Trends in population attributable fraction of modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular diseases across three decades.

AIM: To evaluate temporal trends, across three decades, in the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of modifiable risk factors for 5-year risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). METHODS: Within population-based Rotterdam Study, we defined three time-groups of individuals without established CVD at 'baseline' with a mean age of 70 years, and followed for five years: Epoch 1990s (1989-1993, N=6195), Epoch 2000s (1997-2001, N=5572) and Epoch 2010s (2009-2014, N=5135). The prevalence of risk factors and related relative risks were combined to quantify PAFs. RESULTS: The PAF of the six risk factors combined for global CVD was 0.57 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47 to 0.65), 0.52 (0.39 to 0.62) and 0.39 (0.18 to 0.54) in three respective epochs. Hypertension contributed the highest PAF to global CVD in Epoch 1990s (0.37, 95% CI: 0.28 to 0.44) and 2000s (0.34, 95% CI: 0.22 to 0.43), while smoking was the largest contributor in Epoch 2010s (0.20, 95% CI: 0.06 to 0.32). Dyslipidemia changed population-level coronary heart disease risk over time. For stroke, hypertension became a less significant contributor over time, but smoking became a larger contributor. For heart failure, all risk factors showed non-significant PAFs in Epoch 2010s. PAFs related to individual risk factor varied among women and men. CONCLUSION: Six modifiable risk factors to population-level global CVD risk decreased over time, but still explained 39% of total CVD in the latest decade. PAFs changed considerably for hypertension, dyslipidemia, and smoking. Risk factors had different PAFs for different CVDs with pronounced sex differences.

The contribution of the individual cardiovascular risk factors to population CVD risk considerably changed over the past 3 decades, especially for hypertension, dyslipidemia, and smoking. Traditional modifiable risk factors exerted declining contributions to population burden of total CVD over the past three decades, suggesting good progress in CVD prevention. Nonetheless, in the latest decade, unfavorable risk factors accounted for 39% of total CVD burden. Sex differences in the contributions of abdominal obesity, diabetes and smoking to cardiovascular outcomes were observed.

Private vs. public emergency visits for mental health due to heat: An indirect socioeconomic assessment of heat vulnerability and healthcare access, in Curitiba, Brazil.

Few studies have explored the influence of socioeconomic status (SES) on the heat vulnerability of mental health (MH) patients. As individual socioeconomic data was unavailable, we aimed to fill this gap by using the healthcare system type as a proxy for SES. Brazilian national statistics indicate that public patients have lower SES than private. Therefore, we compared the risk of emergency department visits (EDVs) for MH between patients from both healthcare types. EDVs for MH disorders from all nine public (101,452 visits) and one large private facility (154,954) in Curitiba were assessed (2017-2021). Daily mean temperature was gathered and weighed from 3 stations. Distributed-lag non-linear model with quasi-Poisson (maximum 10-lags) was used to assess the risk. We stratified by private and public, age, and gender under moderate and extreme heat. Additionally, we calculated the attributable fraction (AF), which translates individual risks into population-representative burdens - especially useful for public policies. Random-effects meta-regression pooled the risk estimates between healthcare systems. Public patients showed significant risks immediately as temperatures started to increase. Their cumulative relative risk (RR) of MH-EDV was 7.5 % higher than the private patients (Q-Test 26.2 %) under moderate heat, suggesting their particular heat vulnerability. Differently, private patients showed significant risks only under extreme heat, when their RR became 4.3 % higher than public (Q-Test 6.2 %). These findings suggest that private patients have a relatively greater adaptation capacity to heat. However, when faced with extreme heat, their current adaptation means were potentially insufficient, so they needed and could access healthcare freely, unlike their public counterparts. MH patients would benefit from measures to reduce heat vulnerability and access barriers, increasing equity between the healthcare systems in Brazil. AF of EDVs due to extreme heat was 0.33 % (95%CI 0.16;0.50) for the total sample (859 EDVs). This corroborates that such broad population-level policies are urgently needed as climate change progresses.

What is the impact of job precariousness on depression? Risk assessment and attributable fraction in Spain.

