Application of multimodal ultrasonography to predicting the acute kidney injury risk of patients with sepsis: artificial intelligence approach.

The occurrence of acute kidney injury in sepsis represents a common complication in hospitalized and critically injured patients, which is usually associated with an inauspicious prognosis. Thus, additional consequences, for instance, the risk of developing chronic kidney disease, can be coupled with significantly higher mortality. To intervene in advance in high-risk patients, improve poor prognosis, and further enhance the success rate of resuscitation, a diagnostic grading standard of acute kidney injury is employed to quantify. In the article, an artificial intelligence-based multimodal ultrasound imaging technique is conceived by incorporating conventional ultrasound, ultrasonography, and shear wave elastography examination approaches. The acquired focal lesion images in the kidney lumen are mapped into a knowledge map and then injected into feature mining of a multicenter clinical dataset to accomplish risk prediction for the occurrence of acute kidney injury. The clinical decision curve demonstrated that applying the constructed model can help patients whose threshold values range between 0.017 and 0.89 probabilities. Additionally, the metrics of model sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the curve (AUC) are computed as 67.9%, 82.48%, 76.86%, and 0.692%, respectively, which confirms that multimodal ultrasonography not only improves the diagnostic sensitivity of the constructed model but also dramatically raises the risk prediction capability, thus illustrating that the predictive model possesses promising validity and accuracy metrics.

The Future of Total Elbow Arthroplasty: A Statistical Forecast Model for Germany.

This study provides a statistical forecast for the development of total elbow arthroplasties (TEAs) in Germany until 2045. The authors used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Error-Trend-Seasonality (ETS), and Poisson model to forecast trends in total elbow arthroplasty based on demographic information and official procedure statistics. They predict a significant increase in total elbow joint replacements, with a higher prevalence among women than men. Comprehensive national data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt) were used to quantify TEA's total number and incidence rates. Poisson regression, exponential smoothing with Error-Trend-Seasonality, and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) were used to predict developments in the total number of surgeries until 2045. Overall, the number of TEAs is projected to increase continuously from 2021 to 2045. This will result in a total number of 982 (TEAs) in 2045 of mostly elderly patients above 80 years. Notably, female patients will receive TEAs 7.5 times more often than men. This is likely influenced by demographic and societal factors such as an ageing population, changes in healthcare access and utilization, and advancements in medical technology. Our projection emphasises the necessity for continuous improvements in surgical training, implant development, and rehabilitation protocols.

Process-Informed Subsampling Improves Subseasonal Rainfall Forecasts in Central America.

Subseasonal rainfall forecast skill is critical to support preparedness for hydrometeorological extremes. We assess how a process-informed evaluation, which subsamples forecasting model members based on their ability to represent potential predictors of rainfall, can improve monthly rainfall forecasts within Central America in the following month, using Costa Rica and Guatemala as test cases. We generate a constrained ensemble mean by subsampling 130 members from five dynamic forecasting models in the C3S multimodel ensemble based on their representation of both (a) zonal wind direction and (b) Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), at the time of initialization. Our results show in multiple months and locations increased mean squared error skill by 0.4 and improved detection rates of rainfall extremes. This method is transferrable to other regions driven by slowly-changing processes. Process-informed subsampling is successful because it identifies members that fail to represent the entire rainfall distribution when wind/SST error increases.

Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America.

Hydrological predictions at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales can support improved decision-making in climate-dependent sectors like agriculture and hydropower. Here, we present an S2S hydrological forecasting system (S2S-HFS) for western tropical South America (WTSA). The system uses the global NASA Goddard Earth Observing System S2S meteorological forecast system (GEOS-S2S) in combination with the generalized analog regression downscaling algorithm and the NASA Land Information System (LIS). In this implementation study, we evaluate system performance for 3-month hydrological forecasts for the austral autumn season (March-May) using ensemble hindcasts for 2002-17. Results indicate that the S2S-HFS generally offers skill in predictions of monthly precipitation up to 1-month lead, evapotranspiration up to 2 months lead, and soil moisture content up to 3 months lead. Ecoregions with better hindcast performance are located either in the coastal lowlands or in the Amazon lowland forest. We perform dedicated analysis to understand how two important teleconnections affecting the region are represented in the S2S-HFS: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We find that forecast skill for all variables at 1-month lead is enhanced during the positive phase of ENSO and the negative phase of AAO. Overall, this study indicates that there is meaningful skill in the S2S-HFS for many ecoregions in WTSA, particularly for long memory variables such as soil moisture. The skill of the precipitation forecast, however, decays rapidly after forecast initialization, a phenomenon that is consistent with S2S meteorological forecasts over much of the world.

Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that global anthropogenic climate change may be impacting floral phenology and the temporal and spatial characteristics of aero-allergenic pollen. Given the extent of current and future climate uncertainty, there is a need to strengthen predictive pollen forecasts. METHODS: The study aims to use CatBoost (CB) and deep learning (DL) models for predicting the daily total pollen concentration up to 14 days in advance for 23 cities, covering all five continents. The model includes the projected environmental parameters, recent concentrations (1, 2 and 4 weeks), and the past environmental explanatory variables, and their future values. RESULTS: The best pollen forecasts include Mexico City (R2(DL_7) ≈ .7), and Santiago (R2(DL_7) ≈ .8) for the 7th forecast day, respectively; while the weakest pollen forecasts are made for Brisbane (R2(DL_7) ≈ .4) and Seoul (R2(DL_7) ≈ .1) for the 7th forecast day. The global order of the five most important environmental variables in determining the daily total pollen concentrations is, in decreasing order: the past daily total pollen concentration, future 2 m temperature, past 2 m temperature, past soil temperature in 28-100 cm depth, and past soil temperature in 0-7 cm depth. City-related clusters of the most similar distribution of feature importance values of the environmental variables only slightly change on consecutive forecast days for Caxias do Sul, Cape Town, Brisbane, and Mexico City, while they often change for Sydney, Santiago, and Busan. CONCLUSIONS: This new knowledge of the ecological relationships of the most remarkable variables importance for pollen forecast models according to clusters, cities and forecast days is important for developing and improving the accuracy of airborne pollen forecasts.

Electromagnetic Short-Term to Imminent Forecast Indices for M ≥ 5.5 Earthquakes in the Gansu-Qinghai-Sichuan Region of China.

Electromagnetic indices play a potential role in the forecast of short-term to imminent M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes and have good application prospects. However, despite possible progress in earthquake forecasting, concerns remain because it is difficult to obtain accurate epicenter forecasts based on different forecast indices, and the forecast time span is as large as months in areas with multiple earthquakes. In this study, based on the actual demand for short-term earthquake forecasts in the Gansu-Qinghai-Sichuan region of western China, we refined the construction of earthquake forecast indicators in view of the abundant electromagnetic anomalies before moderate and strong earthquakes. We revealed the advantageous forecast indicators of each method for the three primary earthquake elements (time, epicenter, magnitude) and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the anomalies. The correlations between the magnitude, time, intensity, and electromagnetic anomalies of different M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes indicate that the combination of short-term electromagnetic indices is pivotal in earthquake forecasting.

Rare bird forecast: A combined approach using a long-term dataset of an Arctic seabird and a numerical weather prediction model.

Wildlife observation is a popular activity, and sightings of rare or difficult-to-find animals are often highly desired. However, predicting the sighting probabilities of these animals is a challenge for many observers, and it may only be possible by limited experts with intimate knowledge and skills. To tackle this difficulty, we developed user-friendly forecast systems of the daily observation probabilities of a rare Arctic seabird (Ross's Gull Rhodostethia rosea) in a coastal area in northern Japan. Using a dataset gathered during 16 successive winters, we applied a machine learning technique of self-organizing maps and explored how days with gull sightings were related to the meteorological pressure patterns over the Sea of Okhotsk (Method A). We also built a regression model that explains the relationship between gull sightings and local-scale environmental factors (Method B). We then applied these methods with the operational global numerical weather prediction model (a computer simulation application about the fluid dynamics of Earth's atmosphere) to forecast the daily observation probabilities of our target. Method A demonstrated a strong dependence of gull sightings on the 16 representative weather patterns and forecasted stepwise observation probabilities ranging from 0% to 85.7%. Method B also showed that the strength of the northerly wind and the advancement of the season explained gull sightings and forecasted continuous observation probabilities ranging from 0% to 95.5%. Applying these two methods with the operational global numerical weather prediction model successfully forecasted the varied observation probabilities of Ross's Gull from 1 to 5 days ahead from November to February. A 2-year follow-up observation also validated both forecast systems to be effective for successful observation, especially when both systems forecasted higher observation probabilities. The developed forecast systems would therefore allow cost-effective animal observation and may facilitate a better experience for a variety of wildlife observers.

