Using the Preparation Phase of the Multiphase Optimization Strategy to Design an Antiextremism Program in Bahrain: Formative and Pilot Research.

BACKGROUND: Extremism continues to raise concerns about conflict and violent attacks that can lead to deaths, injuries, trauma, and stress. Adolescents are especially vulnerable to radicalization by extremists. Given its location in a region that often experiences extremism, Bahrain developed 4 peaceful coexistence lessons and 4 antiextremism lessons to be implemented as part of their Drug Abuse Resistance Education (D.A.R.E.) program. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to report the results of the preparation phase of the multiphase optimization strategy (MOST) to develop a peaceful coexistence program and an antiextremism program implemented by D.A.R.E. officers in Bahrain. METHODS: We developed conceptual models for the peaceful coexistence and antiextremism programs, indicating which mediators each lesson should target, the proximal outcomes that should be shaped by these mediators, and the distal and ultimate outcomes that the intervention should change. We recruited 20 middle schools to pilot test our research protocol, survey measures, and the existing intervention lessons. A total of 854 seventh and ninth grade students completed a pretest survey, 4 peaceful coexistence intervention lessons, and an immediate posttest survey; and a total of 495 ninth grade students completed the pretest survey, 4 antiextremism lessons, and an immediate posttest survey. A series of 3-level models, nesting students within classrooms within schools, tested mean differences from pretest to posttest. RESULTS: Pilot test results indicated that most measures had adequate reliability and provided promising evidence that the existing lessons could change some of the targeted mediators and proximal outcomes. Specifically, students who completed the peaceful coexistence lessons reported significant changes in 5 targeted mediating variables (eg, injunctive norms about intolerance, P<.001) and 3 proximal outcomes [eg, social skills empathy (P=.008); tolerance beliefs (P=.041)]. Students who completed the antiextremism lessons reported significant changes in 3 targeted mediators [eg, self-efficacy to use resistance skills themselves (P<.001)], and 1 proximal outcome (ie, social skills empathy, P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: An effective antiextremism program has the potential to protect youth from radicalization and increase peaceful coexistence. We used the preparation phase of MOST to (1) develop a conceptual model, (2) identify the 4 lessons in each program as the components we will evaluate in the optimization phase of MOST, (3) pilot test the existing lessons, our newly developed measures, and research protocol, and (4) determine that our optimization objective will be all effective components. We will use these results to revise the existing lessons and conduct optimization trials to evaluate the efficacy of the individual lessons.

Single-year change in views of democracy and society and support for political violence in the USA: findings from a 2023 nationally representative survey.

BACKGROUND: A 2022 survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, of beliefs associated with such violence, and of belief that civil war was likely in the near future. It is important to determine the durability of those findings. METHODS: Wave 2 of a nationally representative cohort survey was conducted May 18-June 8, 2023; the sample comprised all respondents to 2022's Wave 1. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions; changes from 2022 to 2023 are for respondents who participated in both surveys, based on aggregated individual change scores. RESULTS: The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. After weighting, 50.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.4%, 52.1%) were female; weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (25.9) years. About 1 in 20 respondents (5.7%, 95% CI 5.1%, 6.4%) agreed strongly/very strongly that "in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States," a 7.7% decrease. In 2023, fewer respondents considered violence to be usually/always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives [25.3% (95% CI 24.7%, 26.5%), a 6.8% decrease]. However, more respondents thought it very/extremely likely that within the next few years, in a situation where they consider political violence justified, "I will be armed with a gun" [9.0% (95% CI 8.3%, 9.8%), a 2.2% increase] and "I will shoot someone with a gun" [1.8% (95% CI 1.4%, 2.2%), a 0.6% increase]. Among respondents who considered violence usually/always justified to advance at least 1 political objective, about 1 in 20 also thought it very/extremely likely that they would threaten someone with a gun (5.4%, 95% CI 4.0%, 7.0%) or shoot someone (5.7%, 95% CI 4.3%, 7.1%) to advance such an objective. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, support for political violence declined from 2022 to 2023, but predictions of firearm use in political violence increased. These findings can help guide prevention efforts, which are urgently needed.