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of depression related to precarious employment (PE) has become a significant public health concern, given the declining trend of the standard employment relationship. Research has focused on the mental health detrimental effects of employment conditions, whereas there is scarce evidence concerning the burden of depression that could be prevented by targeting precariousness. This paper estimates the impact of PE on the risk of depression and the attributable fraction within the active and working salaried population in Spain. STUDY DESIGN: Observational cross-sectional on data drawn from the Spanish portion of European Health Survey 2020. METHODS: After applying selection criteria and descriptives, binary logistic regression models stratified by sex are used to examine the associations between a 9-categories combination of employment precariousness and occupational social class, and depressive symptoms. RESULTS: There is a higher risk of depression among individuals in PE and among those who are unemployed, with a notable gradient based on occupational social class for women. Adjusting by sex, age and foreign-born origin, we estimate that approximately 15.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0%-26.2%) of depression cases among the working population and 33.3% (95% CI: 23.2%-43.2) among the active population can be attributed to PE. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the public health impact of PE on mental health, provide evidence to estimate the economic burden linked to employment-related mental health, and underscore the need for policy changes and interventions at the level of labour markets and workplaces to mitigate the detrimental effects of PE.

Cardiovascular admission risk attributable to hot apparent temperature: a study in a rural area of northwest China.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality worldwide, posing a significant threat to public health. Research on the relationship between CVD and temperature has primarily focused on developed urban settings, with limited studies conducted in rural regions with lower levels of development. Additionally, compared to relative risks, attributable risks can provide more information when assessing the risk of CVD hospitalizations associated with exposure to apparent temperature (AT). Apparent temperature is a composite temperature index that takes into account both meteorological factors and temperature, providing an objective reflection of human thermal sensation. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of AT on CVD hospitalization and quantifies the burden of CVD admission in the rural areas of China. We employed the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to estimate the relationship between AT and the relative risk (RR) of CVD hospitalization. Finally, we used attributable risk methods to quantify this relationship further.

Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) of cancer in the fetus associated with maternal radiography examinations.

PURPOSE: For various reasons, pregnant women are occasionally exposed to ionizing radiation during radiology examinations. In these situations, it is essential to determine the radiation dose to the fetus and any associated risks. The present study attempts to calculate the mean dose for the fetus to estimate the possible cancer induction and cancer mortality risks resulting from maternal radiography exams. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The GATE Monte Carlo platform and a standard voxelized pregnant phantom were employed to calculate fetal radiation dose during maternal radiography exams. The data published in Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII were used to convert fetal dose to lifetime attributable risks (LARs) of cancer incidence and cancer-related mortality. RESULTS: The fetal doses and LARs of cancer incidence and cancer-related mortality for the radiographs of the chest and skull were negligible. The maximum LAR values for the lateral view of the abdomen in computed and digital radiography are 5598.29 and 2238.95 per 100,000 individuals, respectively. The computed radiography of the lateral view of the abdomen revealed the highest LAR of cancer-related mortality (2074.30 deaths for every 100,000 people). CONCLUSION: The radiation dose incurred by the fetus due to chest and skull radiographs was minimal and unlikely to cause any abnormalities in the fetus. The discernible elevation in the lifetime attributable risk associated with cancer incidence and mortality arising from lateral computed radiography examinations of the abdomen warrants careful consideration within the realm of maternal radiography examinations.

All-cause, premature, and cardiovascular death attributable to socioeconomic and ethnic disparities among New Zealanders with type 1 diabetes 1994-2019: a multi-linked population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: New Zealand (NZ) research into type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) mortality can inform policy and future research. In this study we aimed to quantify the magnitude to which ethnicity and socioeconomic disparities influenced mortality at the population level among people with Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) in Auckland, New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: The cohort data were derived from the primary care diabetes audit program the Diabetes Care Support Service (DCSS), and linked with national primary care, pharmaceutical claims, hospitalisation, and death registration databases. People with T1DM enrolled in DCSS between 1994-2018 were included. All-cause, premature, and cardiovascular mortalities were estimated by Poisson regression models with adjustment for population-level confounders. The mortality rates ratio (MRR) was standardized against the DCSS type 2 diabetes population. Mortality rates were compared by ethnic group (NZ European (NZE) and non-NZE) and socioeconomic deprivation quintile. The population attributable fraction (PAF) was estimated for ethnic and socioeconomic disparities by Cox regression adjusting for demographic, lifestyle, and clinical covariates. The adjusted slope index inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used to measure the socioeconomic disparity in mortalities. RESULTS: Overall, 2395 people with T1DM (median age 34.6 years; 45% female; 69% NZE) were enrolled, among whom the all-cause, premature and CVD mortalities were 6.69 (95% confidence interval: 5.93-7.53), 3.30 (2.77-3.90) and 1.77 (1.39-2.23) per 1,000 person-years over 25 years. The overall MRR was 0.39 (0.34-0.45), 0.65 (0.52-0.80), and 0.31 (0.24-0.41) for all-cause, premature and CVD mortality, respectively. PAF attributable to ethnicity disparity was not significantly different for mortality. The adjusted PAF indicated that 25.74 (0.84-44.39)% of all-cause mortality, 25.88 (0.69-44.69)% of premature mortality, 55.89 (1.20-80.31)% of CVD mortality could be attributed to socioeconomic inequality. The SII was 8.04 (6.30-9.78), 4.81 (3.60-6.02), 2.70 (1.82-3.59) per 1,000 person-years and RII was 2.20 (1.94-2.46), 2.46 (2.09-2.82), and 2.53 (2.03-3.03) for all-cause, premature and CVD mortality, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that socioeconomic disparities were responsible for a substantial proportion of all-cause, premature and CVD mortality in people with T1DM in Auckland, NZ. Reducing socioeconomic barriers to management and self-management would likely improve clinical outcomes.

