Balancing fracture risk versus risk of mortality before fracture among women aged 80 years or older.

BACKGROUND: Most fractures occur in women aged ≥80 years but competing mortality unrelated to fracture may limit the benefit of osteoporosis drug therapy for some women in late life. Our primary aim was to develop separate prediction models for non-spine fracture (NSF) and mortality before fracture to identify subsets of women with varying fracture versus mortality risks. METHODS: Separate prediction models were developed for NSF and mortality before NSF for 4895 women aged ≥80 years enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) or the Health Aging and Body Composition (HABC) study. Proportional hazards models modified to account for competing mortality were used to identify candidate risk factors for each outcome. Predictors associated with NSF or mortality (p < 0.2) were included in separate competing risk models to estimate the cumulative incidence of NSF and mortality before NSF during 5 years of follow-up. This process was repeated to develop separate prediction models for hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. RESULTS: Significant predictors of NSF (race, total hip BMD, grip strength, prior fracture, falls, and use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, benzodiazepines, or oral/transdermal estrogen) differed from predictors of mortality before NSF (age, walking speed, multimorbidity, weight change, shrinking, smoking, self-rated health, dementia, and use of warfarin). Within nine subsets of women defined by tertiles of risk, 5-year outcomes varied from 28% NSF and 8% mortality in the high-risk NSF/low-risk mortality subset, to 9% NSF and 22% mortality in the low-risk NSF/high-risk mortality subset. Similar results were seen for predictors of hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. CONCLUSION: Considerable variation in 5-year competing mortality risk is present among women in late life with similar 5-year NSF risk. Both fracture risk and life expectancy should inform shared clinical decision-making regarding initiation or continuation of osteoporosis drug therapy for women aged ≥80 years.

Mortality among papillary thyroid cancer patients by detection route: a hospital-based retrospective cohort study.

Background: Incidence rates of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) have increased rapidly, with incidentally detected cancers contributing a large proportion. We aimed to explore the impact of incidental detection on thyroid cancer-specific and competing mortality among PTC patients. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of PTC patients at a cancer center in Guangzhou. Baseline information on detection route and other covariates were collected between 2010 and 2018, and death outcome was followed up for each patient. Cumulative incidence functions were used to estimate the mortality risk of thyroid cancer and competing risk. Cause-specific hazard models were then utilized to explore the association between detection routes and PTC-specific and competing mortality. Results: Of the 2874 patients included, 2011 (70.0%) were detected incidentally, and the proportion increased from 36.9% in 2011 to 82.3% in 2018. During a median follow-up of 5.6 years, 42 deaths occurred, with 60% of them due to competing causes. The probability of competing mortality at 5 years in the non-incidental group and incidental group was 1.4% and 0.4%, respectively, and PTC-specific mortality in the non-incidental group and incidental group was 1.0% and 0.1%, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, the HRs of incidental detection were 0.13 (95% CI: 0.04-0.46; P = 0.01) and 0.47 (95% CI: 0.20-1.10; P = 0.10) on PTC-specific mortality and competing mortality, respectively. Conclusions: Incidental detection is associated with a lower risk of PTC-specific and competing mortality. Under the context of increasing magnitude of overdiagnosis, incorporation of detection route in clinical decision-making might be helpful to identify patients who might benefit from more extensive or conservative therapeutic strategies.

