, periods, and regions in China. CONCLUSIONS: Special attention should be given to women aged 35-54 years due to mortality trends and rural-urban disparities. Focusing on vulnerable age groups and addressing rural-urban differences in the delivery of cancer control programs can enhance resource efficiency and promote health equity.

Juvenile survival increases with dispersal distance and varies across years: 15 years of evidence in a prairie perennial.

Juvenile survival is critical to population persistence and evolutionary change. However, the survival of juvenile plants from emergence to reproductive maturity is rarely quantified. This is especially true for long-lived perennials with extended pre-reproductive periods. Furthermore, studies rarely have the replication necessary to account for variation among populations and cohorts. We estimated juvenile survival and its relationship to population size, density of conspecifics, distance to the maternal plant, age, year, and cohort for Echinacea angustifolia, a long-lived herbaceous perennial. In 14 remnant prairie populations over seven sampling years, 2007-2013, we identified 886 seedlings. We then monitored these individuals annually until 2021 (8-15 years). Overall, juvenile mortality was very high; for almost all cohorts fewer than 10% of seedlings survived to age 8 or to year 2021. Only two of the seedlings reached reproductive maturity within the study period. Juvenile survival increased with distance from the maternal plant and varied more among the study years than it did by age or cohort. Juvenile survival did not vary with population size or local density of conspecific neighbors. Our results suggest that low juvenile survival could contribute to projected population declines.

Castration reduces mortality and increases resilience in male mice: what is next?

This commentary concerns our recent report that prepubertal castration rescued the shorter lifespan of males, using the first mouse line that robustly shows the same shorter longevity with a similar age-variable mortality disadvantage as human males. This model provides a unique opportunity for research to uncover the basis for this clinically important sex difference in aging. Researchers can now identify the hormones involved, the duration of exposure required, and, most important, the cellular and molecular targets, with the ultimate goal of developing therapeutic interventions to enhance health and reduce mortality without castration-compromising reproductive function.

The Epidemic Characteristics of Stroke Death from 2012 to 2021 in Chongqing, China.

INTRODUCTION: Stroke has become a major disease that threatens the global population's health and is a major public health problem that needs to be solved in China. Therefore, it is essential to analyze the trend of the mortality of stroke and its epidemic characteristic of stroke death. METHODS: Death cases of stroke were reported to the national death registry system by the medical staff of all medical institutions, and the population data every year were obtained from District or County's Statistic Bureau in Chongqing. They were analyzed to calculate the mortality, age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standardization population (ASMRC), age-specific mortality, proportion, and annual percent of change (APC) according to the ICD-10 code. ASMRC was based on the standard population of the 6th census in China, 2010. The stroke mortality of each subgroup was compared using the χ2 test. Trend analysis was presented by APC. RESULTS: The crude mortality of stroke increased from 96.29 per 100,000 in 2012 to 115.93 per 100,000 significantly, with the APC of 2.02% (t = 2.82, p = 0.022) in Chongqing. ASMRC of stroke was 56.47 per 100,000 in 2012 and 54.70 per 100,000 in 2021, and its trend change was stable (APC = -0.01, t = 0.07, p = 0.947). The crude mortality of stroke in males was higher than that in females every year (p < 0.05). The death proportion of intracerebral hemorrhage dwindled from 60.53% in 2012 to 49.88% in 2021, whereas the death proportion of ischemic stroke increased from 20.92% in 2012 to 39.96% in 2021. The average age of stroke death was delayed from 73.43 years old in 2012 to 76.52 years old in 2021 significantly (t = 18.12, p < 0.001). The percentage of stroke death at home increased from 75.23% in 2012 to 79.23% in 2021, while the percentage of stroke death at hospitals decreased from 17.89% in 2012 to 15.89% in 2021. CONCLUSION: The crude mortality of stroke surged, and intracerebral hemorrhage was the main death cause of all subtypes. The mortality of stroke in males and rural residents was higher than that in females and urban residents. Most stroke deaths occurred at home. Male and rural residents were crucial populations for stroke prevention and control. There should be improved medical resources in rural areas and enhanced capability of stroke diagnosis and treatment.

