More than 30 Years of POSSUM: Are Scoring Systems Still Relevant Today for Colorectal Surgery?

BACKGROUND: The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) weights the patient's individual health status and the extent of the surgical procedure to estimate the probability of postoperative complications and death of general surgery patients. The variations Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) and colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM) were developed for estimating mortality in patients with low perioperative risk and for patients with colorectal carcinoma, respectively. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the significance of POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM in two independent colorectal cancer cohorts undergoing surgery, with an emphasis on laparoscopic procedures. METHODS: For each patient, an individual physiological score (PS) and operative severity score (OS) was attributed to calculate the predicted morbidity and mortality, respectively. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the possible correlation between the subscores and the probability of postoperative complications and mortality. RESULTS: The POSSUM equation significantly overpredicted postoperative morbidity, and all three scoring systems considerably overpredicted in-hospital mortality. However, the POSSUM score identified patients at risk of anastomotic leakage, sepsis, and the need for reoperation. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated a strong correlation between the subscores and the probability of postoperative complications and mortality, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the three scoring systems are too imprecise for the estimation of perioperative complications and mortality of patients undergoing colorectal surgery in the present day. Since the subscores proved valid, a revision of the scoring systems could increase their reliability in the clinical setting.

Emergency Surgery for Colon Diseases in Elderly Patients-Analysis of Complications, and Postoperative Course.

Background and Objectives: Colon diseases can turn in a clinical emergency with the onset of some important complications. Some critical conditions are more common in aged patients because they are frailer. The aim of this study is to examine patients over 80 years of age who are undergoing emergency colorectal surgery, and evaluating the aspects associated with post-operative complications and other problems in the short term. Methods: From November 2020 to February 2022, we included 32 consecutive patients older than 80 undergoing emergency surgery due to colon diseases. We collected and analysed all demographic and operative data, and then applied CR-POSSUM score and correlated this with postoperative hospital stay and the onset of postoperative complications according to the Clavien Dindo classification. Results: Postoperative factors were selectively evaluated based on the clinical scenario and different colic pathologies. There were no statistically significant differences, in terms of postoperative hospital stay, postoperative complications, reoperation rate and 30-day mortality. The number of cases of blood transfusions was significant and was more numerous in cases of intestinal perforation and bleeding cases. The value of the Operative Severity Score in bowel perforations was significantly higher. Conclusions: The use of a score to stratify the risk is a useful tool, especially in elderly patients undergoing emergency surgery. The CR-POSSUM score was important for predicting morbidity in our study. Emergency manifestations of colon diseases in the elderly show higher morbidity and mortality rates. The effect of age on outcome is a concept that needs to be emphasized, so further investigation is needed.

Exenteración pélvica para cáncer de recto localmente avanzado y recurrente: resultados a largo plazo y factores pronósticos.

OBJETIVO: El objetivo de este trabajo fue analizar los resultados perioperatorios y a largo plazo de los pacientes sometidos a exenteración pélvica para cáncer de recto en un centro de referencia en la Ciudad de México. MÉTODO: Se incluyeron todos los pacientes que se sometieron a exenteración pélvica por cáncer de recto entre 1995 y 2019. Se analizaron variables demográficas, clínicas, quirúrgicas y patológicas. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 18 pacientes operados por cáncer de recto (16 localmente avanzados y 2 recurrentes). La relación hombre: mujer fue de 1:3.5. La morbilidad mayor fue del 27.7%. El sangrado intraoperatorio ≥ 1000 ml se asoció con morbilidad (80 vs. 20%; p = 0,029) y mortalidad posoperatoria (100 vs. 0; p = 0.043). La mediana de sobrevida global fue 102 meses. Las sobrevidas global y libre de enfermedad a los 5 años fueron del 44.4% y el 38.8%, respectivamente. La invasión linfovascular fue un factor de mal pronóstico para sobrevida libre de enfermedad (p = 0.017). CONCLUSIONES: La exenteración pélvica para el cáncer de recto es un procedimiento quirúrgico con altas morbilidad y mortalidad. La invasión linfovascular es un factor de mal pronóstico para la sobrevida libre de enfermedad. INTRODUCTION: Pelvic exenteration is a radical treatment for locally advanced and recurrent pelvic tumors. The aim of this study was to analyze the perioperative and long-term outcomes of patients undergoing pelvic exenteration for rectal cancer at a referral center in Mexico City. METHOD: We included all patients who underwent pelvic exenteration due to rectal cancer between 1995 and 2019. Demographic, clinical, surgical and pathological variables were analyzed. RESULTS: 18 patients were included (16 locally advanced and 2 recurrent). The male-female ratio was 1:3.5. The highest morbidity was 27.7%. Intraoperative bleeding ≥ 1000 ml was associated with postoperative morbidity (80 vs. 20%; p = 0.029) and mortality (100 vs. 0; p = 0.043). The median overall survival was 102 months. Overall survival and disease free survival at 5 years after exenteration were 44.4% and 38.8%, respectively. Lymphovascular invasion of the tumor was a poor prognostic factor for disease free survival (p = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: Pelvic exenteration for rectal cancer is a surgical procedure with high morbidity and mortality. Lymphovascular invasion is a poor prognostic factor for disease-free survival.