Cause of Death in Patients with Oropharyngeal Carcinoma by Human Papillomavirus Status: Comparative Data Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCC) has increased in recent decades, and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the main cause of OPSCC. The data regarding causes of death (CODs) are vitally important in informing follow-up strategies and revising treatment strategies to deal with any possible preventable treatment-related COD. However, limited studies have assessed the competing COD by HPV status in patients with OPSCC. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to analyze the distribution of the competing COD according to HPV status in OPSCC. METHODS: We retrospectively included stage I-IVB patients with OPSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2010 and 2015. The association between HPV status and head and neck cancer-specific mortality (HNCSM), second primary cancer mortality (SPCM), and noncancer-caused mortality (NCCM) were analyzed. The chi-square test, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and Fine and Gray model were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: We included 5852 patients in this study and 73.2% (n=4283) of them had HPV-related tumors. A total of 1537 (26.3%) patients died, including 789 (51.3%), 333 (21.7%), and 415 (27%) patients who died from head and neck cancer, second cancer, and noncancer causes, respectively. The 5-year HNCSM, SPCM, NCCM, and overall mortality were 14.7%, 6.5%, 7.7%, and 26.4%, respectively. Those with HPV-positive disease had a lower cumulative incidence of HNCSM (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 0.362, 95% CI 0.315-0.417; P<.001), SPCM (sHR 0.400, 95% CI 0.321-0.496; P<.001), and NCCM (sHR 0.460, 95% CI 0.378-0.560; P<.001) than those with HPV-negative disease. The 5-year risk of HNCSM was 26.9% and 10.7% in those with HPV-negative and HPV-positive disease, respectively (P<.001). The 5-year risk of SPCM was 12.4% and 4.6% in those with HPV-negative and HPV-positive disease, respectively (P<.001). The 5-year risk of NCCM of death was 13.7% and 5.8% in those with HPV-negative and HPV-positive disease, respectively (P<.001). Using the Fine and Gray competing-risks model, our results show that those with HPV-negative tumors had a significantly higher risk of HNCSM (P<.001), SPCM (P<.001), and NCCM (P<.001) than those with HPV-negative tumors. CONCLUSIONS: HPV-positive OPSCC has a lower NCSM, SPCM, and NCCM as compared to those with HPV-negative OPSCC. HPV positivity is a favorable prognostic factor in the context of overcoming cancer as well as in terms of reducing the risk of other CODs in OPSCC. Our finding supports the need to tailor patient follow-up based on the HPV status of patients with OPSCC.

External validation of the QLifetime cardiovascular risk prediction tool: population cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is recommended in many clinical guidelines, but lifetime risk models are rarely externally validated. The aim of this study was to externally validate the QRiskLifetime incident CVD risk prediction tool. METHODS: Independent external validation of QRiskLifetime using Clinical Practice Research Datalink data, examining discrimination and calibration in the whole population and stratified by age, and reclassification compared to QRISK3. Since lifetime CVD risk is unobservable, performance was evaluated at 10-years' follow-up, and lifetime performance inferred in terms of performance for in the different age-groups from which lifetime predictions are derived. RESULTS: One million, two hundreds sixty thousand and three hundreds twenty nine women and 1,223,265 men were included in the analysis. Discrimination was excellent in the whole population (Harrell's-C = 0.844 in women, 0.808 in men), but moderate to poor stratified by age-group (Harrell's C in people aged 30-44 0.714 for both men and women, in people aged 75-84 0.578 in women and 0.556 in men). Ten-year CVD risk was under-predicted in the whole population, and in all age-groups except women aged 45-64, with worse under-prediction in older age-groups. Compared to those at highest QRISK3 estimated 10-year risk, those with highest lifetime risk were younger (mean age: women 50.5 vs. 71.3 years; men 46.3 vs. 63.8 years) and had lower systolic blood pressure and prevalence of treated hypertension, but had more family history of premature CVD, and were more commonly minority ethnic. Over 10-years, the estimated number needed to treat (NNT) with a statin to prevent one CVD event in people with QRISK3 ≥ 10% was 34 in women and 37 in men, compared to 99 and 100 for those at highest lifetime risk. CONCLUSIONS: QRiskLifetime underpredicts 10-year CVD risk in nearly all age-groups, so is likely to also underpredict lifetime risk. Treatment based on lifetime risk has considerably lower medium-term benefit than treatment based on 10-year risk.

Characteristics Associated With 5-Year Fracture Risk Versus 5-Year Mortality Risk Among Late-Life Men.