Prepubertal castration eliminates sex differences in lifespan and growth trajectories in genetically heterogeneous mice.

Sex differences in aging and longevity have been widely observed, with females consistently outliving males across human populations. However, the mechanisms driving these disparities remain poorly understood. In this study, we explored the influence of post-pubertal testicular effects on sex differences in aging by prepubertally castrating genetically heterogeneous (UM-HET3) mice, a unique mouse model that emulates human sex differences in age-related mortality. Prepubertal castration eliminated the longevity disparity between sexes by reducing the elevated early- to mid-life mortality rate observed in males and extending their median lifespan to match that of females. Additionally, castration extended the duration of body weight growth and attenuated the inverse correlation between early-age body weight and lifespan in males, aligning their growth trajectories with those of females. Our findings suggest that post-pubertal testicular actions in genetically diverse mice are primarily responsible for sex differences in longevity as well as growth trajectories. These findings offer a foundation for further investigation into the fundamental mechanisms driving sex-specific aging patterns and the development of potential pro-longevity interventions.

Geographical pattern of minerals and its association with health disparities in the USA.

This study aimed to determine the common latent patterns of geographical distribution of health-related minerals across the USA and to evaluate the real-world cumulative effects of these patterns on overall population health. It was an ecological study using county-level data (3080 contiguous counties) on the concentrations of 14 minerals (i.e., aluminum, arsenic, calcium, copper, iron, lead, magnesium, manganese, mercury, phosphorus, selenium, sodium, titanium, zinc) in stream sediments (or surface soils), and the measurements of overall health including life expectancy at birth, age-specific mortality risks and cause-specific (summarized by 21 mutually exclusive groups) mortality rates. Latent class analysis (LCA) was employed to identify the common clusters of life expectancy-related minerals based on their concentration characteristics. Multivariate linear regression analyses were then conducted to examine the relationship between the LCA-derived clusters and the health measurements, with adjustment for potential confounding factors. Five minerals (i.e., arsenic, calcium, selenium, sodium and zinc) were associated with life expectancy and were analyzed in LCA. Three clusters were determined across the USA, the 'common' (n = 2056, 66.8%), 'infertile' (n = 739, 24.0%) and 'plentiful' (n = 285, 9.3%) clusters. Residents in counties with the 'infertile' profile were associated with the shortest life expectancy, highest mortality risks at all ages, and highest mortality rates for many reasons including the top five leading causes of death: cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, neurological disorders, chronic respiratory conditions, and diabetes, urogenital, blood and endocrine diseases. Results remained statistically significant after confounding adjustment. Our study brings novel perspectives regarding environmental geochemistry to explain health disparities in the USA.

De que morrem as crianças de 5 a 14 anos no estado do Rio de Janeiro? Análise do período 2000-2019 / What do children aged 5 to 14 years die from in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil? Trend analysis of the period 2000-2019

Resumo Objetivou-se investigar a magnitude e a tendência da mortalidade de crianças de 5 a 14 anos por causas, no estado do Rio de Janeiro, de 2000 a 2019. Estudo ecológico de tendência temporal utilizando dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM). Calcularam-se taxas de mortalidade por 100 mil crianças, por capítulos, grupos e categorias (CID-10). Estimou-se a série temporal por regressão joinpoint. As taxas de mortalidade de 10 a 14 anos foram superiores às da faixa de 5 a 9 anos. As cinco principais causas foram as mesmas de 5 a 14 anos, com diferente ordem de importância. As duas principais foram causas externas e neoplasias (31% e 15% para 5 a 9 anos; 45% e 11% para 10 a 14 anos). De 5 a 9 anos, a tendência da mortalidade teve declínio anual (8%) entre 2011 e 2015. De 10 a 14 anos, o declínio anual foi 1,3%, de 2000 a 2019. A mortalidade por causas externas decresceu em ambas as faixas, menos para a categoria "Agressão por arma de fogo" (meninos,10-14 anos) e "Afogamento" (meninos, 5-9 anos). A mortalidade por neoplasias ficou estável para todos. Doenças infecciosas e respiratórias decresceram de forma diferenciada entre os grupos. A maioria das causas de morte é evitável ou tratável, apontando necessidade de investimentos em saúde e intersetoriais.

