An international relations quantitative evaluation model (IRQEM) based on an integrated method.

International relations (IR) have great uncertainty and instability. Bad IR or conflicts will bring about heavy economic losses and widespread social unrest domestically and internationally. The accurate prediction for bilateral relations can support decision making for timely responses, which will be used to find ways to maintain development in the complex international situation. An international relations quantitative evaluation model (IRQEM) is proposed by integrating a variety of research models and methods like the interpretative structural modeling method (ISM), Bayesian network (BN) model, the Bayesian search (BS), and the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, which is novel for IR research. Factors from several different fields are identified as BN nodes. Each node is assigned different state values. The hierarchical structure of these BN nodes is obtained by ISM. The data collection of 192 cases is used to construct the BN model by GeNIe 4.0. The IRQEM can be used to evaluate the influence of emergencies on IR. The critical factors of IR also can be explored through our proposed model. Results show that the prediction of bilateral relations under emergencies can be realized by updating the indicator set when emergencies occur. The capability to anticipate threats of IR changes is advanced by optimizing the reporting information of IR forecasting through a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, charts, and texts. Relevant analysis results can provide support for national security decision making.

Identifying influencing factors of metabolic syndrome in patients with major depressive disorder: A real-world study with Bayesian network modeling.

BACKGROUND: The bidirectional relationships between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and major depressive disorder (MDD) were discovered, but the influencing factors of the comorbidity were barely investigated. We aimed to fully explore the factors and their associations with MetS in MDD patients. METHODS: The data were retrieved from the electronic medical records of a tertiary psychiatric hospital in Beijing from 2016 to 2021. The influencing factors were firstly explored by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regressions. The propensity score matching was used to reduce the selection bias of participants. Then, the Bayesian networks (BNs) with hill-climbing algorithm and maximum likelihood estimation were preformed to explore the relationships between influencing factors with MetS in MDD patients. RESULTS: Totally, 4126 eligible subjects were included in the data analysis. The proportion rate of MetS was 32.6 % (95 % CI: 31.2 %-34.1 %). The multivariate logistic regression suggested that recurrent depression, uric acid, duration of depression, marriage, education, number of hospitalizations were significantly associated with MetS. In the BNs, number of hospitalizations and uric acid were directly connected with MetS. Recurrent depression and family history psychiatric diseases were indirectly connected with MetS. The conditional probability of MetS in MDD patients with family history of psychiatric diseases, recurrent depression and two or more times of hospitalizations was 37.6 %. CONCLUSION: Using the BNs, we found that number of hospitalizations, recurrent depression and family history of psychiatric diseases contributed to the probability of MetS, which could help to make health strategies for specific MDD patients.

Bayesian Networks for Prescreening in Depression: Algorithm Development and Validation.

BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals with depressive symptomatology (DS) promptly and effectively is of paramount importance for providing timely treatment. Machine learning models have shown promise in this area; however, studies often fall short in demonstrating the practical benefits of using these models and fail to provide tangible real-world applications. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to establish a novel methodology for identifying individuals likely to exhibit DS, identify the most influential features in a more explainable way via probabilistic measures, and propose tools that can be used in real-world applications. METHODS: The study used 3 data sets: PROACTIVE, the Brazilian National Health Survey (Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde [PNS]) 2013, and PNS 2019, comprising sociodemographic and health-related features. A Bayesian network was used for feature selection. Selected features were then used to train machine learning models to predict DS, operationalized as a score of ≥10 on the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire. The study also analyzed the impact of varying sensitivity rates on the reduction of screening interviews compared to a random approach. RESULTS: The methodology allows the users to make an informed trade-off among sensitivity, specificity, and a reduction in the number of interviews. At the thresholds of 0.444, 0.412, and 0.472, determined by maximizing the Youden index, the models achieved sensitivities of 0.717, 0.741, and 0.718, and specificities of 0.644, 0.737, and 0.766 for PROACTIVE, PNS 2013, and PNS 2019, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.736, 0.801, and 0.809 for these 3 data sets, respectively. For the PROACTIVE data set, the most influential features identified were postural balance, shortness of breath, and how old people feel they are. In the PNS 2013 data set, the features were the ability to do usual activities, chest pain, sleep problems, and chronic back problems. The PNS 2019 data set shared 3 of the most influential features with the PNS 2013 data set. However, the difference was the replacement of chronic back problems with verbal abuse. It is important to note that the features contained in the PNS data sets differ from those found in the PROACTIVE data set. An empirical analysis demonstrated that using the proposed model led to a potential reduction in screening interviews of up to 52% while maintaining a sensitivity of 0.80. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed a novel methodology for identifying individuals with DS, demonstrating the utility of using Bayesian networks to identify the most significant features. Moreover, this approach has the potential to substantially reduce the number of screening interviews while maintaining high sensitivity, thereby facilitating improved early identification and intervention strategies for individuals experiencing DS.