BACKGROUND: Identifying late-life men who might benefit from treatment to prevent fracture is challenging given high mortality. Our objective was to evaluate risks of clinical fracture, hip fracture, and mortality prior to fracture among men aged at least 80 years. METHODS: Study participants included 3 145 community-dwelling men (mean [standard deviation] age 83 [2.8] years) from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study. We used separate multivariable Fine-Gray competing risk models with prespecified risk factors (age, hip bone mineral density [BMD], recent fracture [<5 years], fall history [previous year], and multimorbidity [# conditions]) to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios and absolute 5-year risks of any clinical fracture and mortality prior to clinical fracture. Secondary analysis considered a hip fracture. RESULTS: There were 414 incident clinical fractures and 595 deaths without prior fracture within 5 years. BMD, fall history, and recent fracture were strong predictors of clinical fracture. Age and multimorbidity were strong predictors of mortality before fracture. After accounting for competing risks, age, BMD, and fall history were each associated with both risks of hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. Model discrimination varied from 0.65 (mortality before fracture) to 0.79 (hip fracture). Estimated mortality differed substantially among men with similar clinical fracture risk due to a modest correlation between fracture risk and competing mortality risk = 0.37. CONCLUSION: In late-life men, strong risk factors for clinical fracture and hip fracture include fall history, BMD, and recent fracture. Osteoporosis drug treatment decisions may be further enhanced by consideration of fracture risk versus overall life expectancy.

Breast cancer mortality of older patients with and without recurrence analysed by novel multi-state models.

INTRODUCTION: In older patients with breast cancer, the risk of dying from other causes than breast cancer strongly increases after the age of 70. The aim of this study was to assess contributions of breast cancer mortality versus other-cause mortality after locoregional or distant recurrence in a population-based cohort of older patients analysed by multi-state models. METHODS: Surgically treated patients ≥70 years diagnosed with stage I-III breast cancer in 2003-2009 were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. A novel multi-state model with locoregional and distant recurrence that incorporates relative survival was fitted. Other-cause and breast cancer mortality were indicated as population and excess mortality. RESULTS: Overall, 18,419 patients were included. Ten-year cumulative incidences of locoregional and distant recurrence were 2.8% (95%CI 2.6-3.1%) and 12.5% (95%CI 11.9-13.1%). Other-cause mortality increased from 23.9% (95%CI 23.7-24.2%) in patients 70-74 years to 73.8% (95%CI 72.2-75.4%) in those ≥80 years. Ten-year probabilities of locoregional or distant recurrence with subsequent breast cancer death were 0.4-1.3% and 10.2-14.6%, respectively. For patients with a distant recurrence in the first two years after diagnosis, breast cancer death probabilities were 95.3% (95%CI 94.2-96.4%), 93.1% (95%CI 91.6-94.6%), and 88.6% (95%CI 86.5-90.8%) in patients 70-74, 75-79, and ≥80 years. CONCLUSION: In older patients without recurrence, prognosis is driven by other-cause mortality. Although locoregional recurrence is a predictor for worse outcome, given its low incidence it contributes little to breast cancer mortality after diagnosis. For patients who develop a distant recurrence, breast cancer remains the dominant cause of death, even at old age.

Causes of long-term mortality in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinomas.

PURPOSE: After treatment of a head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), patients with an adequate control of the tumor have a decreased overall survival when compared to age- and gender-matched controls in the general population. The aim of our study was to analyze the causes of long-term mortality in patients with HNSCC. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective study of 5122 patients with an index HNSCC treated at our center between 1985 and 2018. We analyzed the survival considering three causes of death: mortality associated with the HNSCC index tumor, mortality associated with a second or successive neoplasm, and mortality associated with a non-cancer cause. RESULTS: After the diagnosis of an HNSCC the most frequent cause of death is the head and neck tumor itself during the first 3.5 years of follow-up. Thereafter, mortality is more frequently associated with competing causes of death, such as second malignancies and non-cancer causes. Mortality associated with second and successive neoplasms was 2.3% per year, a percentage that was maintained constant throughout the follow-up. Likewise, mortality attributable to non-cancer causes was 1.6% per year, which also remained constant. There were differences in the mortality patterns according to the characteristics of the patients. CONCLUSION: There are differences in the mortality patterns of patients with HNSCC depending on their characteristics. Knowledge of these patterns can help in the design of guidelines to improve the follow-up protocols of this group of patients to optimize the clinical cost-effectiveness.

