An econometric study of the number of undernourished people in Colombia from 2000 to 2021

The importance of food (in)security has been one of the United Nations Sustainable Development's main goals. Over 828 million people worldwide cannot acquire enough food to meet the minimum daily dietary energy requirements (undernourished). Therefore, the present study examines the factors that affect the number of undernourished people in Colombia by assessing macroeconomic data for the period 2000-2021 including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, unemployment, and inflation rates. A quantitative, empirical, correlation design was used to examine and describe the relationship among the variables. The findings showed that the proposed variables presented the correct signs, were statistically significant, and were in line with the economic theory Thus, the study concluded that although income shocks brought on by inflation and unemployment undoubtedly impact household food (in)security, other factors must also be considered for policy and practice to effectively reduce food insecurity for households.

La importancia de la (in)seguridad alimentaria ha sido uno de los principales objetivos del Desarrollo Sostenible de las Naciones Unidas y más de 820 millones de personas en el mundo no pueden adquirir suficientes alimentos para satisfacer los requerimientos mínimos diarios de energía dietética (subalimentadas). Por lo tanto, el presente estudio examina los factores que afectan el número de personas subalimentadas en Colombia mediante la evaluación de datos macroeconómicos para el período 2000-2021, incluido el producto interno bruto (PIB) per cápita, el desempleo y las tasas de inflación. Se utilizó un diseño cuantitativo, empírico y correlacional, para examinar y describir la relación entre las variables. Los hallazgos mostraron que las variables propuestas presentaron los signos correctos, fueron estadísticamente significativas y de acuerdo con el propuesto por la teoría económica. Por lo tanto, el estudio concluyó que, si bien los impactos en los ingresos causados por la inflación y el desempleo indudablemente afectan la inseguridad alimentaria de los hogares, también es importante considerar otros factores en los esfuerzos de políticas y prácticas para mitigar la inseguridad alimentaria de los hogares.

A importância da (in)segurança alimentar tem sido um dos principais objetivos do Desenvolvimento Sustentável das Nações Unidas e mais de 820 milhões de pessoas no mundo não podem adquirir alimentos suficientes para atender às necessidades energéticas diárias mínimas (subalimentadas). Por tanto o presente estudo examina os fatores que afetam o número de pessoas subalimentadas na Colômbia, avaliando dados macroeconômicos para o período 2000-2021, incluindo produto interno bruto (PIB) per capita, desemprego e taxas de inflação. Um desenho quantitativo, empírico e de correlação foi usado para examinar e descrever a relação entre as variáveis. Os achados mostraram que as variáveis propostas apresentaram os sinais corretos, foram estatisticamente significativas e em consonância com a teoria econômica. Assim, o estudo concluiu que, embora os choques de renda causados pela inflação e pelo desemprego indubitavelmente afetem a insegurança alimentar das famílias, outros fatores também são importantes a serem considerados nos esforços de políticas e práticas para mitigar a insegurança alimentar das famílias.

Economic growth and greenhouse gases in Brazilian States: is the environmental Kuznets curve applicable hypothesis?

The aim of this study was to analyze the existence of the Kuznets environmental curve (EKC) hypothesis for a diverse spectrum of environmental pollutants (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) from the Brazilian states from 1980 to 2020. In the Kuznets hypothesis, economic growth, represented by GDP per capita, grows inflection in relation to environmental degradation. Upon reaching a certain point, the relationship becomes inversely opposite, being a positive trend of growth and a retract to environmental indicators, as in the case of greenhouse gases. The application of regression models in strict observance of Grossman and Krueger's EKC econometric model (1995) allowed a critical analysis of the Brazilian empirical model relative to pollutant emissions. The results show the corroboration of the EKC hypothesis for carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide, but not methane gas. Additionally, the discussion on the subject was extended to the debate about Brazil on the world stage. Brazil is on the world stage as a major influencer in environmental issues, so everything empirically contributes, both to academia and public managers, by presenting evidence of the relationship of economic growth aligned with sustainable development. Thus, the study provides contributions to professionals, researchers, and international readers. On the other hand, this study shows as political implications the need for improvements and reformulations of environmental policies in favor of mitigating environmental degradation.

Public Health Measures and Prevention of Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease.