Supporting Women and Children Returning from Violent Extremist Contexts: Proposing a 5R Framework to Inform Program and Policy Development.

Women and children returning from areas formerly controlled by the Islamic State typically have experienced high levels of trauma and indoctrination, further complicating politically fraught efforts at reintegration and resettlement. Consequently, countries around the world are grappling with how best to manage the return of these women and children. To help better understand which types of programming can contribute to the successful, non-violent reintegration of these individuals, we incorporated ideas from existing Repatriation and Rehabilitation (R&R) literature, field practitioners, R&R subject matter experts, and literature from adjacent fields (e.g., refugee resettlement, criminal justice, psychological resilience) into a recommended best practice approach to supporting returning women and children. We propose a shift from "R&R" programming to what we call the "5R" framework: Repatriation/ Resettlement, Reintegration, Rehabilitation, and Resilience. This shift provides conceptual clarity related to how different program elements target proximal goals (e.g., wellbeing and personal safety, belonging and opportunity, non-violence, and dignity), and how programming can shift from more centrally- and government-held services to informal and community-based supports.

Rehabilitation and Reintegration of Women and Children Returning from Violent Extremist Contexts: A Rapid Review to Inform Program and Policy Development.

This rapid review used a systematic approach to examine the available literature on rehabilitation and reintegration (R&R) programs for women and children returning from contexts of violent extremism, examining common assumptions, inputs, activities and outcomes across diverse settings. Fifty-one documents including peer reviewed articles and grey literature were included in the analysis. The most common program activities identified included mental health services, community level social programs, promoting school and vocational enrollment, regular health services, and parenting training & education, though there was a lack of consensus around core program components. The analysis points to the need for a robust set of inputs and resources to implement R&R programs including government officials, child welfare, mental health professionals, teachers, law enforcement, healthcare, community leaders, and extended family. The review also uncovered a number of gaps. This includes the need to create clear and analytically distinct definitions of rehabilitation and reintegration that are applicable and relevant to key stakeholders, delineating age-appropriate activities and outcomes for young children, youth, and adults, defining frameworks for service delivery and coordination of stakeholders, and placing R&R programs within existing domains of public safety and restorative justice.

The absorption-addiction model of celebrity worship: in search of a broader theoretical foundation.

BACKGROUND: A large body of evidence suggests that some people have a strong, obsessive attachment to a favorite celebrity. The absorption-addiction model attempts to account for this extreme attachment, sometimes labeled "celebrity worship." According to the model, a small portion of celebrity admirers ("celebrity worshipers") become absorbed in the personal lives of celebrities to compensate for perceived personal or social deficiencies. The purpose of this study is to examine how the absorption-addiction model relates to broader psychological theories that include non-celebrity contexts. Specifically, we examine how the absorption-addiction model relates to three theories: empty-self theory, extremism theory, and the dualistic model of passion. METHODS: Participants (N = 399; 77.94% women, Mage = 19.91 years, SD = 3.24) completed an online questionnaire measuring attraction to favorite celebrities. Constructs representing the three broader theories were compared to a measure of attraction to one's favorite celebrity. RESULTS: Sense of emptiness, obsessive passion, and extremism were positively associated with celebrity attraction. The strongest association was found with extremism, though the effect was moderate. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that extremism theory is the best fit of the three broader theories explaining celebrity worship, although its contribution to understanding celebrity worship is modest.

From Envy to Radicalization.

Models of radicalization have typically placed grievances at the heart of radicalization. In contrast, we argue that viewing the radicalizing agent as decidedly proactive, and less reactive, better accounts for the available data. At the core of our radicalization model is the functional structure of envy. The operative properties of the emotion align with essential and conspicuous features of the radicalization process: a motivation to monitor social differentials, an identification of sources of postulated welfare costs, an impulse to eliminate or depower purported competitors, an attempt to diffuse responsibility for one's aggressive actions, and the rejoicing at the envied agent's misfortune. Two of those operative properties are particularly important for our understanding of radicalization. Envy motivates the neutralization of competitors when responsibility for welfare costs is not objectively attributable to others' wrongdoing toward the party who feels injured. The "process of typification" serves as a means to diffuse responsibility. It extends the reach of individual concerns by downplaying the particulars of the personal situation motivating the envious agent while evoking universally shared interaction templates (e.g., humiliation, injustice) to appeal to a broader audience.