Assessing Interventions That Prevent Multiple Infectious Diseases: Simple Methods for Multidisease Modeling.

BACKGROUND: Many cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) only consider outcomes for a single disease when comparing interventions that prevent or treat 1 disease (e.g., vaccination) to interventions that prevent or treat multiple diseases (e.g., vector control to prevent mosquito-borne diseases). An intervention targeted to a single disease may be preferred to a broader intervention in a single-disease model, but this conclusion might change if outcomes from the additional diseases were included. However, multidisease models are often complex and difficult to construct. METHODS: We present conditions for when multiple diseases should be considered in such a CEA. We propose methods for estimating health outcomes and costs associated with control of additional diseases using parallel single-disease models. Parallel modeling can incorporate competing mortality and coinfection from multiple diseases while maintaining model simplicity. We illustrate our approach with a CEA that compares a dengue vaccine, a chikungunya vaccine, and mosquito control via insecticide and mosquito nets, which can prevent dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and yellow fever. RESULTS: The parallel models and the multidisease model generated similar estimates of disease incidence and deaths with much less complexity. When using this method in our case study, considering only chikungunya and dengue, the preferred strategy was insecticide. A broader strategy-insecticide plus long-lasting insecticide-treated nets-was not preferred when Zika and yellow fever were included, suggesting the conclusion is robust even without the explicit inclusion of all affected diseases. LIMITATIONS: Parallel modeling assumes independent probabilities of infection for each disease. CONCLUSIONS: When multidisease effects are important, our parallel modeling method can be used to model multiple diseases accurately while avoiding additional complexity.

Cause-Specific Mortality Among Survivors From T1N0M0 Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: More T1N0M0 renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is detected and the prognosis has improved, but, the current focus on non-RCC-related mortality is superficial. We investigated cause-specific mortality and its temporal patterns after an RCC diagnosis. METHODS: In the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-18 database, patients with T1N0M0 RCC treated with partial nephrectomy (PN) or radical nephrectomy (RN) during 2000-15 were identified. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for cause of death were calculated. Risk predictors for each cause-specific mortality were investigated using the Fine and Gray sub-distribution model. RESULTS: In all, 68,612 eligible patients were pooled. A total of 14,047 (20.5%) patients had died (cardiovascular disease [CVD], 28.3%; other non-cancer-related diseases, 20.3%; RCC, 18.7%; other cancer types, 16.3%; non-disease events, 16.1%) during follow-up. Heart disease, diabetes mellitus, and cerebrovascular disease were the primary causes of non-RCC-related mortality within 1 year after the diagnosis. The greatest proportion of death (39.0%) occurred within 1-5 years after the diagnosis, mostly due to RCC itself, followed by heart disease. However, >5 years after the diagnosis, heart disease became the leading cause of death. Compared with the general US population, a 21% (SMR, 1.21; 95%CI 1.19-1.23) increased risk of all-mortality was observed; RCC patients had a higher risk of heart disease-related death within 5-10 years (SMR, 1.10; 95%CI 1.04-1.17) and >10 years (1.12; 1.02-1.22) after the diagnosis. Older age and RN increased the death risk of CVD and RCC-specific mortality. Although a larger tumor diameter increased the risk of RCC-specific death, this was not a significant predictor for CVD. Moreover, for T1N0M0 RCC tumors of diameter >4 cm, there was no significant difference in CVD incidence for RN vs. PN. CONCLUSIONS: RCC-specific mortality is a common challenge for the prognosis. Importantly, a large proportion and higher SMRs of other non-RCC-related diseases (especially CVD) should not be disregarded for the better holistic management of survivors of local RCC. Targeted prevention strategies for non-RCC-related death could lead to significant reductions in mortality for RCC survivors.

Conditional relative survival and competing mortality in patients who underwent surgery for lung cancer: A nationwide cohort study.