Efficacy and safety of first-line regimens for advanced HER2-positive breast cancer: A Bayesian network meta-analysis.

Background: The current standard of care for advanced human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer is pertuzumab plus trastuzumab and docetaxel as first-line therapy. However, with the development of newer treatment regimens, there is a lack of evidence regarding which is the optimal treatment strategy. The aim of this network meta-analysis was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of first-line regimens for advanced HER2-positive breast cancer by indirect comparisons. Methods: A systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis were conducted. The PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases were searched for relevant articles published through to December 2023. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% credible interval (CrI) were used to compare progression-free survival (PFS) between treatments, and the odds ratio and 95% CrI were used to compare the objective response rate (ORR) and safety. Results: Twenty randomized clinical trials that included 15 regimens and 7094 patients were analyzed. Compared with the traditional trastuzumab and docetaxel regimen, PFS was longer on the pyrotinib and trastuzumab plus docetaxel regimen (HR: 0.41, 95% CrI: 0.22-0.75) and the pertuzumab and trastuzumab plus docetaxel regimen (HR: 0.65, 95% CrI: 0.43-0.98). Consistent with the results for PFS, the ORR was better on the pyrotinib and trastuzumab plus docetaxel regimen and the pertuzumab and trastuzumab plus docetaxel regimen than on the traditional trastuzumab and docetaxel regimen. The surface under the cumulative ranking curve indicated that the pyrotinib and trastuzumab plus docetaxel regimen was most likely to rank first in achieving the best PFS and ORR. Comparable results were found for grade ≥3 AE rates of ≥10%. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the pyrotinib and trastuzumab plus docetaxel regimen is most likely to be the optimal first-line therapy for patients with HER2-positive breast cancer.

Estimating and displaying population attributable fractions using the R package: graphPAF.

Here we introduce graphPAF, a comprehensive R package designed for estimation, inference and display of population attributable fractions (PAF) and impact fractions. In addition to allowing inference for standard population attributable fractions and impact fractions, graphPAF facilitates display of attributable fractions over multiple risk factors using fan-plots and nomograms, calculations of attributable fractions for continuous exposures, inference for attributable fractions appropriate for specific risk factor → mediator → outcome pathways (pathway-specific attributable fractions) and Bayesian network-based calculations and inference for joint, sequential and average population attributable fractions in multi-risk factor scenarios. This article can be used as both a guide to the theory of attributable fraction estimation and a tutorial regarding how to use graphPAF in practical examples.

Optimal dosage ranges of various exercise types for enhancing timed up and go performance in Parkinson's disease patients: a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis.

Objective: To examine the dose-response relationship between specific types of exercise for alleviating Timed up and Go (TUG) in Parkinson's disease PD. Design: Systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis. Data sources: PubMed, Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were searched from inception until February 5th, 2024. Study analysis: Data analysis was conducted using R software with the MBNMA package. Effect sizes of outcome indicators were expressed as mean deviation (MD) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CrI). The risk of bias in the network was evaluated independently by two reviewers using ROB2. Results: A total of 73 studies involving 3,354 PD patients. The text discusses dose-response relationships in improving TUG performance among PD patients across various exercise types. Notably, Aquatic (AQE), Mix Exercise (Mul_C), Sensory Exercise (SE), and Resistance Training (RT) demonstrate effective dose ranges, with AQE optimal at 1500 METs-min/week (MD: -8.359, 95% CI: -1.398 to -2.648), Mul_C at 1000 METs-min/week (MD: -4.551, 95% CI: -8.083 to -0.946), SE at 1200 METs-min/week (MD: -5.145, 95% CI: -9.643 to -0.472), and RT at 610 METs-min/week (MD: -2.187, 95% CI: -3.161 to -1.278), respectively. However, no effective doses are found for Aerobic Exercise (AE), Balance Gait Training (BGT), Dance, and Treadmill Training (TT). Mind-body exercise (MBE) shows promise with an effective range of 130 to 750 METs-min/week and an optimal dose of 750 METs-min/week (MD: -2.822, 95% CI: -4.604 to -0.996). According to the GRADE system, the included studies' overall quality of the evidence was identified moderate level. Conclusion: This study identifies specific exercise modalities and dosages that significantly enhance TUG performance in PD patients. AQE emerges as the most effective modality, with an optimal dosage of 1,500 METs-min/week. MBE shows significant benefits at lower dosages, catering to patients with varying exercise capacities. RT exhibits a nuanced "U-shaped" dose-response relationship, suggesting an optimal range balancing efficacy and the risk of overtraining. These findings advocate for tailored exercise programs in PD management, emphasizing personalized prescriptions to maximize outcomes.Systematic Review Registration: International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) (CRD42024506968).

