[Fertility Survey, Metropolitana region, Chile 1989]. / Encuesta de Fecundidad, Region Metropolitana, Chile 1989.

PIP: A fertility study was carried out by the Chilean Association for Protection of the Family (APROFA) in metropolitan Chile in 1989 to update data from the most recent fertility study in 1974. A random and self-weighted sample of 600 women aged 15-44 in 32 urban communes of the metropolitan region were interviewed in November 1989. 55% were married or in stable consensual unions, 39.1% were single, and 5.9% were separated, divorced, or widowed. 24.1% had primary educations, 15.5% had some form of higher education, and .2% were illiterate. 64.2% of the women had children, of whom 63.8% had 1 or 2. Only 2.1% had 6 or more children. 46.2% felt that the ideal family size was 1-2 children and 30.7% that it was 3 children. 40.4% of women with children wanted another child and 59.6% did not. 25.1% of the sample had never had sexual relations, 7.3% had not had sexual relations in the 12 months prior to the interview, and the remaining 67.6% were sexually active. At the time of the survey 6.1% were pregnant and 11.1% had had a birth in the preceding 12 months. 28.3% of these pregnancies were considered unwanted, usually for economic reasons or because the family was considered complete. 55.6% of the sample reported using contraceptives. 48.6% used IUDs, 26.0% used oral contraceptives, 6.9% periodic abstinence methods, and 1.8% barrier methods. Only 7.5% of women aged 15-19 used contraception. Rates of use stabilized after age 25 at about 72%. 80.9% of women married or in union used a method, as did 20.2% of single and 59.3% of separated or divorced women. The data for the survey are still under analysis and all statistics are provisional.^ieng

Survey report: Dominican Republic.

PIP: The results of the Dominican Republic's 1986 Demographic and Health Survey suggest increased reliance on effective means of contraception but a continued preference for large family size. The survey covered 7649 women 15-49 years of age. Although only half of the women surveyed were currently using a contraceptive method, over 93% of these women were relying on an effective method, largely female sterilization. A desire to become pregnant was the main reason given for nonuse of contraception. However, 29% of women who were not using a method of contraception at the time of the survey indicated they did not want to become pregnant within the next 2 years. Many of these women expressed unfounded fears about the side-effects of contraceptive methods such as the pill. The 1986 survey recorded a total fertility rate of 3.7 lifetime births/woman for the 1983-85 period--the 1st time this rate has dropped below 4. However, survey respondents indicated a desired fertility rate of only 2.8 births, suggesting an unmet need for family planning services in the Dominican Republic. Another survey finding--that 68 infants/1000 die before their 1st birthday--suggests a need for greater access to maternal-child health services, especially in the country's rural areas.^ieng

Peru 1986: results from the Demographic and Health Survey.

PIP: The Peru Demographic and Health Survey, conducted in 1986-87, collected data from 4666 households and included complete interviews with 4999 women 15-49 years of age. The survey was national in scope, covering 93% of the population. This article presents summary statistics from the survey. The 26 tables and figures that comprise this article cover the following topics: general characteristics of the population; distribution of survey sample population by socioeconomic characteristics; fertility trends; fertility differentials, 1983-85; age-specific fertility; ideal number of children by age and number of living children for currently married women; desire to stop childbearing among currently married women; planning status of births in last 12 months, by birth order; contraceptive prevalence differentials; contraceptive prevalence by age and parity; source of current method or information about method; knowledge and use of methods among currently married women; nonuse among exposed currently married women by desire for more children; reasons for nonuse among exposed nonusers; current marital status; differentials in age at 1st union; exposure status of currently married women; duration of postpartum interval by current status; differentials in breastfeeding and amenorrhea; postpartum status by duration since birth; infant mortality trends; infant mortality differentials, 1981-86; children ever born and surviving; percent of children under 5 years of age with health card, and percent immunized; prevalence and treatment of diarrhea among children under 5 years of age; and type of assistance during delivery for births in 5 years prior to survey. The ideal number of children averaged 2.8 among survey respondents. 46% of respondents were current users of a contraceptive method.^ieng

[Chiclayo, Peru: sexuality and family planning in women of different socioeconomic status].

