Testing the evolutionary potential of an alpine plant: Phenotypic plasticity in response to growth temperature far outweighs parental environmental effects and other genetic causes of variation.

Phenotypic plasticity and rapid evolution are fundamental processes by which organisms can maintain their function and fitness in the face of environmental changes. Here we quantified the plasticity and evolutionary potential of an alpine herb Wahlenbergia ceracea. Utilising its mixed-mating system, we generated outcrossed and self-pollinated families that were grown in either cool or warm environments, and that had parents that had also been grown in either cool or warm environments. We then analysed the contribution of environmental and genetic factors to variation in a range of phenotypic traits including phenology, leaf mass per area, photosynthetic function, thermal tolerance, and reproductive fitness. The strongest effect was that of current growth temperature, indicating strong phenotypic plasticity. All traits except thermal tolerance were plastic, whereby warm-grown plants flowered earlier, grew larger, produced more reproductive stems compared to cool-grown plants. Flowering onset and biomass were heritable and under selection, with early flowering and larger plants having higher relative fitness. There was little evidence for transgenerational plasticity, maternal effects, or genotype-by-environment interactions. Inbreeding delayed flowering and reduced reproductive fitness and biomass. Overall, we found that W. ceracea has the capacity to respond rapidly to climate warming via plasticity, and the potential for evolutionary change.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi attenuate negative impact of drought on soil functions.

Although positive effects of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi on plant performance under drought have been well documented, how AM fungi regulate soil functions and multifunctionality requires further investigation. In this study, we first performed a meta-analysis to test the potential role of AM fungi in maintaining soil functions under drought. Then, we conducted a greenhouse experiment, using a pair of hyphal ingrowth cores to spatially separate the growth of AM fungal hyphae and plant roots, to further investigate the effects of AM fungi on soil multifunctionality and its resistance against drought. Our meta-analysis showed that AM fungi promote multiple soil functions, including soil aggregation, microbial biomass and activities of soil enzymes related to nutrient cycling. The greenhouse experiment further demonstrated that AM fungi attenuate the negative impact of drought on these soil functions and thus multifunctionality, therefore, increasing their resistance against drought. Moreover, this buffering effect of AM fungi persists across different frequencies of water supply and plant species. These findings highlight the unique role of AM fungi in maintaining multiple soil functions by mitigating the negative impact of drought. Our study highlights the importance of AM fungi as a nature-based solution to sustaining multiple soil functions in a world where drought events are intensifying.

Listening to animal behavior to understand changing ecosystems.

Interpreting sound gives powerful insight into the health of ecosystems. Beyond detecting the presence of wildlife, bioacoustic signals can reveal their behavior. However, behavioral bioacoustic information is underused because identifying the function and context of animals' sounds remains challenging. A growing acoustic toolbox is allowing researchers to begin decoding bioacoustic signals by linking individual and population-level sensing. Yet, studies integrating acoustic tools for behavioral insight across levels of biological organization remain scarce. We aim to catalyze the emerging field of behavioral bioacoustics by synthesizing recent successes and rising analytical, logistical, and ethical challenges. Because behavior typically represents animals' first response to environmental change, we posit that behavioral bioacoustics will provide theoretical and applied insights into animals' adaptations to global change.

Land-cover change in Cuba and implications for the area of distribution of a specialist's host-plant.

Changes in land cover directly affect biodiversity. Here, we assessed land-cover change in Cuba in the past 35 years and analyzed how this change may affect the distribution of Omphalea plants and Urania boisduvalii moths. We analyzed the vegetation cover of the Cuban archipelago for 1985 and 2020. We used Google Earth Engine to classify two satellite image compositions into seven cover types: forest and shrubs, mangrove, soil without vegetation cover, wetlands, pine forest, agriculture, and water bodies. We considered four different areas for quantifications of land-cover change: (1) Cuban archipelago, (2) protected areas, (3) areas of potential distribution of Omphalea, and (4) areas of potential distribution of the plant within the protected areas. We found that "forest and shrubs", which is cover type in which Omphalea populations have been reported, has increased significantly in Cuba in the past 35 years, and that most of the gained forest and shrub areas were agricultural land in the past. This same pattern was observed in the areas of potential distribution of Omphalea; whereas almost all cover types were mostly stable inside the protected areas. The transformation of agricultural areas into forest and shrubs could represent an interesting opportunity for biodiversity conservation in Cuba. Other detailed studies about biodiversity composition in areas of forest and shrubs gain would greatly benefit our understanding of the value of such areas for conservation.