Causal analysis of radiotherapy safety incidents based on a hybrid model of HFACS and Bayesian network.

Objective: This research investigates the role of human factors of all hierarchical levels in radiotherapy safety incidents and examines their interconnections. Methods: Utilizing the human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS) and Bayesian network (BN) methodologies, we created a BN-HFACS model to comprehensively analyze human factors, integrating the hierarchical structure. We examined 81 radiotherapy incidents from the radiation oncology incident learning system (RO-ILS), conducting a qualitative analysis using HFACS. Subsequently, parametric learning was applied to the derived data, and the prior probabilities of human factors were calculated at each BN-HFACS model level. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the human factors with the greatest influence on unsafe acts. Results: The majority of safety incidents reported on RO-ILS were traced back to the treatment planning phase, with skill errors and habitual violations being the primary unsafe acts causing these incidents. The sensitivity analysis highlighted that the condition of the operators, personnel factors, and environmental factors significantly influenced the occurrence of incidents. Additionally, it underscored the importance of organizational climate and organizational process in triggering unsafe acts. Conclusion: Our findings suggest a strong association between upper-level human factors and unsafe acts among radiotherapy incidents in RO-ILS. To enhance radiation therapy safety and reduce incidents, interventions targeting these key factors are recommended.

A framework for identifying factors controlling cyanobacterium Microcystis flos-aquae blooms by coupled CCM-ECCM Bayesian networks.

Cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater sources are a global concern, and gaining insight into their causes is crucial for effective resource management and control. In this study, we present a novel computational framework for the causal analysis of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) in Lake Kinneret. Our framework integrates Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) and Extended CCM (ECCM) causal networks with Bayesian Network (BN) models. The constructed CCM-ECCM causal networks and BN models unveil significant interactions among factors influencing cyanoHAB formation. These interactions have been validated by domain experts and supported by evidence from peer-reviewed publications. Our findings suggest that Microcystis flos-aquae levels are influenced not only by community structure but also by ammonium, phosphate, oxygen, and temperature levels in the weeks preceding bloom occurrences. We demonstrated a non-parametric computational framework for causal analysis of a multivariate ecosystem. Our framework offers a more comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms driving M. flos-aquae blooms in Lake Kinneret. It captures complex interactions and provides an explainable prediction model. By considering causal relationships, temporal dynamics, and joint probabilities of environmental factors, the proposed framework enhances our understanding of cyanoHABs in Lake Kinneret.

Interspecific interaction network of mites associated with mango trees.

Direct and indirect ecological interactions, environmental factors, and the phenology of host plants can shape the way mites interact. These relationships interfere with species occurrence and consequently alter the structure and stability of the intraplant community. As predatory mites act as regulators of herbivorous mites, we hypothesized that these mites may occupy a central position in a network of interactions among mite species associated with mango trees, and the occurrence of these species is mediated by environmental variables and the phenological stage of the host plant. We evaluated the global structure of the interaction network of mites associated with individual Mangifera indica plants and analyzed the interspecific relationships of the species using an undirected Bayesian network approach. Additionally, we observed a correlation between mite population density and plant phenological stage. Environmental variables, such as average monthly temperature, monthly precipitation, and average monthly relative humidity at different sampling date were used in the correlation analysis. The modularity at the mite-plant network level showed a low specialization index H2 = 0.073 (generalist) and high robustness (R = 0.93). Network analysis revealed that Amblyseius largoensis, Bdella ueckermanni, Parapronematus acaciae, and Tuckerella ornata occupied central positions in the assembly of mites occurring on mango trees. Environmental variables, average monthly temperature, and monthly precipitation were correlated with the occurrence of Brachytydeus formosa, Cisaberoptus kenyae, Oligonychus punicae, T. ornata, and Vilaia pamithus. We also observed a correlation between the plant phenological stage and population densities of Neoseiulus houstoni, O. punicae, P. acaciae, and V. pamithus.