PIP: Data on sexual attitudes and conduct focus mainly on university populations and other student groups. A survey of sexual attitudes and conduct was administered to 128 upper middle class women, 218 lower middle class women, and 41 poor women in Peru who were mothers. The average age was 35.2, 30.8, and 28.1, and the average number of children was 2.5, 3.5, and 4.0, respectively for each group of mothers. The mean age at menarche was 12.3, 13.8, and 13.6 respectively; this difference was attributed to differences in nutrition. The mean age at 1st intercourse was 21.0, 18.9, and 17.4, and the mean age at 1st pregnancy was 23.2, 21.3, and 19.5 respectively. Thus, there is a direct relationship to socioeconomic status for these last 2 categories. Notably, 52% of the women from a low socioeconomic status became pregnant during adolescence. The respective self-reported use of contraception ranged from 100% among upper middle class women to 72% and 40% for the other groups of mothers. A majority of women in the upper middle class and lower middle class groups believe that men should not engage in premarital sex. A large majority of women in all 3 groups are opposed to legalized abortion. The % of women who believe that abortion should never be allowed under any circumstances was 42.8%, 71.9%, and 60% respectively, and an additional 57.2%, 18.8% and 32.0% respectively would only allow abortion when the mother's health is at risk. The ideal number of children was 3 in all 3 groups.^ieng

A preliminary note on fertility differentials by social class in Suriname.

This paper examines the fertility differentials by social class in Suriname in the 1960s and 1970s, and analyses the sudden stagnation in the decline in fertility that occurred between 1962 and 1974. Substantial differences in fertility by social class existed in the 1960s and 1970s in Suriname, with the number of liveborn children to mothers at each age during the childbearing period being higher for lower class than for middle class mothers. Both social classes contributed to the drop in overall fertility which occurred between 1962-74 although the middle class displayed the largest reduction in fertility. The stabilization of the fertility trend since 1974 is limited to the middle class which seems to have realized its ideal family size.

Stalls in fertility decline in Costa Rica, Korea, and Sri Lanka.

PIP: This study seeks to answer 2 questions: are there developing countries whose decline in fertility was rapid but then decelerated greatly or stopped totally; and if there are, what would cause such fertility declines to falter. Although the number of developing countries which have experienced such a stall for at least 5 years at a level well above replacement, and for which quality data are available, is limited, it is possible to study 3 such countries: Costa Rica, Korea, and Sri Lanka. In all 3, the total fertility rate (TFR) began a sustained rapid decline during the 1960s (though in Sri Lanka the decline may have begun during the 1950s). These declines began to stall around 1975. Korea experienced such a pause earlier, and is the only one of the 3 countries in which 2 stalls occurred. While the TFR leveled off during the late 1970s in Costa Rica and Sri Lanka, it continued to fall in Korea, but at a much slower pace than during the previous declines. The stalls which began in the late 1970s had not ended as of the most recent years for which data were available (1980-82). The explanations of the stalls are partial and differ for the 3 countries. In Costa Rica, the fall of marital fertility and increase in contraceptive use slowed, apparently as a result of convergence between desired and actual fertility in the mid-1970s and a weakening of the family planning program, as the initial enthusiasm and political support waned. It is likely that a further decline in fertility awaits a decline in desired family size. If desired size were to fall substantially below the level of the late 1970s, then the status of the family planning program would be relevant. In Korea, at least some of the reasons for the near leveling off of the TFR during the late 1960s seems to be evident, but the explanation for the deceleration after 1975 is unclear. During the earlier period, an increase in marriage among women 30-49 years old, as well as an increase in marital fertility of those under age 30, offset declines in marriage among women 15-29 years old and in the marital fertility of women age 30-49. The rise in the marital fertility of younger women is accounted for by a sharp decrease in the first 3 birth intervals, resulting from increases in premaritally conceived 1st births (associated with a shift from arranged to romantic marriages), declines in the duration of breastfeeding, and an apparently growing desire to terminate childbearing early. The increase in contraceptive use slowed markedly during the late 1960s. By the late 1970s, childbearing had become so concentrated that almost half of the TFR was accounted for by the birthrate of women aged 25-29, and about 2/3 by women age 25-34. The increase in contraceptive use decelerated during the late 1970s and early 1980s, after the acceleration of the early 1970s. The reasons for these changes have not been identified. The explanation for the fertility stall during the late 1970s in Sri Lanka is quite limited. A large increase in contraceptive use occurred between 1975-82. Surveys indicate that at least some of the fertility depressing effect of this contraceptive use increase was offset by an increase in marriage.^ieng

Peru CPS.

