Reassessing the alternative ecosystem states proposition in the African savanna-forest domain.

Ecologists are being challenged to predict how ecosystems will respond to climate changes. According to the Multi-Colored World (MCW) hypothesis, climate impacts may not manifest because consumers such as fire and herbivory can override the influence of climate on ecosystem state. One MCW interpretation is that climate determinism fails because alternative ecosystem states (AES) are possible at some locations in climate space. We evaluated theoretical and empirical evidence for the proposition that forest and savanna are AES in Africa. We found that maps which infer where AES zones are located were contradictory. Moreover, data from longitudinal and experimental studies provide inconclusive evidence for AES. That is, although the forest-savanna AES proposition is theoretically sound, the existing evidence is not yet convincing. We conclude by making the case that the AES proposition has such fundamental consequences for designing management actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the savanna-forest domain that it needs a more robust evidence base before it is used to prescribe management actions.

Narratives in exposomics: A reversed heuristic determinism?

Since the completion of the Human Genome Project (HGP), biomedical sciences have moved away from a gene-centred view and towards a multi-factorial one in which environment, broadly speaking, plays a central role in the determination of human health and disease. Environmental exposures have been shown to be highly prevalent in disease causation. They are considered as complementary to genetic factors in the etiology of diseases, hence the introduction of the concept of the "exposome" as encompassing the totality of human environmental exposures, from conception onwards (Wild in Cancer Epidemiol Biomark Prev 14:1847-1850, 2005), and the launch of the Human Exposome Project (HEP) which aims to complement the HGP. At first sight, and seen as complementary to the genome, the exposome could thus appear as contributing to the rise of novel postgenomic deterministic narratives which place the environment at their core. Is this really the case? If so, what sort of determinism is at work in exposomics research? Is it a case of environmental determinism, and if so, in what sense? Or is it a new sort of deterministic view? In this paper, we first show that causal narratives in exposomics are still very similar to gene-centred deterministic narratives. They correspond to a form of Laplacian determinism and, above all, to what Claude Bernard called the "determinism of a phenomenon". Second, we introduce the notion of "reversed heuristic determinism" to characterize the specific deterministic narratives present in exposomics. Indeed, the accepted sorts of external environmental exposures conceived as being at the origins of diseases are determined, methodologically speaking, by their identifiable internal and biological markers. We conclude by highlighting the most relevant implications of the presence of this heuristic determinism in exposomics research.

Testing influences of openness, conscientiousness, nationalism, media diversity, social class, and informational echo chambers on support for official responses to COVID-19 in Wuhan in November, 2020.

Introduction: As the COVID-19 pandemic raged, controversies about governmental responses to the epidemic also emerged in China. Previous studies mainly described the phenomenon of individual differences on support for governmental responses to COVID-19 with less attention to the underlying causal mechanisms. Thus, this study tries to verify the factors influencing public support for official behaviors in COVID-19. Method: A questionnaire survey was drew on in Wuhan city during the COVID-19 outbreak. The quota sampling method was adopted according to the gender and age structure of the population in Wuhan as well as the educational structure of the urban population in China. Results: Through structural equation analysis, this study confirms that personal factors (namely conscientiousness and nationalistic ideology), behavioral factors (namely media diversity and echo chamber acts) exert significantly positive impacts on support for governmental responses. The echo chamber acts play important mediating roles in the relationship between each independent variable and support for governmental responses. Discussion: The originality of this study is that it constructs a comprehensive model of influencing factors of support for governmental responses with the personal, behavioral, and environmental factors. While contributing insight to political attitude in China, the research results also have significance for promoting public trust and constructing healthy public opinion in China.

Contextualizing Inequities in COVID Vaccination Trends Among Project REFOCUS Pilot Sites: Racism-Related Determinants of Health.