Abstract This study investigated the magnitude and trends of cause-specific mortality among children 5 to 14 years of age in the state of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) from 2000 to 2019. We performed an ecological study, using data from the Mortality Information System (MIS). We calculated mortality rates per 100,000 children by chapters, groups, and categories of causes of death (ICD-10). Trends were estimated by joinpoint regression. Mortality rates among children aged 10 to 14 years were higher than those among children 5 to 9. The five leading causes of death were the same in both age groups, but they ranked differently. The two leading ones were external causes and neoplasms (31% and 15% among children aged 5 to 9 years; 45% and 11% among children aged 10 to 14 years). Among children 5 to 9 years, the mortality trend showed an annual decline (8%) from 2011 to 2015. Among children aged 10 to 14 years, the annual decline was 1.3% from 2000 to 2019. Mortality due to external causes decreased in both age groups, except for the category "Assault by unspecified firearm" (boys, 10 to 14 years) and "Unspecified drowning and submersion" (boys, 5 to 9 years). Mortality caused by neoplasms remained steady in both age groups. Infectious and respiratory diseases decreased differently between the two groups. Most causes of death are preventable or treatable, indicating the need for health and intersectoral investments.

Age-specific mortality and fecundity of a spider mite under diet restriction and delayed mating.

Numerous experimental life-history studies on aging are mainly baised on two classical models-fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster (Meigen) and nematode Caenorhabditis elegans (Maupas)-with relatively little attention given to other organisms with different life-history characters. Two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae Koch (Acari: Tetranychidae) differs from many other arthropods in that the females continue their growth in the early adult stage and can reproduce sexually and asexually. In this study, the influences of dietary restriction and delayed mating on the aging patterns of the spider mite were examined with the prevailing survival and reproduction trade-off hypothesis of aging being tested. Significant sex-specific responses of the spider mites were found. The females showed longevity extension on diet restriction (fasting for 2 days in every 4 days) compared with their counterparts being fed ad libitum, and after delayed mating for 9 days, while the males displayed a decrease in lifespan when experiencing diet restriction but were not significantly influenced by delayed mating. Path analysis was used to investigate the relationship between mite survival and reproduction traits, including longevity, female lifetime reproduction, age at first reproduction, early reproductive efforts and late reproductive efforts, yielding no evidence for trade-offs between these life-history traits. The additive effects of dietary restriction and delayed mating in lifespan extension of female spider mites were confirmed, proving that diet restriction is a robust anti-aging intervention, and that later onset of reproduction can prolong adult lifespan in females.

Inequality in mortality between Black and White Americans by age, place, and cause and in comparison to Europe, 1990 to 2018.

Although there is a large gap between Black and White American life expectancies, the gap fell 48.9% between 1990 and 2018, mainly due to mortality declines among Black Americans. We examine age-specific mortality trends and racial gaps in life expectancy in high- and low-income US areas and with reference to six European countries. Inequalities in life expectancy are starker in the United States than in Europe. In 1990, White Americans and Europeans in high-income areas had similar overall life expectancy, while life expectancy for White Americans in low-income areas was lower. However, since then, even high-income White Americans have lost ground relative to Europeans. Meanwhile, the gap in life expectancy between Black Americans and Europeans decreased by 8.3%. Black American life expectancy increased more than White American life expectancy in all US areas, but improvements in lower-income areas had the greatest impact on the racial life expectancy gap. The causes that contributed the most to Black Americans' mortality reductions included cancer, homicide, HIV, and causes originating in the fetal or infant period. Life expectancy for both Black and White Americans plateaued or slightly declined after 2012, but this stalling was most evident among Black Americans even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. If improvements had continued at the 1990 to 2012 rate, the racial gap in life expectancy would have closed by 2036. European life expectancy also stalled after 2014. Still, the comparison with Europe suggests that mortality rates of both Black and White Americans could fall much further across all ages and in both high-income and low-income areas.