PIP: Peru has the 4th largest and one of the fastest growing populations in South America. Since 1976 Peru has officially supported family planning and child and maternal health services in an attempt to improve living standards and lower mortality. The government has sponsored several national demographic surveys in the past decade, in part to assess the success of these programs and to examine the fertility patterns. Results of the most recent survey, ENPA, conducted in 1981 provided an excellent opportunity to judge current trends in childbearing attitudes and behavior. The ENPA showed little change in the Peruvian total fertility rate (TFR). The TFR dropped from 5.3 children/woman in 1977-78 to 5.2 in 1981. There were large regional differences in fertility. There was a marked drop in the number of children women reported they wanted, from 3.8 children in 1977-78 to 2.8 in 1981. The 1977-78 survey revealed that over 80% of the women were familiar with modern contraceptive methods, but only about 15% used them. A slightly larger percentage of women used traditional methods, primarily rhythm. By 1981, the percentage of women in union using family planning increased from 32 to 41; most of this gain occurred in the percentage using rhythm. 33% of the women who wanted no more children were not using any form of family planning and less than half were using a reliable contraceptive method. The results indicated a substantial "unmet need." Most contraceptives were obtained from pharmacies, with the exception of clinical methods such as IUDs and sterilization. Older women wanting to be sterilized overwhelmingly sought out government supported hospitals or clinics.^ieng

A model of child nutrition, fertility, and women's time allocation: the case of Nicaragua.

"This study had two main goals. The first was to test the hypothesis that women who work in the informal sector of the labor force have better-nourished children, ceteris paribus, than women who work in the formal sector. A simple home production model for child nutrition incorporating this hypothesis was specified and the behavior of a utility-maximizing household investigated. The empirical estimates of the nutritional status production function provided no convincing support for the hypothesis." The second goal was "to investigate the joint determinants of child nutrition and of women's fertility and work choices....[It is suggested] that increases in women's education and formal sector wages will induce declines in fertility and improvements in child nutrition. Increases in informal sector wages will improve nutrition but have little impact on fertility, and income effects are minimal on all three variables." Data are from a household survey conducted in Nicaragua in 1977 and 1978.

Public policy and female sterilization in Costa Rica.

For 20 years, female sterilization has been increasing in popularity as a contraceptive method in Costa Rica. However, contraceptive sterilization has never been allowed explicitly under Costa Rican law. In 1976 the Costa Rican National Assembly instituted more stringent guidelines regarding medical sterilizations in order to eliminate contraceptive sterilizations, which had been occurring under relatively loose interpretations of national policy. Data from the 1976 National Fertility Survey and the 1981 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey indicate that the change in policy had only a short-term effect. Period sterilization rates fell substantially after 1976 but rebounded considerably by 1980, and the estimate of the proportion of married women who will ultimately be sterilized was approximately .5 for the periods both before and after 1976.

PIP: There has been a rapid decline in fertility in Costa Rica in the past 2 decades as a result of dramatic increases in the use of contraceptives, female sterilization being one of the most popular. The objection of certain groups to contraceptive sterilization was responsible for a change in procedures designed to eliminate sterilization for contraceptive purposes. However the enforcement of this policy has had little or no long term effect since medical versus contraceptive indications for the procedure cannot be defined precisely, and surgical sterilization for medical reasons is an important part of any modern health program for women. Other examples of government effort to eliminate access to certain forms of contraception or to reverse fertility declines, especially Eastern European countries such as limiting the availability of abortion, have had only very short-lived impact on birth rates. Romania provides the most striking example. In 1966, before stringent regulations in regard to abortion went into effect, the abortion ratio per 1000 live births was 3050; in 1967 it was 333, when abortion was legally limited to women over 45; or women having 4 or more children; or with specific medical indications. But the ratio increased to a level close to 1000 by 1972; abortions were being performed more frequently on the grounds of adverse mental health consequences, which were classified as a medical indication. The general conclusion from the cases cited in this paper is that once low fertility norms are widely accepted in a society that is accustomed to access to the effective contraception needed to fulfill those norms, the ability of a government to restrict access to certain methods of contraception is substantially limited. Studies of family planning in developing countries show that the task of initiating a fertility decline is very difficult as high fertility norms are deeply integrated into social systems and not easy to dislodge. However, once low fertility norms and associated behavior are firmly established, they are equally difficult to dislodge.

