Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hypericum perforatum under Climate Change Scenarios Using a Maximum Entropy Model.

H. perforatum, as one of the Traditional Chinese Medicinal materials, possesses a variety of pharmacological activities and high medicinal value. However, in recent years, the wild resources of H. perforatum have been severely depleted due to global climate change and human activities, and artificial cultivation faces problems such as unstable yield and active ingredient content. This poses a serious obstacle to the development and utilization of its resources. Therefore, this experiment took H. perforatum as the research object and used 894 distribution records of H. perforatum and 36 climatic environmental factors, using the MaxEnt model and GIS technology to explore the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of H. perforatum. Additionally, by utilizing the principles of ecological niche theory, the potential suitable distribution regions of H. perforatum across past, present, and future timelines were predicted, which can ascertain the dynamics of its spatial distribution patterns and the trend of centroid migration. The results indicate that the main environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of H. perforatum are solar radiation in April (Srad4), solar radiation in September (Srad9), mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio9), solar radiation in November (Srad11), annual mean temperature (Bio1), and annual precipitation (Bio12). Under future climate scenarios, there is a remarkable trend of expansion in the suitable distribution areas of H. perforatum. The centroid migration indicates a trend of migration towards the northwest direction and high-altitude areas. These results can provide a scientific basis for formulating conservation and sustainable use management strategies for H. perforatum resources.

Multicriteria GIS-based assessment of biomass energy potentials in Nigeria.

The understanding of the geographical variability of biomass energy is an essential requirement for the optimal location of biomass energy conversion plants. This research presents a multicriteria GIS-based assessment of biomass energy potentials and the appropriate siting of biomass plants in Nigeria. The study applies the weighted overlay multicriteria decision analysis method. Crop and forest areas, settlement (energy supply areas), shrub/grasslands, barren land, water bodies, distance from water sources, road accessibility, topography, and aspect are the criteria that were considered for locating a biomass facility in this study. The results suggest that the theoretical, technical, and economical energy potentials of crop residues are highest in the North-East region of Nigeria and estimated at 1,163.32, 399.73, and 110.56 PJ/yr, respectively, and lowest in the South-East at 52.36, 17.99, and 4.98 PJ/yr, respectively. The theoretical, technical, and economical energy potentials of forest residues are highest in the North-West, estimated at 260.18, 156.11, and 43.18 PJ/yr, respectively, and lowest in the South-East at 1.79, 1.08, and 0.30 PJ/yr, respectively. Although most areas were identified to be suitable for siting biomass plants across Nigeria, the most suitable areas are located in the northern part of the country and include Niger, Zamfara, the Federal Capital Territory, Nassarawa, Kano, Kebbi, Kaduna, and Borno State. The study supports the Nigerian bio-energy policy that proposes to effectively utilize Nigeria's non-fuelwood as a substitute for the felling of trees. This is very important to strengthen its commitment at the COP26 International Climate Conference, which is to conserve and restore its forest. Furthermore, this study will serve as a good reference for policymakers to make well-informed decisions on tackling the energy insecurity in Nigeria.

Geo-statistical analysis of climatic variability and trend detection in the Hindu Kush region, North Pakistan.

This paper is an effort of geo-statistical analysis of rainfall variability and trend detection in the eastern Hindu Kush region located in the north-west of Pakistan. The eastern section of the HK region lies in the western part of Pakistan. Exploring rainfall variability and quantifying its trend and magnitude is one of the key indicators among all climatic parameters. In the study area, Pakistan Meteorology Department (PMD) has established seven meteorological stations: Drosh, Chitral, Dir, Timergara, Saidu Sharif, Malam Jabba, and Kalam. Daily, mean monthly, and mean annual rainfall time series data for all the met stations were geo-statistically analyzed in the GIS environment for detecting monthly and annual variability in rainfall, variability, and trend detection. Mann-Kendall (MK) and Theil-Sen's slope (TSS) statistical tests were applied to rainfall data. Initially, the MK test was applied for detection of trends and TSS test was used to quantify the change in magnitude. The results indicate that the rainfall variability in intensity and trend pattern detection. The analysis confirms that an extremely significant rainfall trend in the case of mean annual rainfall was predicted at Dir and Malam Jabba meteorological stations. Opposite to this, at Kalam and Chitral stations, a less significant rainfall trend was noted. In a similar context, no prominent rainfall trend has been found at Drosh, Timergara, and Saidu Sharif meteorological stations. Likewise, using TSS, an extremely negative variation in the magnitude of rainfall was verified at Kalam and Malam Jabba. However, a noteworthy positive change in rainfall magnitude has been noted at Dir and Saidu Sharif meteorological stations. The findings of this research have the potential to assist the decision and policy makers and academicians to think truly and conduct more scientific research studies to mitigate climate change.