We aimed to investigate the conditional relative survival (CRS) and competing mortality in patients who underwent surgery for newly diagnosed lung cancer. Using a nationwide population-based database, we calculated 5-year CRS on 1 to 5 years survival after surgery. These rates were reported according to age, sex, socioeconomic status, comorbidities and treatment received. We also estimated cause-specific mortality with the consideration of competing risk. We identified 34 349 patients newly diagnosed with primary lung cancer from 2007 to 2013. The 5-year CRS after surgery was 71.7% at baseline improving steadily to 85.4% by 5 years, suggesting evidence of persistent excess mortality risk. Throughout the period, lung cancer was the most common cause of death, contributing to 83.6% mortality 1 year after surgery and 66.3% 5 years after surgery. Other causes of death included cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease, which increased continuously with time after surgery. CRS rates for patients with lung cancer improved over time but did not reach the level of the general population even 5 years after surgery. Although the main cause of death continues to be lung cancer, death from noncancer causes increased with time after surgery. Evidence-based decisions could be made on the dynamic risk profiles of the patients.

Pathology grade influences competing mortality risks in elderly men with prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Recent guidelines recommend active management of prostate cancer (CaP), especially high-risk disease, in elderly men. However, descriptive data from a large cohort with extended follow up on the risk of death from CaP in men diagnosed over 70 years of age and its relationship to Gleason score (GS) and serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) level is lacking. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, we evaluated the influence of GS and serum PSA levels on the risks of mortality from PC (PCM) and mortality from other causes in localized (LPC) and metastatic (MPC) disease in elderly population. METHODS: Men diagnosed with PC over 70 years of age between 2004 and 2016 were divided into LPC and MPC groups, categorized by age: 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85-89, and ≥90 years and stratified by GS <7, 7, and >7, and serum PSA level <4, 4-10, 10-20, 20-50, and >50 ng/mL. Competing risk estimates for PCM and mortality from other causes were generated for both groups. RESULTS: Of the 85,649 men, 85.5 % were LPC at diagnosis. Overall, at a median follow up of 4 years, 15% of the men had died including a third from PC. While <15% of men with GS ≤7 died from PC, the PCM was >30% in men with GS >7 in LPC group, which accounted for almost half of total deaths for age 70-84 years. The GS >7 was also significantly associated with PCM in men with MPC. Furthermore, PCM directly correlated with serum PSA levels, with mortality rates reaching up to 50% and 70% for PSA >50 ng/dl for LPC and MPC, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There is a substantial risk of dying in men diagnosed with LPC over 70 years of age with GS >7 or a serum PSA >20 ng/mL. Furthermore, the risk for death for MPC directly correlated with GS with PCM increasing from 10%-30% for GS ≤7 to >50% for GS >7. The data, in conjunction with other clinical parameters such as comorbidities could be used to counsel elderly men on management options of PC for both localized and metastatic PC.

Durable therapeutic gain despite competing mortality in long-term follow-up of a randomized hyperfractionated radiotherapy trial for locally advanced head and neck cancer.

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES: To examine the therapeutic ratio and mortality profile over time in a radiotherapy randomized trial in stage III-IV larynx/pharynx cancer with long-term follow-up. MATERIALS/METHODS: From 1988 to 1995, 331 cases were randomized to either hyperfractionated (HF) (58 Gy/40 fractions, twice daily) or conventional (CF) (51 Gy/20 fractions, once daily) radiotherapy. Overall survival (OS), locoregional (LRC), distant control (DC), ≥Grade 3 late toxicity (LT), and relative mortality risk profile over time were compared between both arms. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 13.6 years. HF had a 10% improved OS at 5-years (40% vs 30%, p = 0.04), but the benefit diminished to 3% at 10-years (21% vs 18%). A trend towards higher LRC with HF remained (5-year: 49% vs 40%; 10-year: 49% vs 39%, p = 0.05). DC rates were unchanged (5-year: 87% vs 85%; 10-year: 87 vs 84%, p = 0.56). LT rates were similar (HF vs CF: 5-year: 9% vs 12%; 10-year: 11% vs 14%, p = 0.27). Multivariable analysis confirmed that HF reduced mortality risk by 31% [HR 0.69 (0.55-0.88), p < 0.01] and locoregional failure risk by 35% [HR 0.65 (0.48-0.89), p < 0.01]. Index cancer mortality (5-year: 46% vs 51%; 10-year: 49% vs 55%) was lower in the HF arm. Competing mortality (mostly smoking-related) was also numerically lower with HF at 5-years (14% vs 19%) but became similar at 10-years (30% vs 28%). CONCLUSIONS: This trial confirms that HF with augmented total dose has a durable 10% effect size on LRC with comparable LT. OS benefit is evident at 5-years (10%) but relative mortality risk profile changes in longer follow-up.