CR-POSSUM and Surgical Apgar Score as predictive factors for patients' allocation after colorectal surgery / Escore CR-POSSUM e Índice de Apgar Cirúrgico como fatores preditivos para a alocação de pacientes após cirurgia colorretal

Abstract Background and objectives Surgical patients frequently require admission in high-dependency units or intensive care units. Resources are scarce and there are no universally accepted admission criteria, so patients' allocation must be optimized. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between postoperative destination of patients submitted to colorectal surgery and the scores ColoRectal Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (CR-POSSUM) and Surgical Apgar Score (SAS) and, secondarily find cut-offs to aid this allocation. Methods A cross-sectional prospective observational study, including all adult patients undergoing colorectal surgery during a 2 years period. Data collected from the electronic clinical process and anesthesia records. Results A total of 358 patients were included. Median score for SAS was 8 and CR-POSSUM had a median mortality probability of 4.5%. Immediate admission on high-dependency units/intensive care units occurred in 51 patients and late admission in 18. Scores from ward and high-dependency units/intensive care units patients were statistically different (SAS: 8 vs. 7, p < 0.001; CR-POSSUM: 4.4% vs. 15.9%, p < 0.001). Both scores were found to be predictors of immediate postoperative destination (p < 0.001). Concerning immediate high-dependency units/intensive care units admission, CR-POSSUM showed a strong association (AUC 0.78, p = 0.034) with a ≥9.16 cut-off point (sensitivity: 62.5%; specificity: 75.2%), outperforming SAS (AUC 0.67, p = 0.048), with a ≤7 cut-off point (sensitivity: 67.3%; specificity: 56.1%). Conclusions Both CR-POSSUM and SAS were associated with the clinical decision to admit a patient to the high-dependency units/intensive care units immediately after surgery. CR-POSSUM alone showed a better discriminative capacity.

Resumo Justificativa e objetivos Os pacientes cirúrgicos com frequência precisam de internação em unidade de alta dependência ou unidade de terapia intensiva. Os recursos são escassos e não há critérios de admissão universalmente aceitos; portanto, a alocação dos pacientes precisa ser aprimorada. O objetivo primário deste estudo foi investigar a relação entre o destino dos pacientes após cirurgia colorretal e o Índice de Apgar Cirúrgico (IAC) e o escore CR-POSSUM - do inglês ColoRectal Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity - e, secundariamente, descobrir pontos de corte para auxiliar essa alocação. Métodos Estudo prospectivo de observação transversal, incluiu todos os pacientes adultos submetidos à cirurgia colorretal durante um período de dois anos. Os dados foram coletados do prontuário clínico eletrônico e dos registros de anestesia. Resultados Foram incluídos 358 pacientes. A mediana para o IAC foi 8 e para a probabilidade de mortalidade no CR-POSSUM, 4,5%. A admissão imediata em unidade de alta dependência/unidade de terapia intensiva ocorreu em 51 pacientes e a admissão tardia em 18. Os escores dos pacientes na enfermaria e na unidade de alta dependência/unidade de terapia intensiva foram estatisticamente diferentes (tempo de internação: 8 vs. 7, p < 0,001; CR-POSSUM: 4,4% vs. 15,9%, p < 0,001). Os dois escores foram preditivos do destino imediato pós-cirurgia (p < 0,001). Em relação à admissão imediata em UAD/UTI, CR-POSSUM mostrou uma forte associação (ASC 0,78; p = 0,034) com um ponto de corte ≥ 9,16 (sensibilidade: 62,5%; especificidade: 75,2%), superou o IAC (ASC 0,67, p = 0,048), com ponto de corte ≤ 7 (sensibilidade: 67,3%; especificidade: 56,1%). Conclusões Tanto o CR-POSSUM quanto o IAC foram associados à decisão clínica de admitir um paciente em unidade de alta dependência/unidade de terapia intensiva imediatamente após a cirurgia. CR-POSSUM isolado mostrou uma capacidade discriminativa melhor.