How multiple air pollutants affect hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence in children: assessing effect modification by geographical context in multicity of Sichuan, southwest China.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have suggested a significant association of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) with ambient air pollutants. Existing studies have characterized the role of air pollutants on HFMD using only risk ratio measures while ignoring the attributable burden. And whether the geographical context (i.e., diverse topographic features) could modulate the relationships is unclear. METHODS: Daily reported childhood HFMD counts, ambient air pollution, and meteorological data during 2015-2017 were collected for each of 21 cities in Sichuan Province. A multistage analysis was carried out in different populations based on geographical context to assess effect modification by topographic conditions. We first constructed a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for each city to describe the relationships with risk ratio measures. Then, we applied a multivariate meta-regression to estimate the pooled effects of multiple air pollutants on HFMD from the exposure and lagged dimensions. Finally, attributable risks measures were calculated to quantify HFMD burden by air pollution. RESULTS: Based on 207554 HFMD cases in Sichuan Province, significant associations of HFMD with ambient air pollutants were observed mainly at relatively high exposure ranges. The effects of ambient air pollutants on HFMD are most pronounced on lag0 or around lag7, with relative risks gradually approaching the reference line thereafter. The attributable risks of O3 were much greater than those of other air pollutants, particularly in basin and mountain regions. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed significant pooled relationships between multiple air pollutants and HFMD incidence from both exposure and lag dimensions. However, the specific effects, including RRs and ARs, differ depending on the air pollution variable and geographical context. These findings provide local authorities with more evidence to determine key air pollutants and regions for devising and implementing targeted interventions.

Association between temperature and mortality: a multi-city time series study in Sichuan Basin, southwest China.

BACKGROUND: There are few multi-city studies on the association between temperature and mortality in basin climates. This study was based on the Sichuan Basin in southwest China to assess the association of basin temperature with non-accidental mortality in the population and with the temperature-related mortality burden. METHODS: Daily mortality data, meteorological and air pollution data were collected for four cities in the Sichuan Basin of southwest China. We used a two-stage time-series analysis to quantify the association between temperature and non-accidental mortality in each city, and a multivariate meta-analysis was performed to obtain the overall cumulative risk. The attributable fractions (AFs) were calculated to access the mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperature. Additionally, we performed a stratified analyses by gender, age group, education level, and marital status. RESULTS: A total of 751,930 non-accidental deaths were collected in our study. Overall, 10.16% of non-accidental deaths could be attributed to non-optimal temperatures. A majority of temperature-related non-accidental deaths were caused by low temperature, accounting for 9.10% (95% eCI: 5.50%, 12.19%), and heat effects accounted for only 1.06% (95% eCI: 0.76%, 1.33%). The mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures was higher among those under 65 years old, females, those with a low education level, and those with an alternative marriage status. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggested that a significant association between non-optimal temperature and non-accidental mortality. Those under 65 years old, females, and those with a low educational level or alternative marriage status had the highest attributable burden.

Estimation and comparison of the effective dose and lifetime attributable risk of thyroid cancer between males and females in routine head computed tomography scans: a multicentre study.

