Superhydrophobic/ superoleophilic polystyrene-based porous material with superelasticity for highly efficient and continuous oil/water separation in harsh environments.

Three-dimensional separation materials with robust physical/chemical stability have great demand for effective and continuous separation of immiscible oil/water mixtures and water-in-oil emulsions, resulting from chemical leakages and discharge of industrial oily wastewaters. Herein, a superelastic polystyrene-based porous material with superhydrophobicity/superoleophilicity was designed and prepared by high internal phase emulsion polymerization to meet the aforementioned requirements. A flexible and hydrophobic aminopropyl terminated polydimethylsiloxane (NH2-PDMS-NH2) segment was introduced into the rigid styrene-divinylbenzene copolymer through 1, 4-conjugate addition reaction with trimethylolpropane triacrylate. The addition of NH2-PDMS-NH2 simultaneously improved the mechanical and hydrophobic properties of the porous material (the water contact angle from 141.2° to 152.2°). The material exhibited outstanding reversible compressibility (80% strain, even in liquid N2 environments) and superhydrophobic stability, even after being repeatedly compressed 100 times, water contact angle still remained above 150°. Meanwhile, the as-prepared material had outstanding hydrophobic stability in corrosive solutions (strong acidic, alkaline, high-salty, and even strong polar solvent), presence of mechanical interference, strong UV radiations, and high/low temperature environments. More importantly, the material could continuously and efficiently separate immiscible oil/water mixture and water-in-oil emulsions under the above conditions, showing huge potential for the large-scale remediation of complex oily wastewaters.

The effectiveness of species distribution models in predicting local abundance depends on model grain size.

The use of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict local abundance has been often proposed and contested. We tested whether SDMs at different spatiotemporal resolutions may predict the local density of 14 bird species of open/semi-open habitats. SDMs were built at 1 ha and 1 km, and with long-term versus a mix of current and long-term climatic variables. The estimated environmental suitability was used to predict local abundance obtained by means of 275 linear transects. We tested SDM ability to predict abundance for all sampled sites versus occurrence sites, using N-mixture models to account for imperfect detection. Then, we related the R2 of N-mixture models to SDM traits. Fine-grain SDMs appeared generally more robust than large-grain ones. Considering the all-transects models, for all species environmental suitability displayed a positive and highly significant effect at all the four combinations of spatial and temporal grains. When focusing only on occurrence transects, at the 1 km grain only one species showed a significant and positive effect. At the 1 ha grain, 62% of species models showed (over both climatic sets) a significant or nearly significant positive effect of environmental suitability on abundance. Grain was the only factor significantly affecting the model's explanatory power: 1 km grain led to lower amounts of variation explained by models. Our work re-opens the debate about predicting abundance using SDM-derived suitability, emphasizing the importance of grains and of spatiotemporal resolution more in general. The incorporation of local variables into SDMs at fine grains is key to predict local abundance. SDMs worked out at really fine grains, approaching the average size of territory or home range of target species, are needed to predict local abundance effectively. This may result from the fact that each single cell may represent a potential territory/home range, and hence a higher suitability over a given area means that more potential territories occur there.

Analysis of DNA Methylation Differences during the JIII Formation of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus.

DNA methylation is a pivotal process that regulates gene expression and facilitates rapid adaptation to challenging environments. The pinewood nematode (PWN; Bursaphelenchus xylophilus), the causative agent of pine wilt disease, survives at low temperatures through third-stage dispersal juvenile, making it a major pathogen for pines in Asia. To comprehend the impact of DNA methylation on the formation and environmental adaptation of third-stage dispersal juvenile, we conducted whole-genome bisulfite sequencing and transcriptional sequencing on both the third-stage dispersal juvenile and three other propagative juvenile stages of PWN. Our findings revealed that the average methylation rate of cytosine in the samples ranged from 0.89% to 0.99%. Moreover, we observed significant DNA methylation changes in the third-stage dispersal juvenile and the second-stage propagative juvenile of PWN, including differentially methylated cytosine (DMCs, n = 435) and regions (DMRs, n = 72). In the joint analysis of methylation-associated transcription, we observed that 23 genes exhibited overlap between differentially methylated regions and differential gene expression during the formation of the third-stage dispersal juvenile of PWN. Further functional analysis of these genes revealed enrichment in processes related to lipid metabolism and fatty acid synthesis. These findings emphasize the significance of DNA methylation in the development of third-stage dispersal juvenile of PWN, as it regulates transcription to enhance the probability of rapid expansion in PWN.