Introduction: Coronavirus disease (COVID) dashboards rarely provide insights about the racialized contexts in which vaccination inequities occur. Objective: The purpose of this study was to use the emerging Project REFOCUS dashboard to contextualize COVID vaccination patterns among 6 diverse communities. Methods: We queried the dashboard to generate descriptive statistics on vaccination trends and racism-related contextual factors among the 6 Project REFOCUS pilot sites (Albany, Georgia, Bronx, New York, Detroit, Michigan, Helena-West Helena, Arkansas, San Antonio, Texas, and Wake County, North Carolina). Results: Vaccination rates, demographic indicators, and contextual factors differed across sites. As of October 17, 2022, the proportion of people who had received at least 1 COVID vaccine dose ranged from 58.4% (Wayne County, Michigan) to 95.0% (Wake County, North Carolina). The pilot sites with the greatest percentage of Black residents (Dougherty County, Georgia, Wayne County, Michigan, and Phillips County, Arkansas) had lower proportions of fully vaccinated people. Wayne County, Michigan, had the highest level of residential segregation between Black and White residents (78.5%) and non-White and White residents (68.8%), whereas Phillips County, Arkansas, had the highest overall mortgage denial rates (38.9%). Both counties represent settings where over 75.0% of residents report Black race and over 30.0% of the population live in poverty. Discussion: The dashboard integrates racism-related factors with COVID vaccination visualizations and provides a fuller picture of the context in which COVID trends are occurring. Conclusions: Community organizers, researchers, policymakers, and practitioners can track racism-related factors and other social determinants of health as part of the contexts in which COVID-related inequities occur.

Rainfall seasonality shapes microbial assembly and niche characteristics in Yunnan Plateau lakes, China.

Microorganisms are crucial components of freshwater ecosystems. Understanding the microbial community assembly processes and niche characteristics in freshwater ecosystems, which are poorly understood, is crucial for evaluating microbial ecological roles. The Yunnan Plateau lakes in China represent a freshwater ecosystem that is experiencing eutrophication due to anthropogenic activities. Here, variation in the assembly and niche characteristics of both prokaryotic and microeukaryotic communities was explored in Yunnan Plateau lakes across two seasons (dry season and rainy season) to determine the impacts of rainfall and environmental conditions on the microbial community and niche. The results showed that the environmental heterogeneity of the lakes decreased in the rainy season compared to the dry season. The microbial (bacterial and microeukaryotic) α-diversity significantly decreased during the rainy season. Deterministic processes were found to dominate microbial community assembly in both seasons. ß-Diversity decomposition analysis revealed that microbial community compositional dissimilarities were dominated by species replacement processes. The co-occurrence networks indicated reduced species complexity for microbes and a destabilized network for prokaryotes prior to rainfall, while the opposite was found for microeukaryotes following rainfall. Microbial niche breadth decreased significantly in the rainy season. In addition, lower prokaryotic niche overlap, but greater microeukaryotic niche overlap, was observed after rainfall. Rainfall and environmental conditions significantly affected the microbial community assembly and niche characteristics. It can be concluded that rainfall and external pollutant input during the seasonal transition alter the lake environment, thereby regulating the microbial community and niche in these lakes. Our findings offer new insight into microbiota assembly and niche patterns in plateau lakes, further deepening the understanding of freshwater ecosystem functioning.

Forecasting species' responses to climate change using space-for-time substitution.

To anticipate species' responses to climate change, ecologists have largely relied on the space-for-time-substitution (SFTS) approach. However, the hypothesis and its underlying assumptions have been poorly tested. Here, we detail how the efficacy of using the SFTS approach to predict future locations will depend on species' traits, the ecological context, and whether the species is declining or introduced. We argue that the SFTS approach will be least predictive in the contexts where we most need it to be: forecasting the expansion of the range of introduced species and the recovery of threatened species. We highlight how evaluating the underlying assumptions, along with improved methods, will rapidly advance our understanding of the applicability of the SFTS approach, particularly in the context of modelling the distribution of species.

Possibilities of Free Will in Different Physical, Social, and Technological Worlds: An Introduction to a Thematic Issue.

In this introduction to a thematic issue dealing with free will, some possibilities of free will in different physical, social, and technological worlds, as well as discussions of the possibilities are considered. What are the possibilities and limitations of free will in various other worlds differing from our world? What are the possibilities and limitations of free will in different species, both in our world and in other hypothetical worlds, including future species, naturally evolving, and artificially modified? What are the possibilities and limitations of free will related to the development of AI? How can the diversity of free will levels in an agent be related to possible levels (depth) of its self-knowledge? What can agents differing in levels of self-knowledge know and think about the issue of free will? How do different societies (social worlds) support and inhibit different manifestations of free will in different areas? What is the role of hard neurodeterminism and "mindless neuroscience" in general neuroscience? What are ethical aspects of the questions, including the initial one: "If a neuroscientist denies free will, how can they write a text of voluntary informed consent and propose to sign it?".