[Determinants of fertility in Costa Rica]. / Determinantes de la fecundidad en Costa Rica.

PIP: An attempt to systematize variables or factors traditionally associated with fertility, this study is not intended as a theoretical framework. 2 periods in Costa Rican fertility are recognized: one before 1960 and one after 1960. Within these periods 4 stages, each with different "key" determinants, are recognized. Until 1960, high fertility rates prevailed, with more than 6 children as total. Fluctuations were due to voluntary factors such as nuptiality and breastfeeding, and involuntary factors such as demand for less children during economic recession. Between 1960 and 1975 fertility declined. It is believed that the "key" factors in this fertility decline were on the contraceptive "offert" side rather than on the children demand side. The participation of peasants and low socioeconomic groups in the fertility decline and governmental health and family planning services are also recognized as important factors. Since the mid 70's a new stage of relative stability has been reached with an apparent convergence towards a total fertility of 3 children. How close this level is reached in the near future will depend on the control of unwanted fertility. The possibility of a 2nd fertility decline in Costa Rica depends mainly on factors which determine why couples have a 3rd child. Consequently, investigation of these factors is suggested to anticipate the future course of Costa Rican fertility. Basic fertility data are given in tables and an appendix.^ieng

A psychosocial model of health behavior: implications for nutrition education, research and policy.

The paper presents a multidimensional psychological model of determinants of health behavior, tested empirically in three countries to ascertain its validity. The model postulates that given that ethnic, socioeconomic, and biological statuses (exogenous variables) are homogeneous, a health risk-taking behavior in a population is a function of direct, additive, and interaction effects of five categories of independent variables both internal to the persons and external in the action environment. Although the model is tested on contraceptive behavior, it is argued that the determinants and basic processes of this risk-taking behavior are similar to those involved in other health risk behaviors and that the five basic factors identified affect nutritional behaviors as well. The paper presents several broad implications on the model for nutrition education and research; but holds that specific implications could be best derived by the specialists in nutrition field.

PIP: This paper presents a multidimensional psychosocial model of determinants of health behavior, tested empirically in 3 countries to ascertain its validity. The model postulates that given that ethnic, socioeconomic, and biological statuses (exogenous variables) are homogeneous, a health risktaking behavior in a population is a function of direct, additive and interaction effects of 5 categories of independent variables both internal to the persons and external in the action environment. Although the model is tested on contraceptive behavior, it is argued that the determinants and basic processes of this risktaking behavior are similar to those involved in other health risk behaviors and that the 5 basic factors identified affect nutritional behaviors as well. The paper presents several broad implications of the model for nutrition education and research but holds that specific implications could be best derived by specialists in the field of nutrition.

Values clarification as a technique for family planning education.

A Spanish language family planning education program utilizing the dynamics of values clarification has been designed and implemented in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico. The design of the program features three basic personality identification activities to help individuals identify other dimensions of adult life expression than child rearing. In addition, a series of simple and precise scenarios specifically related to family planning are presented. Each scenario is accompanied by a set of valuing questions that direct the learner to respond to the scenario. The activity booklet is entitled, "Clarification De Valores En La Planificacion Familar." The booklet requires the learner to make responses to the learning materials. Responses are then used as a basis for inferring that people are comprehending and above all personalizing knowledge about themselves and their culture and family planning. The program is cross cultural and can be used in Spanish speaking communities in the U.S. Its English language form can be used with English speaking target populations. Statistical analysis of seven critical categories of the program indicated that the shifts in attitudes from pre-to post-values, whether positive or negative (desirable or undesirable), were not significant at the .05 level of confidence. It should, however, be noted that small shifts in the rate of natural increase, or rate of natural decrease for population growth can have a dramatic effect on population growth when multiplied by time.

