On the Addams family of discrete frailty distributions for modeling multivariate case I interval-censored data.

Random effect models for time-to-event data, also known as frailty models, provide a conceptually appealing way of quantifying association between survival times and of representing heterogeneities resulting from factors which may be difficult or impossible to measure. In the literature, the random effect is usually assumed to have a continuous distribution. However, in some areas of application, discrete frailty distributions may be more appropriate. The present paper is about the implementation and interpretation of the Addams family of discrete frailty distributions. We propose methods of estimation for this family of densities in the context of shared frailty models for the hazard rates for case I interval-censored data. Our optimization framework allows for stratification of random effect distributions by covariates. We highlight interpretational advantages of the Addams family of discrete frailty distributions and theK-point distribution as compared to other frailty distributions. A unique feature of the Addams family and the K-point distribution is that the support of the frailty distribution depends on its parameters. This feature is best exploited by imposing a model on the distributional parameters, resulting in a model with non-homogeneous covariate effects that can be analyzed using standard measures such as the hazard ratio. Our methods are illustrated with applications to multivariate case I interval-censored infection data.

An Overview of Discrete Distributions in Modelling COVID-19 Data Sets.

The mathematical modeling of the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic has been attempted by a large number of researchers from the very beginning of cases worldwide. The purpose of this research work is to find and classify the modelling of COVID-19 data by determining the optimal statistical modelling to evaluate the regular count of new COVID-19 fatalities, thus requiring discrete distributions. Some discrete models are checked and reviewed, such as Binomial, Poisson, Hypergeometric, discrete negative binomial, beta-binomial, Skellam, beta negative binomial, Burr, discrete Lindley, discrete alpha power inverse Lomax, discrete generalized exponential, discrete Marshall-Olkin Generalized exponential, discrete Gompertz-G-exponential, discrete Weibull, discrete inverse Weibull, exponentiated discrete Weibull, discrete Rayleigh, and new discrete Lindley. The probability mass function and the hazard rate function are addressed. Discrete models are discussed based on the maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters. A numerical analysis uses the regular count of new casualties in the countries of Angola,Ethiopia, French Guiana, El Salvador, Estonia, and Greece. The empirical findings are interpreted in-depth.

A discrete analogue of odd Weibull-G family of distributions: properties, classical and Bayesian estimation with applications to count data.

In the statistical literature, several discrete distributions have been developed so far. However, in this progressive technological era, the data generated from different fields is getting complicated day by day, making it difficult to analyze this real data through the various discrete distributions available in the existing literature. In this context, we have proposed a new flexible family of discrete models named discrete odd Weibull-G (DOW-G) family. Its several impressive distributional characteristics are derived. A key feature of the proposed family is its failure rate function that can take a variety of shapes for distinct values of the unknown parameters, like decreasing, increasing, constant, J-, and bathtub-shaped. Furthermore, the presented family not only adequately captures the skewed and symmetric data sets, but it can also provide a better fit to equi-, over-, under-dispersed data. After producing the general class, two particular distributions of the DOW-G family are extensively studied. The parameters estimation of the proposed family, are explored by the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian approach. A compact Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to assess the behavior of the estimation methods. Finally, we have explained the usefulness of the proposed family by using two different real data sets.

On a class of non-linear transformation cure rate models.

In this paper, we propose a generalization of the mixture (binary) cure rate model, motivated by the existence of a zero-modified (inflation or deflation) distribution, on the initial number of causes, under a competing cause scenario. This non-linear transformation cure rate model is in the same form of models studied in the past; however, following our approach, we are able to give a realistic interpretation to a specific class of proper transformation functions, for the cure rate modeling. The estimation of the parameters is then carried out using the maximum likelihood method along with a profile approach. A simulation study examines the accuracy of the proposed estimation method and the model discrimination based on the likelihood ratio test. For illustrative purposes, analysis of two real life data-sets, one on recidivism and another on cutaneous melanoma, is also carried out.