Inequalities in premature mortality due to cerebrovascular disease in Europe between 1990 and 2014 / A cerebrovascularis betegségekbol eredo, ido elotti halálozás egyenlotlenségei Európában 1990 és 2014 között.

Összefoglaló. Bevezetés: A cerebrovascularis betegségek népegészségügyi szempontból jelentosek, világszerte a vezeto halálokok között szerepelnek, és a rokkantság egyik fo okát képezik. Célkituzés: Vizsgálatunk célja a cerebrovascularis betegségekbol eredo, ido elotti halálozás hazai és nemzetközi adatainak elemzése régiónkénti bontásban a 45-59 éves korcsoportban. Módszerek: Retrospektív, kvantitatív elemzés keretében vizsgáltuk a cerebrovascularis betegségekbol eredo, korspecifikus, 1990 és 2014 közötti halálozást az Egészségügyi Világszervezet (WHO) Európai Régióján belül kiválasztott nyugat-európai (n = 17), kelet-európai országokban (n = 10) és a volt Szovjetunió utódállamaiban (n = 15), 100 000 fore vetítve, a WHO Európai Halálozási Adatbázisának adatai alapján. Leíró statisztikai módszereket, idosoros kimutatást, Kruskal-Wallis-próbát alkalmaztunk. Eredmények: A cerebrovascularis betegségekbol eredo, 100 000 fore vetített korspecifikus halálozás a nyugat-európai országokban volt a legalacsonyabb (férfiak: 1990: 35,14, 2014: 14,31; nok: 1990: 21,11, 2014: 8,76) és a Szovjetunió utódállamaiban a legmagasabb (férfiak: 1990: 134,19; 2014: 91,13; nok: 1990: 83,62, 2014: 41,83) (p<0,05). A kelet-európai és a nyugat-európai országok, valamint a nyugat-európai országok és a Szovjetunió utódállamainak korspecifikus, cerebrovascularis halálozása között szignifikáns különbséget találtunk mindkét nemben (1990, 2004, 2014: p<0,05). A cerebrovascularis betegségek korspecifikus standardizált halálozása 1990 és 2014 között a nyugat-európai országokban (férfiak: -59,28%, nok: -58,29%) csökkent a legnagyobb mértékben, melyet a vizsgált kelet-európai országok (férfiak: -54,14%, nok: -57,53%), majd a Szovjetunió utódállamai (férfiak: -32,09%, nok: -49,97%) követtek. Következtetések: A korspecifikus, cerebrovascularis halálozás a férfiak és a nok körében egyaránt csökkent az egyes régiókban. Magyarországon a nyugat-európai átlagnál jobban, 62,2%-kal csökkent a férfiak és 59,1%-kal a nok korai cerebrovascularis halálozása 1990 és 2014 között. Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(4): 144-152. INTRODUCTION: Cerebrovascular diseases are a significant public health concern, they are among the leading causes of death worldwide and one of the major causes of disability. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to analyse national and international data regarding premature, cerebrovascular disease mortality per region in the 45-59 age group. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, quantitative analysis on age-specific, premature cerebrovascular disease mortality between 1990 and 2014 per 100 000 population on data derived from the World Health Organisation, European Mortality Database on Western European (n = 17), Eastern European (n = 10) countries, and countries of the former Soviet Union (n = 15). Descriptive statistics, time series analysis and Kruskal-Wallis test were performed. RESULTS: Age-related, cerebrovascular disease mortality per 100 000 population was the lowest in Western European countries (males: 1990: 35.14, 2014: 14.31; females: 1990: 21.11, 2014: 8.76), and the highest in former Soviet Union countries (males: 1990: 134.19; 2014: 91.13; females: 1990: 83.62, 2014: 41.83) (p<0,05). Significant differences were found in age-specific, cerebrovascular disease mortality in both sexes between Eastern and Western European countries and former Soviet Union countries (1990, 2004, 2014: p<0.05). Between 1990 and 2014, age-specific, standardized cerebrovascular disease mortality showed the biggest decrease in Western European countries (males: -59.28%, females: -58.29%) followed by Eastern European (males: -54.14%, females: -57.53%) and former Soviet Union countries (males: -32.09%, females: -49.97%). CONCLUSIONS: Age-specific, cerebrovascular disease mortality decreased in both sexes in all regions analysed. Hungary was found to have seen a decrease above the Western European average, premature cerebrovascular mortality decreased by 62.2% in males and 59.1% in females between 1990 and 2014. Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(4): 144-152.