Predictive accuracy of time series models applied to economic data: the European countries retail trade.

Modeling and accurately forecasting trend and seasonal patterns of a time series is a crucial activity in economics. The main propose of this study is to evaluate and compare the performance of three traditional forecasting methods, namely the ARIMA models and their extensions, the classical decomposition time series associated with multiple linear regression models with correlated errors, and the Holt-Winters method. These methodologies are applied to retail time series from seven different European countries that present strong trend and seasonal fluctuations. In general, the results indicate that all the forecasting models somehow follow the seasonal pattern exhibited in the data. Based on mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE) and U-Theil statistic, the results demonstrate the superiority of the ARIMA model over the other two forecasting approaches. Holt-Winters method also produces accurate forecasts, so it is considered a viable alternative to ARIMA. The performance of the forecasting methods in terms of coverage rates matches the results for accuracy measures.

Forecast accuracy of demand for registered nurses and its determinants in South Korea.

BACKGROUND: Despite the significance of demand forecasting accuracy for the registered nurse (RN) workforce, few studies have evaluated past forecasts. PURPOSE: This paper examined the ex post accuracy of past forecasting studies focusing on RN demand and explored its determinants on the accuracy of demand forecasts. METHODS: Data were collected by systematically reviewing national reports or articles on RN demand forecasts. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was measured for forecasting error by comparing the forecast with the actual demand (employed RNs). Nonparametric tests, the Mann‒Whitney test, and the Kruskal‒Wallis test were used to analyze the differences in the MAPE according to the variables, which are methodological and researcher factors. RESULTS: A total of 105 forecast horizons and 196 forecasts were analyzed. The average MAPE of the total forecast horizon was 34.8%. Among the methodological factors, the most common determinant affecting forecast accuracy was the RN productivity assumption. The longer the length of the forecast horizon was, the greater the MAPE was. The longer the length of the data period was, the greater the MAPE was. Moreover, there was no significant difference among the researchers' factors. CONCLUSIONS: To improve demand forecast accuracy, future studies need to accurately measure RN workload and productivity in a manner consistent with the real world.

Deep learning in finance assessing twitter sentiment impact and prediction on stocks.

The widespread adoption of social media platforms has led to an influx of data that reflects public sentiment, presenting a novel opportunity for market analysis. This research aims to quantify the correlation between the fleeting sentiments expressed on social media and the measurable fluctuations in the stock market. By adapting a pre-existing sentiment analysis algorithm, we refined a model specifically for evaluating the sentiment of tweets associated with financial markets. The model was trained and validated against a comprehensive dataset of stock-related discussions on Twitter, allowing for the identification of subtle emotional cues that may predict changes in stock prices. Our quantitative approach and methodical testing have revealed a statistically significant relationship between sentiment expressed on Twitter and subsequent stock market activity. These findings suggest that machine learning algorithms can be instrumental in enhancing the analytical capabilities of financial experts. This article details the technical methodologies used, the obstacles overcome, and the potential benefits of integrating machine learning-based sentiment analysis into the realm of economic forecasting.

Research on prediction and evaluation algorithm of sports athletes performance based on neural network.

BACKGROUND: The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) stands as a prominent global platform for professional mixed martial arts, captivating audiences worldwide. With its continuous growth and globalization efforts, UFC events have garnered significant attention and achieved commendable results. However, as the scale of development expands, the operational demands on UFC events intensify. At its core, UFC thrives on the exceptional performances of its athletes, which serve as the primary allure for audiences. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to enhance the allure of UFC matches and cultivate exceptional athletes by predicting athlete performance on the field. To achieve this, a recurrent neural network prediction model based on Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) is proposed. The model seeks to leverage athlete portraits and characteristics for performance prediction. METHODS: The proposed methodology involves constructing athlete portraits and analyzing athlete characteristics to develop the prediction model. The BiLSTM-based recurrent neural network is utilized for its ability to capture temporal dependencies in sequential data. The model's performance is assessed through experimental analysis. RESULTS: Experimental results demonstrate that the athlete performance prediction model achieved an overall accuracy of 0.7524. Comparative analysis reveals that the proposed BiLSTM model outperforms traditional methods such as Linear Regression and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), showcasing superior prediction accuracy. CONCLUSION: This study introduces a novel approach to predicting athlete performance in UFC matches using a BiLSTM-based recurrent neural network. By leveraging athlete portraits and characteristics, the proposed model offers improved accuracy compared to classical methods. Enhancing the predictive capabilities in UFC not only enriches the viewing experience but also contributes to the development of exceptional athletes in the sport.

Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050-Prevalence of Risk Factors and Disease: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease and stroke are common and costly, and their prevalence is rising. Forecasts on the prevalence of risk factors and clinical events are crucial. METHODS: Using the 2015 to March 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and 2015 to 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we estimated trends in prevalence for cardiovascular risk factors based on adverse levels of Life's Essential 8 and clinical cardiovascular disease and stroke. We projected through 2050, overall and by age and race and ethnicity, accounting for changes in disease prevalence and demographics. RESULTS: We estimate that among adults, prevalence of hypertension will increase from 51.2% in 2020 to 61.0% in 2050. Diabetes (16.3% to 26.8%) and obesity (43.1% to 60.6%) will increase, whereas hypercholesterolemia will decline (45.8% to 24.0%). The prevalences of poor diet, inadequate physical activity, and smoking are estimated to improve over time, whereas inadequate sleep will worsen. Prevalences of coronary disease (7.8% to 9.2%), heart failure (2.7% to 3.8%), stroke (3.9% to 6.4%), atrial fibrillation (1.7% to 2.4%), and total cardiovascular disease (11.3% to 15.0%) will rise. Clinical CVD will affect 45 million adults, and CVD including hypertension will affect more than 184 million adults by 2050 (>61%). Similar trends are projected in children. Most adverse trends are projected to be worse among people identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black, or Hispanic. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of many cardiovascular risk factors and most established diseases will increase over the next 30 years. Clinical and public health interventions are needed to effectively manage, stem, and even reverse these adverse trends.

Development of K-Maryblyt for Fire Blight Control in Apple and Pear Trees in Korea.

K-Maryblyt has been developed for the effective control of secondary fire blight infections on blossoms and the elimination of primary inoculum sources from cankers and newly emerged shoots early in the season for both apple and pear trees. This model facilitates the precise determination of the blossom infection timing and identification of primary inoculum sources, akin to Maryblyt, predicting flower infections and the appearance of symptoms on various plant parts, including cankers, blossoms, and shoots. Nevertheless, K-Maryblyt has undergone significant improvements: Integration of Phenology Models for both apple and pear trees, Adoption of observed or predicted hourly temperatures for Epiphytic Infection Potential (EIP) calculation, incorporation of adjusted equations resulting in reduced mean error with 10.08 degree-hours (DH) for apple and 9.28 DH for pear, introduction of a relative humidity variable for pear EIP calculation, and adaptation of modified degree-day calculation methods for expected symptoms. Since the transition to a model-based control policy in 2022, the system has disseminated 158,440 messages related to blossom control and symptom prediction to farmers and professional managers in its inaugural year. Furthermore, the system has been refined to include control messages that account for the mechanism of action of pesticides distributed to farmers in specific counties, considering flower opening conditions and weather suitability for spraying. Operating as a pivotal module within the Fire Blight Forecasting Information System (FBcastS), K-Maryblyt plays a crucial role in providing essential fire blight information to farmers, professional managers, and policymakers.

Enhancement of ANN-based wind power forecasting by modification of surface roughness parameterization over complex terrain.

Wind energy plays an important role in the sustainable energy transition towards a low-carbon society. Proper assessment of wind energy resources and accurate wind energy prediction are essential prerequisites for balancing electricity supply and demand. However, these remain challenging, especially for onshore wind farms over complex terrains, owing to the interplay between surface heterogeneities and intermittent turbulent flows in the planetary boundary layer. This study aimed to improve wind characteristic assessment and medium-term wind power forecasts over complex hilly terrain using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The NWP model reproduced the wind speed distribution, duration, and spatio-temporal variabilities of the observed hub-height wind speed at 24 wind turbines in onshore wind farms when incorporating more realistic surface roughness effects, such as the subgrid-scale topography, roughness sublayer, and canopy height. This study also emphasizes the good features for machine learning that represent heterogeneities in the surface roughness elements in the atmospheric model. We showed that medium-term forecasting using the NWP model output and a simple artificial neural network (ANN) improved day-ahead wind power forecasts by 14% in terms of annual normalized mean absolute error. Our results suggest that better parameterizations of surface friction in atmospheric models are important for wind power forecasting and resource assessment using NWP models, especially when combined with machine learning techniques, and shed light on onshore wind power forecasting and wind energy assessment in mountainous regions.