Causally estimating the effect of YouTube's recommender system using counterfactual bots.

In recent years, critics of online platforms have raised concerns about the ability of recommendation algorithms to amplify problematic content, with potentially radicalizing consequences. However, attempts to evaluate the effect of recommenders have suffered from a lack of appropriate counterfactuals-what a user would have viewed in the absence of algorithmic recommendations-and hence cannot disentangle the effects of the algorithm from a user's intentions. Here we propose a method that we call "counterfactual bots" to causally estimate the role of algorithmic recommendations on the consumption of highly partisan content on YouTube. By comparing bots that replicate real users' consumption patterns with "counterfactual" bots that follow rule-based trajectories, we show that, on average, relying exclusively on the YouTube recommender results in less partisan consumption, where the effect is most pronounced for heavy partisan consumers. Following a similar method, we also show that if partisan consumers switch to moderate content, YouTube's sidebar recommender "forgets" their partisan preference within roughly 30 videos regardless of their prior history, while homepage recommendations shift more gradually toward moderate content. Overall, our findings indicate that, at least since the algorithm changes that YouTube implemented in 2019, individual consumption patterns mostly reflect individual preferences, where algorithmic recommendations play, if anything, a moderating role.

Between victory and peace: Unravelling the paradox of hope in intractable conflicts.

Previous research on group-based hope has predominantly focused on positive intergroup outcomes, such as peace and harmony. In this paper, we demonstrate that hope experienced towards group-centric political outcomes, such as a victory in a conflict and defeating the enemy, can be detrimental to peace. In Study 1, conducted among Israeli Jews, hope for victory over the Palestinians was uniquely associated with more support for extreme war policies, whereas hope for peace generally showed the opposite associations. In Study 2, we replicated these results among Muslim Pakistanis regarding the Pakistan-India dispute. Notably, in both Studies 1 and 2, only hope for victory significantly predicted personal violent extremist intentions. In Study 3, conducted with a representative sample of Israeli Jews, we found three latent profiles of hope: victory hopers, peace hopers, and dual hopers (hoping for both peace and victory). Finally, in preregistered Study 4, we longitudinally investigated how hopes for victory and peace changed from a relatively calm period in 2021 to the Israel-Hamas War of 2023, utilizing a Bivariate Latent Change Score analysis. Increases in hope for victory during the highly intense war explained the increase in support for violence. We discuss implications, limitations, and directions for future research.

Extremism, knowledge, and overconfidence in the covid-19 restriction times.

Public response to restriction policy against the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) can polarize into two extremes: one absolutely in favor of restrictions for the sake of human life and health, and other absolutely against the restrictions for the sake of human rights and daily life. This study examines psychological nature of extremism regarding individuals' self-restraint from social behavior, which was and has been encouraged by the Japanese government as restriction measures, as well as possible measures to mitigate this extremism. We hypothesize that people with more extreme views on self-restraint tend to have less knowledge of this virus, and, nevertheless, tend to be more overconfident in the sense that they falsely believe they understand COVID-19 and the effects of self-restraint. It is also postulated that overconfidence can be reduced by asking them to explain how self-restraint works. To test these hypotheses, we conducted an online experiment on the Japanese adults (n = 500) to measure the extent of their knowledge of COVID-19 and to examine the effect of explanation task on their understanding regarding COVID-19 and extremism. The results indicate that the extreme attitudes were associated with insufficient knowledge about the symptoms, risks, and characteristics of COVID-19. Moreover, their extreme attitudes tended to moderate through this experimental study to an extent that they realized they did not understand COVID-19 including the effects of self-restraint. This suggests that people with extremism may have been overconfident in their own understanding of the COVID-19 restrictions.