Genomics of Early Cardiac Dysfunction and Mortality in Obese Drosophila melanogaster.

In experimental evolution, we impose functional demands on laboratory populations of model organisms using selection. After enough generations of such selection, the resulting populations constitute excellent material for physiological research. An intense selection regime for increased starvation resistance was imposed on 10 large outbred Drosophila populations. We observed the selection responses of starvation and desiccation resistance, metabolic reserves, and heart robustness via electrical pacing. Furthermore, we sequenced the pooled genomes of these populations. As expected, significant increases in starvation resistance and lipid content were found in our 10 intensely selected SCO populations. The selection regime also improved desiccation resistance, water content, and glycogen content among these populations. Additionally, the average rate of cardiac arrests in our 10 obese SCO populations was double the rate of the 10 ancestral CO populations. Age-specific mortality rates were increased at early adult ages by selection. Genomic analysis revealed a large number of single nucleotide polymorphisms across the genome that changed in frequency as a result of selection. These genomic results were similar to those obtained in our laboratory from less direct selection procedures. The combination of extensive genomic and phenotypic differentiation between these 10 populations and their ancestors makes them a powerful system for the analysis of the physiological underpinnings of starvation resistance.

[Regularities of the dynamics of age-specific cancer mortality indicators in Russian population.]

Every year more than 600 000 (617 177 in 2017 year) of new cases of malignant neoplasms (cancer) and more than 290 000 (290 622 in 2017 year) of death are registered in Russia. Cancer is on the second place among all causes of death (15,9% - 2017 year) followed cardiovascular morbidity (48,8% - 2017 year), while in a number of economically developed countries the cancer treatment has reached a new level. About 20-25% of the population of Russia suffer from this disease. Malignant neoplasms are common noncommunicable diseases strongly associated with the age structure of the population. More than 70% (72,5%) of the diseased and about 80% (79,07%) of those who died in Russia were registered at pensionable age. Census data for the period since 1960 until now has shown, that the proportion of persons of retirement age has doubled, what certainly influenced the morbidity rate and number of deaths from malignant neoplasms. The population-based cancer registries, established in 1990s of XX century, contributed to improving the reliability of summarized data from the country's oncological service. It had become possible to conduct in-depth epidemiological studies of the malignant tumors prevalence. The dynamics of age-specific rates of mortality in Russia from cancer is overlooked in this paper, taking into account sex, age and leading localization of tumors. The specificity of the dynamics of the structure of oncopathology for men and women of different age groups is presented as well. The established patterns of the reduce mortality in Russia in standardized indices over a long period demonstrate the real success of the anti-cancer means.

Genetically heterogeneous mice exhibit a female survival advantage that is age- and site-specific: Results from a large multi-site study.

The female survival advantage is a robust characteristic of human longevity. However, underlying mechanisms are not understood, and rodent models exhibiting a female advantage are lacking. Here, we report that the genetically heterogeneous (UM-HET3) mice used by the National Institute on Aging Interventions Testing Program (ITP) are such a model. Analysis of age-specific survival of 3,690 control ITP mice revealed a female survival advantage paralleling that of humans. As in humans, the female advantage in mice was greatest in early adulthood, peaking around 350 days of age and diminishing progressively thereafter. This persistent finding was observed at three geographically distinct sites and in six separate cohorts over a 10-year period. Because males weigh more than females and bodyweight is often inversely related to lifespan, we examined sex differences in the relationship between bodyweight and survival. Although present in both sexes, the inverse relationship between bodyweight and longevity was much stronger in males, indicating that male mortality is more influenced by bodyweight than is female mortality. In addition, male survival varied more across site and cohort than female survival, suggesting greater resistance of females to environmental modulators of survival. Notably, at 24 months the relationship between bodyweight and longevity shifted from negative to positive in both sexes, similar to the human condition in advanced age. These results indicate that the UM-HET3 mouse models the human female survival advantage and provide evidence for greater resilience of females to modulators of survival.