Using species distribution modeling to generate relative abundance information in socio-politically unstable territories: Conservation of Felidae in the central-western region of Mexico.

The distribution range and population abundance of species provide fundamental information on the species-habitat relationship required for management and conservation. Abundance inherently provides more information about the ecology of species than do occurrence data. However, information on abundance is scarce for most species, mainly at large spatial scales. The objective of this work was, therefore, to provide information regarding the population status of six wild felids inhabiting territories in Mexico that are inaccessible or politically unstable. This was done using species distribution models derived from occurrence data. We used distribution data at a continental scale for the wild felids inhabiting Mexico: jaguar (Panthera onca), bobcat (Lynx rufus), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), cougar (Puma concolor), margay (Leopardus wiedii), and jaguarundi (Herpailurus yagouaroundi) to predict environmental suitability (estimated by both Maxent and the distance to niche centroid, DNC). Suitability was then examined by relating to a capture rate-based index, in a well-monitored area in central western Mexico in order to assess their performance as proxies of relative abundance. Our results indicate that the environmental suitability patterns predicted by both algorithms were comparable. However, the strength of the relationship between the suitability and relative abundance of local populations differed across species and between algorithms, with the bobcat and DNC, respectively, having the best fit, although the relationship was not consistent in all the models. This paper presents the potential of implementing species distribution models in order to predict the relative abundance of wild felids in Mexico and offers guidance for the proper interpretation of the relationship between suitability and population abundance. The results obtained provide a robust information base on which to outline specific conservation actions and on which to examine the potential status of endangered species inhabiting remote or politically unstable territories in which on-field monitoring programs are not feasible.

Study on MICP dust suppression technology in open pit coal mine: Preparation and mechanism of microbial dust suppression material.

With the recent increases in energy demands, the dust hazards of coal mining caused by transportation, loading and unloading and other processes are becoming increasingly serious. To control dust in open pit coal mines more environmentally friendly and efficiently, and to promote the use and development of non-in situ high-yield urease microorganisms for dust suppression in coal mines, Bacillus pasteurii was selected for dust suppression experiments in this article. Additionally, the growth of microorganisms in the coal dust microenvironment was simulated, and the effect of microbial mineralization products on the calorific value of upper coal dust was further studied. Our findings indicated that Bacillus pasteurii induced dust suppression by forming a calcite precipitate with non-uniform particle size to coal dust cementation. Moreover, after a single spray, the wind erosion resistance efficiency was 84% when the wind speed was set at 10 m/s. The growth of microorganisms and urease activity in the coal dust leachate were largely equal to those in the control group, reaching a peak at approximately 24 h, that the maximum growth quantity of OD600 was about 1.5, and the maximum urease activity was 11 mmol·L-1·min-1. The difference between the peak heat release rate of mixed coal dust and pure coal was only 4.82 kW/m2, which would not affect the value of coal products. Non in-situ Bacillus pasteurii can be growth metabolized normally in the microenvironment of coal dust. Finally, the mechanism of coal dust suppression by mineralization of microbial bacterial solution to form calcium carbonate was described by a reaction equation, which is important for further application and development of microbial dust suppressants.

Microplitis manilae Ashmead (Hymenoptera: Braconidae): Biology, Systematics, and Response to Climate Change through Ecological Niche Modelling.

The parasitoid wasp Microplitis manilae Ashmead (Braconidae: Microgastrinae) is an important natural enemy of caterpillars and of a range of noctuids, including pest species of armyworms (Spodoptera spp.). Here, the wasp is redescribed and, for the first time, illustrated based on the holotype. An updated list of all the Microplitis species attacking the noctuid Spodoptera spp. along with a discussion on host-parasitoid-food plant associations is offered. Based on information about the actual distribution of M. manilae and a set of bioclimatic variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche model and the quantum geographic information system (QGIS) were explored to predict the potential distribution of this wasp in a global context. The worldwide geographical distribution of potential climatic suitability of M. manilae at present and in three different periods in the future was simulated. The relative percent contribution score of environmental factors and the Jackknife test were combined to identify dominant bioclimatic variables and their appropriate values influencing the potential distribution of M. manilae. The results showed that under current climate conditions, the prediction of the maximum entropy model highly matches the actual distribution, and that the obtained value of simulation accuracy was very high. Likewise, the distribution of M. manilae was mainly affected by five bioclimatic variables, listed in order of importance as follows: precipitation during the wettest month (BIO13), annual precipitation (BIO12), annual mean temperature (BIO1), temperature seasonality (BIO4), and mean temperature during the warmest quarter (BIO10). In a global context, the suitable habitat of M. manilae would be mainly in tropical and subtropical countries. Furthermore, under the four greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) in the future period of the 2070s, the areas with high, medium, and low suitability showed varying degrees of change from current conditions and are expected to expand in the future. This work provides theoretical backing for studies associated with the safeguarding of the environment and pest management.