Hazardous alcohol consumption causes approximately 4% of deaths globally, constituting one of the leading risk factors for the burden of the disease worldwide. Alcohol has several health consequences, such as alcohol-associated liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, nonliver neoplasms, physical injury, cardiac disease, and psychiatric disorders. Alcohol misuse significantly affects workforce productivity, with elevated direct and indirect economic costs. Due to the high impact of alcohol consumption on the population, public health has led to the development of a range of strategies to reduce its harmful effects. Regulatory public health policies (PHP) for alcohol can exist at the global, regional, international, national, or subnational levels. Effective strategies incorporate a multilevel, multicomponent approach, targeting multiple determinants of drinking and alcohol-related harms. The World Health Organization categorizes the PHP into eight categories: national plan to fight the harmful consequences of alcohol, national license and production and selling control, taxes control and pricing policies, limiting drinking age, restrictions on alcohol access, driving-related alcohol policies, control over advertising and promotion, and government monitoring systems. These policies are supported by evidence from different populations, demonstrating that determinants of alcohol use depend on several factors such as socioeconomic level, age, sex, ethnicity, production, availability, marketing, and others. Although most policies have a significant individual effect, a higher number of PHP are associated with a lower burden of disease due to alcohol. The excessive consequences of alcohol constitute a call for action, and clinicians should advocate for developing and implementing a new PHP on alcohol consumption.

COVID-19 and zoonoses in Brazil: Environmental scan of one health preparedness and response.

The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic reinforced the central role of the One Health (OH) approach, as a multisectoral and multidisciplinary perspective, to tackle health threats at the human-animal-environment interface. This study assessed Brazilian preparedness and response to COVID-19 and zoonoses with a focus on the OH approach and equity dimensions. We conducted an environmental scan using a protocol developed as part of a multi-country study. The article selection process resulted in 45 documents: 79 files and 112 references on OH; 41 files and 81 references on equity. The OH and equity aspects are poorly represented in the official documents regarding the COVID-19 response, either at the federal and state levels. Brazil has a governance infrastructure that allows for the response to infectious diseases, including zoonoses, as well as the fight against antimicrobial resistance through the OH approach. However, the response to the pandemic did not fully utilize the resources of the Brazilian state, due to the lack of central coordination and articulation among the sectors involved. Brazil is considered an area of high risk for emergence of zoonoses mainly due to climate change, large-scale deforestation and urbanization, high wildlife biodiversity, wide dry frontier, and poor control of wild animals' traffic. Therefore, encouraging existing mechanisms for collaboration across sectors and disciplines, with the inclusion of vulnerable populations, is required for making a multisectoral OH approach successful in the country.

Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model.

This paper proposes a time-series stochastic socioeconomic model for analyzing the impact of the pandemic on the regulated distribution electricity market. The proposed methodology combines the optimized tariff model (socioeconomic market model) and the random walk concept (risk assessment technique) to ensure robustness/accuracy. The model enables both a past and future analysis of the impact of the pandemic, which is essential to prepare regulatory agencies beforehand and allow enough time for the development of efficient public policies. By applying it to six Brazilian concession areas, results demonstrate that consumers have been/will be heavily affected in general, mainly due to the high electricity tariffs that took place with the pandemic, overcoming the natural trend of the market. In contrast, the model demonstrates that the pandemic did not/will not significantly harm power distribution companies in general, mainly due to the loan granted by the regulator agency, named COVID-account. Socioeconomic welfare losses averaging 500 (MR$/month) are estimated for the equivalent concession area, i.e., the sum of the six analyzed concession areas. Furthermore, this paper proposes a stochastic optimization problem to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the electricity market over time, considering the interests of consumers, power distribution companies, and the government. Results demonstrate that it is successful as the tariffs provided by the algorithm compensate for the reduction in demand while increasing the socioeconomic welfare of the market.

Epidemiological profile, occupational accidents, and socioeconomic characteristics of workers in the state of Amapá, Brazil: a time series analysis (2007-2017).

INTRODUCTION: The state of Amapá is located in Brazil's Legal Amazon and comprises 16 municipalities. Its history is marked by social vulnerability and industrial mining; therefore, its current socioeconomic and occupational context should be analyzed considering possible sociohistorical and geographic influences. OBJECTIVES: To analyze and/or describe the epidemiological profile of workers, occupational accidents, the socioeconomic context, and time evolution of the number of workers in the state and their relationship with the state's gross domestic product. METHODS: This is an analytic time series study based on official public data. We used a simple regression test to analyze the relationship between the number of workers and gross domestic product and to assess the time trend of the number of workers. The studied period was from 2007 to 2017. RESULTS: The number of workers presented an increasing trend over time (R2 = 0.902; p < 0.001), with a relative increase of 49.8% between 2007 and 2017. We observed a positive relationship between the annual increase in the number of workers and the state's gross domestic product (R2 = 0.899; p < 0.001). The economic activity with the highest mean number of workers was public administration, defense, and social security. The highest socioeconomic indicators were observed in the state capital Macapá. Non-hazardous waste management was the activity concentrating the highest absolute number of occupational accidents. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlighted important socioeconomic contrasts within the state. The significant increases in the gross domestic product and number of workers are signs of development, but the high number of occupational accidents represents a serious public health problem.