Path analysis for controlling climate change in global aviation.

The aviation industry's emissions have had a significant impact on global climate change. This study focuses on carbon emission trading schemes, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), and hydrogen energy, as vital means for the aviation industry to reduce emissions. To evaluate the climate effects of global routes under four scenarios (24 sub-scenarios) until 2100, this study proposes the Aviation-FAIR (Aviation-Finite Amplitude Impulse Response) method. The findings reveal that while CO2 emissions and concentrations are significant, other emissions, such as N2O and CH4, have a greater effective radiative forcing (ERF) and contribute significantly to climate change. Moreover, SAFs are more effective in mitigating airline pollutant emissions than relying solely on carbon trading schemes. The effectiveness of hydrogen fuel cells may be hindered by technical limitations compared to hydrogen turbine engines. The findings of this study provide reference for the global aviation industry to adopt emission reduction measures.

The adaptive mechanisms of the marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii to long-term high CO2 and warming.

While it is known that increased dissolved CO2 concentrations and rising sea surface temperature (ocean warming) can act interactively on marine phytoplankton, the ultimate molecular mechanisms underlying this interaction on a long-term evolutionary scale are relatively unexplored. Here, we performed transcriptomics and quantitative metabolomics analyses, along with a physiological trait analysis, on the marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii adapted for approximately 3.5 years to warming and/or high CO2 conditions. We show that long-term warming has more pronounced impacts than elevated CO2 on gene expression, resulting in a greater number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs). The largest number of DEGs was observed in populations adapted to warming + high CO2, indicating a potential synergistic interaction between these factors. We further identified the metabolic pathways in which the DEGs function and the metabolites with significantly changed abundances. We found that ribosome biosynthesis-related pathways were upregulated to meet the increased material and energy demands after warming or warming in combination with high CO2. This resulted in the upregulation of energy metabolism pathways such as glycolysis, photorespiration, the tricarboxylic acid cycle, and the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway, as well as the associated metabolites. These metabolic changes help compensate for reduced photochemical efficiency and photosynthesis. Our study emphasizes that the upregulation of ribosome biosynthesis plays an essential role in facilitating the adaptation of phytoplankton to global ocean changes and elucidates the interactive effects of warming and high CO2 on the adaptation of marine phytoplankton in the context of global change.

Multilayer biological networks to upscale marine research to global change-smart management and sustainable resource use.

Human activities are having a massive negative impact on biodiversity and ecological processes worldwide. The rate and magnitude of ecological transformations induced by climate change, habitat destruction, overexploitation and pollution are now so substantial that a sixth mass extinction event is currently underway. The biodiversity crisis of the Anthropocene urges scientists to put forward a transformative vision to promote the conservation of biodiversity, and thus indirectly the preservation of ecosystem functions. Here, we identify pressing issues in global change biology research and propose an integrative framework based on multilayer biological networks as a tool to support conservation actions and marine risk assessments in multi-stressor scenarios. Multilayer networks can integrate different levels of environmental and biotic complexity, enabling us to combine information on molecular, physiological and behaviour responses, species interactions and biotic communities. The ultimate aim of this framework is to link human-induced environmental changes to species physiology, fitness, biogeography and ecosystem impacts across vast seascapes and time frames, to help guide solutions to address biodiversity loss and ecological tipping points. Further, we also define our current ability to adopt a widespread use of multilayer networks within ecology, evolution and conservation by providing examples of case-studies. We also assess which approaches are ready to be transferred and which ones require further development before use. We conclude that multilayer biological networks will be crucial to inform (using reliable multi-levels integrative indicators) stakeholders and support their decision-making concerning the sustainable use of resources and marine conservation.

Biomarker responsiveness in Norwegian Sea mussels, Mytilus edulis, exposed at low temperatures to aqueous fractions of crude oil alone and combined with dispersant.