New geographic record in eastern Amazon Forest and potential distribution of Amphidecta calliomma (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae).

Amphidecta calliomma is a butterfly species that occurs in Colombia, Bolivia, Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador, Panama, and Brazil (in the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Rondônia, and Pará). Here, we present a new occurrence of A. calliomma in the Carajás National Forest (Pará, eastern Amazon), expanding the known distribution of the species. We also provide species distribution model comparing the contribution of the new occurrence to species area of occurrence projections, supporting future field research. The projections reveal an expansion of area of occurrence for A. calliomma located mainly in the southeast portion of Amazon Forest. Despite its wide distribution, the small number of records of A. calliomma may indicate that the species has a low detectability in surveys. This study provides support for new surveys and reduces the knowledge gap about A. calliomma, thus supporting its conservation.

A new look at the potential role of marine plastic debris as a global vector of toxic benthic algae.

Marine plastic debris provides a significant surface area for potential colonization by planktonic and benthic harmful microalgae and for the adsorption of their toxins. Furthermore, floating plastics may substantially expand the substrate area available for benthic algae in the ocean, intensifying the transfer of potent toxins through pelagic food webs. In this study, we quantify the available surface area of micro- and macroplastics in different oceanic regions and assess the potential role of floating plastics as vectors for the transfer of toxins from three widespread benthic dinoflagellates, Gambierdiscus spp., Ostreopsis cf. ovata and Prorocentrum lima. To avoid bias associated to the occurrence of benthic algae in deep waters, we selected only records from 0 to 100 m depths. We estimate that 26.8 × 1010 cm2 of plastic surface area is potentially available in surface waters of the global ocean, mostly in the size range of large microplastics (1.01-4.75 mm). Based on the distribution of floating plastics and the habitat suitability of the selected microalgal species, the plastic relative colonization risks will be greater in the Mediterranean Sea and in the subtropical and temperate western margins of the oceans, such as the North American and Asian eastern coasts and, to a lesser extent, southern Brazil and Australia. In places where the colonization of O. cf. ovata cells on floating plastic debris has been properly quantified, such as the Mediterranean and southern Brazil, we estimate a colonization potential of up to 2 × 106 cells km-2 of ocean surface during the regular occurrence period and up to 1.7 × 108 cells km-2 during massive blooms of this species. As plastic pollution and harmful benthic algal blooms have both increased substantially over the past decades, we suggest that their interactive effects can become a major and novel threat to marine ecosystems and human health.

Invasiveness risks of naked goby, Gobiosoma bosc, to North Sea transitional waters.

In recent decades, gobies have dispersed or introduced from the Ponto-Caspian region of eastern Europe in a westerly direction to North American and western European waters. By contrast, the naked goby, Gobiosoma bosc, is the only known gobiid species to have been introduced in an easterly direction from North American to western Europe. The potential invasiveness of G. bosc was assessed using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS-ISK) for rivers and transitional waters for the western and eastern sides of the North Sea. Using globally-derived thresholds, G. bosc was assessed as low-medium invasiveness risk for both sides of the North Sea under current climate conditions. Under future climate conditions, potential invasiveness will increase for both risk assessment areas. Environmental suitability assessment indicated an increase in environmental suitability for G. bosc on the eastern coastline of the North Sea under climate change scenarios and suitability remained unchanged on the western coastline, reflecting the authors' expectations of invasiveness risk.

The current and future risk of spread of Leptotrombidium deliense and Leptotrombidium scutellare in mainland China.

