ABSTRACT
Most of the research on Bayesian reasoning aims to answer theoretical questions about the extent to which people are able to update their beliefs according to Bayes' Theorem, about the evolutionary nature of Bayesian inference, or about the role of cognitive abilities in Bayesian inference. Few studies aim to answer practical, mainly health-related questions, such as, "What does it mean to have a positive test in a context of cancer screening?" or "What is the best way to communicate a medical test result so a patient will understand it?". This type of research aims to translate empirical findings into effective ways of providing risk information. In addition, the applied research often adopts the paradigms and methods of the theoretically-motivated research. But sometimes it works the other way around, and the theoretical research borrows the importance of the practical question in the medical context. The study of Bayesian reasoning is relevant to risk communication in that, to be as useful as possible, applied research should employ specifically tailored methods and contexts specific to the recipients of the risk information. In this paper, we concentrate on the communication of the result of medical tests and outline the epidemiological and test parameters that affect the predictive power of a test-whether it is correct or not. Building on this, we draw up recommendations for better practice to convey the results of medical tests that could inform health policy makers (What are the drawbacks of mass screenings?), be used by health practitioners and, in turn, help patients to make better and more informed decisions.
ABSTRACT
El diagnóstico es el proceso de síntesis con que los médicos expresamos la conclusión de un elaborado proceso intelectual de análisis de datos subjetivos y objetivos (la anamnesis, el examen físico y las pruebas de laboratorio). Nosotros revisamos las tres estrategias de razonamiento clínico enfatizando en el razonamiento bayesiano, útil para la interpretación de las pruebas diagnósticas.
Diagnosis procedure is the synthesis by which physicians conclude and elaborate analysis of subjective and objective data, obtained by physical exam and technology. We revised the three reasoning strategies in the clinical reasoning: probabilistic, causal and deterministic for understanding of clinical cognition and enhance patient care. We emphasized in the Bayesian reasoning especially in the format natural frequencies.