INTRODUCTION: A significant number of head computed tomography (CT) scans are performed annually. However, due to the close proximity of the thyroid gland to the radiation field, this procedure can expose the gland to ionising radiation. Consequently, this study aimed to estimate organ dose, effective dose (ED) and lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of thyroid cancer from head CT scans in adults. METHODS: Head CT scans of 74 patients (38 males and 36 females) were collected using three different CT scanners. Age, sex, and scanning parameters, including scan length, tube current-time product (mAs), pitch, CT dose index, and dose-length product (DLP) were collected. CT-Expo software was used to calculate thyroid dose and ED for each patient based on scan parameters. LARs were subsequently computed using the methodology presented in the Biologic Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) Phase VII report. RESULTS: Although the mean thyroid organ dose (2.66 ± 1.03 mGy) and ED (1.6 ± 0.4 mSv) were slightly higher in females, these differences were not statistically significant compared to males (mean thyroid dose, 2.52 ± 1.31 mGy; mean ED, 1.5 ± 0.4 mSv). Conversely, there was a significant difference between the mean thyroid LAR of females (0.91 ± 1.35) and males (0.20136 ± 0.29) (P = 0.001). However, the influencing parameters were virtually identical for both groups. CONCLUSIONS: The study's results indicate that females have a higher LAR than males, which can be attributed to higher radiation sensitivity of the thyroid in females. Thus, additional care in the choice of scan parameters and irradiated scan field for female patients is recommended.

Smoking-attributable mortality among Korean adults in 2019.

OBJECTIVES: Tobacco use ranks among the leading preventable causes of death worldwide. This study was conducted to calculate the mortality rate attributable to smoking in Korea for 2019 and to highlight the importance of tracking and monitoring smoking-related deaths for public health purposes. METHODS: Population attributable risk (PAR) was used to estimate the number of deaths related to smoking in 2019. PAR percentages were applied to the estimated mortality figures for various diseases, with PAR determined based on relative risk (RR). Levin's formula was used to calculate PAR, and RR was adjusted for age and alcohol consumption using Cox proportional hazards regression model to derive disease-specific regression coefficients. The analysis incorporated previously determined smoking rates from 1985, and use rates of novel tobacco products were not considered. RESULTS: The findings revealed a total of 67,982 smoking-attributable deaths in Korea in 2019, 56,993 of which occurred in men and 11,049 in women. The PAR of smoking for various causes of death in adult men was highest for lung cancer at 74.9%, followed by pneumonia (29.4%), ischemic heart disease (42.3%), and stroke (30.2%). For women, the PAR for smoking-related death was highest for lung cancer (19.9%), followed by stroke (7.6%), pneumonia (5.7%), and ischemic heart disease (9.1%). CONCLUSIONS: In countries experiencing rapid fluctuations in smoking rates, including Korea, regular studies on smoking-related mortality is imperative. Furthermore, it is necessary to investigate smoking-related deaths, including the prevalence of novel tobacco product use, to accurately gauge the risks associated with emerging tobacco products.

Population Attributable Fraction of Nonvaccination of COVID-19 Due to Vaccine Hesitancy, United States, 2021.

Understanding the extent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) nonvaccination attributable to vaccine hesitancy versus other barriers can help prioritize approaches for increasing vaccination uptake. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Research and Development Survey, a nationally representative survey fielded from May 1 to June 30, 2021 (n = 5,458), we examined the adjusted population attribution fraction (PAF) of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy attributed to nonvaccination according to sociodemographic characteristics and health-related variables. Overall, the adjusted PAF of nonvaccination attributed to vaccine hesitancy was 76.1%. The PAF was highest among adults who were ≥50 years of age (87.9%), were non-Hispanic White (83.7%), had a bachelor's degree or higher (82.7%), had an annual household income of at least $75,000 (85.5%), were insured (82.4%), and had a usual place for health care (80.7%). The PAF was lower for those who were current smokers (65.3%) compared with never smokers (77.9%), those who had anxiety or depression (65.2%) compared with those who did not (80.1%), and those who had a disability (64.5%) compared with those who did not (79.2%). Disparities in PAF suggest areas for prioritization of efforts for intervention and development of messaging campaigns that address all barriers to uptake, including hesitancy and access, to advance health equity and protect individuals from COVID-19.