Connections between soil microbes, land use and European climate: Insights for management practices.

Soil microbial biomass and activity strongly depend on land use, vegetation cover, climate, and soil physicochemical properties. In most cases, this dependence was assessed by one-to-one correlations while by employing network analysis, information about network robustness and the balance between stochasticity and determinism controlling connectivity, was revealed. In this study, we further elaborated on the hypothesis of Smith et al. (2021) that cropland soils depended more on climate variables and therefore are more vulnerable to climate change. We used the same dataset with that of Smith et al. (2021) that contains seasonal microbial, climate and soil variables collected from 881 soil points representing the main land uses in Europe: forests, grassland, cropland. We examined complete (both direct and indirect relationships) and incomplete networks (only direct relationships) and recorded higher robustness in the former. Partial Least Square results showed that on average more than 45% of microbial attributes' variability was predicted by climate and habitat drivers denoting medium to strong effect of habitat filtering. Network architecture slightly affected by season or land use type; it followed the core/periphery structure with positive and negative interactions and no hub nodes. Microbial attributes (biomass, activity and their ratio) mostly belong to core block together with Soil Organic Carbon (SOC), while climate and soil variables to periphery block with the exception of cropland networks, denoting the higher dependence between microbial and climate variables in these latter. All complete networks appeared robust except for cropland and forest in summer, a finding that disagrees with our initial hypothesis about cropland. Networks' connectivity was controlled stronger by stochasticity in forest than in croplands. The lack of human interventions in forest soils increase habitat homogeneity enhancing the influence of stochastic agents such as microbial unlimited dispersal and/or stochastic extinction. The increased stochasticity implies the necessity for proactive management actions.

Quantification of microbial community assembly processes during degradation on diverse plastispheres based on physicochemical characters and phylogenetic bin-based null model analysis.

To understand the differences in degradation processes depending on the chemical properties of polymers, it is necessary to both quantify the microbiome composition and evaluate the process of microbial turnover (i.e., community assembly processes) in a variety of polymer materials. In this study, using a phylogenetic bin-based null model analysis (i.e., iCAMP), we evaluated community assembly processes from original estuary water to 37 types of polymers, which provide overwhelmingly diverse niches for microbes, in 14-day incubation experiments. First, we evaluated the polymer properties related to degradation rates. Polymers with higher adipic acid (AdA) monomer exhibited higher motility, hydrophilicity, and degradation rates, whereas those with higher aromatic monomer exhibited the opposite trends. Second, microbiome composition analysis was performed, and the microbiomes were significantly changed by the AdA or aromatic content. This was consistent with the polymer properties, suggesting that polymer motility and hydrophilicity attributable to the first-order structure modify the accessibility of the enzyme to the reaction site and hence the degradation rate, resulting in differences in microbiome community composition. Finally, we determined community assembly processes from estuary water to plastics using a phylogenetic bin-based null model analysis. The importance of heterogeneous selection was higher in mobile, hydrophilic, and fast-degrading polymers, while that of homogeneous selection was lower. This suggests that the environmental difference between before and after incubation becomes significant under rapid degradation, which select microbes adapted to biofilm environments. In addition, the more stochastic turnover prevailed, the more variation in the communities (i.e., ß-diversity) increased. This suggests that turnover processes not dictated by the environment lead to instability in community compositions.

Varied microbial community assembly and specialization patterns driven by early life microbiome perturbation and modulation in young ruminants.