Autism spectrum disorder, extremism and risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: To date, there is no evidence supporting the existence of an association between Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and extremism in the general population. However, there is increasing recognition that several features of ASD may provide the context of vulnerability to engage in extremist behaviour. AIMS: This paper sets out the case for a dedicated clinical approach to better integrate clinical risk appraisal processes with an assessment of ASD individuals' vulnerabilities within the Criminal Justice System. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this paper the Framework for the Assessment of Risk & Protection in Offenders on the Autistic Spectrum (FARAS): A Guide for Risk Assessors Working with Offenders on the Autistic Spectrum is explored. In developing the FARAS, Al-Attar proposed seven facets of ASD that 'may have different functional links with push and pull factors to terrorism' (p. 928), which include circumscribed interests; rich vivid fantasy and impaired social imagination; need for order, rules, rituals, routine and predictability; obsessionality, repetition and collecting; social interaction and communication difficulties; cognitive styles and Sensory processing. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: We describe the FARAS within the context of the most widely used clinical risk appraisal 'aide memoire' instruments integral to the Structured Professional Judgement of risk process, namely the HCR20v3.

Children of extremist parents: Insights from a specialized clinical team.

BACKGROUND: Data on children who grow up with parents adhering to violent extremism is scant. This makes it extremely delicate to inform policies and clinical services to protect such children from potential physical and psychological harm. OBJECTIVE: This paper explores the predicament of children whose caretakers were referred to a specialized clinical team in Montreal (Canada) because of concerns about risks or actual involvement in violent extremism processes. METHODS: This paper uses a mixed methods concurrent triangulation design. Quantitative data was obtained through a file review (2016-2020). Qualitative data was collected through semi-structured interviews and a focus group with the team practitioners. RESULTS: Clinicians reported the presence of stereotypes in the health and social services network frequently representing religious extremist parents as potentially dangerous or having inappropriate parenting skills while minimizing the perception of risk for parents adhering to political extremism. Children displayed high levels of psychological distress, mainly related to family separation, parental psychopathology, and conflicts of loyalty stemming from familial or social alienation. CONCLUSIONS: Training practitioners to be aware of their own personal and institutional bias may help them to understand the predicament of extremist parents' children and implement systemic, trauma and attachment informed interventions.

Significance Quest: A Meta-Analysis on the Association Between the Variables of the 3N Model and Violent Extremism.

Given the pervasiveness of violent extremism all over the globe, understanding its psychological underpinnings is key in the fight against it. According to the Significance Quest Theory and its 3N model, violent extremism (i.e., violent and deviant behavior) is a function of three elements: need, narrative, and network. In the present meta-analysis, to put into test the theory and its model, we aimed to establish the strength of the association between these three elements, as well as the quest for significance itself, and violent extremism; and investigate if these associations are influenced by methodological decisions (i.e., sampling and measurements/manipulations). A literature search was performed through electronic platforms, a call for unpublished or in-press data, and backward snowballing. Seventeen reports, comprising 42 studies, met full inclusion criteria: quantitative studies based on primary data assessing for the association of at least one of the 3Ns, or quest for significance, and violent extremism, and providing sufficient data for effect size extraction. Findings are reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses(PRISMA) guidelines. Random-effect meta-analyses rendered statistically significant pooled effect sizes in all the investigated associations. The association is strong for quest for significance, moderate for narrative and network, and low for need for significance. Subgroup analyses demonstrate that the detection of these associations is influenced by methodological decisions concerning the measurements and manipulations, but not by those concerning the sampling. We discuss these findings and suggest future research directions aiming to improve the predictive power of the theory and its model.

Misogynistic Extremism: A Scoping Review.

