[Temporal pattern, spatial distribution, and factors associated with the incidence of HIV/AIDS among young people in BrazilPatrón temporal, distribución espacial y factores asociados a la incidencia de la infección por el VIH/sida en jóvenes en Brasil]. / Padrão temporal, distribuição espacial e fatores associados a incidência de HIV/AIDS entre jovens no Brasil.

Objective: To describe temporal and spatial patterns and identify the factors associated with the incidence of HIV/AIDS among young people in Brazil. Method: Ecological study of young Brazilians aged 15-24 years with reported HIV/AIDS, from 2001 to 2021. The Joinpoint method was used for the temporal analysis. Spatial clusters were detected using Bayesian methods, spatial autocorrelation, Getis-Ord Gi*, and scan techniques. Four non-spatial and spatial regression models were used to identify factors associated with the result. All statistical analyses considered p < 0.05. Results: In Brazil, the average incidence was 12.29 per 100 000 inhabitants, with an annual increase of 7.3% in the period 2007-2014 and a subsequent 3.4% decrease in 2014-2021. A high-high pattern and hotspots were observed, mainly in municipalities in the South, Southeast, Central-West, and North regions. The primary cluster was located in 572 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, with the highest relative risks in Manaus (Amazonas) and Rondonópolis (Mato Grosso). The illiteracy rate (ß = -0.08), GINI Index (ß = -3.74) and Family Health Strategy coverage (ß = -0.70) were negatively associated with the result. In contrast, the Firjan Municipal Development Index (ß = 2.37), Social Vulnerability Index (ß = 6.30), percentage of Bolsa Família recipients (ß = 0.04), and per capita income (ß = 0.008) showed a positive association. Conclusion: There was an upward trend in the incidence of HIV/AIDS until 2014, followed by a decline until 2021. High-rate clusters were concentrated in municipalities in the North, South, Southeast and Central-West regions in particular. Indicators of socioeconomic vulnerability had positive or negative effects on the result, depending on the territory investigated.

Objetivo: Describir el patrón temporal y espacial, y determinar los factores asociados a la incidencia de infección por el VIH/sida en jóvenes en Brasil. Método: Estudio ecológico en jóvenes brasileños de 15 a 24 años con diagnóstico de infección por el VIH/sida en el período 2001-2021. Para el análisis temporal se utilizó el método de regresión de puntos de inflexión (joinpoint). Los conglomerados espaciales se detectaron con métodos Bayesianos y de autocorrelación espacial, Gi* de Getis-Ord y escaneo. Se utilizaron cuatro modelos de regresión espacial y no espacial para detectar los factores asociados al resultado. En todos los análisis estadísticos se estableció un valor de p < 0,05 como umbral de significación. Resultados: En Brasil, la incidencia media fue de 12,29 por 100 000 habitantes, con un aumento del 7,3% anual en el período 2007-2014 y una reducción posterior del 3,4% en el período 2014-2021. Se observó un patrón alto/alto y la presencia de puntos calientes, principalmente en municipios del Sur, Sudeste, Centro-Oeste y Norte. El principal conglomerado se localizó en 572 municipios de Rio Grande do Sul y Santa Catarina, y los riesgos relativos más altos se observaron en Manaus (Amazonas) y Rondonópolis (Mato Grosso). La tasa de analfabetismo (ß = -0,08), el índice de Gini (ß = -3,74) y la cobertura de la estrategia de salud familiar (ß = -0,70) mostraron una asociación negativa con el resultado. En cambio, el índice de Firjan de desarrollo municipal (ß = 2,37), el índice de vulnerabilidad social (ß = 6,30), el porcentaje de personas que reciben ayuda del programa de bienestar social Bolsa Família (ß = 0,04) y los ingresos per cápita (ß = 0,008) mostraron una asociación positiva. Conclusión: Hubo una tendencia al aumento de la incidencia de infección por el VIH/sida hasta el 2014, con una reducción posterior hasta el 2021. Los conglomerados de tasas elevadas se concentraron especialmente en los municipios de las regiones Norte, Sur, Sudeste y Centro-Oeste. Los indicadores de vulnerabilidad socioeconómica tienen una influencia positiva o negativa en el resultado, según el territorio investigado.

Temporal trends and space-time distribution of leprosy relapse in Brazil from 2001 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: To analyse the temporal trends and spatiotemporal distribution of leprosy relapse in Brazil from 2001 to 2021. METHODS: An ecological study with a temporal trend approach and space-time analysis of leprosy relapse in Brazil was carried out with data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System. RESULTS: A total of 31 334 patients who experienced leprosy relapse were identified. The number of recurrent cases tended to increase throughout the study period, and this increase was significant among females and in almost all age groups, except for those <15, 50-59 and ≥70 y. Several clusters of high- and low-risk patients were identified across all regions with a heterogeneous distribution. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of relapse showed an increasing trend in some groups and was distributed in all regions.

Evolution of mortality rates among women of reproductive age in Brazilian municipalities: an ecological analysis using Global Burden of Disease estimates.

OBJECTIVES: Women's mortality at a reproductive age has been a global concern, and its decrease has been incorporated as a target of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The aim of this study was to describe the spatial-temporal evolution of mortality rates among women of reproductive age in Brazilian municipalities by groups of causes and socioeconomic indicators from 2000 to 2018. STUDY DESIGN: Ecological analysis. METHODS: This work was an ecological, descriptive study that analyzed estimates of mortality rates among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) by main groups of causes of death from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in three consecutive trienniums, T1 (2000-2002), T2 (2009-2011), and T3 (2016-2018). To quantify the temporal evolution in mortality rates, the present study calculated the percentage change for each triennium. The spatial analysis of mortality rates was carried out using Moran's index. The Pearson coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between the data. RESULTS: A significant decline in mortality rates was found for all groups of causes in all regions of the country. Despite the downward trend, the percentage change from 2009 to 2011 to 2016 to 2018 showed a decrease in the group of Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) and external causes. The decline in mortality rates of women due to external causes showed only a minimal change in the North and Northeast regions from T2 to T3, whereas a cluster of neighboring municipalities with high mortality rates persisted in the municipalities of the South region and in the state of Roraima. The ranking of the main causes of death in Brazilian municipalities showed an increase in neoplasms in detriment to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). CONCLUSIONS: The main causes of death in women of reproductive age at a more local level could be used to recognize inequalities and to develop interventions aimed at tackling premature and preventable deaths.

