ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: We estimated the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on deaths among children under five years old by year. METHODS: We used a proportionate outcomes model with a finely disaggregated age structure to estimate rotavirus deaths prevented by vaccination over the period 2006-2019 in 186 countries. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses and compared our estimates to surveillance-based estimates in 20 countries. RESULTS: We estimate that rotavirus vaccines prevented 139,000 under-five rotavirus deaths (95% uncertainty interval 98,000-201,000) in the period 2006-2019. In 2019 alone, rotavirus vaccines prevented 15% (95% uncertainty interval 11-21%) of under-five rotavirus deaths (0.5% of child mortality). Assuming global use of rotavirus vaccines and coverage equivalent to other co-administered vaccines could prevent 37% of under-five rotavirus deaths (1.2% of child mortality). Our estimates were sensitive to the choice of rotavirus mortality burden data and several vaccine impact modeling assumptions. The World Health Organization's recommendation to remove age restrictions in 2012 could have prevented up to 17,000 rotavirus deaths in the period 2013-2019. Our modeled estimates of rotavirus vaccine impact were broadly consistent with estimates from post-vaccination surveillance sites. CONCLUSION: Rotavirus vaccines have made a valuable contribution to global public health. Enhanced rotavirus mortality prevention strategies are needed in countries with high mortality in under-5-year-old children.
Subject(s)
Rotavirus Infections , Rotavirus Vaccines , Rotavirus , Humans , Infant , Child, Preschool , Diarrhea/epidemiology , Rotavirus Infections/epidemiology , Rotavirus Infections/prevention & control , Child Mortality , VaccinationABSTRACT
OBJETIVO: analisar a tendência temporal da mortalidade por doenças infecciosas intestinais (DII) em crianças menores de cinco anos de idade no estado de São Paulo e suas Redes Regionais de Atenção à Saúde (RRAS), no período 2000-2012. MÉTODOS: estudo de série temporal sobre os óbitos com causa básica, antecedente ou contribuinte de morte por DII, obtidos a partir do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM). RESULTADOS: ocorreram 2.886 óbitos por DII no estado; a taxa de mortalidade por DII apresentou diminuição de 10,5% ao ano (intervalo de confiança de 95% 4,8; 15,8%); em 13 das 17 RRAS ocorreu diminuição significativa da taxa de mortalidade, com decréscimo anual variável entre 16,6 e 8,3% ao ano. CONCLUSÃO: a taxa de mortalidade por DII apresentou decréscimo significativo na maioria das RRAS, com diferentes velocidades, possível reflexo das desigualdades das condições socioeconômicas e de organização das redes de atenção à saúde.
OBJETIVO: analizar la tendencia de mortalidad por enfermedades infecciosas intestinales (EII) en niños menores de cinco años en el estado de São Paulo y sus Redes Regionales de Atención de Salud (RRAS), entre 2000 y 2012. MÉTODOS: estudio de series temporales sobre las muertes por causa subyacente, antecedente o contribuyente por EII, obtenidos del Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad (SIM). RESULTADOS: ocurrieron 2.886 muertes por EII en el estado; la tasa de mortalidad para EII mostró diminución de 10,5% por año (IC del 95% - 4,8 a 15,8% -; p=0,002); en 13 de 17 RRAS hubo disminución significativa en la tasa de mortalidad, con diminución anual variable entre 16,6 y 8,3% por año. CONCLUSIÓN: la tasa de mortalidad por EII se redujo significativamente en la mayoría de RRAS, con diferentes velocidades, posiblemente reflejando desigualdades de condiciones socio-económicas y de organización de las redes de atención en salud.
OBJECTIVE: to analyze time trends in mortality owing to intestinal infectious diseases (IID) among children under five years of age in São Paulo State and its Regional Health Care Networks (RRAS), from 2000 to 2012. METHODS: this was a time series study of deaths having IID as their underlying, antecedent or contributory cause, using Mortality Information System data. RESULTS: there were 2,886 deaths from IID in the state; the IID mortality rate went down by 10.5% per year (95%CI 4.8;15.8%); there was a significant decrease in the mortality rate in 13 of the 17 RRAS, with annual decrease in the range 16.6% - 8.3%. CONCLUSION: The IID mortality rate went down significantly in most RRAS, at different speeds, possibly reflecting inequalities in socio-economic conditions and health care network organization.