BACKGROUND: The chigger mites Leptotrombidium deliense (L. deliense) and Leptotrombidium scutellare (L. scutellare) are two main vectors of mite-borne diseases in China. However, the associated environmental risk factors are poorly understood, and the potential geographic ranges of the two mite species are unknown. METHODS: We combined an ensemble boosted regression tree modelling framework with contemporary records of mites and multiple environmental factors to explore the effects of environmental variables on both mites, as well as to predict the current and future environmental suitability distributions of both species. Additionally, the human population living in the potential spread risk zones of each species was also estimated across mainland China. RESULTS: Our results indicated that climate, land cover, and elevation are significantly associated with the spatial distributions of the two mite species. The current environmental suitability distribution of L. deliense is mainly concentrated in southern China, and that of L. scutellare is mainly distributed in southern and eastern coastal areas. With climate warming, the geographical distribution of the two mites generally tends to expand to the north and northwest. In addition, we estimated that 305.1-447.6 and 398.3-430.7 million people will inhabit the future spread risk zones of L. deliense and L. scutellare, respectively, in mainland China. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide novel insights into understanding the current and future risks of spread of these two mite species and highlight the target zones for helping public health authorities better prepare for and respond to future changes in mite-borne disease risk.

Effects of Climatic Change on the Potential Distribution of Lycoriella Species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of Economic Importance.

Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g., mushrooms, strawberries, and nurseries). The current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade areas in countries across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the distribution of these three species of Lycoriella. Stable environmental suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted in key countries (e.g., USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.

Towards New Horizons: Climate Trends in Europe Increase the Environmental Suitability for Permanent Populations of Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae).

Ticks and tick-borne pathogens are changing their current distribution, presumably due to the impact of the climate trends. On a large scale, these trends are changing the environmental suitability of Hyalomma marginatum, the main vector of several pathogens affecting human health. We generated annual models of environmental suitability for the tick in the period 1970-2018, using harmonic regression-derived data of the daily maximum and minimum temperature, soil moisture and water vapor deficit. The results demonstrate an expansion of the suitable area in Mediterranean countries, southeast central Europe and south of the Balkans. Also, the models allowed us to interpret the impact of the ecological variables on these changes. We deduced that (i) maximum temperature was significant for all of the biogeographical categories, (ii) soil humidity has an influence in the Mediterranean climate areas, and (iii) the minimum temperature and deficit water vapor did not influence the environmental suitability of the species. The conclusions clearly show that climate change could create new areas in Europe with suitable climates for H. marginatum, while keeping its "historical" distribution in the Mediterranean. Therefore, it is necessary to further explore possible risk areas for H. marginatum and its associated pathogens.

Informing Rift Valley Fever preparedness by mapping seasonally varying environmental suitability.

BACKGROUND: Rift Valley Fever (RVF) poses a threat to human and animal health throughout much of Africa and the Middle East and has been recognized as a global health security priority and a key preparedness target. METHODS: We combined RVF occurrence data from a systematic literature review with animal notification data from an online database. Using boosted regression trees, we made monthly environmental suitability predictions from January 1995 to December 2016 at a 5 × 5-km resolution throughout regions of Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. We calculated the average number of months per year suitable for transmission, the mean suitability for each calendar month, and the "spillover potential," a measure incorporating suitability with human and livestock populations. RESULTS: Several countries where cases have not yet been reported are suitable for RVF. Areas across the region of interest are suitable for transmission at different times of the year, and some areas are suitable for multiple seasons each year. Spillover potential results show areas within countries where high populations of humans and livestock are at risk for much of the year. CONCLUSIONS: The widespread environmental suitability of RVF highlights the need for increased preparedness, even in countries that have not previously experienced cases. These maps can aid in prioritizing long-term RVF preparedness activities and determining optimal times for recurring preparedness activities. Given an outbreak, our results can highlight areas often at risk for subsequent transmission that month, enabling decision-makers to target responses effectively.

Ecological Niche Modeling to Calculate Ideal Sites to Introduce a Natural Enemy: The Case of Apanteles opuntiarum (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) to Control Cactoblastis cactorum (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in North America.

The cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum (Berg) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), is an invasive species in North America where it threatens Opuntia native populations. The insect is expanding its distribution along the United States Gulf Coast. In the search for alternative strategies to reduce its impact, the introduction of a natural enemy, Apanteles opuntiarum Martínez and Berta (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), is being pursued as a biological control option. To identify promising areas to intentionally introduce A. opuntiarum for the control of C. cactorum, we estimated the overlap of fundamental ecological niches of the two species to predict their common geographic distributions using the BAM diagram. Models were based on native distributional data for both species, 19 bioclimatic variables, and the Maxent algorithm to calculate the environmental suitability of both species in North America. The environmental suitability of C. cactorum in North America was projected from Florida to Texas (United States) along the Gulf coastal areas, reaching Mexico in northern regions. Apanteles opuntiarum environmental suitability showed a substantial similarity with the calculations for C. cactorum in the United States. Intentional introductions of A. opuntiarum in the actual distribution areas of the cactus moth are predicted to be successful; A. opuntiarum will find its host in an environment conducive to its survival and dispersal.

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

The Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses are arboviruses predominantly transmitted to humans through the bite of the female mosquito Aedes aegypti. Currently, the vector represents a potential epidemiological risk in several Latin American and Pacific countries. However, little is known about the geographical distribution and bioclimatic suitability of this mosquito in the projected climate change scenarios in Colombia. Using a species distribution model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) based on presence-only records obtained from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), land elevation obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), we produced environmental suitability maps of this mosquito vector for present and future geographic distribution. The future distribution were constructed based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the years 2050 and 2070, projected according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the current conditions, Colombia has ~140,612.8 square km of areas with the possible presence of the vector; however, for the future, this will be reduced by more than 30%. For the future conditions, the suitable areas for A. aegypti decreased compared to the present, mainly for the year 2070 under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, however, the probability of mosquito occurrence increases in some departments of Colombia. Areas susceptible to the presence of A. aegypti are affected by climate change. The Caribbean and Andean regions have a high probability of mosquito distribution; therefore, control and epidemiological surveillance are required in these areas. The results can serve as an input to define preventive and control measures, especially in areas with a higher risk of contracting the virus.

Projected climate changes are expected to decrease the suitability and production of olive varieties in southern Spain.

World olive production is based on the cultivation of different varieties that respond differently to abiotic factors. Climate change may affect the area of land suitable for olive cultivation and change production levels, thus causing serious damage to this economically-relevant and highly-productive olive grove agroecosystem. In Mediterranean regions such as Andalusia, one of the main areas of olive production, the effect of climate change seems threatening. Thus, our main aims are: (1) to examine the abiotic factors that characterise the current cultivated locations and predict the current and potential distribution of these locations; (2) to evaluate the effect of climate change (based on regional scenarios) on the future environmental suitability of each olive variety; and (3) to analyse the expected alteration in the annual olive production. We used the seven most-productive olive varieties in Andalusia and the wild olive species to develop Species Distribution Models (SDMs), coupled with soil properties, geomorphology, water balance and (bio-)climatic predictors at a fine scale. We also derived future climate projections to assess the effect of climate change on the environmental suitability and productivity of each olive variety. We found that soil pH was the most-important factor for most distribution models, while (bio-)climatic predictors - such as continentality index, summer and autumn precipitation and winter temperature - provided important contributions. In general, projections based on regional climate change scenarios point to a decrease in the area suitable for olive crops in Andalusia, due to an increase in evapotranspiration and a decrease in precipitation. These changes in suitable area are also projected to decrease olive production for almost all the olive-growing provinces investigated. Our findings may anticipate the effects of climate change on olive crops and provide early estimates of fruit production, at local and regional scales, as well as forming the basis of adaptation strategies.

Predicting environmental suitability and geographical distribution of Dicrocoelium dendriticum at littoral of Caspian Sea: An ecological niche-based modeling.