An environmental measurement for a dynamic and endogenous global environmental Kuznets curve in the global context.

Planetary boundaries (PB) is a novel conceptual framework that assesses the state of processes fundamental to the stability of the Earth system. Studies argue a non-linear relationship between economy and environmental degradation, known as the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). We postulate this inverted-U association between PB and economic output in a worldwide sample. This paper, therefore, examines the correlation between changes in environmental conditions and global economic growth, incorporating the growth rate of key control variables (population, financial development, merchandise trade and regulations). Thus, we intend to identify and address the main gaps in these EKC studies and analyse the impacts of worldwide economic growth on global environmental change. PB variables are identified as the more integrated perspective with regard to this change. These planetary boundaries include various proxies: global CO2 concentration as a climate change proxy, threatened species for biodiversity loss, the total ozone for ozone depletion, mean surface ocean hydrogen ion concentration for ocean acidification and global fertiliser consumption for biochemical cycles. Under this integrated perspective, the EKC hypothesis is supported for climate change and ocean acidification panels using a dynamic system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. Meanwhile, biochemical cycles, ozone depletion and freshwater use, land change and biodiversity loss boundaries do not support the existence of the EKC shape using the same methodology. The results provide an additional and novel view to be factored into the decisions of policymaker and investment institutions to contribute to sustainable development in all countries.

Relationship between GDP per capita and traffic accidents in Brazilian municipalities in 2005, 2010 and 2015 / A relação entre PIB per capita e os acidentes de transporte nos municípios brasileiros, em 2005, 2010 e 2015

ABSTRACT: Objective: The main objective of this paper was to analyze the relation between GDP and three variables linked to traffic accidents in Brazilian municipalities: traffic accident mortality, deaths per vehicle; and vehicles per inhabitant. Methods: 2005, 2010 and 2015 traffic accident (TA) mortality rates were estimated using a three-year moving average and were standardized; then, we applied the empirical Bayes estimator (EBE). Fatality rates (deaths per vehicle) were also based on EBE. The variable vehicles per inhabitant considered the ratio between the fleet and the population at municipal level. For every studied year, we estimated linear regression models between GDP and the interest variables. Results: The variables distribution indicates that, between 2005 and 2015, GDP and vehicles per inhabitant kept the same rising relationship. Fatality rates show a decreasing association with GDP. The distribution of mortality by TA had an inverted U-shaped pattern. The model coefficients practically did not change for the vehicle per inhabitant. Estimated association between deaths per vehicle and GDP kept the same sign, but diminished between 2005 and 2015. Model coefficient sign changed in 2015 for TA mortality. Conclusion: Similar to what was observed in developed countries, the relation between mortality by traffic accidents and GDP changed in the analyzed period.

RESUMO: Objetivo: O artigo pretende analisar a relação entre o produto interno bruto (PIB) per capita e três variáveis relacionadas aos acidentes de transporte (AT) nos municípios brasileiros: a mortalidade por AT, as mortes por veículo e o número de veículos por pessoa. Métodos: As taxas de mortalidade por AT foram estimadas (2005, 2010 e 2015) por meio do estimador bayesiano empírico (EBE). A taxa de mortalidade por veículo foi também estimada pelo EBE. O número de veículos por pessoa foi baseado na razão entre a frota de automóveis e a população residente. Para os três anos em análise, estimamos um modelo de regressão linear entre o PIB per capita municipal e as três variáveis de interesse. Resultados: A distribuição das variáveis mostra que a relação entre o PIB e o número de veículos por pessoa se manteve crescente ao longo dos anos e foi sempre negativa, considerando-se as mortes por veículo. A taxa de mortalidade por AT apresentou distribuição próxima a um U invertido. Os coeficientes do modelo de regressão praticamente não variaram para a relação entre PIB e os veículos por habitante. O sinal para o modelo com a taxa de mortalidade por veículo manteve-se o mesmo (negativo), mas apresentou diminuição. A taxa mortalidade por AT, por sua vez, apresentou inversão do sinal em 2015. Conclusão: De modo similar ao observado nos países desenvolvidos, parece ter havido inversão na relação entre mortalidade por AT e PIB nos municípios brasileiros entre 2005 e 2015.