Perturbations and modulations during early life are vital to affect gut microbiome assembly and establishment. In this study, we assessed how microbial communities shifted during calf diarrhea and with probiotic yeast supplementation (Saccharomyces cerevisiae var. boulardii, SCB) and determined the key bacterial taxa contributing to the microbial assembly shifts using a total of 393 fecal samples collected from 84 preweaned calves during an 8-week trial. Our results revealed that the microbial assembly patterns differed between healthy and diarrheic calves at 6- and 8-week of the trial, with healthy calves being stochastic-driven and diarrheic calves being deterministic-driven. The two-state Markov model revealed that SCB supplementation had a higher possibility to shift microbial assembly from deterministic- to stochastic-driven in diarrheic calves. Furthermore, a total of 23 and 21 genera were specific ecotypes to assembly patterns in SCB-responsive (SCB-fed calves did not exhibit diarrhea) and nonresponsive (SCB-fed calves occurred diarrhea) calves, respectively. Among these ecotypes, the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve revealed that Blautia and Ruminococcaceae UCG 014, two unidentified genera from the Ruminococcaceae family, had the highest predictiveness for microbial assembly patterns in SCB-responsive calves, while Prevotellaceae, Blautia, and Escherichia-Shigella were the most predictive bacterial taxa for microbial assembly patterns in SCB-nonresponsive calves. Our study suggests that microbiome perturbations and probiotic yeast supplementation serving as deterministic factors influenced assembly patterns during early life with critical genera being predictive for assembly patterns, which sheds light on mechanisms of microbial community establishment in the gut of neonatal calves during early life.

Theories of the origin of the genetic code: Strong corroboration for the coevolution theory.

I analyzed all the theories and models of the origin of the genetic code, and over the years, I have considered the main suggestions that could explain this origin. The conclusion of this analysis is that the coevolution theory of the origin of the genetic code is the theory that best captures the majority of observations concerning the organization of the genetic code. In other words, the biosynthetic relationships between amino acids would have heavily influenced the origin of the organization of the genetic code, as supported by the coevolution theory. Instead, the presence in the genetic code of physicochemical properties of amino acids, which have also been linked to the physicochemical properties of anticodons or codons or bases by stereochemical and physicochemical theories, would simply be the result of natural selection. More explicitly, I maintain that these correlations between codons, anticodons or bases and amino acids are in fact the result not of a real correlation between amino acids and codons, for example, but are only the effect of the intervention of natural selection. Specifically, in the genetic code table we expect, for example, that the most similar codons - that is, those that differ by only one base - will have more similar physicochemical properties. Therefore, the 64 codons of the genetic code table ordered in a certain way would also represent an ordering of some of their physicochemical properties. Now, a study aimed at clarifying which physicochemical property of amino acids has influenced the allocation of amino acids in the genetic code has established that the partition energy of amino acids has played a role decisive in this. Indeed, under some conditions, the genetic code was found to be approximately 98% optimized on its columns. In this same work, it was shown that this was most likely the result of the action of natural selection. If natural selection had truly allocated the amino acids in the genetic code in such a way that similar amino acids also have similar codons - this, not through a mechanism of physicochemical interaction between, for example, codons and amino acids - then it might turn out that even different physicochemical properties of codons (or anticodons or bases) show some correlation with the physicochemical properties of amino acids, simply because the partition energy of amino acids is correlated with other physicochemical properties of amino acids. It is very likely that this would inevitably lead to a correlation between codons (or anticodons or bases) and amino acids. In other words, since the codons (anticodons or bases) are ordered in the genetic code, that is to say, some of their physicochemical properties should also be ordered by a similar order, and given that the amino acids would also appear to have been ordered in the genetic code by selection natural, then it should inevitably turn out that there is a correlation between, for example, the hydrophobicity of anticodons and that of amino acids. Instead, the intervention of natural selection in organizing the genetic code would appear to be highly compatible with the main mechanism of structuring the genetic code as supported by the coevolution theory. This would make the coevolution theory the only plausible explanation for the origin of the genetic code.

A 30-nation investigation of lay heritability beliefs.

Lay beliefs about human trait heritability are consequential for cooperation and social cohesion, yet there has been no global characterisation of these beliefs. Participants from 30 countries (N = 6128) reported heritability beliefs for intelligence, personality, body weight and criminality, and transnational factors that could influence these beliefs were explored using public nation-level data. Globally, mean lay beliefs differ from published heritability (h2) estimated by twin studies, with a worldwide majority overestimating the heritability of personality and intelligence, and underestimating body weight and criminality. Criminality was seen as substantially less attributable to genes than other traits. People from countries with high infant mortality tended to ascribe greater heritability for most traits, relative to people from low infant mortality countries. This study provides the first systematic foray into worldwide lay heritability beliefs. Future research must incorporate diverse global perspectives to further contextualise and extend upon these findings.