Dicrocoeliasisis caused by the small liver fluke (Dicrocoelium spp.), mainly Dicrocoelium dendriticum in domestic and wild ruminants. The small liver fluke is the probable predisposing cause of economic burden. The impact of geographic and climatic factors on the incidence of dicrocoeliasis has been severely ignored in different geographical areas. Due to the lack of data regarding dicrocoeliasis in Iran, this study was aimed to investigate the prevalence and intensity of ovine and bovine Dicrocoelium infection in the coastal strip south of the Caspian Sea. Fecal samples were obtained from the cattle and sheep in three provinces of Guilan, Mazandaran and Golestan at the littoral of the Caspian Sea. All collected samples were then tested by flotation methods for determining the number of eggs per gram of feces (EPG). Moreover, we applied maximum entropy niche-based modeling (MaxEnt), coupled with remote sensing and the Geographical Information System (GIS) to visualize the spatial distribution and risk factors of Dicrocoelium dendriticum at the littoral of Caspian Sea. A total of 2688 stool samples were collected from cattle (n = 1344) and sheep (n = 1344) in coastal provinces of the Caspian Sea including Guilan (n = 1280), Mazandaran (n = 768) and Golestan (n = 640) provinces. Based on the data presented here, the highest rate of infection was observed in Guilan and Mazandaran provinces. The results revealed the prevalence rates of 36.72% and 6.09% for sheep and cattle in Guilan province, respectively. This rate was 22.4% for sheep and 3.91% for cattle in Mazandaran province. However, the rate of sheep infection was 90% in some point locations. Dicrocoelium infection was found to be significantly different between three provinces in sheep (P < 0.00001, Chi = 111.633). Our findings exhibited a high reliability of the MaxEnt model, and area under the curve (AUC) values of the training and test data sets were determined to be 0.852 and 0.818, respectively. Jackknife analysis showed the relative variable contribution to the model performance, where four variables were found as key influential factors that highly affected the habitat suitability of the presence of the lancet fluke including the precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), altitude, temperature seasonality (Bio4), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14). The findings of this study demonstrated a high presence rate of Dicrocoelium infection at the littoral of Caspian Sea, Iran. Moreover, climatic variables can be considered as important predictive factors affecting the distribution of infection in the studied areas. Further studies based on the findings of the GIS are also very important in the country for planning control programs.

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States.

The mosquitoes Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.)(Diptera:Culicidae) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera:Culicidae) transmit dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses and represent a growing public health threat in parts of the United States where they are established. To complement existing mosquito presence records based on discontinuous, non-systematic surveillance efforts, we developed county-scale environmental suitability maps for both species using maximum entropy modeling to fit climatic variables to county presence records from 1960-2016 in the contiguous United States. The predictive models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus had an overall accuracy of 0.84 and 0.85, respectively. Cumulative growing degree days (GDDs) during the winter months, an indicator of overall warmth, was the most important predictive variable for both species and was positively associated with environmental suitability. The number (percentage) of counties classified as environmentally suitable, based on models with 90 or 99% sensitivity, ranged from 1,443 (46%) to 2,209 (71%) for Ae. aegypti and from 1,726 (55%) to 2,329 (75%) for Ae. albopictus. Increasing model sensitivity results in more counties classified as suitable, at least for summer survival, from which there are no mosquito records. We anticipate that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus will be found more commonly in counties classified as suitable based on the lower 90% sensitivity threshold compared with the higher 99% threshold. Counties predicted suitable with 90% sensitivity should therefore be a top priority for expanded mosquito surveillance efforts while still keeping in mind that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus may be introduced, via accidental transport of eggs or immatures, and potentially proliferate during the warmest part of the year anywhere within the geographic areas delineated by the 99% sensitivity model.

Environmental suitability for Lutzomyia longipalpis in a subtropical city with a recently established visceral leishmaniasis transmission cycle, Argentina

BACKGROUND Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an endemic disease in northeastern Argentina including the Corrientes province, where the presence of the vector and canine cases of VL were recently confirmed in December 2008. OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to assess the modelling of micro- and macro-habitat variables to evaluate the urban environmental suitability for the spatial distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis presence and abundance in an urban scenario. METHODS Sampling of 45 sites distributed throughout Corrientes city (Argentina) was carried out using REDILA-BL minilight traps in December 2013. The sampled specimens were identified according to methods described by Galati (2003). The analysis of variables derived from the processing of satellite images (macro-habitat variables) and from the entomological sampling and surveys (micro-habitat variables) was performed using the statistical software R. Three generalised linear models were constructed composed of micro- and macro-habitat variables to explain the spatial distribution of the abundance of Lu. longipalpis and one composed of micro-habitat variables to explain the occurrence of the vector. FINDINGS A total of 609 phlebotominae belonging to five species were collected, of which 56% were Lu. longipalpis. In addition, the presence of Nyssomyia neivai and Migonemya migonei, which are vectors of tegumentary leishmaniasis, were also documented and represented 34.81% and 6.74% of the collections, respectively. The explanatory variable normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) described the abundance distribution, whereas the presence of farmyard animals was important for explaining both the abundance and the occurrence of the vector. MAIN CONCLUSIONS The results contribute to the identification of variables that can be used to establish priority areas for entomological surveillance and provide an efficient transfer tool for the control and prevention of vector-borne diseases.

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.