The application of fractional calculus in economic growth modelling: An approach based on regression analysis.

This paper establishes a fractional-order economic growth model to model the gross domestic product (GDP). The fractional-order model consists of a differential equation of integer and fractional orders, where the GDP is a function of several exploratory variables. An empirical application is adopted using Malaysia's GDP data from 1956 to 2018, incorporating exploratory variables such as total population, crude death rate, production of logs, gross fixed capital formation, exports of goods and services, general government final consumption expenditure, private final consumption expenditure, and the impact of investment. Extensive comparisons were carried out to evaluate the modelling performance of the full and reduced fractional-order multiple linear regression models with the benchmark models, namely full and reduced integer-order multiple linear regression models. Results indicate that the reduced fractional-order model with six exploratory variables, excluding the crude death rate and production of logs, predominates other models for the in-sample model fitting based on the Akaike information criterion, coefficient of determination and other criteria. Furthermore, the fractional-order model offers the best-of-sample forecasts evaluated based on the root mean square forecast error and mean absolute forecast error. The application of the Diebold-Mariano test also serves to confirm the superior performance of the suggested fractional-order model, revealing a significant difference in forecasting ability between the fractional-order and integer-order models.

Modeling the synergistic interplay between malaria dynamics and economic growth.

The mosquito-borne disease (malaria) imposes significant challenges on human health, healthcare systems, and economic growth/productivity in many countries. This study develops and analyzes a model to understand the interplay between malaria dynamics, economic growth, and transient events. It uncovers varied effects of malaria and economic parameters on model outcomes, highlighting the interdependence of the reproduction number (R0) on both malaria and economic factors, and a reciprocal relationship where malaria diminishes economic productivity, while higher economic output is associated with reduced malaria prevalence. This emphasizes the intricate interplay between malaria dynamics and socio-economic factors. The study offers insights into malaria control and underscores the significance of optimizing external aid allocation, especially favoring an even distribution strategy, with the most significant reduction observed in an equal monthly distribution strategy compared to longer distribution intervals. Furthermore, the study shows that controlling malaria in high mosquito biting areas with limited aid, low technology, inadequate treatment, or low economic investment is challenging. The model exhibits a backward bifurcation implying that sustainability of control and mitigation measures is essential even when R0 is slightly less than one. Additionally, there is a parameter regime for which long transients are feasible. Long transients are critical for predicting the behavior of dynamic systems and identifying factors influencing transitions; they reveal reservoirs of infection, vital for disease control. Policy recommendations for effective malaria control from the study include prioritizing sustained control measures, optimizing external aid allocation, and reducing mosquito biting.

Testing the Club Convergence Dynamics of the COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Across the OECD Countries.

Vaccines are essential to create a more resilient economic growth model. Ending the COVID-19 pandemic requires a more coordinated, effective, and equitable distribution of vaccines across the countries. Therefore, governments are in a race to increase the vaccination rates of the population. Given this backdrop, this paper focuses on the daily vaccinations per million data from March 1, 2021, to October 15, 2021, in 37 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and examines the stochastic properties of the vaccination rates. We adopt the club convergence econometric methodology to investigate the club convergence paths of COVID-19 vaccination rates in OECD regions. The results indicate a significant convergence of the vaccination rates in seven clubs across 30 OECD countries. Moreover, there are seven OECD countries demonstrate non-convergent characteristics, which raises questions about ineffective vaccine balance. In addition, the paper also discusses the potential implications for the post-COVID-19 era.