Biological effects of aqueous fractions of a crude oil, alone or in combination with dispersant, were investigated in mussels, Mytilus edulis, exposed at three temperatures (5, 10 and 15 °C). Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) tissue concentrations were determined, together with genotoxicity, oxidative stress and general stress biomarkers and the Integrated Biological Response (IBR) index. The bioaccumulation of individual PAHs varied depending on the exposure temperature, with relevant bioaccumulation of phenantrene and fluoranthene at 5 °C and heavier (e.g. 5-rings) PAHs at 15 °C. The values and response profiles of each particular biomarker varied with exposure time, concentration of the oil aqueous fraction and dispersant addition, as well as with exposure temperature. Indeed, PAH bioaccumulation and biomarker responsiveness exhibited specific recognizable patterns in mussels exposed at low temperatures. Thus, genotoxicity was recorded early and transient at 5 °C and delayed but unremitting at 10-15 °C. Catalase activity presented a temperature-dependent response profile similar to the genotoxicity biomarker; however, glutathione-S-transferase responsiveness was more intricate. Lysosomal membrane stability in digestive cells decreased more markedly at 5 °C than at higher temperatures and the histological appearance of the digestive gland tissue was temperature-specific, which was interpreted as the combined effects of PAH toxicity and cold stress. It can be concluded that the profile and level of the biological effects are definitely different at low temperatures naturally occurring in the Arctic/Subarctic region (e.g. 5 °C) than at higher temperatures closer to the thermal optimum of this species (10-15 °C).

Elevated atmospheric CO2 has small, species-specific effects on pollen chemistry and plant growth across flowering plant species.

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) can affect plant growth and physiology, which can, in turn, impact herbivorous insects, including by altering pollen or plant tissue nutrition. Previous research suggests that eCO2 can reduce pollen nutrition in some species, but it is unknown whether this effect is consistent across flowering plant species. We experimentally quantified the effects of eCO2 across multiple flowering plant species on plant growth in 9 species and pollen chemistry (%N an estimate for protein content and nutrition in 12 species; secondary chemistry in 5 species) in greenhouses. For pollen nutrition, only buckwheat significantly responded to eCO2, with %N increasing in eCO2; CO2 treatment did not affect pollen amino acid composition but altered secondary metabolites in buckwheat and sunflower. Plant growth under eCO2 exhibited two trends across species: plant height was taller in 44% of species and flower number was affected for 63% of species (3 species with fewer and 2 species with more flowers). The remaining growth metrics (leaf number, above-ground biomass, flower size, and flowering initiation) showed divergent, species-specific responses, if any. Our results indicate that future eCO2 is unlikely to uniformly change pollen chemistry or plant growth across flowering species but may have the potential to alter ecological interactions, or have particularly important effects on specialized pollinators.

[Updating the northern tsetse distribution limit in Chad in the context of global change]. / Réactualisation de la limite nord de distribution des glossines au Tchad dans un contexte de changement global.

Background - Rationale: Tsetse flies (Diptera: Glossinidae) are obligate bloodfeeders that occur exclusively in Sub-Saharan Africa, where they are the vectors of trypanosomes causing HAT (human African trypanosomiasis) and AAT (African animal trypanosomiasis). In Chad, tsetse flies occur only in the most southern part of the country because of its favorable bioclimatic conditions. However, despite the importance of HAT and AAT in this country, very little is known about the current tsetse distribution, in particular its northern limit, which is of key importance for the surveillance of these diseases. Material and methods - Results: A total of 217 biconical traps were deployed in 2021 and 2022 from the West to the East around the formerly known northern limit, resulting in 1,024 tsetse caught belonging to three different taxa: Glossina morsitans submorsitans (57%), G. tachinoides (39%) and G. fuscipes fuscipes (4%). In addition to the information gathered on the presence/absence of each tsetse taxon, we show a strong North-South shift of the northen tsetse distribution limit as compared to the previous works from 1966 to 1996, and a growing spatial fragmentation in more and more discrete pockets of tsetse presence. Discussion - Conclusion: This North-South shift of the northern tsetse distribution limit in Chad is the likely consequence of the combined effect of severe draughts that affected the country, and increasing human pressure on land. This update of the tsetse northern limit will be of help to the national programmes in charge of HAT and AAT.

Half of global islands have reached critical area thresholds for undergoing rapid increases in biological invasions.

Biological invasions are among the threats to global biodiversity and social sustainability, especially on islands. Identifying the threshold of area at which non-native species begin to increase abruptly is crucial for early prevention strategies. The small-island effect (SIE) was proposed to quantify the nonlinear relationship between native species richness and area but has not yet been applied to non-native species and thus to predict the key breakpoints at which established non-native species start to increase rapidly. Based on an extensive global dataset, including 769 species of non-native birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles established on 4277 islands across 54 archipelagos, we detected a high prevalence of SIEs across 66.7% of archipelagos. Approximately 50% of islands have reached the threshold area and thus may be undergoing a rapid increase in biological invasions. SIEs were more likely to occur in those archipelagos with more non-native species introduction events, more established historical non-native species, lower habitat diversity and larger archipelago area range. Our findings may have important implications not only for targeted surveillance of biological invasions on global islands but also for predicting the responses of both non-native and native species to ongoing habitat fragmentation under sustained land-use modification and climate change.