The added effects of cold spells on stroke admissions: Differential effects on ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence suggests an association between low ambient temperature and stroke risk, but available data are limited particularly on associations with different stroke subtypes. AIMS: The aim of this study is to estimate the relationship between cold spells and stroke admissions, including the effect of cold spells on different stroke subtypes (ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH)). METHODS: A total of 144,405 stroke admissions from the Tianjin Centre for Health and Meteorology Multidisciplinary Innovation in China, covering the period from January 2016 to December 2020, were studied, as well as meteorological and air pollutant data. A generalized additive model with a distributed lag nonlinear model was employed to assess the relationship, considering 12 different definitions of a cold spell based on various temperature thresholds and durations. The analysis controlled for lagged and nonlinear effects of temperature. Analyses were performed on all strokes as well as ischemic stroke and ICH. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in stroke admissions during cold spells. Generally, the increased risk during cold spells increased as the temperature threshold decreased, but was not significantly affected by the duration. The optimal model was obtained using the cold-spell definition based on an average daily temperature below the 10th percentile (0.11°C) for 2 or more consecutive days. According to this model, the effect of cold spells on ischemic stroke admissions had a significant lag effect and was long-lasting, with a single-day effect occurring on lag 7d, peaking on lag 13d (relative risk (RR) = 1.05; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02 to 1.09), and lasting until lag 20d. In contrast, the effect on ICH was immediate and short-lived, with the most significant single-day effect occurring on the current day (RR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.29) and limited within 3 days. 14.15% of stroke cases could be attributed to cold spells, with ICH exhibiting a higher burden than ischemic stroke except for strict temperature threshold definitions. CONCLUSION: Cold spells are associated with an increased stroke risk. Different patterns of association were seen for different stroke subtypes. The effect on ischemic stroke had a lag effect and a longer duration, whereas the effect on ICH had an immediate effect and a shorter duration. These findings support the development and improvement of stroke cold-spell early warning systems and highlight the importance of public health interventions to mitigate the adverse health impacts of cold spells.

The role of absolute humidity in influenza transmission in Beijing, China: risk assessment and attributable fraction identification.

To assess the impact of absolute humidity on influenza transmission in Beijing from 2014 to 2019, we estimated the influenza transmissibility via the instantaneous reproduction number (Rt), and evaluated its nonlinear exposure-response association and delayed effects with absolute humidity by using the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Attributable fraction (AF) of Rt due to absolute humidity was calculated. The result showed a significant M-shaped relationship between Rt and absolute humidity. Compared with the effect of high absolute humidity, the low absolute humidity effect was more immediate with the most significant effect observed at lag 6 days. AFs were relatively high for the group aged 15-24 years, and was the lowest for the group aged 0-4 years with low absolute humidity. Therefore, we concluded that the component attributed to the low absolute humidity effect is greater. Young and middle-aged people are more sensitive to low absolute humidity than children and elderly.

Effects of ambient air pollution on the hospitalization risk and economic burden of mental disorders in Qingdao, China.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the impacts of short-term exposure to air pollutants on hospitalizations for mental disorders (MDs) in Qingdao, a Chinese coastal city, and to assess the corresponding hospitalization risk and economic cost. METHODS: Daily data on MD hospitalizations and environmental variables were collected from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. An overdispersed generalized additive model was used to estimate the association between air pollution and MD hospitalizations. The cost of illness method was applied to calculate the corresponding economic burden. RESULTS: With each 10 µg/m3 increase in the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at lag05, inhalable particulate matter (PM10) at lag0, sulfur dioxide (SO2) at lag06 and ozone (O3) at lag0, the corresponding relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were 1.0182 (1.0035-1.0332), 1.0063 (1.0001-1.0126), 1.0997 (1.0200-1.1885) and 1.0099 (1.0005-1.0194), respectively. However, no significant effects of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) or carbon monoxide (CO) were found. Stratified analysis showed that males were susceptible to SO2 and O3, while females were susceptible to PM2.5. Older individuals (≥ 45 years) were more vulnerable to air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and O3) than younger individuals (< 45 years). Taking the Global Air Quality Guidelines 2021 as a reference, 8.71% (2,168 cases) of MD hospitalizations were attributable to air pollutant exposure, with a total economic burden of 154.36 million RMB. CONCLUSION: Short-term exposure to air pollution was associated with an increased risk of hospitalization for MDs. The economic advantages of further reducing air pollution are enormous.

Prevalence of and risk factors for sarcopenia in community-dwelling people: The Vietnam Osteoporosis Study.

