ABSTRACT
Resumen ANTECEDENTES: La asociación entre pruebas de reserva ovárica y respuesta a la estimulación está debidamente establecida aunque su capacidad para predecir embarazo clínico y recién nacido vivo es limitada. OBJETIVO: Evaluar la utilidad clínica de la cuenta folicular antral para predecir embarazo clínico y recién nacido vivo. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS: Estudio de cohorte, retrospectivo, efectuado en el Instituto Nacional de Perinatología, entre 2011 y 2016 en ciclos de fertilización in vitro en fresco. Se incluyeron pacientes con diagnóstico de infertilidad a quienes se efectuó, in vitro, transferencia de embriones en fresco. Variables de estudio: edad, cuenta folicular antral, concentración basal de FSH y cantidad de ovocitos capturados. Se elaboró un modelo de regresión logística. Para el análisis estadístico se utilizó el programa Statistic Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Se consideró significativa la probabilidad de error alfa menor de 5%. RESULTADOS: Se analizaron 923 ciclos de fertilización in vitro. La cuenta folicular antral tiene predicción para detectar embarazo clínico con un área bajo la curva ROC de 0.59 y para recién nacido vivo de 0.57. El número óptimo con mayor porcentaje de embarazo clínico (9%) y recién nacido vivo (10.4%) tuvo cuenta folicular antral ≥ 8. CONCLUSIONES: Cuando la cuenta folicular antral es más o menos mayor de 8 folículos se espera mayor cantidad de embarazos clínicos y de recién nacidos.
Abstract BACKGROUND: The association between ovarian reserve test and ovarian response is well established, however, its ability to predict clinical pregnancy and the live birth is limited. OBJETIVE: Evaluate the clinical usefulness of the antral follicle count (AFC) to predict clinical pregnancy and live newborn. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort study was made. In fresh IVF cycles, performed at INPer between 2011-2016. Including patients diagnosed with infertility, who underwent in vitro fertilization with fresh embryo transfer. The study variables were age, antral follicle count, basal FSH concentration and number of oocytes captured. A binary logistic regression model was performed. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used for the statistical analysis. The probability of error alpha <5% was considered significant. RESULTS: A total of 923 in vitro fertilization cycles were included. The antral follicle count has a prediction for clinical pregnancy (ABC 0.59) and live birth (ABC 0.57). The optimal cut-off value with the highest percentage of clinical pregnancy (9%) and live birth (10.4%) was presented with a CFA ≥ 8. A higher pregnancy rate is reported when there is a follicular count above ≥8 follicles. CONCLUSIONS: It is expected the highest number of clinical pregnancy and live birth when the antral follicle count is for ≥8 follicles.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether ovarian reserve tests (ORTs) add prognostic value to patient characteristics, such as female age, in the prediction of excessive response to ovarian hyperstimulation in patients undergoing IVF, and whether their performance differs across clinical subgroups. DESIGN: Authors of studies reporting on basal FSH, antimüllerian hormone (AMH), or antral follicle count (AFC) in relation to ovarian response to ovarian hyperstimulation were invited to share original data. Random intercept logistic regression models were used to estimate added value of ORTs on patient characteristics, while accounting for between-study heterogeneity. Receiver operating characteristic regression analyses were performed to study the effect of patient characteristics on ORT accuracy. SETTING: In vitro fertilization clinics. PATIENT(S): A total of 4,786 women for the main analysis, with a subgroup of 1,023 women with information on all three ORTs. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Excessive response prediction. RESULT(S): We included 57 studies reporting on 32 databases. Female age had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.61 for excessive response prediction. Antral follicle count and AMH significantly added prognostic value to this. A model with female age, AFC, and AMH had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85. The combination of AMH and AFC, without age, had similar accuracy. Subgroup analysis indicated that FSH performed significantly worse in predicting excessive response in higher age groups, AFC did significantly better, and AMH performed the same. CONCLUSION(S): We demonstrate that AFC and AMH add value to female age in the prediction of excessive response and that, for AFC and FSH, the discriminatory performance is affected by female age.