In recent years, the concept of "misogynistic extremism" has emerged as a subject of interest among scholars, governments, law enforcement personnel, and the media. Yet a consistent understanding of how misogynistic extremism is defined and conceptualized has not yet emerged. Varying epistemological orientations may contribute to the current conceptual muddle of this topic, reflecting long-standing and on-going challenges with the conceptualization of its individual components. To address the potential impact of misogynistic extremism (i.e., violent attacks), a more precise understanding of what this phenomenon entails is needed. To summarize the existing knowledge base on the nature of misogynistic extremism, this scoping review analyzed publications within English-language peer-reviewed and gray literature sources. Seven electronic databases and citation indexes were systematically searched using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for scoping reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist and charted using the 2020 PRISMA flow diagram. Inclusion criteria included English peer-reviewed articles and relevant gray literature publications, which contained the term "misogynistic extremism" and other closely related terms. No date restrictions were imposed. The search strategy initially yielded 475 publications. After exclusion of ineligible articles, 40 publications remained for synthesis. We found that misogynistic extremism is most frequently conceptualized in the context of misogynistic incels, male supremacism, far-right extremism, terrorism, and the black pill ideology. Policy recommendations include increased education among law enforcement and Countering and Preventing Violent Extremism experts on male supremacist violence and encouraging legal and educational mechanisms to bolster gender equality. Violence stemming from misogynistic worldviews must be addressed by directly acknowledging and challenging socially embedded systems of oppression such as white supremacy and cisheteropatriarchy.

'Only My Truth Can Save Us All': The Impact of Socioeconomic Threat and its Emotional Appraisals on the Monopoly on Truth and Political Extremism / 'Sólo mi Verdad Puede Salvarnos': Impacto de la Amenaza Socioeconómica y su Evaluación Emocional sobre el Monopolio de la Verdad y el Extremismo Político

Background: Political extremism is one of the main threats to democratic societies and it has been related to socioeconomic threats like COVID-19. We argue that socioeconomic threat perceptions increase Monopoly on Truth (MoT), a tendency to conceive personal values as undeniable truths that are worthy of being imposed. MoT will then prompt a rise in extremist intentions. Method: These hypotheses were tested in two experimental designs (N = 274 & 484). Study 1 manipulated socioeconomic threat, while Study 2 added a manipulation of the emotional appraisal of that threat. Results: In Study 1, MoT scores were significantly different and higher in the high-threat condition. In Study 2, threat levels did not cause statistically significant differences when emotional appraisal of the threat was manipulated, with anger causing MoT to increase. Study 2 also showed that MoT works as a precursor of extremist intentions. Conclusions: Socioeconomic threats and their emotional appraisals raise MoT and, indirectly, extremism. Beyond deepening our understanding of the causes of MoT, the current findings highlight the implications of different narratives framing socioeconomic crises that may become a facilitating factor of extremism.(AU)

Antecedentes: El extremismo político constituye una de las principales amenazas para las sociedades democráticas, y se ha relacionado con amenazas socioeconómicas como la COVID-19. Argumentamos que las percepciones de amenaza incrementan el Monopolio de la Verdad (MdV), una concepción de los valores personales como verdades innegables dignas de imponerse. El MdV provocaría además un aumento de las intenciones extremistas. Método: Se realizaron dos estudios experimentales (N = 274 y 484). En el Estudio 1 se manipuló la amenaza socioeconómica. El Estudio 2 añadió una manipulación de la evaluación emocional de dicha amenaza. Resultados: En el Estudio 1, las puntuaciones de MdV difirieron de forma estadísticamente significativa, siendo más altas en la condición de alta amenaza. En el Estudio 2 se observó que los niveles de amenaza no causaron diferencias estadísticamente significativas en MdV al manipular la evaluación emocional. La ira sí causó diferencias estadísticamente significativas en MdV. El Estudio 2 mostró que el MdV funciona como antecedente de intenciones extremistas. Conclusiones: Las amenazas socioeconómicas y su evaluación emocional provocan un aumento del MdV e, indirectamente, del extremismo. Además, nuestros hallazgos destacan la relevancia de las diferentes narrativas que enmarcan las amenazas, las cuales pueden llegar a fomentar el extremismo.(AU)

What Drives Counter-Extremism? The Extent of P/CVE Policies in the West and Their Structural Correlates.