Taking consciousness for real: Increasing the ecological validity of the study of conscious vs. unconscious processes.

The study of consciousness has developed well-controlled, rigorous methods for manipulating and measuring consciousness. Yet, in the process, experimental paradigms grew farther away from everyday conscious and unconscious processes, which raises the concern of ecological validity. In this review, we suggest that the field can benefit from adopting a more ecological approach, akin to other fields of cognitive science. There, this approach challenged some existing hypotheses, yielded stronger effects, and enabled new research questions. We argue that such a move is critical for studying consciousness, where experimental paradigms tend to be artificial and small effect sizes are relatively prevalent. We identify three paths for doing so-changing the stimuli and experimental settings, changing the measures, and changing the research questions themselves-and review works that have already started implementing such approaches. While acknowledging the inherent challenges, we call for increasing ecological validity in consciousness studies.

Dietary type (carnivore, herbivore and omnivore) and animal species modulate the nutritional metabolome of terrestrial species.

Ecometabolomics could be implemented as a powerful tool in molecular ecology studies, but it is necessary to know the baseline of certain metabolites and understand how different traits could affect the metabolome of the animals. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to provide values for the nutritional metabolome profile of different diet groups and animal species, as well as to study the differences in the metabolomic profile due to the effect of diet type and species. To achieve this goal, blood samples were taken from healthy animals (n = 43) of different species: lion (Panthera leo), jaguar (Panthera onca), chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes), bison (Bison bison), gazelle (Gazella cuvieri) and fallow deer (Dama dama), and with different types of diet (carnivore, herbivore and omnivore). Each blood sample was analysed to determine nutritional metabolites. The main results this study provides are the nutritional metabolic profile of these animals based on the type of diet and the animal species. A significant effect of the dietary type was found on nutritional metabolite levels, with those metabolites related to protein metabolism (total protein and creatine) being higher in carnivores. There is also an effect of the species on nutritional metabolites, observing a metabolome differentiation between lion and jaguar. In the case of herbivores, bison showed higher levels of uric acid and cholesterol, and lower urea levels than gazelle and fallow deer. More molecular ecology studies are needed to further the knowledge of the metabolism of these animals.

Unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment outcomes across Brazil's geographical landscape before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: are we truly advancing toward the sustainable development/end TB goal?

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is one of the most significant infectious diseases for global public health. The reallocation of healthcare resources and the restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic have hindered access to TB diagnosis and treatment. Increases in unfavorable outcomes of the disease have been observed in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of unfavorable TB treatment outcomes in Brazil before and during the pandemic. METHODS: An ecological study with spatial analysis was conducted with all 5569 municipalities in Brazil. All reported cases of tuberculosis between January 2010 and December 2021, as well as reported cases of COVID-19 from February 2020 to December 2021, were included. The outcomes studied encompass loss to follow-up, drug-resistant tuberculosis, and death. The Getis Ord GI* technique was employed to assess spatial association, and the Kernel density estimator was used to identify areas with concentrated increases or decreases in outcomes. Bivariate Local Moran's I was used to examine the spatial association between outcomes and COVID-19 incidence. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of Ribeirão Preto Nursing School, University of São Paulo. RESULTS: There were 134,394 cases of loss to follow-up, 10,270 cases of drug resistance, and 37,863 deaths. Clusters of high and low values were identified for all three outcomes, indicating significant changes in the spatial distribution patterns. Increases in concentrations were observed for lost to follow-up cases in the Southeast, while reductions occurred in the Northeast, South, and Midwest. Drug-resistant tuberculosis experienced an increase in the Southern and Southeastern regions and a decrease in the Northeast and South. TB-related deaths showed notable concentrations in the Midwest, Northeast, South, and Southeast. There was an increase in high occurrence clusters for deaths after 2020 and 2021 in the Northeast. CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic has brought additional challenges, emphasizing the importance of enhancing efforts and disease control strategies, prioritizing early identification, treatment adherence, and follow-up. This commitment is vital for achieving the goal of tuberculosis elimination.

[Stratification of risk areas for measles transmission: a systematic reviewEstratificación de las zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión: revisión sistemática]. / Estratificação de áreas de risco de transmissão de sarampo: uma revisão sistemática.

Objective: To perform a systematic review of scientific publications addressing the use of stratification methods to define risk areas for measles transmission. Method: Articles published in English, Portuguese, and Spanish in journals indexed in the SciELO, PubMed, and LILACS databases were selected. The search terms risk assessment AND measles were used without date limits. Editorials, opinion articles, individual-level observational studies, and publications that did not focus on the application of methods to stratify measles transmission risk areas were excluded. Year of publication, authorship, country where the study was performed, objective, geographic level of analysis, method used, indicators, and limitations were recorded in a data form. Results: Thirteen articles published between 2011 and 2022 in nine countries from the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions were selected. Of these, 10 referred to the Measles Risk Assessment Tool developed by the WHO/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Only one study adapted the tool to the local context. The risk stratification indicators used in the selected studies focused on a combination of the following dimensions: population immunity, quality of surveillance systems, and epidemiologic status. The systematic output of data with adequate quality and coverage was a noteworthy aspect hindering risk stratification. Conclusion: There seems to be limited dissemination of measles risk stratification strategies, especially at local levels. The need to train human resources to process and interpret risk analyses as part of the routine of surveillance services is emphasized.