Estimated Worldwide Prevalence of the PI*ZZ Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Genotype in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Introduction: The prevalence of α1-antitrypsin PI*ZZ genotypes in patients with COPD is only partially known. We aimed to estimate this prevalence worldwide. Method: A systematic review of the literature was conducted for studies investigating the prevalence of COPD and the prevalence of severe alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) PI*ZZ genotype. Results are shown in tables and on a whole world interpolation map. Results: Studies from 48 countries with available data (21 from Europe, 9 from the Americas, 5 from Africa, 11 from Asia and 2 from Australasia) were selected. About 235,000 individuals with PI*ZZ genotypes were accounted: 50% in Europe, 37% in America, 9% in Asia, 3% in Australasia and 1% in Africa. The estimated crude prevalence of COPD in adults older than 40 years was 12.45% in Europe, 13.51% in America, 13.22% in Africa, 11.70% in Asia and 11.86% in Australasia. The highest PI*ZZ weighted average prevalence among COPD subjects (expressed as 1/x [95% confidence intervals]) were found in Northern Europe (395 [252–576]) followed by Western (797 [538–1165]), Southern (944 [600–1475]) and Central Europe (1096 [687–1738]). Outside Europe, high values were found in Australia–New Zealand (1007 [684–1509]), Saudi Arabia (1276 [563–2961]), United States (1298 [1094–1540]), Canada (1482 [1057–2083]) and Thailand (1807 [717–4692]). In the rest of the world, prevalence was significantly lower, especially in vast regions of Asia and Africa where the PI*Z gene is practically non-existent. Conclusions: Severe AATD is associated with a significant number of cases of COPD, especially in Europe, USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. (AU)

Estimated Worldwide Prevalence of the PI*ZZ Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Genotype in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of α1-antitrypsin PI*ZZ genotypes in patients with COPD is only partially known. We aimed to estimate this prevalence worldwide. METHOD: A systematic review of the literature was conducted for studies investigating the prevalence of COPD and the prevalence of severe alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) PI*ZZ genotype. Results are shown in tables and on a whole world interpolation map. RESULTS: Studies from 48 countries with available data (21 from Europe, 9 from the Americas, 5 from Africa, 11 from Asia and 2 from Australasia) were selected. About 235,000 individuals with PI*ZZ genotypes were accounted: 50% in Europe, 37% in America, 9% in Asia, 3% in Australasia and 1% in Africa. The estimated crude prevalence of COPD in adults older than 40 years was 12.45% in Europe, 13.51% in America, 13.22% in Africa, 11.70% in Asia and 11.86% in Australasia. The highest PI*ZZ weighted average prevalence among COPD subjects (expressed as 1/x [95% confidence intervals]) were found in Northern Europe (395 [252-576]) followed by Western (797 [538-1165]), Southern (944 [600-1475]) and Central Europe (1096 [687-1738]). Outside Europe, high values were found in Australia-New Zealand (1007 [684-1509]), Saudi Arabia (1276 [563-2961]), United States (1298 [1094-1540]), Canada (1482 [1057-2083]) and Thailand (1807 [717-4692]). In the rest of the world, prevalence was significantly lower, especially in vast regions of Asia and Africa where the PI*Z gene is practically non-existent. CONCLUSIONS: Severe AATD is associated with a significant number of cases of COPD, especially in Europe, USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia.

Geographical mapping of road traffic injuries in Lilongwe, Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Road traffic injuries are a leading cause of death and disability, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Identifying injury hotspots are valuable for introducing preventive measures. This is usually accomplished by using police data, but these are often unreliable in low-income countries. This study aimed to identify hotspots for injuries by collecting geographical data in the emergency room. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of adult road traffic injury patients presenting to the Casualty Department in the central hospital in Lilongwe, the capital of Malawi. An electronic tablet with downloaded maps and satellite photos was used to establish the exact location of the injuries. The geographical data were analyzed with geographic information software. RESULTS: We included 1244 road traffic injured patients, of which 23.9% were car passengers or drivers, 18.6% were motorcyclists, 17.8% were pedestrians and 18.0% were cyclists or bicycle passengers. Heatmaps of the injuries identified 5 locations where the incidence of injuries was especially high, and 148 patients were injured in these hotspots during the 90 days of inclusion. Four of these hotspots were along the main road through the capital. Age over 55, rural setting, alcohol use before the injury, high speed limit at the site of injury and being a pedestrian or motorcyclist were significantly associated with a higher degree of injury severity. Around half of the patients that were injured in a four-wheeled vehicle did not use a seat belt, and these patients had a much higher risk of getting a more severe injury. CONCLUSION: We have identified specific locations with a high incidence of road traffic injuries in Lilongwe, Malawi, with a simple methodology and within a short time frame. The study demonstrates the feasibility of collecting geographical data at admission to hospital.