[CR-POSSUM and Surgical Apgar Score as predictive factors for patients' allocation after colorectal surgery]. / Escore CR­POSSUM e Índice de Apgar Cirúrgico como fatores preditivos para a alocação de pacientes após cirurgia colorretal.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Surgical patients frequently require admission in high-dependency units or intensive care units. Resources are scarce and there are no universally accepted admission criteria, so patients' allocation must be optimized. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between postoperative destination of patients submitted to colorectal surgery and the scores ColoRectal Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (CR-POSSUM) and Surgical Apgar Score (SAS) and, secondarily find cut-offs to aid this allocation. METHODS: A cross-sectional prospective observational study, including all adult patients undergoing colorectal surgery during a 2 years period. Data collected from the electronic clinical process and anesthesia records. RESULTS: A total of 358 patients were included. Median score for SAS was 8 and CR-POSSUM had a median mortality probability of 4.5%. Immediate admission on high-dependency units/intensive care units occurred in 51 patients and late admission in 18. Scores from ward and high-dependency units/intensive care units patients were statistically different (SAS: 8 vs. 7, p<0.001; CR-POSSUM: 4.4% vs. 15.9%, p<0.001). Both scores were found to be predictors of immediate postoperative destination (p<0.001). Concerning immediate high-dependency units/intensive care units admission, CR-POSSUM showed a strong association (AUC 0.78, p=0.034) with a ≥9.16 cut-off point (sensitivity: 62.5%; specificity: 75.2%), outperforming SAS (AUC 0.67, p=0.048), with a ≤7 cut-off point (sensitivity: 67.3%; specificity: 56.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Both CR-POSSUM and SAS were associated with the clinical decision to admit a patient to the high-dependency units/intensive care units immediately after surgery. CR-POSSUM alone showed a better discriminative capacity.

Validity of the CR-POSSUM model in surgery for colorectal cancer in Spain (CCR-CARESS study) and comparison with other models to predict operative mortality.

BACKGROUND: To validate and recalibrate the CR- POSSUM model and compared its discriminatory capacity with other European models such as POSSUM, P-POSSUM, AFC or IRCS to predict operative mortality in surgery for colorectal cancer. METHODS: Prospective multicenter cohort study from 22 hospitals in Spain. We included patients undergoing planned or urgent surgery for primary invasive colorectal cancers between June 2010 and December 2012 (N = 2749). Clinical data were gathered through medical chart review. We validated and recalibrated the predictive models using logistic regression techniques. To calculate the discriminatory power of each model, we estimated the areas under the curve - AUC (95% CI). We also assessed the calibration of the models by applying the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality was 1.5% and 30-day mortality, 1.7%. In the validation process, the discriminatory power of the CR-POSSUM for predicting in-hospital mortality was 73.6%. However, in the recalibration process, the AUCs improved slightly: the CR-POSSUM reached 75.5% (95% CI: 67.3-83.7). The discriminatory power of the CR-POSSUM for predicting 30-day mortality was 74.2% (95% CI: 67.1-81.2) after recalibration; among the other models the POSSUM had the greatest discriminatory power, with an AUC of 77.0% (95% CI: 68.9-85.2). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good fit for all the recalibrated models. CONCLUSION: The CR-POSSUM and the other models showed moderate capacity to discriminate the risk of operative mortality in our context, where the actual operative mortality is low. Nevertheless the IRCS might better predict in-hospital mortality, with fewer variables, while the CR-POSSUM could be slightly better for predicting 30-day mortality. TRAIL REGISTRATION: Registered at: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02488161.

Long-term outcomes and propensity score matching analysis: rectal cancer resection for patients with elevated preoperative risk.

BACKGROUND: It is still controversial about the treatment strategy for rectal cancer patients with elevated operative risk and elder rectal cancer patients. METHODS: This study presented a retrospective single center experience in rectal cancer proctectomy for high operative risk patients. High operative risk patient was defined as Cr-POSSUM > 5% combined with associated risk factors. 220 in 1477 consecutive patients met the inclusion criteria. RESULTS: 132 patients were selected (66:66) after propensity score matching. The total complication rate between conventional open rectal resection (71 %) and laparoscopic surgery (41%) was significantly different (p = 0.0005). There is a significantly positive correlation between open surgery and advanced Dindo Classification (p = 0.02). Cr-POSSUM is positively correlated with Dindo Classification (p = 0.01). There was no significant difference in survival rate among stage I~II, different age groups or different Cr-POSSUM score sub-groups. However, stage III-IV tumor patients in laparoscopic group experienced improved overall survival rate. (p < 0.0001). For patients with preoperative pulmonary or renal disease, patients in laparoscopic group also had better long term prognosis (p = 0.03, p = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate the potential advantages of laparoscopic rectal cancer resection for high operative risk patients, especially for the patients with preoperative respiratory or renal disease and stage III cancer.