We'll never have a model of an AI major-general: Artificial Intelligence, command decisions, and kitsch visions of war.

Military AI optimists predict future AI assisting or making command decisions. We instead argue that, at a fundamental level, these predictions are dangerously wrong. The nature of war demands decisions based on abductive logic, whilst machine learning (or 'narrow AI') relies on inductive logic. The two forms of logic are not interchangeable, and therefore AI's limited utility in command - both tactical and strategic - is not something that can be solved by more data or more computing power. Many defence and government leaders are therefore proceeding with a false view of the nature of AI and of war itself.

Scrutinizing microbiome determinism: why deterministic hypotheses about the microbiome are conceptually ungrounded.

This paper addresses the topic of determinism in contemporary microbiome research. I distinguish two types of deterministic claims about the microbiome, and I show evidence that both types of claims are present in the contemporary literature. First, the idea that the host genetics determines the composition of the microbiome which I call "host-microbiome determinism". Second, the idea that the genetics of the holobiont (the individual unit composed by a host plus its microbiome) determines the expression of certain phenotypic traits, which I call "microbiome-phenotype determinism". Drawing on the stability of traits conception of individuality (Suárez in Hist Philos Life Sci 42:11, 2020) I argue that none of these deterministic hypotheses is grounded on our current knowledge of how the holobiont is transgenerationally assembled, nor how it expresses its phenotypic traits.

How do we Sign a Contract if Everything is Predetermined: Does Compatibilism Help Preserve Agency?

In recent years, neurophysiological research has pushed the concept of free will towards a reductionist interpretation, largely avoiding the concept of a freely willing agent. This paper explores the ongoing debate surrounding free will, highlighting the contrasting perspectives of determinism, indeterminism (libertarianism), and compatibilism. It questions how individuals, particularly those adhering to deterministic viewpoints, can ethically navigate a world defined by causal relationships. The paper argues that reductionist approaches struggle to account for ethical responsibility and the human experience of making choices. While compatibilism offers a middle ground, asserting that actions in line with one's desires are free and thus ethically accountable, this stance is scrutinized for its potential limitations in answering questions about personal responsibility. Specifically, it is argued that compatibilism may not be the ideal framework for a neurophysiologist confronted with ethical dilemmas, thus leaving room for the re-examination of indeterminism. Through this discussion, the paper aims to contribute to a nuanced understanding of free will that incorporates both the scientific and philosophical dimensions of human decision-making.

Research on factors influencing the academic entrepreneurial ability of teachers in the digital age: Evidence from China.

In the contemporary digital economy, economic development increasingly relies on the innovation and dissemination of knowledge. Academic entrepreneurship, as a direct channel for knowledge dissemination into the marketplace, is significantly influenced by digital technology. Consequently, how to improve academic entrepreneurial ability has become a hot research topic. This study is grounded in the theory of reciprocal determinism within the context of the digital economy. We use the "2019 China Digital Economy Development Index White Paper" and collect data from 1843 survey questionnaires in China to conduct empirical research with a ridge regression model. It primarily focuses on the following individual factors and social environmental factors on academic entrepreneurial ability of teachers (AEAT): digital economy (DE), organizational support (OS), policy environment (PE), and personal learning growth (PLG). First, the findings show that the DE, OS, PE, and PLG have a significant positive impact on improving AEAT. Second, the results also indicate that social environmental factors relative to personal factors will have a greater impact. Finally, this study not only presents the first attempt to establish a connection between DE and AEAT but also holds significant managerial implications for enhancing AEAT within the context of the DE. Despite the increasing body of literature on academic entrepreneurship, the research domain pertaining specifically to AEAT remains fragmented and lacks comprehensive theoretical development. There is a pressing need for more systematic and thorough investigations to unveil the black box of factors influencing AEAT in the context of the DE.