PIP: A Spanish language family planning education program utilizing the dynamics of values clarification has been designed and implemented in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico. The program design features 3 basic personality identification activities to help individuals identify other dimensions of adult life expression than childrearing. In addition, a series of simple and precise scenarios specifically related to family planning are presented. Each scenario is accompanied by a set of valuing questions which direct the learner to respond to the scenario. The activity booklet is entitled "Clarificacion De Valores En La Planificacion Familiar." The booklet requires the learner to make responses to the learning materials. Responses are then used as a basis for inferring that people are comprehending and above all personalizing knowledge about themselves and their culture and family planning. The program is cross-cultural and can be used in Spanish-speaking communities in the US. Its English language form can be used with English-speaking target populations. Statistical analysis of 7 critical categories of the program indicated that the shifts in attitudes from pre- to post-values, whether positive or negative (desirable or undesirable) were not significant at the .05 level of confidence. It should, however, be noted that small shifts in the rate of natural increase, or rate of natural decrease for population growth can have a dramatic effect on population growth when multiplied by time.

[Demographic characteristics, wish and intent to procreate, and the use of contraception in a group of women in Mexico City]. / Características demográficas, deseo, intención de procreación y uso de anticoncepción en un grupo de mujeres de la ciudad de México.

PIP: 156 fertile, sexually active women aged 17-47 from the Northwest zone of Mexico City were interviewed during 1980 to explore the relationship between several demographic variables, their intention to have a child within 2 years, and birth control practice. The average age of the respondents was 28, the average duration of union was 7 years, and the average number of living children was 2. 85 women stated they wanted no more children, and the maximum number desired by any respondent was 6. 41 women stated they intended to conceive a child within 2 years. 28 used no contraception, 76 used an IUD or hormonal method, and the remainder used other methods including rhythm, withdrawal, spermicides, and condoms. A significant inverse relationship was found between the woman's age, number of living children, and duration of marriage, and the desire to have children. Women desiring 1 or more children were under 36 years old, in unions for 4 or fewer years, and had 2 or fewer living children. 29 women stated they wanted a child but did not intend to conceive within 2 years. No significant relationship was found between the intention to have a child within 2 years and birth control practice. Women with at least 1 child and married 2 or more years were however more likely to use birth control. No significant difference was found between women employing efficient contraceptive methods (IUDs and hormonal methods) and those using other methods.^ieng

[Recent and future trends in general fertility in Venezuela]. / Evolution recente et perspectives de fecondite generale au Venezuela

PIP: Data from the 1977 Venezuela Fertility survey were used to assess recent trends in fertility and to attempt an understanding of future fertility based on observed trends. Between 1951-61, the total fertility rate increased from 5.96 to 6.61. In the 1960s, the fertility of women aged 15-30 years declined somewhat and the use of contraception and sterilization became more widespread, so that by 1971 the total fertility rate fell to 5.58. It is possible that the 1977 fertility survey slightly underrepresented women in the Caracas area, which would tend to overestimate fertility at the national level. The small sample size of 4361 women aged 15-44 involved considerable fluctuations in fertility rates from year to year. The risk of errors resulting from the method of retrospective reporting of live births appeared to be small since the recall period was relatively short. A series of quinquennial rates for women aged 15-39 was constructed for each age group from 1968-77. Fertility rates estimated for 1971 and 1976 respectively from the Venezuela Fertility Survey results using a moving average for 3 years were 120.7 and 105.1 for women 15-19, 259.0 and 225.1 for women 20-24, 255.0 and 213.1 for women 25-29, 214.3 and 167.7 for women 30-34, and 150.0 and 103.6 for women 35-39. The results were quite close to fertility rates estimated in other sources. The 1977 fertility survey indicated a trend toward later age at marriage and a correlation of ideal family size with age. The ideal number of children was 4.2 for the total sample, 5 children for women aged 35-39 years, 4.5 for those aged 30-34, 3.9 for those 25-29, and 3.5 for those aged 20-24. 55% of women in union stated they wanted no more children. 46% of women exposed to risk of pregnancy used a modern method of contraception; the proportion varied from 40% of those with 1 child to 56% with 4 children. The fertility decline, reduced ideal family size, and use of modern contraception were closely associated with education, urbanization, and female labor force participation. Induced abortion may also contribute to the fertility decline but accurate data are lacking. High and low projections through the year 2001 based on the survey findings call for total fertility rates of 3.16 or 2.28 respectively in 2001, compared to the 4.39 observed in the survey.^ieng

