ABSTRACT
This paper intends to look into the time-varying dynamic impact of US fuel ethanol, one of the renewable energy sources, on the prices of agricultural products (specifically corn, soybeans, rice, and wheat) in China based on monthly price data from January 2000 to January 2023. To achieve this, a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is employed, which takes into account structural changes in emergencies through time-varying parameters. The empirical results show that the equal-interval impulse responses of price fluctuations in agricultural commodities are primarily positive to variations in fuel ethanol prices and production. And the intensity and direction of the effects vary at distinct time lags. Additionally, the magnitude of these responses is most pronounced in the short term for all agricultural commodities except for corn, and the duration of the impulse responses at different time points is generally longer for corn prices compared to other commodities. The study also reveals that the influence of US fuel ethanol on Chinese agricultural commodity prices is not substantial on the whole. Therefore, there is a necessity to advance the growth of biofuels and provide policy support and financial subsidies for agricultural products earmarked for food production. These actions could shed insights into the progression of Chinese renewable energy and food policies, ensuring the stability of the market in the long run.
Subject(s)
Agriculture , Ethanol , China , Renewable Energy , Biofuels , Commerce , United StatesABSTRACT
A produção de erva-mate é uma das atividades não madeireiras que compõe o mercado agroflorestal brasileiro. No Rio Grande do Sul, este segmento é impulsionado pela tradição do consumo do chimarrão. Entretanto, nos últimos anos, observa-se que o estado gaúcho vem perdendo parcela significativa do mercado nacional, principalmente para o estado do Paraná. Nesse sentido, o presente estudo objetiva compreender a dinâmica produtiva e de comercialização deste produto, a partir da análise do comportamento dos preços pagos aos produtores rurais de erva-mate no Rio Grande do Sul, os preços diretos aos consumidores da erva-mate para chimarrão, além de dados estatísticos relacionados à produção de erva-mate. Evidencia-se que o modelo econométrico realizado para estimar o valor da erva-mate, embora indique a existência de associação linear positiva entre as variáveis dependente e independente, é considerado estatisticamente frágil. Ainda, cerca de 80% das variações no preço do quilograma da erva-mate no varejo de Porto Alegre são explicadas pelas variações no preço da arroba da erva-mate paga aos produtores rurais. Assim, reitera-se a necessidade de análises adicionais para identificar quais fatores exercem maior influência sobre o mercado da erva-mate, no contexto de expansão da demanda nacional e internacional.
The production of yerba mate is one of the non-lumberman forest activities that compose the Brazilian agroforestry market. In Rio Grande do Sul, this segment is propelled by tradition of mate consumption. However, in recent years, it is observed that Rio Grande do Sul state has been losing significant share of the domestic market, mainly to the state of Paraná. In this sense, this study aims to understand the dynamics of production and marketing of this product, from the analysis of the behavior of prices received by farmers of yerba mate in Rio Grande do Sul, prices direct to consumers of yerba mate as well as statistical data related to production of yerba mate. It is evident that the econometric model conducted to estimate the value of yerba mate, while indicating the existence of positive linear association between the dependent and independent variables, is considered statistically frail. Moreover, about 80% of the variations in the price of the kilogram of yerba mate in retail Porto Alegre are explained by variations in the price of the bushel of yerba mate paid to Rio Grande do Sul farmers. Thus, is reiterated the need for additional analyzes to identify the factors that have an influence on the market for yerba mate in the context of expansion of national and international demand.
ABSTRACT
Neste trabalho, objetivou-se analisar o comportamento de tendência, sazonalidade e ciclos dos preços reais pagos ao produtor de leite do Rio Grande do Sul de 1973 a 2007, bem como a evolução dos preços ao consumidor e da margem de comercialização. O estudo foi realizado com base nas séries históricas de preços nominais mensais de leite pagos ao produtor e pelos consumidores no Rio Grande do Sul, obtidas junto à EMATER/RS e ao IEPE/UFRGS, respectivamente. Os preços nominais foram deflacionados para dezembro de 2007 pelo IGP-DI da FGV. Calcularam-se os Índices de Preço ao Consumidor e ao Produtor, Índices de Estacionalidade, Relativos de Ciclo e Margens de Comercialização do produto. Observou-se que os preços pagos ao produtor apresentaram tendência de queda durante toda a série histórica. O mercado de leite apresentou ciclos históricos pouco regulares até o início da década de 1980, e a partir de 1987 observou-se forte tendência de mudança na trajetória dos índices de preço ao produtor e ao consumidor. A margem de comercialização do leite cresceu no período analisado, situando-se entre 27 por cento e 69 por cento.
The objective of this study is to analyse tendency behaviour, seasonality and price cycles of real prices paid to milk farmers in Rio Grande do Sul between 1973 and 2007, as well as the evolution of consumer prices and commercialization margins. The study was based on historical price series of nominal monthly milk prices paid to the producer and by consumers in Rio Grande do Sul, obtained through EMATER/RS and IEPE/UFRGS, respectively. The nominal prices were deflated for December 2007 according to the IGP-DI of the FGV. Consumer and farmer Price Indexes, Seasonal Indexes, relative cycles and product commercialization margins were calculated. It was observed that the prices paid to the farmer presented a decreasing tendency throughout the whole historical series. The milk market presented historical cycles generally regular until the beginning of the 1980s, and from 1987 on, a strong tendency toward change in farmer and consumer price indexes. The commercialization margin of milk increased during the period analysed, placing itself between 27 percent and 69 percent.