Socioeconomic Status-Related Parameters as Predictors of Competing (Non-Bladder Cancer) Mortality after Radical Cystectomy.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of socioeconomic status-related parameters on competing (non-bladder cancer) mortality after radical cystectomy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 1,268 consecutive patients who underwent radical cystectomy for urothelial or undifferentiated bladder cancer at our institution between 1993 and 2016 with a mean age of 69 years (median 70 years) were studied. The mean -follow-up of the censored patients was 7.2 years (median 5.7 years). Proportional hazard models for competing risk were used to identify predictors of non-bladder cancer (competing) mortality. The following parameters were included into multivariate analyses: age, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification, Charlson score, gender, level of education, smoking status, marital status, local tumour stage, lymph node status, adjuvant and neoadjuvant chemotherapy. RESULTS: Besides age and both comorbidity classifications, the socioeconomic status-related parameters gender (female versus male, hazard ratio [HR] 0.58, 95% CI 0.40-0.84, p = 0.0042), level of education (university degree or master craftsman versus others, HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.56-0.1.03, p = 0.0801), smoking status (current smoking versus others, HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.10-1.96, p = 0.0085) and marital status (married versus others, HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.50-0.92, p = 0.0133) were independent predictors of competing mortality after radical cystectomy. If considered in combination (multiplication of HRs), the prognostic impact of socioeconomic parameters superseded that of the investigated comorbidity classifications. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic status-related parameters may provide important information on the long-term competing mortality risk after radical cystectomy supplementary to chronological age and comorbidity.

Which comorbidity classification is best suited to identify patients at risk for 90-day and long-term non-bladder cancer mortality after radical cystectomy?

PURPOSE: There is no consensus on the best comorbidity measure in candidates for radical cystectomy. The aim of this study was to identify tool best suited to identify patients at risk for 90-day or premature long-term non-bladder cancer mortality. METHODS: We studied 1268 patients who underwent radical cystectomy to identify patients at risk for 90-day and later-than-90-day mortality, respectively. Six classifications were investigated as possible predictors of both types of mortality. Multivariable models including age as continuous variable and each classification separately were calculated. A heuristic ranking was based on the evaluation of the hazard ratios, p values, Akaike's information criteria, and concerning the logit models also the areas under the curve. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 5.7 years. Within 90 days after surgery, the mortality rate was 4.2%. The greatest independent contribution concerning the prediction of 90-day mortality was seen with the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification (classes 3-4 versus 1-2: hazard ratio 7.98, 95% confidence interval 3.54-18.01, p < 0.0001). In the longer term, countable diseases (Canadian Cardiovascular Society classification of angina pectoris, conditions contributing the Charlson score) were of greater importance. The results of heuristic ranking were confirmed by multivariate analyses including age and all classifications together. CONCLUSIONS: Besides to chronological age, clinicians should pay particular attention to the ASA classification to identify patients at risk for 90-day mortality after radical cystectomy, whereas long-term mortality is more determined by countable comorbid diseases.

Competing Morbidities In Advanced Head And Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy: A Strong Implication Of A Multidisciplinary Team Approach.

Concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) is the standard approach for the treatment of locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Despite its undisputed advantages, CCRT is associated with acute and late toxicities, leading to unfavorable implications (eg, unplanned interruptions and noncancer-related mortality). The former prolongs the overall treatment time leading to a detrimental effect on tumor control. The latter consists of several noncancer morbidities arising from treatment-related toxicities, identifying a new pathway in cancer fate. This pathway has been termed noncancer mortality or competing mortality and consists of a series of treatment-competing morbidities, which nullify all therapeutic efforts aimed at curing these patients. The management of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma who experience treatment-related toxicities is complex and requires expertise in oncological treatment as well as supportive care. The optimal management of these patients should start with knowledge regarding the most important competing morbidities developing during all phases of the disease (ie, from diagnosis to follow-up) to minimize treatment interruptions, ensure appropriate psychological support, and achieve the best oncological result. The purpose of the present review is to analyze the most important competing morbidities due to patient's condition at baseline and CCRT, which could result in noncancer mortality. A multidisciplinary team approach is strongly required in the management of this disease.

Competing mortality in oropharyngeal carcinoma according to human papillomavirus status.

BACKGROUND: The objective of the present study is to assess differences in the competing causes of death in patients with oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPC) as a function of the human papillomavirus (HPV) status. METHODS: We studied retrospectively 423 patients with OPC with known HPV status. Among the patients included in the study, 53 (12.5%) were HPV-positive. We analyzed overall survival and competing causes of mortality according to the HPV status of the patients. RESULTS: Patients with HPV-negative tumors had lower OPC cancer-specific survival (P = .0001), second primary neoplasm survival (P = .0001), and noncancer-related causes survival (P = .13) than patients with HPV-positive tumors. This resulted in significant differences in overall survival depending on HPV status (P = .0001). CONCLUSION: Conclusion: HPV-positive OPC has a better overall survival than HPV-negative OPC. Patients with HPV-positive tumors presented a significant lower OPC cancer-specific and second primary neoplasm mortality and a marginally nonsignificant lower noncancer mortality as compared to HPV-negative tumors.

Predicting 90-day and long-term mortality in octogenarians undergoing radical cystectomy.

BACKGROUND: Radical cystectomy bears a considerable perioperative mortality risk particularly in elderly patients. In this study, we searched for predictors of perioperative and long-term competing (non-bladder cancer) mortality in elderly patients selected for radical cystectomy. METHODS: We stratified 1184 consecutive patients who underwent radical cystectomy for high risk superficial or muscle-invasive urothelial or undifferentiated carcinoma of bladder into two groups (age < 80 years versus 80 years or older). Multivariable and cox proportional hazards models were used for data analysis. RESULTS: Whereas Charlson score and the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification (but not age) were independent predictors of 90-day mortality in younger patients, only age predicted 90-day mortality in patients aged 80 years or older (odds ratio per year 1.24, p = 0.0422). Unlike in their younger counterparts, neither age nor Charlson score or ASA classification were predictors of long-term competing mortality in patients aged 80 years or older (hazard ratios 1.07-1.10, p values 0.21-0.77). CONCLUSIONS: This data suggest that extrapolations of perioperative mortality or long-term mortality risks of younger patients to octogenarians selected for radical cystectomy should be used with caution. Concerning 90-day mortality, chronological age provided prognostic information whereas comorbidity did not.

Temporal trends in competing mortality from second and subsequent primary cancers, 1980-2014: An Australian population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Subsequent primary cancers (SPCs) compete with first cancers and non-cancer events as the primary cause of death among cancer patients. We aimed to assess temporal trends in SPC mortality since 1980 among adult-onset cancer patients in competing risk models. METHODS: Patients registered with a first cancer in the population-based Tasmanian Cancer Registry, Australia, between 1980-2009 were followed up to December 2014. Cumulative incidence function (CIF) was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of cause-specific deaths in the presence of competing risks. The hazard ratios of SPC-specific deaths were assessed in two regression models: subdistribution hazard ratios from competing risk models (SHRs) and hazard ratios from Cox models (CHRs). RESULTS: Overall, 5339 (9.3%) of 57,288 patients developed SPCs and 2494 died from SPCs during the follow-up. While the cumulative incidence of first cancer deaths at 5, 10, 15 and 20-years gradually decreased over periods of first cancer diagnosis, the cumulative incidence of SPC deaths did not. The SHRs for SPC-specific deaths increased from the reference period 1980-1984 to a peak for first cancers diagnosed in 1995-1999 (SHR = 1.18, 95%CI 1.03-1.35), before a decrease in 2005-2009 (SHR = 0.82, 95%CI 0.70-0.95) in competing risk models. However, this pattern was not consistent in CHRs. For individuals with specific first cancers, those with a first prostate cancer in 1995-1999 ha d the greatest SPC mortality risk (SHR = 2.08, 95%CI 1.29-3.36). CONCLUSION: Competing risk models, but not Cox models, demonstrated temporal increases in SPC-specific mortality. Greater detection of non-fatal first prostate cancers appears to have contributed to this trend.