Standardized Methodology for Target Surveillance against African Swine Fever.

African swine fever (ASF) remains the most serious pig infectious disease, and its persistence in domestic pigs and wild boar (WB) is a threat for the global industry. The surveillance of WB plays a central role in controlling the disease and rapidly detecting new cases. As we are close to eradicating ASF, the need to find any possible pockets of infection is even more important. In this context, passive surveillance is the method of choice for effective surveillance in WB. Considering the time and economic resources related to passive surveillance, to prioritize these activities, we developed a standardized methodology able to identify areas where WB surveillance should be focused on. Using GIS-technology, we divided a specific Sardinian infected area into 1 km2 grids (a total of 3953 grids). Variables related to WB density, ASF cases during the last three years, sex and age of animals, and the type of land were associated with each grid. Epidemiological models were used to identify the areas with both a lack of information and an high risk of hidden ASFV persistence. The results led to the creation of a graphic tool providing specific indications about areas where surveillance should be a priority.

Assessment of the hydrodynamics role for groundwater quality using an integration of GIS, water quality index and multivariate statistical techniques.

To explore the impact of groundwater hydrodynamics on water quality, a cost-effective geospatial model was developed using geographic information system (GIS) technology and the Dupuit assumption. Meanwhile, the groundwater quality in the Dagu River Basin was evaluated based on the water quality index (WQI) and multivariate statistical analyses. In April (dry season) and September (rainy season) 2017, the groundwater level was automatically monitored from 115 wells, and the water quality including 21 hydrochemical parameters was sampled from 37 wells. Results reveal that the WQI values varied from 35.01 to 64.74, with mean values of 51.89 and 47.87 in the rainy and dry seasons. Approximately 80% of the samples exhibited moderate water quality, with no significant difference between the rainy and dry seasons. Nitrate pollution and the integrated water quality in the central and northern regions were generally worse than that in the southern region. The Darcy velocity in the central and northern regions was relatively high with a maximum rate of 0.56 m/d, compared with the southern region. This correlation illustrates the effect of groundwater hydrodynamics on quality. The sowing of greater chemical fertilizers combined with faster groundwater movement is likely responsible for the large-scale nitrate pollution in the central and northern regions. Results also proved the accuracy of the geospatial model with a valid uncertainty. The geospatial model provides a valuable alternative for the spatial analysis of the effect of groundwater hydrodynamics on water quality.

Distribution patterns of natural radionuclides and rare earth elements in marine sediments from the Red Sea, Egypt.

The present study was conducted to study the compositional trends of rare earth elements (REEs), Th, and U in marine sediment samples in terms of distribution patterns, anomalies, and indicator ratios. For this purpose, a total of 32 marine sediment samples were collected from 12 coastal areas of the Egyptian Red Sea and analyzed using instrumental neutron activation (INAA) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) analytical techniques. The analyses investigated 14 REEs, Th, and U. The results revealed that the contents of REE, light REE (LREE), and heavy REE (HREE) are 47.6, 38.7, and 8.3 mg/kg, respectively, whereas the concentration of Th and U is determined as 2.15 and 2.23 mg/kg, respectively. Indicator ratios were calculated, and inter-correlation elements with Th and U were constructed. Multivariate statistics were implemented on the data and GIS technology to construct the distribution patterns of REE, Th, and U along the Egyptian coast of the Red Sea. The obtained results were compared with the corresponding values published in literature to show a good matching. There is a significant enrichment of LREE relative to HREE, a reduced ratio of Th/U, a weak positive anomaly of Eu/Eu*, and a slight positive Ce anomaly is noticed. Among the 12 studied areas, one area, Sharm El-Bahari, located in the middle of the coast, shows peak values of REE, Th, and U relative to the other areas. However, it still shows a good agreement with the results published in the literature.

Using Moss to Assess Airborne Heavy Metal Pollution in Taizhou, China.

Bryophytes act as bioindicators and bioaccumulators of metal deposition in the environment. To understand the atmospheric deposition of heavy metals (cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn)) in Taizhou, East China, samples of moss (Haplocladium microphyllum) were collected from 60 sites selected by a systematic sampling method during the summer of 2012, and the concentrations of these heavy metals were determined by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES). The results suggested that the concentrations of these metals varied moderately among different sites, indicating a similar contamination level for each element throughout the monitoring region. The mean values under investigation were higher than those from neighboring cities, such as Wuxi, Xuzhou, and Nanjing, and much higher than those in Europe based on a 2010 survey. Significant (p < 0.01) correlations were identified among some of the heavy metals, suggesting that these originated from identical sources. There was no statistically significant correlation between Hg and all the other elements. Spatial distribution maps of the elements over the sampled territory were created using Arc-GIS 9.0. The potential ecological risk index indicated that the air was heavily polluted by Cd and Hg, and that there was a considerable potential ecological risk from all the heavy metals studied.