Rising Mortality Rate of Cervical Cancer in Younger Women in Urban China.

BACKGROUND: In recent decades, much effort has been made in China to reduce the burden of cervical cancer. OBJECTIVE: Our study's purpose was to examine trends of cervical cancer mortality in each 5-year age group for urban and rural Chinese women, respectively. DESIGNS: Retrospective analysis of cervical cancer mortality from 1987 to 2015 from the World Health Organization Cancer Mortality Database and China Health Statistical Yearbooks. PARTICIPANTS: Chinese women. MAIN MEASURES: Trends were examined using annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) via Joinpoint regression models for each 5-year age group in urban and rural areas, respectively. RESULTS: In urban China, mortality rate of cervical cancer increased significantly among urban women aged 25-54 years (AAPC 2.12~5.49%), in contrast to a decline trend among urban women older than 60 years (AAPC - 3.61~- 5.35%). In rural China, cervical cancer rates declined in all age groups, but the magnitude was smaller in women aged 30-54 years (AAPC - 0.59~- 2.20%) compared to women older than 55 years (AAPC - 3.06~- 4.33%). CONCLUSION: Mortality rate of cervical cancer is rising at an alarming rate in younger women in urban China. Timely intervention is required for these vulnerable populations.

Unconditional probability of dying and age-specific mortality rate because of major non-communicable diseases in India: Time trends from 2001 to 2013.

Background: Unconditional probability of dying because of four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) between 30 and 70 years of age is the selected global indicator to measure the impact of NCD prevention and control programs. Objective: To calculate the unconditional probability of dying and age-specific mortality rate because of major NCDs in India from 2001 to 2013. Methods: This study used multiple data sources that are available in the public domain-Census 2001 and 2011, Sample Registration System, causes of death reports in 2001-03, 2004-06, and 2010-13. Unconditional probability of dying between ages 30 and 70 years during 2001, 2006, and 2013 was calculated by the formula suggested by the World Health Organization. Line graphs were used to depict time trends in age-specific mortality rates over the years in four major NCDs (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases). Results: The age-specific mortality rate because of four NCDs showed a decrease of 51 deaths per 100,000 population from 2001 to 2013. Of the four NCDs, age-specific mortality rate was highest in cardiovascular diseases (238.2/100,000 population) and least in diabetes mellitus (21.9/100,000 population); it was 76.3 and 58.2/100,000 population for cancer and chronic respiratory diseases, respectively. The probability of dying was very less and was almost the same from 30 to 44 years of life and increased steeply after that till 70 years of life; and it was more in males (24%) compared with females (17.4%). Conclusion: Although India has shown a decreasing trend in premature mortality because of NCDs in the past decade, the rate of decrease is not on par to achieve the global "25 × 25" target.

3D Age-Specific Mortality Trajectory: A Survival Analysis Protocol.

Three-dimensional age-specific mortality trajectory features the rate of aging and risk for mortality of a population with respect to time (t) and age (x). Demographic and clinical records of patients are key elements to the assessment of interventional outcomes during survival analysis. Herein, a step-by-step protocol shows the retrieval of parametric estimations from both conventional and modified maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to determine mortality trajectory of hematopoietic stem cells transplant (HSCT) patients characterized by their treatment type.