Research on runoff process vectorization and integration of deep learning algorithms for flood forecasting.

Accurate multi-step ahead flood forecasting is crucial for flood prevention and mitigation efforts as well as optimizing water resource management. In this study, we propose a Runoff Process Vectorization (RPV) method and integrate it with three Deep Learning (DL) models, namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), and Transformer, to develop a series of RPV-DL flood forecasting models, namely RPV-LSTM, RPV-TCN, and RPV-Transformer models. The models are evaluated using observed flood runoff data from nine typical basins in the middle Yellow River region. The key findings are as follows: Under the same lead time conditions, the RPV-DL models outperform the DL models in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, root mean square error, and relative error for peak flows in the nine typical basins of the middle Yellow River region. Based on the comprehensive evaluation results of the train and test periods, the RPV-DL model outperforms the DL model by an average of 2.82%-22.21% in terms of NSE across nine basins, with RMSE and RE reductions of 10.86-28.81% and 36.14%-51.35%, respectively. The vectorization method significantly improves the accuracy of DL flood forecasting, and the RPV-DL models exhibit better predictive performance, particularly when the lead time is 4h-6h. When the lead time is 4-6h, the percentage improvement in NSE is 9.77%, 15.07%, and 17.94%. The RPV-TCN model shows superior performance in overcoming forecast errors among the nine basins. The research findings provide scientific evidence for flood prevention and mitigation efforts in river basins.

Estimating the COVID-19 prevalence from wastewater.

Wastewater based epidemiology has become a widely used tool for monitoring trends of concentrations of different pathogens, most notably and widespread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, in 2022, also in Rhineland-Palatinate, the Ministry of Science and Health has included 16 wastewater treatment sites in a surveillance program providing biweekly samples. However, the mere viral load data is subject to strong fluctuations and has limited value for political deciders on its own. Therefore, the state of Rhineland-Palatinate has commissioned the University Medical Center at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz to conduct a representative cohort study called SentiSurv, in which an increasing number of up to 12,000 participants have been using sensitive antigen self-tests once or twice a week to test themselves for SARS-CoV-2 and report their status. This puts the state of Rhineland-Palatinate in the fortunate position of having time series of both, the viral load in wastewater and the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the population. Our main contribution is a calibration study based on the data from 2023-01-08 until 2023-10-01 where we identified a scaling factor ( 0.208 ± 0.031 ) and a delay ( 5.07 ± 2.30 days) between the virus load in wastewater, normalized by the pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV), and the prevalence recorded in the SentiSurv study. The relation is established by fitting an epidemiological model to both time series. We show how that can be used to estimate the prevalence when the cohort data is no longer available and how to use it as a forecasting instrument several weeks ahead of time. We show that the calibration and forecasting quality and the resulting factors depend strongly on how wastewater samples are normalized.

Predicting peak inundation depths with a physics informed machine learning model.

Timely, accurate, and reliable information is essential for decision-makers, emergency managers, and infrastructure operators during flood events. This study demonstrates that a proposed machine learning model, MaxFloodCast, trained on physics-based hydrodynamic simulations in Harris County, offers efficient and interpretable flood inundation depth predictions. Achieving an average R 2 of 0.949 and a Root Mean Square Error of 0.61 ft (0.19 m) on unseen data, it proves reliable in forecasting peak flood inundation depths. Validated against Hurricane Harvey and Tropical Storm Imelda, MaxFloodCast shows the potential in supporting near-time floodplain management and emergency operations. The model's interpretability aids decision-makers in offering critical information to inform flood mitigation strategies, to prioritize areas with critical facilities and to examine how rainfall in other watersheds influences flood exposure in one area. The MaxFloodCast model enables accurate and interpretable inundation depth predictions while significantly reducing computational time, thereby supporting emergency response efforts and flood risk management more effectively.

Machine learning-based atrial fibrillation detection and onset prediction using QT-dynamicity.