It Is Belief in Dualism, and Not Free Will, That Best Predicts Helping: A Conceptual Replication and Extension of Baumeister et al. (2009).

Previous research found that experimentally reducing people's belief in free will affects social behaviors. However, more recent investigations could not replicate several findings in this literature. An explanation for the mixed findings is that free will beliefs are related to social behaviors on a correlational level, but experimental manipulations are not able to detect this relation. To test this interpretation, we conceptually replicated and extended a landmark study in the free will belief literature originally conducted by Baumeister et al. In five studies (total N = 1,467), we investigated whether belief in free will predicts helping behavior in comparison to other beliefs related to free will. Overall, our results support the original findings, as belief in free will correlated with helping behavior. However, the results also show that the best predictor of helping behavior is not belief in free will but belief in dualism. Theoretical implications are discussed.

Riverine flow rate drives widespread convergence in the shell morphology of imperiled freshwater mussels.

Frequent and strong morphological convergence suggests that determinism tends to supersede historical contingencies in evolutionary radiations. For many lineages living within the water column of rivers and streams, hydrodynamic forces drive widespread morphological convergence. Living below the sediment-water interface may release organisms from these hydrodynamic pressures, permitting a broad array of morphologies, and thus less convergence. However, we show here that the semi-infaunal freshwater mussels have environmentally determined convergence in shell morphology. Using 3D morphometric data from 715 individuals among 164 Nearctic species, we find that species occurring in rivers with high flow rates have evolved traits that resist dislodgement from their burrowed position in the streambed: thicker shells for their body size, with the thickest sector of the shell being the most deeply buried. Species occurring in low flow environments have evolved thinner and more uniformly thickened shells, corresponding to an alternative adaptation to dislodgement: increased burrowing efficiency. Within species, individuals also show increased shell thickness for their body size at higher flow rates, suggesting that ecophenotypy may, in part, be an important mechanism for establishing populations in new environments and thus evolutionary divergence in this highly imperiledinvertebrate group.

A Tale of Enduring Myths: Buffon's Theory of Animal Degeneration and the Regeneration of Domesticated Animals in Mid-19th Century Brazil.

The long 19th century was a period of many developments and technical innovations in agriculture and animal biology, during which actors sought to incorporate new practices in light of new information. By the middle of the century, however, while heredity steadily became the dominant concept in animal husbandry, some policies related to livestock improvement in Brazil seemed to have been tailored following a climate-deterministic concept established in the mid-18th century by the French naturalist Georges-Louis Leclerc, the Comte de Buffon. His theory of animal degeneration posited, among other things, the necessity of recurrent crossbreeding to preserve animal species living in nonnative environments from climate-induced degeneration. Although largely discredited by the early 19th century, the teachings of the French naturalist seem to have found supporters in a Brazilian program to modernize national agriculture through the application of the natural sciences. Herein I examine the revival of Buffon's theories in that government-sponsored program to improve animal husbandry and breeding techniques, including actual applications of this theory in the real world. Ultimately, I argue that Buffon's theory of degeneration was used to tailor public policies and funding for the improvement of domesticated animals in Brazil between 1856 and 1860.

Expecting the Unexpected: Entropy and Multifractal Systems in Finance.

Entropy serves as a measure of chaos in systems by representing the average rate of information loss about a phase point's position on the attractor. When dealing with a multifractal system, a single exponent cannot fully describe its dynamics, necessitating a continuous spectrum of exponents, known as the singularity spectrum. From an investor's point of view, a rise in entropy is a signal of abnormal and possibly negative returns. This means he has to expect the unexpected and prepare for it. To explore this, we analyse the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) U.S. Index as well as its constituents. Through this examination, we assess their multifractal characteristics and identify market conditions (bearish/bullish markets) using entropy, an effective method for recognizing fluctuating fractal markets. Our findings challenge conventional beliefs by demonstrating that price declines lead to increased entropy, contrary to some studies in the literature that suggest that reduced entropy in market crises implies more determinism. Instead, we propose that bear markets are likely to exhibit higher entropy, indicating a greater chance of unexpected extreme events. Moreover, our study reveals a power-law behaviour and indicates the absence of variance.