ABSTRACT
Understanding individual growth in commercially exploited fish populations is key to successful stock assessment and informed ecosystem-based fisheries management. Traditionally, growth rates in marine fish are estimated using otolith age-readings in combination with age-length relationships from field samples, or tag-recapture field experiments. However, for some species, otolith-based approaches have been proven unreliable and tag-recapture experiments suffer from high working effort and costs as well as low recapture rates. An important alternative approach for estimating fish growth is represented by bioenergetic modelling which in addition to pure growth estimation can provide valuable insights into the processes leading to temporal growth changes resulting from environmental and related behavioural changes. We here developed an individual-based bioenergetic model for Western Baltic cod (Gadus morhua), traditionally a commercially important fish species that however collapsed recently and likely suffers from climate change effects. Western Baltic cod is an ideal case study for bioenergetic modelling because of recently gained in-situ process knowledge on spatial distribution and feeding behaviour based on highly resolved data on stomachs and fish distribution. Additionally, physiological processes such as gastric evacuation, consumption, net-conversion efficiency and metabolic rates have been well studied for cod in laboratory experiments. Our model reliably reproduced seasonal growth patterns observed in the field. Importantly, our bioenergetic modelling approach implementing depth-use patterns and food intake allowed us to explain the potentially detrimental effect summer heat periods have on the growth of Western Baltic cod that likely will increasingly occur in the future. Hence, our model simulations highlighted a potential mechanism on how warming due to climate change affects the growth of a key species that may apply for similar environments elsewhere.
ABSTRACT
Introducción: Las colonias de aves zancudas alcanzan miles de nidos densamente agrupados, que influyen marcadamente sobre las características del suelo o el agua que las rodea por un efecto de hiperfertilización. Esto provoca la acumulación nociva de compuestos nitrogenados, alterando la química del sustrato y produciendo defoliación y muerte de la vegetación. El impacto de estas colonias en los manglares de Cuba no se ha evaluado, por las dificultades logísticas que implica y la complejidad de sus procesos. Objetivo: En el presente trabajo se realizó la estimación de las cantidades de biomasa, energía y nutrientes movilizados en una colonia de Bubulcus ibis, durante una etapa de cría, a través de un modelo bioenergético de dinámica de sistemas. Métodos: Se emplearon 29 variables primarias, 3 ecuaciones bioenergéticas y la ecuación de crecimiento postnatal de esta especie, implementadas en el programa STELLA 9.1.3. De la interacción de estas variables se obtuvieron: la energía requerida por ciclo de reproducción, la biomasa consumida y los nutrientes depositados en la colonia. Se realizó un análisis de sensibilidad y un análisis de incertidumbre para explorar las variables que más influencia tienen sobre los resultados. El modelo fue validado mediante la consistencia en las unidades, la prueba de valores extremos y la comparación con valores registrados en la literatura. Finalmente, se simularon escenarios de disturbios que pueden afectar a una colonia real. Resultados: Según el modelo, para el crecimiento cada pichón requiere de 10 219.2 kcal totales. La colonia debe invertir en total 6.71x106 kcal, lo que representa un consumo cercano a 2.2 toneladas de presas en una etapa de cría. Debido a este consumo, los nutrientes depositados en la colonia mediante las excretas estuvieron compuestos de 49 kg de nitrógeno, 7 kg de fósforo y 56 kg de calcio. Según el análisis de sensibilidad, las variables que producen cambios más fuertes en el resultado son el número de adultos de la colonia y el tamaño medio de puesta. El análisis de incertidumbre mostró poca influencia de las variables seleccionadas sobre las variables respuesta. Los disturbios simulados más dañinos para la colonia fueron las afectaciones al reclutamiento y el aumento de la mortalidad de los pichones.
Introduction: The colonies of wading birds reach thousands of highly grouped nests, which have a marked influence on the characteristics of the soil or the water that surrounds them due to a hyperfertilization effect. This causes the harmful accumulation of nitrogen compounds altering the chemistry of the substrate and causing defoliation and death of vegetation. The impact of these colonies on the mangroves in Cuba has not been evaluated, due to the logistical difficulties involved and the complexity of their processes. Objective: Mathematical modeling is a useful tool in these situations, so in this work the estimation of the quantities of biomass, energy and nutrients mobilized in a colony of herons was carried out, through a bioenergetic model of system dynamics. Methods: We used 29 primary variables, 3 bioenergetic equations and the postnatal growth equation of this species, implemented in the STELLA 9.1.3 program. From the interaction of these variables, the energy required by the reproduction cycle, the biomass consumed and the nutrients deposited in the colony were obtained. A sensitivity analysis and an uncertainty analysis were carried out to explore the variables that have the most influence on the results. The model was validated by the consistency in the units, the test of extreme values and the comparison with values recorded in the literature. Finally, disturbances scenarios that can affect a real colony were simulated. Results: According to the model, each nestling require 10 219.2 kcal to growth. The colony must totally invest 6.71x106 kcal, which represents consumption close to 2.2 tons of dams. Due to this consumption, the nutrients deposited in the colony by the excreta were 49 kg of nitrogen, 7 kg of phosphorus and 56 kg of calcium. According to the sensitivity analysis, the variables that produce the strongest changes in the result are the number of adults in the colony and the average clutch size. The uncertainty analysis showed little influence of the variables selected on the response variables. The most harmful simulated disturbances for the colony were the affectations to the recruitment and the increase of the mortality of the nestlings.
ABSTRACT
Many ecologists have called for mechanism-based investigations to identify the underlying controls on species distributions. Understanding these controls can be especially useful to construct robust predictions of how a species range may change in response to climate change or the extent to which a non-native species may spread in novel environments. Here, we link spatially intensive observations with mechanistic models to illustrate how physiology determines the upstream extent of the aquatic ectotherm smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) in two headwater rivers. Our results demonstrate that as temperatures become increasingly cold across a downstream to upstream gradient, food consumption in age 0 bass becomes increasingly constrained, and as a result, these fish become growth limited. Sufficient first summer growth of age 0 bass is essential for overwinter survival because young bass must persist from energy reserves accumulated during the summer, and those reserves are determined by body size. Our field data reveal the upstream extent of adult bass reproduction corresponds to a point in the downstream/upstream gradient where cold temperatures impair growth opportunities in young bass. This pattern was repeated in both study streams and explained why bass positioned nests twice as far upstream in the warm compared to the cold stream in the same basin. Placement of spawning nests by adult bass is likely subject to strong evolutionary selection in temperate systems: if bass spawn too far upstream, their young are unlikely to grow large enough to survive the winter. Consumption and growth in older bass (age 3-4) was far less sensitive to temperature. Based on these data, we suggest that temperature-sensitive age 0 bass constrain the upstream distribution limits of bass within temperate streams. In this study, we investigated how temperature-dependent physiology changed through the life history of a species and, in doing so, identified a climate-sensitive life-history stage that likely sets the distributional limits of all other life-history stages. We anticipate the framework developed here could be employed to identify how similar stage-specific environmental sensitivity determines distribution in many other ectothermic species.