Counter-extremism (P/CVE) policies have shot to global prominence rapidly, yet there are large discrepancies in their implementation both between, and inside, countries. In this paper, we construct and present a robust index of P/CVE policies in Western countries (N = 38), based on data submitted by national experts, which we then use to test three hypothesized structural correlates of the extent of P/CVE implementation: threat of terrorism (measured as the number of past attacks/victims), size of Muslim minorities (Muslim communities have been "securitised" as potential threats in the post 9/11 period), and neoliberal governance (drawing on criminological literature that connects neoliberalism to anticipatory crime control). We find the first two structural factors to be positively and significantly correlated to the intensity of P/CVE deployment, while neoliberal governance negatively and significantly. In the discussion, we highlight the usefulness of a complementary in-depth qualitative research inspired by these findings.

Radicalization Processes and Transitional Phases in Female and Male Detainees Residing in Dutch Terrorism Wings.

BACKGROUND: Radicalization, violent extremism, and terrorism are risks to societal security. Although research on terrorism-related behaviors is increasing, thorough empirical studies are rare. METHODS: This study investigates radicalization processes and transitions in a matched sample of female and male terrorist suspects and convicts (N = 26) residing in Dutch penitentiary terrorism wings. RESULTS: Results show that both men and women often experienced discrimination. A subgroup of women grew up in a stressful family environment and lacked emotional support from their family, whereas the other women did not experience such circumstances. The majority of the study sample was susceptible to connecting with radicalized friends or family members. Interestingly, factors that initially led to radicalization (e.g., a utopian image of the Islamic State) could later turn out to be factors associated with abandoning extremism. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, differences in radicalization processes and transitional phases between women and men emerged. Men more often had police contact prior to a terrorism-related offense. Making an effort to right old mistakes seemed important in the radicalization processes of men, whereas women had a stronger desire for emotional support and were more driven by experienced trauma and feelings of loneliness. This study provides input for gender-specific prevention and disengagement interventions.

Interrater and intra-rater reliability of the VERA-2R tool.

Introduction: The Violent Extremism Risk Assessment - Version 2 Revised (VERA-2R) is an evidence-based structured professional judgement (SPJ) tool for ideologically motivated violence. Use of the tool can help professionals in risk assessment and risk management of suspected and convicted terrorists and violent extremists at different stages within the criminal process. It is important that the tool leads to reliable and valid risk assessments. Methods: The present study aimed to establish the reliability of the VERA-2R, focusing on the interrater- and intrarater reliability. Trained researchers assessed the interrater- and intrarater reliability, respectively in 30 and 33 cases of Dutch convicted terrorist offenders, on the basis of extensive judicial files. Results: In general, the average amount of agreement on the indicators and structured risk judgements can be classified as good to excellent, for both the interrater- and intra-rater reliability. However, six indicators were found to have low reliability. Above clarifying the reliability of the VERA-2R, this study also showed how the interrater- and intrarater reliability of a SPJ tool can be investigated with trained assessors based on judicial files. This can be of added value, because existing reliability studies often use case vignettes, have a small sample size and/or do not include a stringent training program. Discussion: With this research, we can make more substantiated recommendations on how the VERA-2R can be improved. This could lead to more accurate risk assessments and risk management strategies. However, in order to develop a more reliable and valid VERA-2R instrument, the remaining psychometric properties must also be investigated and published. That will be discussed in a future article.

Toward an integrated approach for mental health and psychosocial support and peacebuilding in North-East Nigeria: programme description and preliminary outcomes from 'Counselling on Wheels'.