Evaluation of best management practices for mitigating harmful algal blooms risk in an agricultural lake basin using a watershed model integrated with Bayesian Network approach.

Lake eutrophication caused by nitrogen and phosphorus has led to frequent harmful algal blooms (HABs), especially under the unknown challenges of climate change, which have seriously damaged human life and property. In this study, a coupled SWAT-Bayesian Network (SWAT-BN) model framework was constructed to elucidate the mechanisms between non-point source nitrogen pollution in agricultural lake watersheds and algal activities. A typical agricultural shallow lake basin, the Taihu Basin (TB), China, was chosen in this study, aiming to investigate the effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs) in controlling HABs risks in TB. By modeling total nitrogen concentration of Taihu Lake from 2007 to 2022 with four BMPs (filter strips, grassed waterway, fertilizer application reduction and no-till agriculture), the results indicated that fertilizer application reduction proved to be the most effective BMP with 0.130 of Harmful Algal Blooms Probability Reduction (HABs-PR) when reducing 40% of fertilizer, followed by filter strips with 0.01 of HABs-PR when 4815ha of filter strips were conducted, while grassed waterway and no-till agriculture showed no significant effect on preventing HABs. Furthermore, the combined practice between 40% fertilizer application reduction and 4815ha filter strips construction showed synergistic effects with HABs-PR increasing to 0.171. Precipitation and temperature data were distorted to model scenarios of extreme events. As a result, the combined approach outperformed any single BMP in terms of robustness under extreme climates. This research provides a watershed-level perspective on HABs risks mitigation and highlights the strategies to address HABs under the influence of climate change.

Rainstorm-induced flood risk assessment in developed urban area using a data-driven approach with watershed units.

Rainstorm flooding in developed urban areas has become a global focus. This study proposes a data-driven approach to urban rainstorm flood risk assessment. In contrast to the existing research, this study focuses on terrain watersheds as an assessment unit. Using Changsha as the study area, an inventory of 238 historical rainstorm flood locations was produced using automatic web crawling and literature data mining. Subsequently, an assessment model was developed based on a Bayesian algorithm and 16 influencing factors, and its accuracy was verified using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Because underground infrastructure is prone to backflow at its entrances and exits during rainstorms, the developed model was used to assess the backflow risk of two typical underground structures subjected to three rainstorm return periods: 5 (scenario 1), 10 (scenario 2), and 100 years (scenario 3). The conclusions are as follows: (1) The proposed method has a prediction accuracy of 88 % for flood risk. The most influential factors were H11 (proportion of impervious surface), H4 (mean elevation), and H1 (rainfall), contributing 52 %, 14.3 %, and 11.9 %, respectively. (2) Watersheds are classified into "Very Low," "Low," "High," and "Very High" based on the degree of flooding impact, accounting for 83.6 %, 11.9 %, 3.9 %, and 0.7 %, respectively. Watersheds classified as "Very High" are mainly distributed in the central region. (3) A total of 48 subway stations (7.9 % of the total) and 148 underground parking lots (6.5 % of the total) in the study area are located in "Very High" risk areas. (4) Compared to that in scenario 1, the proportion of underground entrances and exits with a "Very high" protection level in scenario 3 increased by approximately 10 %. In conclusion, this framework can assist urban planners in understanding the risks of urban flooding and mitigating potential flooding impacts.