Patterns and inferred causes of liana mortality in a tropical forest.

Lianas are major contributors to tropical forest dynamics, yet we know little about their mortality. Using overlapping censuses of the lianas and trees across a 50 ha stand of moist tropical forest, we contrasted community-wide patterns of liana mortality with relatively well-studied patterns of tree mortality to quantify patterns of liana death and identify contributing factors. Liana mortality rates were 172% higher than tree mortality rates, but species-level mortality rates of lianas were similar to trees with 'fast' life-history strategies and both growth forms exhibited similar spatial and size-dependent patterns. The mortality rates of liana saplings (<2.1 cm in diameter), which represent about 50% of liana individuals, decreased with increasing disturbance severity and remained consistently low during post-disturbance stand thinning. In contrast, larger liana individuals and trees of all sizes had elevated mortality rates in response to disturbance and their mortality rates decreased over time since disturbance. Within undisturbed forest patches, liana mortality rates increased with increasing soil fertility in a manner similar to trees. The distinct responses of liana saplings to disturbance appeared to distinguish liana mortality from that of trees, whereas similarities in their patterns of death suggest that there are common drivers of woody plant mortality.

Human-modified habitats imperil ornamented dragonflies less than their non-ornamented counterparts at local, regional, and continental scales.

Biologists have long wondered how sexual ornamentation influences a species' risk of extinction. Because the evolution of condition-dependent ornamentation can reduce intersexual conflict and accelerate the fixation of advantageous alleles, some theory predicts that ornamented taxa can be buffered against extinction in novel and/or stressful environments. Nevertheless, evidence from the wild remains limited. Here, we show that ornamented dragonflies are less vulnerable to extinction across multiple spatial scales. Population-occupancy models across the Western United States reveal that ornamented species have become more common relative to non-ornamented species over >100 years. Phylogenetic analyses indicate that ornamented species exhibit lower continent-wide extinction risk than non-ornamented species. Finally, spatial analyses of local dragonfly assemblages suggest that ornamented species possess advantages over non-ornamented taxa at living in habitats that have been converted to farms and cities. Together, these findings suggest that ornamented taxa are buffered against contemporary extinction at local, regional, and continental scales.

Phytoplankton biomass in northern lakes reveals a complex response to global change.

Global change may introduce fundamental alterations in phytoplankton biomass and community structure that can alter the productivity of northern lakes. In this study, we utilized Swedish and Finnish monitoring data from lakes that are spatially (135 lakes) and temporally (1995-2019, 110 lakes) extensive to assess how phytoplankton biomass (PB) of dominant phytoplankton groups related to changes in water temperature, pH and key nutrients [total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), total organic carbon (TOC), iron (Fe)] along spatial (Fennoscandia) and temporal (25 years) gradients. Using a machine learning approach, we found that TP was the most important determinant of total PB and biomass of a specific species of Raphidophyceae - Gonyostomum semen - and Cyanobacteria (both typically with adverse impacts on food-webs and water quality) in spatial analyses, while Fe and pH were second in importance for G. semen and TN and pH were second and third in importance for Cyanobacteria. However, in temporal analyses, decreasing Fe and increasing pH and TOC were associated with a decrease in G. semen and an increase in Cyanobacteria. In addition, in many lakes increasing TOC seemed to have generated browning to an extent that significantly reduced PB. The identified discrepancy between the spatial and temporal results suggests that substitutions of data for space-for-time may not be adequate to characterize long-term effects of global change on phytoplankton. Further, we found that total PB exhibited contrasting temporal trends (increasing in northern- and decreasing in southern Fennoscandia), with the decline in total PB being more pronounced than the increase. Among phytoplankton, G. semen biomass showed the strongest decline, while cyanobacterial biomass showed the strongest increase over 25 years. Our findings suggest that progressing browning and changes in Fe and pH promote significant temporal changes in PB and shifts in phytoplankton community structures in northern lakes.

Nutrient dilution and the future of herbivore populations.