Objetivo: Realizar una revisión sistemática de las publicaciones científicas en las que se han abordado experiencias de aplicación de métodos de estratificación para definir las zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión. Métodos: Se seleccionaron artículos publicados en español, inglés o portugués en revistas indizadas en las bases de datos SciELO, PubMed y LILACS. En la búsqueda se utilizaron los descriptores "risk assessment" y "measles", sin limitaciones en la fecha de publicación. Se excluyeron editoriales, artículos de opinión, estudios de observación de pacientes individuales y publicaciones que no tratasen de la aplicación de métodos de estratificación de zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión. Se empleó un formulario para extraer la información sobre año de publicación, autoría, país de realización del estudio, objetivo, escala geográfica, método utilizado, indicadores y limitaciones. Resultados: Se seleccionaron 13 artículos publicados entre el 2011 y el 2022 en nueve países de las seis regiones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS). En 10 de ellos se utilizó como referencia la herramienta de evaluación del riesgo de sarampión creada por la OMS y los Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades de Estados Unidos. Solamente en un estudio se adaptó la herramienta al contexto local. Los indicadores utilizados para la estratificación del riesgo se basaron en una combinación de las dimensiones de inmunidad poblacional, calidad de los sistemas de vigilancia y situación epidemiológica. Entre las dificultades de la estratificación del riesgo se destaca la de generación sistemática de datos con una cobertura y calidad adecuadas. Conclusión: Las estrategias de estratificación del riesgo de transmisión del sarampión siguen sin estar, al parecer, muy extendidas, en especial a nivel local. Cabe reiterar la necesidad de fomentar la capacitación de recursos humanos para procesar e interpretar los análisis de riesgo en las operaciones habituales de los servicios de vigilancia.

A gravidade oculta da pandemia de COVID-19 em crianças e adolescentes no Brasil: uma análise territorial da mortalidade hospitalar / The hidden severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in children and adolescents in Brazil: a territorial analysis of hospital mortality

Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é descrever a distribuição geográfica da mortalidade hospitalar por COVID-19 em crianças e adolescentes durante a pandemia de 2020-2021 no Brasil. Estudo ecológico, censitário (SIVEP GRIPE), de indivíduos até 19 anos, internados com SRAG por COVID-19 ou SRAG não especificada, em municípios brasileiros, estratificados de duas formas: 1) nas cinco macrorregiões e 2) em três aglomerados urbanos: capital, municípios da região metropolitana e do interior. Verificou-se 44 internações/100 mil habitantes por COVID-19 e 241/100 mil ao se incluir a SRAG não especificada (subnotificação estimada de 81,8%). Ocorreram1.888 óbitos por COVID-19 e 4.471 óbitos se somados à SRAG não especificada, estimando-se subnotificação de 57,8% dos óbitos. A mortalidade hospitalar foi 2,3 vezes maior nas macrorregiões quando considerados apenas os casos de COVID-19, com exceção das regiões Norte e Centro-Oeste. Registrou-se também maior mortalidade hospitalar em municípios do interior. O contexto urbano esteve associado à maior mortalidade hospitalar por SRAG durante a pandemia de COVID-19 no Brasil. Residir nas macrorregiões Norte e Nordeste, e distante das capitais, ofereceu maior risco de mortalidade para crianças e adolescentes que necessitaram hospitalização.

Abstract This article aims to describe the geographical distribution of hospital mortality from COVID-19 in children and adolescents during the 2020-2021 pandemic in Brazil. Ecological, census study (SIVEP GRIPE) with individuals up to 19 years of age, hospitalized with SARS due to COVID-19 or SARS not specified in Brazilian municipalities, stratified in two ways: 1) in the five macro-regions and 2) in three urban agglomerations: capital, municipalities of the metropolitan region and non-capital municipalities. There were 44 hospitalizations/100,000 inhabitants due to COVID-19 and 241/100,000 when including unspecified SARS (estimated underreporting of 81.8%). There were 1,888 deaths by COVID-19 and 4,471 deaths if added to unspecified SARS, estimating 57.8% of unreported deaths. Hospital mortality was 2.3 times higher in the macro-regions when considering only the cases of COVID-19, with the exception of the North and Center-West regions. Higher hospital mortality was also recorded in non-capital municipalities. The urban setting was associated with higher SARS hospital mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. Living in the North and Northeast macro-regions, and far from the capitals offered a higher risk of mortality for children and adolescents who required hospitalization.

Spatial distribution of arboviruses and its association with a social development index and the waste disposal in São Luís, state of Maranhão, Brazil, 2015 to 2019 / Distribuição espacial de arboviroses e sua associação com um índice de desenvolvimento social e o descarte de lixo em São Luís, Maranhão, 2015 a 2019

ABSTRACT Objective: To detect spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of urban arboviruses and to investigate whether the social development index (SDI) and irregular waste disposal are related to the coefficient of urban arboviruses detection in São Luís, state of Maranhão, Brazil. Methods: The confirmed cases of Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya in São Luís, from 2015 to 2019, were georeferenced to the census tract of residence. The Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive regression model was used to identify the association between SDI and irregular waste disposal sites and the coefficient of urban arboviruses detection. Results: The spatial pattern of arboviruses pointed to the predominance of a low-incidence cluster, except 2016. For the years 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019, an increase of one unit of waste disposal site increased the coefficient of arboviruses detection in 1.25, 1.09, 1.23, and 1.13 cases of arboviruses per 100 thousand inhabitants, respectively. The SDI was not associated with the coefficient of arboviruses detection. Conclusion: In São Luís, spatiotemporal risk clusters for the occurrence of arboviruses and a positive association between the coefficient of arbovirus detection and sites of irregular waste disposal were identified.