Objective. This study examines the value of ventricular repolarization using QT dynamicity for two different types of atrial fibrillation (AF) prediction.Approach. We studied the importance of QT-dynamicity (1) in the detection and (2) the onset prediction (i.e. forecasting) of paroxysmal AF episodes using gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDT), an interpretable machine learning technique. We labeled 176 paroxysmal AF onsets from 88 patients in our unselected Holter recordings database containing paroxysmal AF episodes. Raw ECG signals were delineated using a wavelet-based signal processing technique. A total of 44 ECG features related to interval and wave durations and amplitude were selected and the GBDT model was trained with a Bayesian hyperparameters selection for various windows. The dataset was split into two parts at the patient level, meaning that the recordings from each patient were only present in either the train or test set, but not both. We used 80% on the database for the training and the remaining 20% for the test of the trained model. The model was evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation.Main results.The mean age of the patients was 75.9 ± 11.9 (range 50-99), the number of episodes per patient was 2.3 ± 2.2 (range 1-11), and CHA2DS2-VASc score was 2.9 ± 1.7 (range 1-9). For the detection of AF, we obtained an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.99 (CI 95% 0.98-0.99) and an accuracy of 95% using a 30 s window. Features related to RR intervals were the most influential, followed by those on QT intervals. For the AF onset forecast, we obtained an AUROC of 0.739 (0.712-0.766) and an accuracy of 74% using a 120s window. R wave amplitude and QT dynamicity as assessed by Spearman's correlation of the QT-RR slope were the best predictors.Significance. The QT dynamicity can be used to accurately predict the onset of AF episodes. Ventricular repolarization, as assessed by QT dynamicity, adds information that allows for better short time prediction of AF onset, compared to relying only on RR intervals and heart rate variability. Communication between the ventricles and atria is mediated by the autonomic nervous system (ANS). The variations in intraventricular conduction and ventricular repolarization changes resulting from the influence of the ANS play a role in the initiation of AF.

Animal Lives Affected by Meat Consumption Trends in the G20 Countries.

Trends in dietary habits have far-reaching implications, but their impact on animals remains insufficiently explored, as many people continue to dissociate meat from individual animal lives. This research study quantifies the temporal development of the number of animal lives affected by meat consumption within the G20 countries between 1961 and 2020 and forecasts for 2030. Production (including slaughter) and historical and projected food balance data were analyzed to explore these trends. The results indicate an increase in the number of animal lives affected due to increasing consumption, but discrepancies exist between different countries and animal categories. Increases are stronger in emerging countries, such as China, than in more industrialized countries, such as Germany. Overall, the number of animals affected grows 1.7 times as fast as meat consumption due to a shift towards poultry. Poultry birds are affected by far the most, and their dominance in number only slightly reduces when considering the differentiated moral values of the animals, reflecting their sentience. Until 2030, we can expect further increases in the number of animal lives affected. The findings highlight the need for progressive legislation to address the complex trade-offs and challenges in reversing the increasing trends in the number of animals affected.

Analysis and Forecast of Birth Related Indicators in Selected Balkan and Eastern European Countries.

Background: Health indicators are often used for a variety of purposes, including program management, resource allocation, monitoring of country progress, performance-based payment, and global reporting. Real progress in health towards the United Nations Millennium Development Goals and other national health priorities is vitally dependent on stronger health systems. We aimed to analyse the progress of "birth related indicators" of selected countries of Balkan and Eastern Europe and to forecast their values in the future. Methods: This research report article represents a descriptive data analysis of selected health indicators, extracted from European Health for All database (HFA-DB) and EuroStat. Indicators of interest were analysed for 17 countries in observational period from 1990 to 2019. The data were analysed using a linear trend estimate and median operation and interquartile range 25th-75th percentile were used for better comparison of each country. Forecasting analysis to year 2025 was performed by combining Excel analysis and SPSS program. Results: Number of all live births to mothers aged under 20 is decreasing in almost all examined countries, while live births to mother over 35 is mostly increasing. Total fertility rate is also mainly decreasing in almost all countries of interest for our investigation, as well as the crude birth rate. Estimated infant mortality per 1000 live births is decreasing in all observed countries. Conclusion: Population aging is becoming more pronounced, while current birth-related indicators have negative tendencies; this problem will obviously continue over time.