Nutrient dilution (ND) - the decrease in the concentration of nutritional elements in plant tissue - arises from an increase in the mass of carbohydrates and/or a decrease in the 20+ essential elements. Increasing CO2 levels and its promotion of biomass are linked to nutrient dilution. We build a case for nutrient dilution as a key driver in global declines in herbivore abundance. Herbivores must build element-rich animal tissue from nutrient-poor plant tissue, and their abundance commonly increases with fertilization of both macro- and micronutrients. We predict the global impacts of nutrient dilution will be magnified in some of Earth's most biodiverse, highly productive, and/or nutrient-poor ecosystems and should favor specific traits of herbivores, including sap-feeding and ruminant microbiomes.

Studying interactions among anthropogenic stressors in freshwater ecosystems: A systematic review of 2396 multiple-stressor experiments.

Understanding the interactions among anthropogenic stressors is critical for effective conservation and management of ecosystems. Freshwater scientists have invested considerable resources in conducting factorial experiments to disentangle stressor interactions by testing their individual and combined effects. However, the diversity of stressors and systems studied has hindered previous syntheses of this body of research. To overcome this challenge, we used a novel machine learning framework to identify relevant studies from over 235,000 publications. Our synthesis resulted in a new dataset of 2396 multiple-stressor experiments in freshwater systems. By summarizing the methods used in these studies, quantifying trends in the popularity of the investigated stressors, and performing co-occurrence analysis, we produce the most comprehensive overview of this diverse field of research to date. We provide both a taxonomy grouping the 909 investigated stressors into 31 classes and an open-source and interactive version of the dataset (https://jamesaorr.shinyapps.io/freshwater-multiple-stressors/). Inspired by our results, we provide a framework to help clarify whether statistical interactions detected by factorial experiments align with stressor interactions of interest, and we outline general guidelines for the design of multiple-stressor experiments relevant to any system. We conclude by highlighting the research directions required to better understand freshwater ecosystems facing multiple stressors.

Stability in change: building a stable ecological security pattern in Northeast China under climate and land use changes.

Climate change and land use change caused by human activities have a profound impact on ecological security. Simulating the spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service value and ecological security patterns under different carbon emission scenarios in the future is of great significance for formulating sustainable development policies. This study quantified the four major ecosystem services (habitat quality, water retention, soil erosion, and carbon storage) in Northeast China (NC), identified ecological source areas, and constructed a stable ecological security pattern. The results show that the spatial patterns of soil erosion, carbon storage, water retention, and habitat quality, the four major ecosystem services in NC, are relatively stable in the next 30 years, and there is no significant difference from the current spatial pattern distribution. The SSP1-2.6 carbon emission scenario is a priority model for the development of NC in the next 30 years. In this carbon emission scenario, the NC has the largest ecological resources (191,177 km2) and the least comprehensive resistance value (850.006 × 10-4). At the same time, the relative resistance of the corridor in this scenario is the smallest, and the area of the mandatory reserve pinch points is the least. The ecological corridors in the SSP1-2.6 scenario form a network distribution among the ecological sources, connecting several large ecological sources as a whole. This study fills the knowledge gap in building a stable ecological security pattern in NC under the background of global change, and provides a scientific basis for the decision-making of regional ecological security and land resource management.

Ocean acidification alters microeukaryotic and bacterial food web interactions in a eutrophic subtropical mesocosm.

Ocean acidification (OA) is known to influence biological and ecological processes, mainly focusing on its impacts on single species, but little has been documented on how OA may alter plankton community interactions. Here, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with ambient (∼410 ppmv) and high (1000 ppmv) CO2 concentrations in a subtropical eutrophic region of the East China Sea and examined the community dynamics of microeukaryotes, bacterioplankton and microeukaryote-attached bacteria in the enclosed coastal seawater. The OA treatment with elevated CO2 affected taxa as the phytoplankton bloom stages progressed, with a 72.89% decrease in relative abundance of the protist Cercozoa on day 10 and a 322% increase in relative abundance of Stramenopile dominated by diatoms, accompanied by a 29.54% decrease in relative abundance of attached Alphaproteobacteria on day 28. Our study revealed that protozoans with different prey preferences had differing sensitivity to high CO2, and attached bacteria were more significantly affected by high CO2 compared to bacterioplankton. Our findings indicate that high CO2 changed the co-occurrence network complexity and stability of microeukaryotes more than those of bacteria. Furthermore, high CO2 was found to alter the proportions of potential interactions between phytoplankton and their predators, as well as microeukaryotes and their attached bacteria in the networks. The changes in the relative abundances and interactions of microeukaryotes between their predators in response to high CO2 revealed in our study suggest that high CO2 may have profound impacts on marine food webs.