BACKGROUND: Sarcopenia is a geriatric disease characterized by the progressive and generalized loss of skeletal lean mass and strength with age. The prevalence of sarcopenia in the Vietnamese population is unknown. This study sought to estimate the prevalence of and risk factors for sarcopenia among community-dwelling individuals in Vietnam. METHODS: This cross-sectional study is part of the ongoing Vietnam Osteoporosis Study project. The study involved 1308 women and 591 men aged 50 years and older as at 2015 (study entry). Whole-body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure the appendicular skeletal lean mass. Anthropometric and clinical data were collected using a structured questionnaire. Sarcopenia was defined according to the criteria proposed by the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia in 2019. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the association between potential risk factors and sarcopenia. RESULTS: The prevalence of sarcopenia in women and men was 14% (n = 183) and 16% (n = 83), respectively. Age (odds ratio [OR] per 10 years = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-1.48) and being underweight (OR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.00-2.58) were independently associated with increased risk of sarcopenia. The combination of low physical activity, being underweight and advancing age accounted for ~27% of sarcopenic patients. However, most of the attributable fraction was due to ageing. CONCLUSIONS: Sarcopenia is common in community-dwelling Vietnamese adults, particularly those with advancing age, who are underweight and with low physical activity.

Estimating cancers attributable to physical inactivity in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: It was previously estimated that 1814 (1.6 % of incident cancers) were attributable to physical inactivity in Australia in 2010, when only three sites were considered. We estimated the burden of cancer due to physical inactivity in Australia for 13 sites. DESIGN: The population attributable fraction estimated site-specific cancer cases attributable to physical inactivity for 13 cancers. The potential impact fraction was used to estimate cancers that could have been prevented in 2015 if Australian adults had increased their physical activity by a modest amount in 2004-05. METHODS: We used 2004-05 national physical activity prevalence data, 2015 national cancer incidence data, and contemporary relative-risk estimates for physical inactivity and cancer. We assumed a 10-year latency period. RESULTS: An estimated 6361 of the cancers observed in 2015 were attributable to physical inactivity, representing 4.8 % of all cancers diagnosed. If Australian adults had increased their physical activity by one category in 2004-05, 2564 cases (1.9 % of all cancers) could have been prevented in 2015. CONCLUSIONS: More than three times as many cancers are attributable to physical inactivity than previously reported. Physical activity promotion should be a central component of cancer prevention programmes in Australia.

Association between temperature and mortality: a multi-city time series study in Sichuan Basin, southwest China

BACKGROUND@#There are few multi-city studies on the association between temperature and mortality in basin climates. This study was based on the Sichuan Basin in southwest China to assess the association of basin temperature with non-accidental mortality in the population and with the temperature-related mortality burden.@*METHODS@#Daily mortality data, meteorological and air pollution data were collected for four cities in the Sichuan Basin of southwest China. We used a two-stage time-series analysis to quantify the association between temperature and non-accidental mortality in each city, and a multivariate meta-analysis was performed to obtain the overall cumulative risk. The attributable fractions (AFs) were calculated to access the mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperature. Additionally, we performed a stratified analyses by gender, age group, education level, and marital status.@*RESULTS@#A total of 751,930 non-accidental deaths were collected in our study. Overall, 10.16% of non-accidental deaths could be attributed to non-optimal temperatures. A majority of temperature-related non-accidental deaths were caused by low temperature, accounting for 9.10% (95% eCI: 5.50%, 12.19%), and heat effects accounted for only 1.06% (95% eCI: 0.76%, 1.33%). The mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures was higher among those under 65 years old, females, those with a low education level, and those with an alternative marriage status.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Our study suggested that a significant association between non-optimal temperature and non-accidental mortality. Those under 65 years old, females, and those with a low educational level or alternative marriage status had the highest attributable burden.