Age-specific excess mortality patterns and transmissibility during the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

PURPOSE: Although the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic was one of the most important epidemic events of the 19th century, little is known about the mortality impact of this pandemic based on detailed respiratory mortality data sets. METHODS: We estimated excess mortality rates for the 1889-1890 pandemic in Madrid from high-resolution respiratory and all-cause individual-level mortality data retrieved from the Gazeta de Madrid, the Official Bulletin of the Spanish government. We also generated estimates of the reproduction number from the early growth phase of the pandemic. RESULTS: The main pandemic wave in Madrid was evident from respiratory and all-cause mortality rates during the winter of 1889-1890. Our estimates of excess mortality for this pandemic were 58.3 per 10,000 for all-cause mortality and 44.5 per 10,000 for respiratory mortality. Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000). Although seniors experienced the highest absolute excess death rates, the standardized mortality ratio was highest among young adults aged 15-24 years. The early growth phase of the pandemic displayed dynamics consistent with an exponentially growing transmission process. Using the generalized-growth method, we estimated the reproduction number in the range of 1.2-1.3 assuming a 3-day mean generation interval and of 1.3-1.5 assuming a 4-day mean generation interval. CONCLUSIONS: Our study adds to our understanding of the mortality impact and transmissibility of the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic using detailed individual-level mortality data sets. More quantitative studies are needed to quantify the variability of the mortality impact of this understudied pandemic at regional and global scales.

Did the Great Recession affect mortality rates in the metropolitan United States? Effects on mortality by age, gender and cause of death.

OBJECTIVES: Mortality rates generally decline during economic recessions in high-income countries, however gaps remain in our understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This study estimates the impacts of increases in unemployment rates on both all-cause and cause-specific mortality across U.S. metropolitan regions during the Great Recession. METHODS: We estimate the effects of economic conditions during the recent and severe recessionary period on mortality, including differences by age and gender subgroups, using fixed effects regression models. We identify a plausibly causal effect by isolating the impacts of within-metropolitan area changes in unemployment rates and controlling for common temporal trends. We aggregated vital statistics, population, and unemployment data at the area-month-year-age-gender-race level, yielding 527,040 observations across 366 metropolitan areas, 2005-2010. RESULTS: We estimate that a one percentage point increase in the metropolitan area unemployment rate was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality of 3.95 deaths per 100,000 person years (95%CI -6.80 to -1.10), or 0.5%. Estimated reductions in cardiovascular disease mortality contributed 60% of the overall effect and were more pronounced among women. Motor vehicle accident mortality declined with unemployment increases, especially for men and those under age 65, as did legal intervention and homicide mortality, particularly for men and adults ages 25-64. We find suggestive evidence that increases in metropolitan area unemployment increased accidental drug poisoning deaths for both men and women ages 25-64. CONCLUSIONS: Our finding that all-cause mortality decreased during the Great Recession is consistent with previous studies. Some categories of cause-specific mortality, notably cardiovascular disease, also follow this pattern, and are more pronounced for certain gender and age groups. Our study also suggests that the recent recession contributed to the growth in deaths from overdoses of prescription drugs in working-age adults in metropolitan areas. Additional research investigating the mechanisms underlying the health consequences of macroeconomic conditions is warranted.

Dead or gone? Bayesian inference on mortality for the dispersing sex.

Estimates of age-specific mortality are regularly used in ecology, evolution, and conservation research. However, estimating mortality of the dispersing sex, in species where one sex undergoes natal dispersal, is difficult. This is because it is often unclear whether members of the dispersing sex that disappear from monitored areas have died or dispersed. Here, we develop an extension of a multievent model that imputes dispersal state (i.e., died or dispersed) for uncertain records of the dispersing sex as a latent state and estimates age-specific mortality and dispersal parameters in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. To check the performance of our model, we first conduct a simulation study. We then apply our model to a long-term data set of African lions. Using these data, we further study how well our model estimates mortality of the dispersing sex by incrementally reducing the level of uncertainty in the records of male lions. We achieve this by taking advantage of an expert's indication on the likely fate of each missing male (i.e., likely died or dispersed). We find that our model produces accurate mortality estimates for simulated data of varying sample sizes and proportions of uncertain male records. From the empirical study, we learned that our model provides similar mortality estimates for different levels of uncertainty in records. However, a sensitivity of the mortality estimates to varying uncertainty is, as can be expected, detectable. We conclude that our model provides a solution to the challenge of estimating mortality of the dispersing sex in species with data deficiency due to natal dispersal. Given the utility of sex-specific mortality estimates in biological and conservation research, and the virtual ubiquity of sex-biased dispersal, our model will be useful to a wide variety of applications.