BACKGROUND: Despite theoretical support for including mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) with peacebuilding, few programmes in conflict-affected regions fully integrate these approaches. AIMS: To describe and assess preliminary outcomes of the Counselling on Wheels programme delivered by the NEEM Foundation in the Borno State of North-East Nigeria. METHOD: We first describe the components of the Counselling on Wheels programme, including education and advocacy for peace and social cohesion through community peacebuilding partnerships and activities, and an MHPSS intervention open to all adults, delivered in groups of eight to ten people. We then conducted secondary analysis of data from 1550 adults who took part in the MHPSS intervention, who provided data at baseline and 1-2 weeks after the final group session. Vulnerability to violent extremism was assessed with a locally developed 80-item scale. Symptoms of common mental disorders were assessed with the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS-21) and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Scale (PTSD-8). Data were analysed through a mixed-effect linear regression model, accounting for clustering by community and adjusted for age and gender. RESULTS: After taking part in group MHPSS, scores fell for depression (-5.8, 95% CI -6.7 to -5.0), stress (-5.5, 95% CI -6.3 to -4.6), post-traumatic stress disorder (-2.9, 95% CI -3.4 to -2.4) and vulnerability to violent extremism (-44.6, 95% CI -50.6 to -38.6). CONCLUSIONS: The Counselling on Wheels programme shows promise as a model for integrating MHPSS with community peacebuilding activities in this conflict-affected region of Africa.

Views of democracy and society and support for political violence in the USA: findings from a nationally representative survey.

BACKGROUND: Current conditions in the USA suggest an increasing risk for political violence. Little is known about the prevalence of beliefs that might lead to political violence, about support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, and about how those measures vary with individual characteristics, lethality of violence, political objectives that violence might advance, or specific populations as targets. METHODS: This cross-sectional US nationally representative survey was conducted on May 13 to June 2, 2022, of adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Outcomes are weighted, population-representative proportions of respondents endorsing selected beliefs about American democracy and society and violence to advance political objectives. RESULTS: The analytic sample included 8620 respondents; 50.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.3%, 51.7%) were female; and weighted mean (± standard deviation) age was 48.4 (± 18.0) years. Nearly 1 in 5 (18.9%, 95% CI 18.0%, 19.9%) agreed strongly or very strongly that "having a strong leader for America is more important than having a democracy"; 16.2% (95% CI 15.3%, 17.1%) agreed strongly or very strongly that "in America, native-born white people are being replaced by immigrants," and 13.7% (95% CI 12.9%, 14.6%) agreed strongly or very strongly that "in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States." One-third of respondents (32.8%, 95% CI 31.7%, 33.9%) considered violence to be usually or always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives. Among all respondents, 7.7% (95% CI 7.0%, 8.4%) thought it very or extremely likely that within the next few years, in a situation where they believe political violence is justified, "I will be armed with a gun"; 1.1% (95% CI 0.9%, 1.4%) thought it very or extremely likely that "I will shoot someone with a gun." Support for political violence and for the use of firearms in such violence frequently declined with increasing age, education, and income. CONCLUSIONS: Small but concerning proportions of the population consider violence, including lethal violence, to be usually or always justified to advance political objectives. Prevention efforts should proceed urgently based on the best evidence available.

Long-term causal effects of far-right terrorism in New Zealand.

The Christchurch mosque attacks in 2019, committed by a radical right-wing extremist, resulted in the tragic loss of 51 lives. Following these events, there was a noticable rise in societal acceptance of Muslim minorities. Comparable transient reactions have been observed elsewhere. However, the critical questions remain: can these effects endure? Are enduring effects evident across the political spectrum? It is challenging to answer such questions because identifying long-term causal effects requires estimating unobserved attitudinal trajectories without the attacks. Here, we use six preattack waves of Muslim acceptance responses from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (NZAVS) to infer missing counterfactual trajectories (NZAVS cohort 2012, N=4,865; replicated in 2013 cohort, N=7,894). We find (1) the attacks initially boosted Muslim acceptance; (2) the magnitude of the initial Muslim acceptance boost was similar across the political spectrum; (3) no changes were observed in negative control groups; and (4) two- and three-year effects varied by baseline political orientation: liberal acceptance was stable, conservative acceptance grew relative to the counterfactual trend. Overall, the attacks added five years of growth in Muslim acceptance, with no regression to preattack levels over time. Continued growth among conservatives highlights the attack's failure to divide society. These results demonstrate the utility of combining methods for causal inference with national-scale panel data to answer psychological questions of basic human concern.