HPV genotype-specific distribution and attributable risk in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in a referral population with a history of LSIL.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: CINtec PLUS and cobas HPV tests (Roche) were previously ascertained for triaging an LSIL referral population [1]. As part of this study, genotype-specific distribution and attributable risk of high-risk (HR)-HPV in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) were determined. METHODS: Archived cervical specimens in ThinPrep PreservCyt (Hologic Inc) from the LSIL referral population (n= 533) were genotyped using the Anyplex II HPV HR test (Anyplex, Seegene Inc). Since the study specimens had been in storage in ambient temperature for 31-47 months since collection, Anyplex results were compared with that of the initial cobas testing of fresh specimens to validate the suitability and stability of specimens for the present study. RESULTS: Overall, Anyplex test was positive in 63% (336/533) vs. 55.7% (297/533) for cobas test. Anyplex test performed identical to cobas test identifying 93.2% (82/88) of ⩾CIN2/adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS). Anyplex test detected genotypes 16/18 in 15.7% (36/230) ⩽CIN1 vs. 45.5% (40/88) ⩾CIN2/AIS; the corresponding figures were 13.5% (31/230) and 45.5% (40/48) for the cobas test. Genotype 16 showed increasing attribution, 13.2% in CIN1, 27.1% in CIN2 and 40% in CIN3/AIS. Of the 12 other high-risk (OHR) types collectively identified by cobas, Anyplex test specifically detected, in decreasing order, genotypes 51, 31, 35, 56, 39, and 45 as the most frequent types, often in multiple-type infections, in 64.8% ⩾CIN2. Regardless, estimated attribution was evident for each of the 12 OHR types in ⩾CIN2. Multiple-type infections were more frequent than single-type infections in all CIN grades. CONCLUSIONS: Attributable risk of all HR-HPV genotypes targeted by both Anyplex and cobas tests was evident in ⩾CIN2/AIS Testing for these genotypes in HPV primary cervical screening and cytology triage could identify those at increased risk of cervical cancer and also be beneficial in the management of LSIL referral populations.

Projection of high temperature-related burden of kidney disease in Australia under different climate change, population and adaptation scenarios: population-based study.

Background: The dual impacts of a warming climate and population ageing lead to an increasing kidney disease prevalence, highlighting the importance of quantifying the burden of kidney disease (BoKD) attributable to high temperature, yet studies on this subject are limited. The study aims to quantify the BoKD attributable to high temperatures in Australia across all states and territories, and project future BoKD under climatic, population and adaptation scenarios. Methods: Data on disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) due to kidney disease, including years of life lost (YLL), and years lived with disability (YLD), were collected during 2003-2018 (baseline) across all states and territories in Australia. The temperature-response association was estimated using a meta-regression model. Future temperature projections were calculated using eight downscaled climate models to estimate changes in attributable BoKD centred around 2030s and 2050s, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), while considering changes in population size and age structure, and human adaptation to climate change. Findings: Over the baseline (2003-2018), high-temperature contributed to 2.7% (Standard Deviation: 0.4%) of the observed BoKD in Australia. The future population attributable fraction and the attributable BoKD, projected using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, showed a gradually increasing trend when assuming no human adaptation. Future projections were most strongly influenced by the population change, with the high temperature-related BoKD increasing by 18.4-67.4% compared to the baseline under constant population and by 100.2-291.2% when accounting for changes in population size and age structure. However, when human adaptation was adopted (from no to partial to full), the high temperature-related BoKD became smaller. Interpretation: It is expected that increasing high temperature exposure will substantially contribute to higher BoKD across Australia, underscoring the urgent need for public health interventions to mitigate the negative health impacts of a warming climate on BoKD. Funding: Australian Research Council Discovery Program.

Assessing the Risk of Secondary Cancer Induction in Radiosensitive Organs During Trigeminal Neuralgia Treatment With Gamma Knife Radiosurgery: Impact of Extracranial Dose.

Purpose: Gamma knife radiosurgery (GKRS) delivers high-dose external radiation to a small intracranial lesion. However, scattering and leaked radiation can deposit a portion of the dose outside the radiation field, which may pose a risk to radiation-sensitive patients, such as pregnant women. Trigeminal Neuralgia (TN) is treated with one of the highest GKRS doses (80-90 Gy). This study aimed to estimate the risk of secondary cancer induction in the uterus, ovaries, thyroid gland, and eyes of TN patients undergoing GKRS. Methods: Radiation doses to the uterus, ovary, eyes, and thyroid gland were measured for 25 female TN patients, with a mean age of 35 years, utilizing Thermo Luminescent Dosimeters (TLD). Results: The mean absorbed dose for the uterus, ovary, thyroid gland, and eyes were .63 ± .24, .471 ± .2, 8.26 ± 1.01, and 10.64 ± 1.08 cGy, respectively. Lifetime Attributable Risk (LAR) has been calculated using BEIR VII (2006) method. LAR for the uterus, ovary, and thyroid gland was 1, 2, and 23, respectively. Conclusion: The results of this study and its comparison with standard values demonstrate that on average, mean doses to mentioned organs were smaller than their tolerance doses, and there is no limitation to treating patients suffering from TN by GK.