[Five hundred females from Guadeloupe and their attitudes to contraception (author's transl)]. / 500 femmes guadeloupeennes et la contraception.

PIP: Notwithstanding the fact that family planning counseling and services are absolutely free in Basse-Terre, Guadeloupe, requests for induced abortion are increasing. A survey was conducted among 500 women to discover the areas of resistance to contraception. Most women were between 18-32; 38% had at least 1 abortion, and of these 28% had at least 2. 67% of women with parity 6 or over would have liked a smaller family; no woman wanted more than 5 children and ideal family size was considered to be 3. 1 out of 4 women did not disucss contraception with their partner; 3 out of 4 had tried the pill, but 1 out of 4 thought it to be dangerous; only 13% of women who had taken or were taking the pill were satisfied; only 1 out of 2 women took the pill duringly breast feeding. 1 out of 3 women interviewed had tried the IUD. 23% relied on coitus interruptus and 18% on the condom for protection. Sterilization was not very popular and it was requested mainly by women aged 30-44 with parity 3 and over. Only 1 out of 4 knew about vasectomy. All women stated to prefer contraception to induced abortion, and only 68% knew that abortion was legal. The results indicate poor information and comprehension of contraceptive methods. The role of physicians, nurses, and midwives remains paramount in informing couples about their responsibilities in contraception.^ieng

Women's work, fertility, and competing time use in Mexico City.

PIP: This study suggests that the degree to which work and childcare are competing uses of time is an important determinant of the female labor force participation (FLFP) fertility relationships in less developed countries. A negative relationship may be found where work and childcare are competing uses of time, and no relationship (or even a positive relationship) where they are not. Several measures of competing time use are developed. The competing time use hypothesis is tested using sample survey data from Mexico City. Focus is on correlation, not causation. A basic assumption is that FLFP and fertility decisions are made jointly and depend on income, prices, tastes, wages, employment opportunities, and current family size. The empirical work deals with the direction and significance of partial correlations between FLFP and fertility and whether these correlations vary predictably according to the degree to which work and childcare are competing uses of time. The data were drawn from a multistage, stratified, clustered probability sample of married Mexican women living in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. All women were living with their husbands at the time of the interview in early 1971. Sample size was 798. The empirical results provide strong support for the hypothesis that a negative FLFP fertility relationship will exist only if work and childcare are competing uses of time. When no distinction was made regarding competing time use, there was no significant FLFP fertility relationship. Women who had worked at some time since marriage had very similar levels of fertility to women who had not. When distinctions regarding competing time use were made, large fertility differences were evident. Workers for whom market work and childcare cannot be performed simultaneously had significantly lower fertility than nonworkers; workers for whom market work and childcare could be performed simultaneously had similar or higher fertility than nonworkers. Full time workers had significantly lower fertility than nonworkers, but part-time workers did not. The modern sector workers had significantly lower fertility than nonworkers but traditional sector workers did not. Policies that deal with female employment in developing countries need to focus on both levels of employment and the nature of that employment.^ieng

[Contraception as a determinant factor in Colombian fertility]. / La anticoncepcion como factor condicionante de la fecundidad en Colombia.