Cause-specific mortality in patients with head and neck cancer: Long-term follow-up of a population-based cohort from 1986 to 2012 accounting for competing risks.

OBJECTIVES: Recent recommendations for treating head and neck cancer (HNC) patients favor an individualized approach. Expected long-term survival - together with short-term survival - after diagnosis is the primary focus in assessing the treatment modality and follow-up scheme. "Disease-specific" survival up to five years is often used for measuring the prognosis and for assessing treatment methods. However, especially long-term survival is strongly affected by competing causes of death among HNC patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The long-term prognosis of patients with HNC in terms of mortality from both cancer and competing causes was analyzed according to recent methodological guidelines by examining cumulative incidence functions and models for cause-specific hazards and sub-distribution hazards in a population based cohort of 220 patients treated in a tertiary care center in Northern Finland. RESULTS: In addition to well-known tumor-related factors, mortality from HNC was associated with older age. The mortality from other causes of death was strongly dependent on age and Charlson's Comorbidity Index, but less on gender. When demonstrating the importance of individualized approach in simulated patients, the mortality was highly variable across patients with similar cancer status, but with different comorbidities or age. CONCLUSION: The overall survival pattern of HNC patients depends not only on their cancer characteristics, but also varies greatly according to their age and comorbidities. Our findings support the need for individualized treatment and follow-up protocols, and active management of comorbid diseases. Appropriate methods for analyzing competing risks should be used when presenting survival estimates of cancer patients.

Decreased Overall and Cancer-Specific Mortality with Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Treated by Intensity-modulated Radiotherapy: Multivariate Competing Risk Analysis.

Background: Value of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is still controversial in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC). Based on competing risk analysis model, we aim at evaluating the efficacy of NACT in decreasing cancer-specific mortality for LA-NPC (except T3-4N0) treated by intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Methods: Data on 957 patients with LA-NPC were retrospectively reviewed. The cumulative incidence of cancer-specific and non-cancer-specific (competing) mortality was determined by univariate and multivariate competing risk analysis. Results: 542 (56.6%) patients received NACT using docetaxel with cisplatin (TP) or fluorouracil with cisplatin (PF) regimens. The median follow-up duration was 57.23 months (range, 1.27-78.53 months). In total, 161/957 (16.8%) patients died, with 140 cancer-specific and 21 non-cancer-specific deaths were observed, respectively. In univariate analysis, the 3- and 5-year cumulative cancer-specific mortality rates for NACT vs. non-NACT group were 8.58% vs. 7.32% and 14.74% vs. 14.52% (P = 0.95), respectively. With regard to competing mortality, the 3- and 5-year cumulative rates (0.93% vs. 1.22% and 1.31% vs. 3.06%; P = 0.196) were comparable between the two groups. Multivariate competing risk analysis established NACT as an independent prognostic factor in decreasing cancer-specific mortality (HR, 0.681; 95% CI, 0.488-0.951; P = 0.016) and overall mortality (HR, 0.654; 95% CI, 0.471-0.909; P = 0.011). Conclusions: NACT may be a powerful approach in decreasing cancer-specific mortality and overall mortality in LA-NPC treated by IMRT, and our findings would strengthen the role of NACT.