RESUMO Objetivo: Detectar aglomerados espaciais e espaço-temporais de arboviroses urbanas e investigar se o índice desenvolvimento social (IDS) e o descarte irregular de lixo estão relacionados ao coeficiente de detecção das arboviroses urbanas em São Luís, Maranhão. Métodos: Os casos confirmados de dengue, Zika e chikungunya em São Luís, no período de 2015 a 2019, foram georreferenciados para o setor censitário de residência. O modelo de regressão Autorregressivo Condicional Bayesiano foi utilizado para identificar a associação entre o coeficiente de detecção de arboviroses urbanas, IDS e pontos de descarte irregular de lixo. Resultados: O padrão espacial de arboviroses apontou para a predominância de cluster de baixo coeficiente de detecção, exceto em 2016. Para os anos de 2015, 2016, 2017 e 2019, o aumento de uma unidade de ponto de lixo aumenta o coeficiente de detecção de arboviroses em 1,25, 1,09, 1,23 e 1,13 casos de arboviroses por 100 mil habitantes, respectivamente. O IDS não foi associado ao coeficiente de detecção de arboviroses. Conclusão: Em São Luís foram identificados aglomerados espaço-temporais de risco para a ocorrência de arboviroses e a associação positiva entre o coeficiente de detecção de arboviroses e os pontos de descarte irregular de lixo.

Spatial association of homicide rate with violence, sociodemographic, and public security factors: global burden of disease study 2018 for municipalities in Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse spatial-temporal changes and spatial association of homicide rates with violence, sociodemographic, public security and human rights indicators in Brazilian municipalities. STUDY DESIGN: An ecological study using homicide estimates from the Global Burden of Disease and population from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, 2000 to 2018. The explanatory variables come from the systems of mortality, notifications of violence and security, and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. METHODS: Moran indices and maps identified clusters of high and low risk for homicides in three trienniums (p < 0.05). Multivariate linear and spatial regressions estimated explanatory factors' contributions for the last triennium. RESULTS: Municipalities with high rates of homicides (>34/100,000) doubled, reaching 21.5 %. Those rates were concentrated in big cities, and increased in smaller municipalities. Increases in critical areas were found in the Northeast and North regions: more than 40 % in the states of Sergipe, Bahia, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte and Roraima. Decreases occurred in the Southeast and Midwest regions: more than 35 % in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states. The spatial model, with an 18.9 % higher R2 (0.706), showed a positive association for records of violence, Blacks, low-level education, municipalities >50,000 inhabitants and municipalities with homicide and municipal police. CONCLUSIONS: An increase in and the interiorisation of homicide risk areas in Brazil was observed, with displacement among regions (from the Southeast to the North/Northeast). The level of violence was the main explanatory factor for homicides. Territorial space proved to be important to understand and prevent lethal crime.

Estratificação de áreas de risco de transmissão de sarampo: uma revisão sistemática / Stratification of risk areas for measles transmission: a systematic review / Estratificación de las zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión: revisión sistemática

RESUMO Objetivo. Realizar uma revisão sistemática de publicações científicas que abordaram experiências de aplicação de métodos de estratificação para definir áreas de risco de transmissão de sarampo. Métodos. Foram selecionados artigos publicados nos idiomas inglês, português e espanhol em periódicos indexados nas bases SciELO, PubMed e LILACS. A busca utilizou os descritores risk assessment AND measles, sem delimitação de período. Foram excluídos editoriais, artigos de opinião, estudos observacionais de nível individual e publicações que não tratavam da aplicação de métodos de estratificação de áreas de risco de transmissão de sarampo. As informações de ano de publicação, autoria, país de realização do estudo, objetivo, escala geográfica, método utilizado, indicadores e limitações foram extraídas por meio de formulário. Resultados. Foram selecionados 13 artigos publicados entre 2011 e 2022 em nove países das seis regiões da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS). Desses, 10 tiveram como referência a ferramenta Measles Risk Assessment Tool desenvolvida pela OMS/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Apenas um estudo adaptou a ferramenta ao contexto local. Os indicadores utilizados para a estratificação de risco enfocaram uma combinação das dimensões imunidade populacional, qualidade dos sistemas de vigilância e situação epidemiológica. Como dificuldades para a estratificação de risco, destaca-se a produção sistemática de dados com cobertura e qualidade adequadas. Conclusão. As estratégias de estratificação do risco de transmissão de sarampo parecem ser ainda pouco difundidas, especialmente na escala local. Reitera-se a necessidade de estímulo à capacitação de recursos humanos para processamento e interpretação das análises de risco nas rotinas dos serviços de vigilância.

ABSTRACT Objective. To perform a systematic review of scientific publications addressing the use of stratification methods to define risk areas for measles transmission. Method. Articles published in English, Portuguese, and Spanish in journals indexed in the SciELO, PubMed, and LILACS databases were selected. The search terms risk assessment AND measles were used without date limits. Editorials, opinion articles, individual-level observational studies, and publications that did not focus on the application of methods to stratify measles transmission risk areas were excluded. Year of publication, authorship, country where the study was performed, objective, geographic level of analysis, method used, indicators, and limitations were recorded in a data form. Results. Thirteen articles published between 2011 and 2022 in nine countries from the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions were selected. Of these, 10 referred to the Measles Risk Assessment Tool developed by the WHO/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Only one study adapted the tool to the local context. The risk stratification indicators used in the selected studies focused on a combination of the following dimensions: population immunity, quality of surveillance systems, and epidemiologic status. The systematic output of data with adequate quality and coverage was a noteworthy aspect hindering risk stratification. Conclusion. There seems to be limited dissemination of measles risk stratification strategies, especially at local levels. The need to train human resources to process and interpret risk analyses as part of the routine of surveillance services is emphasized.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Realizar una revisión sistemática de las publicaciones científicas en las que se han abordado experiencias de aplicación de métodos de estratificación para definir las zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión. Métodos. Se seleccionaron artículos publicados en español, inglés o portugués en revistas indizadas en las bases de datos SciELO, PubMed y LILACS. En la búsqueda se utilizaron los descriptores "risk assessment" y "measles", sin limitaciones en la fecha de publicación. Se excluyeron editoriales, artículos de opinión, estudios de observación de pacientes individuales y publicaciones que no tratasen de la aplicación de métodos de estratificación de zonas de riesgo de transmisión del sarampión. Se empleó un formulario para extraer la información sobre año de publicación, autoría, país de realización del estudio, objetivo, escala geográfica, método utilizado, indicadores y limitaciones. Resultados. Se seleccionaron 13 artículos publicados entre el 2011 y el 2022 en nueve países de las seis regiones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS). En 10 de ellos se utilizó como referencia la herramienta de evaluación del riesgo de sarampión creada por la OMS y los Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades de Estados Unidos. Solamente en un estudio se adaptó la herramienta al contexto local. Los indicadores utilizados para la estratificación del riesgo se basaron en una combinación de las dimensiones de inmunidad poblacional, calidad de los sistemas de vigilancia y situación epidemiológica. Entre las dificultades de la estratificación del riesgo se destaca la de generación sistemática de datos con una cobertura y calidad adecuadas. Conclusión. Las estrategias de estratificación del riesgo de transmisión del sarampión siguen sin estar, al parecer, muy extendidas, en especial a nivel local. Cabe reiterar la necesidad de fomentar la capacitación de recursos humanos para procesar e interpretar los análisis de riesgo en las operaciones habituales de los servicios de vigilancia.