A Prediction Model for Identifying Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Uptake Among Children in Wuxi, China: Prospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Predicting vaccination behaviors accurately could provide insights for health care professionals to develop targeted interventions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop predictive models for influenza vaccination behavior among children in China. METHODS: We obtained data from a prospective observational study in Wuxi, eastern China. The predicted outcome was individual-level vaccine uptake and covariates included sociodemographics of the child and parent, parental vaccine hesitancy, perceptions of convenience to the clinic, satisfaction with clinic services, and willingness to vaccinate. Bayesian networks, logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), and decision tree classifiers were used to construct prediction models. Various performance metrics, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the different models. Receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration plots were used to assess model performance. RESULTS: A total of 2383 participants were included in the study; 83.2% of these children (n=1982) were <5 years old and 6.6% (n=158) had previously received an influenza vaccine. More than half (1356/2383, 56.9%) the parents indicated a willingness to vaccinate their child against influenza. Among the 2383 children, 26.3% (n=627) received influenza vaccination during the 2020-2021 season. Within the training set, the RF model showed the best performance across all metrics. In the validation set, the logistic regression model and NB model had the highest AUC values; the SVM model had the highest precision; the NB model had the highest recall; and the logistic regression model had the highest accuracy, F1 score, and Cohen κ value. The LASSO and logistic regression models were well-calibrated. CONCLUSIONS: The developed prediction model can be used to quantify the uptake of seasonal influenza vaccination for children in China. The stepwise logistic regression model may be better suited for prediction purposes.

Federated Bayesian network approach for cross-regional air pollution classification: a case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Although machine learning methods have enabled considerable progress in air quality assessment, challenges persist regarding data privacy, cross-regional data processing, and model generalization. To address these issues, we introduce an advanced federated Bayesian network (FBN) approach. By integrating federated learning, adaptive optimization algorithms, and homomorphic encryption technologies, we substantially enhanced the efficiency and security of cross-regional air quality data processing. The novelty of this research lies in the improvements implemented in federated learning for air quality data analysis, particularly in distributed model training optimization and data consistency. Through the integration of adaptive structural modification strategies and simulated annealing immune optimization algorithms, we markedly enhanced the structural learning accuracy of the Bayesian network, resulting in a 20% improvement in prediction accuracy. Moreover, employing homomorphic encryption ensured data transmission security and confidentiality. In our Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei case study, our method demonstrated a 15% improvement in air quality classification accuracy compared to conventional methods and exhibited superior interpretability in analyzing environmental factor interactions. We quantified complex air pollution patterns across regions and found that a 30% fluctuation in the air quality index correlated with NO2 concentrations. We also observed a moderate positive correlation between specific pollutant indicators in Hebei Province and Tianjin and changes in air quality. Additionally, the FBN exhibited better operational efficiency and data confidentiality than other machine learning models in handling large-scale and multisource environmental data. Our FBN approach presents a novel perspective for environmental monitoring and assessment, vital for understanding complex air pollution patterns and formulating future ecological protection policies.

NaTech triggered by lightning: Novel insights from past events in the process industry.

Lightning strikes, a prominent meteorological event, pose a significant risk of triggering technological disruptions within the process industry. To better understand this phenomenon, an analysis focused on past lightning-triggered events was carried out, examining open-source industrial-accident databases to compile a new NaTech-driven dataset of 689 records. First, an overall quantitative analysis revealed that over 80 % of these events involved incidents or loss of containment. Notably, 83.3 % of them occurred during the spring and summer, indicating a seasonal pattern. Based on the frequency of functional attributes, the chemical and petrochemical macro-sector was the most vulnerable, followed by storage and warehousing. About 40 % of all classifiable events happened on storage equipment, while 21 % happened on electric and electronic devices. Given the lack of valuable information for the principal source of data (NRC), the technological scenarios triggered were characterized using a refined subset of 127 observations, obtained considering the "other sources" of data. Fire scenarios predominated at 56 %; coincidentally, roughly 70 % of all scenarios involved hazardous substances classified as physical hazards. Estimated losses for the available information underscored the adverse consequences of lightning-triggered NaTech events, highlighting their major impact on both safety and the environment. An analysis of the event tree showed the logical path from the lightning strike to the final ignition scenarios (considering a subset of 107 records). This path accounted for 36 % of the classifiable records that directly affected the structure, while more than 50 % of them did not. Bayesian network structures made it possible to get conditional probabilities from the event tree and improved the model by adding attributes for vulnerable equipment and macro-sectors. In order to deal with the uncertain data, algorithms were used to generalize the models that were obtained from smaller subsets of data with more accurate information to the whole dataset. It provides an important additional view of unclassifiable data that otherwise remained in the dark. This novel insight contributes to increase the vulnerability awareness of industrial assets against lightning strikes.

A Bayesian network for simultaneous keyframe and landmark detection in ultrasonic cine.