PIP: A model of contraceptive use as a conditioning factor in Colombian fertility is described and tested using data from the National Fertility Survey of 1976 in which 5378 women representative of the country and its geographical regions were interviewed. The variables included in the model are cumulative fertility, desired fertility, duration of union, use of contraception, knowledge of effective contraception, education, women's labor force participation, zone of residence, and age. The analysis demonstrates that cumulative fertility depends on couple's ideal family size; duration of union, especially in the 1st 10 years and increasingly less thereafter; mother's education, which has a negative effect that was the most consistent of all those measured; and rural or urban residence. The indirect effects of education and area of residence were found to be present but small. The variables of knowledge and use of contraceptive methods deserve consideration because of their potential relevance for family planning campaigns. Although over 95% of women had knowledge of effective methods of contraception, only 50 to 66% reported having used contraception at any time in their lives.^ieng

Association of infant mortality and high fertility: an empirical investigation.

PIP: The relationship between fertility and infant mortality is interdependent. Reduction in infant mortality affects the reduction of fertility in 2 ways. The biological mechanism operates largely through lactation and the length of postpartum amenorrhea. Infant death abbreviates lactation and hastens the resumption of ovulation. The behavioral mechanism operates largely through experience with and fear of infant mortality, which motivates parents to replace lost children or to have many children as insurance against expected death. Both of these effects are dependent on prevailing social norms about ideal family size. Another behavioral explanation is that parents' sexual activity is different when an infant survives than when an infant dies. Fertility also affects infant mortality. Infant mortality has been observed to increase with the order of birth. The biological mechanisms include infant mortality increasing with the age of the mother and the health status of the mother deteriorating with successive births. Socioeconomic status also plays a role in infant mortality. An empirical study using data from 13 Indian states examines the relationship between 4 variables: percentage of higher order births (the fertility measure), infant mortality rate (IMR), per capita state domestic product, and a measure of the distribution of income. A path analysis of 2 models, one using percentage of higher order births as the dependent variable, the other using IMR as the dependent variable are carried out. Comparing the values of the path coefficients, the direct effect of infant mortality on fertility is found to be higher than the direct effect of fertility on infant mortality. The indirect effect of the development variables lead to the same observation. However, the values of the multiple correlation coefficients are small, since fertility is determined by various other factors. The relationship between fertility and infant mortality is further explored by employing a time series design using data covering 1936-1971 from Chile and Italy. The pattern revealed in the Chilean data is of declining IMR, but at high levels and a stable percentage of higher order births, fluctuating around 36-37 until 1951, after which there is a 10 year upward trend, followed by a continuous reduction after 1963. A possible explanation is that with a declining IMR, there is a simultaneous reduction of general mortality, implying better health conditions. The immediate effect is increasing the length of the reproductive span, which increases higher order births. At the initial stages of IMR decline, the association between infant mortality and fertility is weak and negative. At a later point, after 1963, both factors are declining and the correlation between them is .98. The Italian data is consistent with the later stages. Exploring the existence of a time lag in people's perceptions of declining infant mortality, the correlations indicate that the association with fertility is more with IMR of the same year rather than earlier years. The association begins operating when IMR has declined to around 110. These correlations were not subjected to tests of significance.^ieng

[Fertility and development in Brazil: an analysis with stepwise regression]. / Fecundidade e desenvolvimento no Brasil: uma anlise com regressao em etapas.

PIP: This paper analyses a few statistical relations between socioeconomic factors and reproduction in Brazil; the method used is the stepwise regression method, which tries to obtain the best possible explanation of dependent variables with the least possible number of steps. Data utilized are the same used in a preceeding study of the same title which appeared in Boletim Demografico, Jul-Sep 1980. The main results of this investigation are: 1) female salaried labour and female labour force are the factors which mostly influence reduction of fertility; 2) better living conditions, and especially availability of clean water, help reduce the number of fetal mortalities and of spontaneous abortions, thereby resulting in increased fertility; this particular phenomenon is related to occupation of husband; 3) educational status per se does not influence fecundity, but educational status together with other variables contributes to negatively affect fecundity; a higher education status helps toward the change in attitude needed to lower desired family size. These findings are for the total national territory including the states of Sao Paulo and of Rio de Janeiro which are the richest and most populated, and which do not exemplify the situation in the rest of the country. The same statistical study done without data from Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro still revealed that female salaried labour, and not male salaried labour, together with level of industrialization are the variables which mostly influence fecundity levels, especially in areas of high fertility.^ieng