Dinâmica espaço-temporal e fatores associados à mortalidade neonatal / Space-temporal dynamics and factors associated with newborn mortality / Dinámica Espacio-temporal y factores asociados a la mortalidad del recién nacido

Objetivo:analisar a distribuição espacial e temporal da mortalidade neonatal e fatores associados no Piauí de 2007 a 2017. Método: foi utilizado o método Joinpoint, estatística bayesiana e a técnica de varredura Scan. A análise multivariada dos indicadores foi realizada através do modelo Ordinary Least Squares Estimation, considerando-se p<0,05. Resultados: a mortalidade neonatal reduziu de forma linear e significativa ao longo do período estudado. As maiores taxas bayesianas variaram de 16,34 a 18,38 óbitos por 1.000 nascidos vivos, especialmente no Sudeste piauiense. Houve associação negativa entre a mortalidade neonatal e as variáveis: Taxa de analfabetismo (ß = -0,60; p= 0,027), Cobertura da Estratégia Saúde da Família (ß = -2,80; p= 0,023) e Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Municipal (ß = -0,60; p= 0,003). Conclusão: a mortalidade neonatal segue decrescente e sua distribuição no território mostrou-se irregular. Indicadores socioeconômicos e de saúde influenciam a mortalidade neonatal no Piauí

Objective: to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of neonatal mortality and associated factors in Piauí from 2007 to 2017. Method: the Joinpoint method, Bayesian statistics and the Scan technique were used. The multivariate analysis of the indicators was performed using the Ordinary Least Squares Estimation model, considering p<0.05. Results: neonatal mortality decreased linearly and significantly over the period studied. The highest Bayesian rates ranged from 16.34 to 18.38 deaths per 1,000 live births, especially in Southeast Piauí. There was a negative association between neonatal mortality and the variables: Illiteracy rate (ß = -0.60; p= 0.027), Family Health Strategy Coverage (ß = -2.80; p= 0.023) and Human Development Index Municipal (ß = -0.60; p= 0.003). Conclusion: neonatal mortality continues to decrease and its distribution in the territory proved to be irregular. Socioeconomic and health indicators influence neonatal mortality in Piauí

Objetivos: analizar la distribución espacial y temporal de la mortalidad neonatal y factores asociados en Piauí de 2007 a 2017. Método: se utilizó el método Joinpoint, la estadística bayesiana y la técnica Scan. El análisis multivariado de los indicadores se realizó mediante el modelo de Estimación por Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios, considerando p<0,05. Resultados: la mortalidad neonatal disminuyó lineal y significativamente durante el período estudiado. Las tasas bayesianas más altas oscilaron entre 16,34 y 18,38 muertes por 1.000 nacidos vivos, especialmente en el Sudeste de Piauí. Hubo asociación negativa entre la mortalidad neonatal y las variables: Tasa de Analfabetismo (ß = -0,60; p= 0,027), Cobertura de la Estrategia de Salud de la Familia (ß = -2,80; p= 0,023) e Índice de Desarrollo Humano Municipal (ß = -0,60; p= 0,003). Conclusión: la mortalidad neonatal continúa en descenso y su distribución en el territorio resultó ser irregular. Indicadores socioeconómicos y de salud influyen en la mortalidad neonatal en Piauí

Relación entre indicadores de desarrollo social y mortalidad por Diabetes Mellitus en Brasil: análisis espacial y temporal / Relationship between social development indicators and mortality due to Diabetes Mellitus in Brazil: a space-time analysis / Relação indicadores de desenvolvimento social e mortalidade por diabetes mellitus no Brasil: análise espacial e temporal

Objetivo: identificar el patrón espacial y temporal de la mortalidad por Diabetes Mellitus en Brasil y su relación con los indicadores de desarrollo social. Método: estudio ecológico y de series temporales, a nivel nacional, con base en datos secundarios del Departamento de Informática del Sistema Único de Salud, con análisis espacial y temporal e inserción de indicadores en modelos de regresión no espacial y espacial. Se realizaron: cálculo de la tasa de mortalidad general; caracterización del perfil sociodemográfico y regional de las muertes mediante análisis descriptivo y temporal; y elaboración de mapas temáticos. Resultados: en Brasil se registraron 601.521 muertes relacionadas con la Diabetes Mellitus, lo que representa una mortalidad media de 29,5/100.000 habitantes. Los estados de Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas y Sergipe, Río de Janeiro, Paraná y Rio Grande do Sul presentaron conglomerados alto-alto. Mediante el uso de modelos de regresión, se comprobó que el índice de Gini (β=11,7) y la cobertura de la Estrategia Salud de la Familia (β=3,9) fueron los indicadores que más influyeron en la mortalidad por Diabetes Mellitus en Brasil. Conclusión: la mortalidad por diabetes en Brasil tiene una tendencia general alcista, está fuertemente asociada a los lugares con peores indicadores sociales.