Modeling different behaviors in disclosing risk perception.

In many fields, people are requested to express their level of awareness about some risk (mainly associated with health, environment, energy, etc.) by selecting a category in an ordered scale. We propose a model for such ordinal data by taking into account that the observed response does not necessarily reflect the respondent's true opinion since the final answer can be inaccurate or completely random. The proposed model hypothesizes three behaviors in the process of answering: accurate interviewees express their risk perception exactly, uncertain ones randomly select the response according to the uniform distribution, and inaccurate interviewees make evaluation errors but with high probability they choose a rating close to the true one. Statistical inference for the proposed models is addressed without assuming that the model, to be fitted, is correctly specified. Two real case studies on the awareness of geo-hydrological risk and work-related stress risk are considered using the proposed methodology.

Inference for bivariate integer-valued moving average models based on binomial thinning operation.

Time series of (small) counts are common in practice and appear in a wide variety of fields. In the last three decades, several models that explicitly account for the discreteness of the data have been proposed in the literature. However, for multivariate time series of counts several difficulties arise and the literature is not so detailed. This work considers Bivariate INteger-valued Moving Average, BINMA, models based on the binomial thinning operation. The main probabilistic and statistical properties of BINMA models are studied. Two parametric cases are analysed, one with the cross-correlation generated through a Bivariate Poisson innovation process and another with a Bivariate Negative Binomial innovation process. Moreover, parameter estimation is carried out by the Generalized Method of Moments. The performance of the model is illustrated with synthetic data as well as with real datasets.

Programming discrete distributions with chemical reaction networks.

We explore the range of probabilistic behaviours that can be engineered with Chemical Reaction Networks (CRNs). We give methods to "program" CRNs so that their steady state is chosen from some desired target distribution that has finite support in [Formula: see text], with [Formula: see text]. Moreover, any distribution with countable infinite support can be approximated with arbitrarily small error under the [Formula: see text] norm. We also give optimized schemes for special distributions, including the uniform distribution. Finally, we formulate a calculus to compute on distributions that is complete for finite support distributions, and can be compiled to a restricted class of CRNs that at steady state realize those distributions.

Clinical Trial Design Using A Stopped Negative Binomial Distribution.

We introduce a discrete distribution suggested by curtailed sampling rules common in early-stage clinical trials. We derive the distribution of the smallest number of independent and identically distributed Bernoulli trials needed to observe either s successes or t failures. This report provides a closed-form expression for the mass function, moment generating function, and provides connections to other, standard distributions.

Applying Multivariate Discrete Distributions to Genetically Informative Count Data.

We present a novel method of conducting biometric analysis of twin data when the phenotypes are integer-valued counts, which often show an L-shaped distribution. Monte Carlo simulation is used to compare five likelihood-based approaches to modeling: our multivariate discrete method, when its distributional assumptions are correct, when they are incorrect, and three other methods in common use. With data simulated from a skewed discrete distribution, recovery of twin correlations and proportions of additive genetic and common environment variance was generally poor for the Normal, Lognormal and Ordinal models, but good for the two discrete models. Sex-separate applications to substance-use data from twins in the Minnesota Twin Family Study showed superior performance of two discrete models. The new methods are implemented using R and OpenMx and are freely available.

El problema del cumpleaños, una generalización: an overview / the birthday problem

El problema del cumpleaños, en el contexto clásico, se resuelve asumiendo una distribución de probabilidades uniforme discreta de los nacimientos. El propósito de este artículo es resolver el mismo problema bajo una distribución de probabilidades discreta arbitraria, y demostrar que bajo la distribución uniforme discreta, la probabilidad de que dos o más personas cumplan años en el mismo día es subestimada.

In the classic context, the birthday problem is solved assuming a discrete uniform probability distribution of births. The main purpose of this paper is to solve the birthday problem through an arbitrary discrete probability distribution and to prove that using discrete uniform distribution, probability of two or more people's birthday at the same date is underestimated.