Is colorectal surgery beyond the age of 80 still feasible with acceptable mortality? An analysis of the predictive value of CR-POSSUM and life expectancy after hospital discharge.

AIM: Increased morbidity and mortality could mitigate the positive effect of surgery in elderly patients undergoing colorectal resections. This retrospective study aims to describe early morbidity and mortality together with long-term survival in octogenarians and nonagenarians undergoing colorectal surgery. Predictors for in-hospital mortality are identified. The predictive value of CR-POSSUM is assessed. METHOD: Data on consecutive patients 80 years old or more undergoing a colorectal resection in our centre from 2004 until 2010 were analysed. RESULTS: Some 286 patients [median age 84 years; interquartile range (IQR) 81.6-86.1; 133 men, 47%] underwent a colorectal resection. Median follow-up was 32 months (IQR 14.5-51.2). Two hundred and fifty-eight patients (90%) were operated on for malignancy. Only 64 patients (22.4%) underwent a laparoscopic procedure. Overall median hospital stay was 12 days (IQR 9.0-20.0) and in-hospital mortality was 9.4%. Seventy-six per cent (n = 170) of patients could return home after discharge. The 1-year survival rate was 78.6% (95% CI 73.8-82.7). Median CR-POSSUM for in-hospital mortality was 12.6% (IQR 11.9-21.0). The concordance probability estimate was 0.668 (95% CI 0.609-0.728), reflecting a moderate predictive capacity of CR-POSSUM. Once patients had been discharged from hospital, life expectancy was similar to that of the Belgian general population. CONCLUSION: Colorectal surgery in octogenarians and nonagenarians resulted in a considerable in-hospital mortality of about 9%. One-year mortality added an additional 12%, which is in concordance with the overall life expectancy at that age.

Prognostic scoring systems-validation and their utility in patients with abdominal sepsis in colon peritonitis.

AIM: The purpose of this article is to analyze and validate the CR-POSSUM score in patients with peritonitis of colonic origin, considering mortality forecasting ability. METHODS: We conducted a prospective longitudinal study of the Surgery Clinic in the Emergency Hospital in Bucharest in January 2008-December 2011. Patients operated on for peritonitis of colonic origin were included in this study. The prognostic CR-POSSUM scores and Mannheim peritonitis index were calculated by using data from observation sheets. There have been a number of deaths and overall mortality was calculated. RESULTS: There were 58 patients with abdominal sepsis, hospitalized and operated, registering a 17.24% mortality rate. Time from admission until the time of operation was divided between up to 24 hours and over 24 hours, recording 27 (46.55%) cases operated <24 hours and 31 (53, 45%) of patients operated> for 24 hours. Operative severity scores were calculated by taking into account data provided by each surgeon on intraoperative appearance. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrated that both CR-POSSUM score and Mannheim have a prognostic value for patients with abdominal sepsis in colonic peritonitis, both being surgery scores.

POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and Cr-POSSUM Scoring Systems as Predictors of Postoperative Morbidity and Mortality in Elderly Colorectal Cancer Patients

PURPOSE: The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Morbidity and Mortality (POSSUM), the Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM), and the colorectal-POSSUM (Cr-POSSUM) are relative scoring systems for the prediction of postoperative morbidity and mortality. This study is designed to evaluate the usefulness of each scoring system in elderly colorectal cancer patients undergoing major colorectal surgery. METHODS: From January 2000 to May 2008, the authors retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 251 elderly colorectal cancer patients who had undergone surgery. Collected data were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U-test, a risk stratification analysis, and a receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve to evaluate the usefulness and the accuracy of each scoring system. RESULTS: All the predicted morbidity and mortality rates calculated by using the three POSSUM systems were higher than the observed morbidity and mortality rates. A risk stratification analysis showed a considerable correlation in risk prediction between the observed data and the calculated data. The ROC curves showed that all three POSSUM scoring systems had quite high accuracies as predictors of postoperative morbidity and mortality. POSSUM and P-POSSUM were more accurate than Cr-POSSUM. CONCLUSION: All three scoring systems have a tendency for overestimation. The accuracies of POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and Cr-POSSUM as predictors are acceptance, and POSSUM and P-POSSUM are more accurate than Cr-POSSUM for prediting postoperative morbidity and mortality.