Objective: to identify the space-time pattern of mortality due to Diabetes Mellitus in Brazil, as well as its relationship with social development indicators. Method: an ecological and time series nationwide study based on secondary data from the Unified Health System Informatics Department, with space-time analysis and inclusion of indicators in non-spatial and spatial regression models. The following was performed: overall mortality rate calculation; characterization of the sociodemographic and regional profiles of the death cases by means of descriptive and time analysis; and elaboration of thematic maps. Results: a total of 601,521 deaths related to Diabetes Mellitus were recorded in Brazil, representing a mean mortality rate of 29.5/100,000 inhabitants. The states of Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas and Sergipe, Rio de Janeiro, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul presented high-high clusters. By using regression models, it was verified that the Gini index (β=11.7) and the Family Health Strategy coverage (β=3.9) were the indicators that most influenced mortality due to Diabetes Mellitus in Brazil. Conclusion: in Brazil, mortality due to Diabetes presents an overall increasing trend, revealing itself as strongly associated with places that have worse social indicators.

Objetivo: identificar o padrão espacial e temporal da mortalidade por diabetes mellitus, no Brasil, e sua relação com indicadores de desenvolvimento social. Método: estudo ecológico e de séries temporais, de abrangência nacional, com base em dados secundários do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde, com análise espacial e temporal e inserção de indicadores em modelos de regressão não espacial e espacial. Realizaram-se: cálculo da taxa de mortalidade geral; caracterização do perfil sociodemográfico e regional dos óbitos mediante análise descritiva e temporal; e construção de mapas temáticos. Resultados: foram registrados 601.521 óbitos relacionados ao diabetes mellitus no Brasil, representando mortalidade média de 29,5/100.000 habitantes. Os estados do Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas e Sergipe, Rio de Janeiro, Paraná e Rio Grande do Sul apresentaram aglomerados alto-alto. Por meio do uso de modelos de regressão, verificou-se que o índice Gini (β=11,7) e a cobertura da Estratégia de Saúde da Família (β=3,9) foram os indicadores que mais influenciaram a mortalidade por diabetes mellitus no Brasil. Conclusão: a mortalidade por diabetes, no Brasil, exibe tendência geral ascendente, revelando-se fortemente associada a locais com piores indicadores sociais.

Considerations for Subgroup Analyses in Cluster-Randomized Trials Based on Aggregated Individual-Level Predictors.

In research assessing the effect of an intervention or exposure, a key secondary objective often involves assessing differential effects of this intervention or exposure in subgroups of interest; this is often referred to as assessing effect modification or heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE). Observed HTE can have important implications for policy, including intervention strategies (e.g., will some patients benefit more from intervention than others?) and prioritizing resources (e.g., to reduce observed health disparities). Analysis of HTE is well understood in studies where the independent unit is an individual. In contrast, in studies where the independent unit is a cluster (e.g., a hospital or school) and a cluster-level outcome is used in the analysis, it is less well understood how to proceed if the HTE analysis of interest involves an individual-level characteristic (e.g., self-reported race) that must be aggregated at the cluster level. Through simulations, we show that only individual-level models have power to detect HTE by individual-level variables; if outcomes must be defined at the cluster level, then there is often low power to detect HTE by the corresponding aggregated variables. We illustrate the challenges inherent to this type of analysis in a study assessing the effect of an intervention on increasing COVID-19 booster vaccination rates at long-term care centers.

Temporal trend in the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil / Tendência temporal da incidência de leishmaniose visceral humana no Brasil

Abstract It is an ecological study that analyzed the time trend of visceral leishmaniasis incidence rates in Brazil using segmented time regression by joinpoints. There was a decreasing incidence rate of this disease in the country with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of -5 (CI95%: -9.1; -0.6) and a reduction of 1.69 cases/100 thousand inhabitants in 2007, and 0.91/100 thousand inhabitants in 2020. The Central-West region showed the highest reduction percent (AAPC: -9.1; CI95%: -13.8; -4.3), followed by the Southeast region (AAPC: -8.7; -14.6; -2.5). The North and South regions showed the largest number of joinpoints in the time series. The highest incidences were recorded in the male population, however, stable (AAPC: 2.14; CI95%: -8.3; 0). In the age group analysis, the trend was decreasing for the groups from 0 to 4 years old (AAPC: -7.7; CI95%: -12.6; -2.4), 5 to 9 years old (AAPC: -7.3; CI95%: -13.6; -0,4) and 10 to 14 years old (AAPC: -5.5; CI95%: -10.3; -0.3). It was found that although Visceral Leishmaniasis is an endemic disease in Brazil, there was a decrease in its incidence rate from 2007 to 2020.

Resumo Trata-se de um estudo ecológico que analisou a tendência temporal das taxas de incidência de leishmaniose visceral no Brasil mediante regressão temporal segmentada por pontos de inflexão. Observou-se tendência de decréscimo na taxa de incidência dessa patologia no país, com variação variação percentual média anual (average annual percent change - AAPC) de -5 (IC95%: -9,1; -0,6) e redução de 1,69 casos/100 mil habitantes em 2007, para 0,91/100 mil habitantes em 2020. A região Centro-Oeste apresentou a maior redução do AAPC (AAPC: -9,1; IC95%: -13,8; -4,3), seguida da região Sudeste (AAPC: -8,7; -14,6; -2,5). As regiões Norte e Sul apresentaram o maior número de pontos de inflexão (joinpoint) na série temporal. As maiores incidências foram registradas na população masculina, porém com tendência estacionária (AAPC: 2,14; IC95%: -8,3; 0). Na análise por faixa etária, a tendência foi decrescente nos grupos de 0 a 4 anos (AAPC: -7,7; IC95%: -12,6; -2,4), 5 a 9 anos (AAPC: -7,3; IC95%: -13,6; -0,4) e de 10 a 14 anos (AAPC: -5,5; IC95%: -10,3; -0,3). Verificou-se que, apesar de a leishmaniose visceral se tratar de uma doença endêmica no Brasil, houve declínio na sua taxa de incidência no período de 2007 a 2020.

[Schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases and sanitation in Latin America and the Caribbean: a systematic reviewRelación entre la prevalencia de esquistosomiasis y geohelmintiasis y las condiciones sanitarias en América Latina y el Caribe: una revisión sistemática]. / Esquistossomose, geo-helmintíases e condições sanitárias na América Latina e Caribe: uma revisão sistemática.

Objective: To investigate the relationship between the prevalence of schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis with variables related to access to water, sanitation and solid waste in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Method: A systematic review was performed in the LILACS, PubMed, Web of Science, and SciELO databases. Studies published between 1950 and August 2021, with an ecological design and a focus on population groups (states, municipalities and/or districts), having the prevalence of infection by Schistosoma mansoni, Ancylostoma sp., Necator americanus, Ascaris lumbricoides or Trichuris trichiura as primary variable and access to water, sewage and/or solid waste as explanatory variables were included. Open access articles with full text available in English, Spanish, or Portuguese were considered. The risk of bias and the quality of the studies were assessed according to the Joanna Briggs Institute manual. Results: Of 2 714 articles, nine were eligible, published between 1994 and 2021 and covering 22 LAC countries and 14 350 municipalities. All articles had moderate methodological quality. Environmental variables indicated an association between water supply and solid waste collection with schistosomiasis; water supply with ascariasis, trichuriasis and hookworm; and sewage with ascariasis and hookworm. Except for one article, which had regional coverage for LAC, all the others were developed in Brazil. Conclusion: There is a clear need to expand research on the association between household and collective health conditions and parasitic diseases for all endemic countries in LAC to support environmental strategies to control these diseases.

Objetivo: Investigar la relación entre la prevalencia de esquistosomiasis y geohelmintiasis y las variables de acceso al agua, el saneamiento y el manejo de residuos sólidos en los países de América Latina y el Caribe. Métodos: Se realizó una revisión sistemática en las bases de datos LILACS, PubMed, Web of Science y SciELO. Todos los artículos fueron de calidad metodológica moderada. Se incluyeron estudios publicados entre 1950 y agosto del 2021, con diseño ecológico y atención en agregados demográficos (estados, municipios o distritos), que tuvieran como resultado principal la prevalencia de infección por Schistosoma mansoni, Ancylostoma spp., Necator americanus, Ascaris lumbricoides o Trichuris trichiura y como variable explicativa el acceso al agua, el saneamiento y el manejo de residuos sólidos. Se analizaron artículos de texto completo y acceso libre en español, inglés o portugués. El riesgo de sesgo y la calidad de los estudios se evaluaron según las normas del manual del Instituto Joanna Briggs. Resultados: De los 2 714 artículos, hubo 9 que cumplieron con los requisitos establecidos; estos se publicaron entre 1994 y el 2021 y abarcaron 22 países y 14 350 municipios de América Latina y el Caribe. Las variables ambientales indicaron una relación del abastecimiento de agua y la recolección de residuos sólidos con la esquistosomiasis; del abastecimiento de agua con la ascariasis, la tricuriasis y la anquilostomiasis; y del saneamiento con la ascariasis y la anquilostomiasis. Con excepción de un artículo que abarcó la Región de América Latina y el Caribe, todos los demás se realizaron en Brasil. Conclusiones: Es evidente la necesidad de ampliar las investigaciones sobre la relación entre las condiciones sanitarias domésticas y colectivas y las enfermedades parasitarias en todos los países de América Latina y el Caribe donde son endémicas, con el fin de formular estrategias centradas en el medio ambiente para controlar esas enfermedades.

Diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis in Ceará state, Brazil: A flow analysis of cases between 2007 and 2021.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the flow of cases of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Ceará, Brazil, between 2007 and 2021. METHODS: An ecological study was conducted using a spatial approach of newly confirmed cases of VL recorded in the Notifiable Diseases Information System. We identified individuals whose municipality of diagnosis differed from that of their residence. Flow maps, constructed using Tabwin 32 and ArcMap 9.2, allowed for the identification of the volume of traffic between the municipality of residence and that of initial care. RESULTS: There were 6775 confirmed VL cases. As a flow indicator, 178 counties had at least one resident diagnosed in another municipality in Ceará, with 2491 VL cases and an average trip of 79 km. The largest hub for receiving cases for diagnosis was the capital Fortaleza (1478 patients from 129 other municipalities), followed by Sobral, located in the northwestern region of Ceará (599 from 55 municipalities), and Barbalha, in the southern region (171 from 29 municipalities). In this southern region, 25 municipalities moved 55 people for treatment to Juazeiro do Norte and 11 municipalities moved 39 patients to Crato. A total of 255 patients with VL from 11 municipalities in other Brazilian states, mainly from the Northeast and North, were observed and notified in health services in Ceará. CONCLUSIONS: The major centres of VL diagnosis outside residence were in the cities of Fortaleza, Sobral, Barbalha, Juazeiro do Norte and Crato. There was also an outflow of cases from other municipalities located in the northeastern and northern regions of Brazil. The flows were more intense during the first triennium of the analysis and milder from 2019 to 2021. Understanding the diagnostic flow of VL helps in decision making and the development of public policies to improve the lives of the population.