Atmospheric deposition of rare earth elements in Albania studied by the moss biomonitoring technique, neutron activation analysis and GIS technology.

Rare earth elements (REEs) are typically conservative elements that are scarcely derived from anthropogenic sources. The mobilization of REEs in the environment requires the monitoring of these elements in environmental matrices, in which they are present at trace level. The determination of 11 REEs in carpet-forming moss species (Hypnum cupressiforme) collected from 44 sampling sites over the whole territory of the country were done by using epithermal neutron activation analysis (ENAA) at IBR-2 fast pulsed reactor in Dubna. This paper is focused on REEs (lanthanides) and Sc. Fe as typical consistent element and Th that appeared good correlations between the elements of lanthanides are included in this paper. Th, Sc, and REEs were never previously determined in the air deposition of Albania. Descriptive statistics were used for data treatment using MINITAB 17 software package. The median values of the elements under investigation were compared with those of the neighboring countries such as Bulgaria, Macedonia, Romania, and Serbia, as well as Norway which is selected as a clean area. Geographical distribution maps of the elements over the sampled territory were constructed using geographic information system (GIS) technology. Geochemical behavior of REEs in moss samples has been studied by using the ternary diagram of Sc-La-Th, Spider diagrams and multivariate analysis. It was revealed that the accumulation of REEs in current mosses is associated with the wind-blowing metal-enriched soils that is pointed out as the main emitting factor of the elements under investigation.

Assessment of eco-environmental quality of Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone.

Regional eco-environmental quality is the key and foundation to the sustainable socio-economic development of a region. Eco-environmental quality assessment can reveal the capacity of sustainable socio-economic development in a region and the degree of coordination between social production and the living environment. As part of a new development strategy for Fujian Province, the Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone (hereafter referred to as the Economic Zone) provides an important guarantee for the development of China's southeastern coastal area. Based on ecological and remote sensing data on the Economic Zone obtained in 2000, 2005, and 2010, this study investigated county-level administrative regions with a comprehensive index of eco-environmental indicators. An objective weighting method was used to determine the importance of each indicator. This led to the development of an indicator system to assess the eco-environmental quality of the economic zone. ArcGIS software was used to assess the eco-environmental quality of the economic zone based on each indicator. The eco-environmental quality index (EQI) of the county-level administrative regions was calculated. The overall eco-environmental quality of the Economic Zone during the period studied is described and analyzed. The results show that the overall eco-environmental quality of the Economic Zone is satisfactory, but significant intraregional differences still exist. The key to improving the overall eco-environmental quality of this area is to restore vegetation and preserve biodiversity.

First survey of atmospheric heavy metal deposition in Kosovo using moss biomonitoring.

Bryophytes act as bioindicators and bioaccumulators of metal deposition in the environment. The atmospheric deposition of Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Ni, Mn, Pb, and Zn in Kosovo was investigated by using carpet-forming moss species (Pseudocleropodium purum and Hypnum cupressiforme) as bioindicators. This research is part of the European moss survey coordinated by the ICP Vegetation, an International Cooperative Programme reporting on the effects of air pollution on vegetation to the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. Sampling was performed during the summer of 2011 at 25 sampling sites homogenously distributed over Kosovo. Unwashed, dried samples were digested by using wet digestion in Teflon tubes. The concentrations of metal elements were determined by atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) equipped with flame and/or furnace systems. The heavy metal concentration in mosses reflected local emission sources. The data obtained in this study were compared with those of similar studies in neighboring countries and Europe (2010-2014 survey). The geographical distribution maps of the elements over the sampled territory were constructed using geographic information system (GIS) technology. The concentrations of Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn were higher than the respective median values of Europe, suggesting that the zones with heavy vehicular traffic and industry emission input are important emitters of these elements. Selected zones are highly polluted particularly by Cd, Pb, Hg, and Ni. The statistical analyses revealed that a strong correlation exists between the Pb and Cd content in mosses, and the degree of pollution in the studied sites was assessed.

Using remote sensing and GIS technology to monitor and predict the malaria risk in Ham Thuan Nam district, Binh Thuan province

Remote sensing and GIS technology was studied in 2003 to detect and predict the malaria risk in Ham Thuan Nam district, Binh Thuan province where malaria is endemic. The results showed that: there is a chased relationships between natural, environmental and socio-economic indicators and malaria transmission in different areas of the district. The malaria morbidity rate from 1996 to 2002 and environmental parameters such as land cover, vegetation, climate, meteorology... were used for constructing a map to show the risk of malaria in the district through the retrospective and existing data SPOT, LANDSAT and ASTER satellite imageries. Based on this malaria risk map, the malaria situation and epidemic can be detected and prevented.