Accurate landmark detection in medical imaging is essential for quantifying various anatomical structures and assisting in diagnosis and treatment planning. In ultrasound cine, landmark detection is often associated with identifying keyframes, which represent the occurrence of specific events, such as measuring target dimensions at specific temporal phases. Existing methods predominantly treat landmark and keyframe detection as separate tasks without harnessing their underlying correlations. Additionally, owing to the intrinsic characteristics of ultrasound imaging, both tasks are constrained by inter-observer variability, leading to potentially higher levels of uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian network to achieve simultaneous keyframe and landmark detection in ultrasonic cine, especially under highly sparse training data conditions. We follow a coarse-to-fine landmark detection architecture and propose an adaptive Bayesian hypergraph for coordinate refinement on the results of heatmap-based regression. In addition, we propose Order Loss for training bi-directional Gated Recurrent Unit to identify keyframes based on the relative likelihoods within the sequence. Furthermore, to exploit the underlying correlation between the two tasks, we use a shared encoder to extract features for both tasks and enhance the detection accuracy through the interaction of temporal and motion information. Experiments on two in-house datasets (multi-view transesophageal and transthoracic echocardiography) and one public dataset (transthoracic echocardiography) demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches. The mean absolute errors for dimension measurements of the left atrial appendage, aortic annulus, and left ventricle are 2.40 mm, 0.83 mm, and 1.63 mm, respectively. The source code is available at github.com/warmestwind/ABHG.

External validation of the 2-year mortality prediction tool in hemodialysis patients developed using a Bayesian network.

Background: In recent years, a number of predictive models have appeared to predict the risk of medium-term mortality in hemodialysis patients, but only one, limited to patients aged over 70 years, has undergone sufficiently powerful external validation. Recently, using a national learning database and an innovative approach based on Bayesian networks and 14 carefully selected predictors, we have developed a clinical prediction tool to predict all-cause mortality at 2 years in all incident hemodialysis patients. In order to generalize the results of this tool and propose its use in routine clinical practice, we carried out an external validation using an independent external validation database. Methods: A regional, multicenter, observational, retrospective cohort study was conducted to externally validate the tool for predicting 2-year all-cause mortality in incident and prevalent hemodialysis patients. This study recruited a total of 142 incident and 697 prevalent adult hemodialysis patients followed up in one of the eight Association pour l'Utilisation du Rein Artificiel dans la région Lyonnaise (AURAL) Alsace dialysis centers. Results: In incident patients, the 2-year all-cause mortality prediction tool had an area under the receiver curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.73, an accuracy of 65%, a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 63%. In prevalent patients, the performance for the external validation were similar in terms of AUC-ROC, accuracy and specificity, but was lower in term of sensitivity. Conclusion: The tool for predicting all-cause mortality at 2 years, developed using a Bayesian network and 14 routinely available explanatory variables, obtained satisfactory external validation in incident patients, but sensitivity was insufficient in prevalent patients.

Causal inference approaches reveal both positive and negative unintended effects of agricultural and urban management practices on instream biological condition.

Agricultural and urban management practices (MPs) are primarily designed and implemented to reduce nutrient and sediment concentrations in streams. However, there is growing interest in determining if MPs produce any unintended positive effects, or co-benefits, to instream biological and habitat conditions. Identifying co-benefits is challenging though because of confounding variables (i.e., those that affect both where MPs are applied and stream biota), which can be accounted for in novel causal inference approaches. Here, we used two causal inference approaches, propensity score matching (PSM) and Bayesian network learning (BNL), to identify potential MP co-benefits in the Chesapeake Bay watershed portion of Maryland, USA. Specifically, we examined how MPs may modify instream conditions that impact fish and macroinvertebrate indices of biotic integrity (IBI) and functional and taxonomic endpoints. We found evidence of positive unintended effects of MPs for both benthic macroinvertebrates and fish indicated by higher IBI scores and specific endpoints like the number of scraper macroinvertebrate taxa and lithophilic spawning fish taxa in a subset of regions. However, our results also suggest MPs have negative unintended effects, especially on sensitive benthic macroinvertebrate taxa and key instream habitat and water quality metrics like specific conductivity. Overall, our results suggest MPs offer co-benefits in some regions and catchments with largely degraded conditions but can have negative unintended effects in some regions, especially in catchments with good biological conditions. We suggest the number and types of MPs drove these mixed results and highlight carefully designed MP implementation that incorporates instream biological data at the catchment scale could facilitate co-benefits to instream biological conditions. Our study underscores the need for more research on identifying effects of individual MP types on instream biological and habitat conditions.