A distributional regression approach to modeling the impact of structural and intermediary social determinants on communities burdened by tuberculosis in Eastern Amazonia - Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease that is influenced by social determinants of health. However, the specific structural and intermediary determinants of TB in Eastern Amazonia remain unclear. Despite being rich in natural resources, the region faces significant challenges related to poverty, inequality, and neglected diseases. The objective of this study was to use mathematical modeling to evaluate the influence of structural and intermediary determinants of health on TB in Eastern Amazonia, Brazil. METHODS: This cross-sectional included all TB cases diagnosed and registered in the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) from 2001 to 2017. Data on social determinants were collected at the census tract level. The generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework was employed to identify the effect of social determinants on communities with a high TB prevalence. The Double Poisson distribution (DPO) was chosen, and inclusion of quadratic effects was tested. RESULTS: A total of 1730 individuals were diagnosed with TB and reported in SINAN during the analyzed period. The majority were female (59.3%), aged 31 to 59 years (47.6%), identified as blacks (67.9%), and had incomplete elementary education (46.6%). The prevalence of alcoholism was 8.6% and mental illness was 0.7%. GAMLSS analyses demonstrated that the risk of community incidence of TB is associated with the proportion of the population lacking basic sanitation, as well as with the age groups of 16-31 years and > 61 years. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the strategic utility of GAMLSS in identifying high-risk areas for TB. Models should encompass a broader range of social determinants to inform policies aimed at reducing inequality and achieving the goals of the End TB strategy.

Temporal and spatial distribution trends of polio vaccine coverage in less than one-year old children in Brazil, 2011-2021.

BACKGROUND: Low polio vaccine coverage can result in the spread of Poliovirus to areas free from viral circulation. This study analyzed the temporal trends and spatial distribution of polio vaccine coverage in one year-old children in Brazil, between 2011 and 2021. METHODS: This was an ecological, time-series study (2011 to 2021) with annual vaccine coverages against poliomyelitis, extracted from the Information System of the National Immunization Program from the 26 States and the Distrito Federal (DF). The percentage reductions in vaccination coverage in Brazil and in the Regions were calculated. Prais-Winsten regression models were used to analyze time series for the Regions and States, and spatial analysis identified the distribution of clusters (high-high; low-low; high-low and low-high) of vaccination coverages across Brazilian municipalities, using a 5% significance level. RESULTS: From 2011 to 2021, the coverage of polio vaccines decreased by 29,9%. There was a progressive increase observed in clusters resulting in low vaccination coverages (140 low-low Brazilian municipalities in 2011 vs. 403 in 2021), mostly reported in the North and Northeast regions of the country. There was a downward trend in vaccination coverages in 24 of the 26 States and DF (p ≤ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in polio vaccine coverage, as observed in the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, may favor the spread of Poliovirus. Therefore, vaccination strategies should be prioritized for children residing in areas with sharp and recurrent declines in vaccination coverages, including travelers, migrants, and refugees.

Tendencias de mortalidad neonatal por regiones de Brasil, 2015-2019: un estudio ecológico / Tendência de mortalidade neonatal por regiões do Brasil, 2015-2019: um estudo ecológico / Neonatal mortality trends by region in Brazil, 2015-2019: an ecological study

Objetivo: Analizar la tendencia de la mortalidad neonatal en Brasil de 2015 a 2019 y sus causas prevenibles. Métodos: Estudio ecológico de series temporales con datos extraídos del Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad y del Sistema de Información sobre Nacidos Vivos. Se calcularon las tasas de mortalidad neonatal general y por causas evitables. El análisis de tendencias se realizó mediante regresión de Prais-Winsten. Resultados: La tasa global de mortalidad neonatal se redujo de 8,78 en 2015 a 8,60 en 2019. Se observaron disparidades en las tasas de mortalidad neonatal entre regiones, con tasas más elevadas en las regiones septentrional (10,3/1.000) y nororiental (9,9/1.000). Predominaron las causas prevenibles mediante una atención adecuada al embarazo, el parto y los cuidados del recién nacido, que en conjunto sumaron el 97,8% de las muertes neonatales del periodo. Se observó una tendencia a la disminución de las causas prevenibles gracias a los cuidados adecuados del recién nacido (p < 0,001). Conclusión: Hubo una disminución en la tasa de mortalidad neonatal en Brasil de 2015 a 2019. (AU)

Aim: To analyze the trend of neonatal mortality in Brazil from 2015 to 2019 and its preventable causes. Methods: Ecological time-series study with data extracted from the Mortality Information System and Live Births Information System. Neonatal mortality rates were calculated overall and according to preventable causes. Trend analysis was performed by Prais-Winsten regression. Results: The overall neonatal mortality rate reduced from 8.78 in 2015 to 8.60 in 2019. Disparities in neonatal mortality rates were observed among regions, with higher rates in the northern (10.3/1,000) and northeastern (9.9/1,000) regions. The causes preventable by adequate care for pregnancy, delivery and neonatal care prevailed, together totaling 97.8% of neonatal deaths in the period. There was a decreasing trend in preventable causes due to adequate care of the newborn (p < 0.001). Conclusion: There was a decrease in the neonatal mortality rate in Brazil from 2015 to 2019. (AU)

Objetivo: Analisar a tendência de mortalidade neonatal no Brasil de 2015 a 2019 e suas causas evitáveis. Métodos: Estudo ecológico de série temporal com dados extraídos do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade e Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos. Foram calculadas as taxas de mortalidade neonatais geral e segundo causas evitáveis. A análise da tendência foi feita pela regressão de Prais-Winsten. Resultados: A taxa de mortalidade neonatal geral reduziu de 8,78 em 2015 para 8,60 em 2019. Foram observadas disparidades nas taxas de mortalidade neonatais entre as regiões, com maiores taxas nas regiões norte (10,3/1.000) e nordeste (9,9/1.000). As causas evitáveis por adequada atenção da gestação, parto e cuidado ao neonato prevaleceram, totalizando juntas 97,8% dos óbitos neonatais no período. Houve tendência decrescente nas causas evitáveis por adequada atenção ao recém-nascido (p < 0,001). Conclusão: Houve decréscimo na taxa de mortalidade neonatal no Brasil, de 2015 a 2019. (AU)