When resilience is not enough: 2022 extreme marine heatwave threatens climatic refugia for a habitat-forming Mediterranean octocoral.

Climate change is impacting ecosystems worldwide, and the Mediterranean Sea is no exception. Extreme climatic events, such as marine heat waves (MHWs), are increasing in frequency, extent and intensity during the last decades, which has been associated with an increase in mass mortality events for multiple species. Coralligenous assemblages, where the octocoral Paramuricea clavata lives, are strongly affected by MHWs. The Medes Islands Marine Reserve (NW Mediterranean) was considered a climate refugia for P. clavata, as their populations were showing some resilience to these changing conditions. In this study, we assessed the impacts of the MHWs that occurred between 2016 and 2022 in seven shallow populations of the octocoral P. clavata from a Mediterranean Marine Protected Area. The years that the mortality rates increased significantly were associated with the ones with strong MHWs, 2022 being the one with higher mortalities. In 2022, with 50 MHW days, the proportion of total affected colonies was almost 70%, with a proportion of the injured surface of almost 40%, reaching levels never attained in our study site since the monitoring was started. We also found spatial variability between the monitored populations. Whereas few of them showed low levels of mortality, others lost around 75% of their biomass. The significant impacts documented here raise concerns about the future of shallow P. clavata populations across the Mediterranean, suggesting that the resilience of this species may not be maintained to sustain these populations face the ongoing warming trends.

El canvi climatic està impactant els ecosistemes arreu del planeta, i el Mar Mediterrani no n'és una excepció. Els esdeveniments climàtics extrems, com ara les onades de calor marines, estan augmentant en freqüència, extensió i intensitat en les darreres dècades, i estan sent associades a un increment dels esdeveniments de mortalitat massiva de múltiples espècies. El coral·ligen, on hi viu l'octocorall Paramuricea clavata, està altament afectat per les onades de calor marines. La Reserva Marina de les Illes Medes (NO del Mediterrani) es considerava un refugi climàtic per aquesta espècie, degut a que les seves poblacions mostraven certa resiliència a les condicions canviants. En aquest estudi hem avaluat els impactes de les onades de calor marines succeïdes entre els anys 2016 i 2022 a set poblacions someres de l'octocorall P. clavata, en una Àrea Marina Protegida del Mediterrani. Els anys en els quals les taxes de mortalitat van incrementar significativament s'associen amb els anys amb fortes onades de calor marines, sent el 2022 l'any amb la mortalitat més elevada. Al 2022, amb 50 dies d'onada de calor, la proporció total de colònies afectades va ser prop del 70%, amb un percentatge de superfície afectada de gairebé el 40%, arribant a valors mai observats en el lloc d'estudi des de que es va iniciar el seguiment d'aquestes poblacions. També hem observat variabilitat espacial entre les poblacions mostrejades. Mentre que algunes d'elles han mostrat poca mortalitat, altres han perdut al voltant del 75% de la seva biomassa. Els impactes documentats en aquest estudi mostren un futur preocupant de les poblacions someres de P. clavata arreu del Mediterrani, i això suggereix que la resiliència d'aquesta espècie podria no ser suficient per mantenir les seves poblacions en l'escenari d'escalfament que es preveu.

Can precipitation intermittency predict flooding?

A mystery has emerged as to why patterns of increasing extreme rainfall have not been accompanied by similar levels of flooding, garnering growing attention given concerns over future flood risks. Antecedent moisture conditions have been proposed as the missing explanatory factor. Yet, reasons for moisture variability prior to flooding remain largely unstudied. Here, we evaluate the potential utility of precipitation intermittency, defined as the dry spell length prior to a flood, to explain the variability of flooding over 108 watersheds from 1950 to 2022. Flood magnitude is shown to be sensitive to intermittency, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions (PET/P > 0.84) and for basins with low soil field capacity (<0.31 m3/m3). Following extended dry spells >20 days, floods are only possible from the most intense storms, whereas a wider range of storms can produce flooding for shorter intermittency. The flood probability decreases by approximately 0.5 % for each additional day of dry spell, with overall flood probabilities being up to 30 % lower following extended dry periods. These results underscore the potential utility of precipitation intermittency for diagnosing current and future flood risks.