Bayesian network models identify cooperative GPCR:G protein interactions that contribute to G protein coupling.

Cooperative interactions in protein-protein interfaces demonstrate the interdependency or the linked network-like behavior and their effect on the coupling of proteins. Cooperative interactions also could cause ripple or allosteric effects at a distance in protein-protein interfaces. Although they are critically important in protein-protein interfaces, it is challenging to determine which amino acid pair interactions are cooperative. In this work, we have used Bayesian network modeling, an interpretable machine learning method, combined with molecular dynamics trajectories to identify the residue pairs that show high cooperativity and their allosteric effect in the interface of G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) complexes with Gα subunits. Our results reveal six GPCR:Gα contacts that are common to the different Gα subtypes and show strong cooperativity in the formation of interface. Both the C terminus helix5 and the core of the G protein are codependent entities and play an important role in GPCR coupling. We show that a promiscuous GPCR coupling to different Gα subtypes, makes all the GPCR:Gα contacts that are specific to each Gα subtype (Gαs, Gαi, and Gαq). This work underscores the potential of data-driven Bayesian network modeling in elucidating the intricate dependencies and selectivity determinants in GPCR:G protein complexes, offering valuable insights into the dynamic nature of these essential cellular signaling components.

[Neural network analysis of mechanization's impact on coal miner's occupational health].

In order to clarify the transmission mechanism of the impact of mechanization on the occupational health of miners and to provide empirical evidence for the development of new quality productivity in the coal industry that balances health and efficiency. In August 2022, we selected a typical coal mine, constructed a comprehensive evaluation index of miners' occupational health through a questionnaire survey based on the fully connected neural network model. A Bayesian model was used to verify the influence of mechanization level on miners' occupational health. We found that: the predicted probability of occupational diseases could be used as a comprehensive indicator of the level of occupational health, providing a basis for early intervention and prevention of occupational diseases. Mechanization could directly promote the improvement of miners' occupational health level, and also indirectly affect occupational health level by influencing hazards level and work intensity. The indirect effect of mechanization on work intensity was positive, and the indirect effect of mechanization on hazards level was positive. Presented the "inverted U-shaped" process in the mechanization breakthrough semi-mechanized level would realize the economies of scale of health protection, its impact on the prevention and control of occupational hazards would turn from negative to positive.

Efficacy and safety study of targeted small-molecule drugs in the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus.

BACKGROUND: Targeted small-molecule drugs in the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have attracted increasing attention from clinical investigators. However, there is still a lack of evidence on the difference in the efficacy and safety of different targeted small-molecule drugs. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the efficacy and safety of different targeted small-molecule drugs for SLE. METHODS: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on targeted small-molecule drugs in the treatment of SLE in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Library were systematically searched as of April 25, 2023. Risk of bias assessment was performed for included studies using the Cochrane's tool for evaluating the risk of bias. The primary outcome indicators were SRI-4 response, BICLA response, and adverse reaction. Because different doses and courses of treatment were used in the included studies, Bayesian network meta-regression was used to investigate the effect of different doses and courses of treatment on efficacy and safety. RESULTS: A total of 13 studies were included, involving 3,622 patients and 9 targeted small-molecule drugs. The results of network meta-analysis showed that, in terms of improving SRI-4, Deucravacitinib was significantly superior to that of Baricitinib (RR = 1.32, 95% CI (1.04, 1.68), P < 0.05). Deucravacitinib significantly outperformed the placebo in improving BICLA response (RR = 1.55, 95% CI (1.20, 2.02), P < 0.05). In terms of adverse reactions, targeted small-molecule drugs did not significantly increase the risk of adverse events as compared to placebo (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Based on the evidence obtained in this study, the differences in the efficacy of targeted small-molecule drugs were statistically significant as compared to placebo, but the difference in the safety was not statistically significant. The dose and the course of treatment had little impact on the effect of targeted small-molecule drugs. Deucravacitinib could significantly improve BICLA response and SRI-4 response without significantly increasing the risk of AEs. Therefore, Deucravacitinib is very likely to be the best intervention measure. Due to the small number of included studies, more high-quality clinical evidence is needed to further verify the efficacy and safety of targeted small-molecule drugs for SLE.