Glyphosate and its toxicology: A scientometric review.

Glyphosate (Gly) is a broad-spectrum herbicide and currently one of the most studied pesticides. New Gly-related data are published daily worldwide. Despite the large number of publications, there is no published scientometric revision that presently addresses this issue systematically. We aimed to scientometrically analyze the publication patterns of main topics related to Gly research. Web of Science data was obtained searching the topic "Glyphosate" (10,069 publications). Toxicology was the most influential area, and a subset was delimited containing the categories "Environmental Sciences", "Toxicology" and "Ecology" (2077 publications). The datasets were analyzed using Citespace. The publications number presented a high correlation with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in both datasets. USA was the leader of general publication about Gly, followed by Brazil, Canada and China. USA, Canada, Argentina, China and Brazil were the main countries in Gly toxicology. This subset was related with data of the GDP spending on Research & Developing and with the number of researchers by country. Thus, we ranked the main countries interested in the Gly and its toxicology and that invest their economic and human resources in these researches. Based on a keyword analysis by CiteSpace of the Gly toxicology, it was highlighted the "glyphosate-induced habitat alteration", that reflected the concern about Gly impact on agricultural and natural ecosystems. The researchers are also focused in studies involving AMPA (aminomethylphosphonic acid), the main Gly degradation product, the genotoxicity, herbicides mixture and in its presence in drinking water. More researches about Gly genotoxicity and carcinogenicity to humans are needed and more studies to compile the results of independent researches, such as meta-analytical reviews. Our study can support decisions and future efforts about Gly impacts and use, since more sustainable agriculture with less environment impact is important to the maintenance of ecosystem services and consequently the human health.

Nutritional status coverage trend registered in the SISVAN web in seven municipalities of the Zona Da Mata Mineira, Brazil, from 2008 to 2017, and its association with socio-economic, demographic and organisation of health system variables.

We analysed the coverage trend of the evaluation of the nutritional status of users of public health services registered in the Food and Nutrition Surveillance System (SISVAN) between 2008 and 2017 in seven municipalities and verified the association of the coverage trend with the socio-economic, demographic and organisational aspects of health system variables. It is an ecological time-series study performed with secondary data extracted from health information systems. Descriptive statistics, linear regression model and repeated measures analysis were performed. The coverage of evaluation of nutritional status was low over the period. Five municipalities showed a tendency to increase coverage, although small, while two remained stable. The highest annual variation in coverage increase was concentrated in the group of pregnant women and the lowest in adolescents and older adults. There was a downward trend in follow-ups from the Bolsa Family Programme and a trend towards increased follow-ups from SUS Primary Care (e-SUS AB). SISVAN coverage was positively associated with the proportion of rural population (P ≤ 0·001) and coverage of community health agents (P < 0·001); and negatively associated with total population (P < 0·001), demographic density (P = 0·006) and gross domestic product per capita (P = 0·008). Despite the tendency to increase coverage in some municipalities, SISVAN still presents low coverage of nutritional status assessment, which compromises population monitoring. Knowing the factors that influence the coverage can subsidise the elaboration of strategies for its expansion.

Medical schools in Brasil: population, economic and historical analysis

SUMMARY BACKGROUND To describe the current distribution and historical evolution of undergraduate courses in medicine in Brasil. METHODS Analytical cross-sectional study of secondary data. Through the Ministry of Education, the data of the medical courses were obtained, and through the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the population and economic data of the Brazilian states were obtained. RESULTS In Brasil, there were 298 medical courses (1,42 courses / million inhabitants) in January 2018, totaling 31,126 vacancies per year, with 9,217 gratuitous vacancies (29.6%) and 17,963 vacancies in the hinterland (57, 7%). In Brazilian states, there are positive and statistically significant (p <0.001) correlations of the variables: "vacancies" and "population" (R 0.92); "vacancies" and "gross domestic product" ("GDP") (R 0.83); "percentage of vacancies in the hinterland" and "population in the hinterland" (R 0.71) and "percentage of vacancies in the hinterland" and "GDP" (R 0.64). There was a negative and statistically significant correlation between "gratuitous vacancy percentage" and "GDP" (R -0.54, p = 0.003). More paid courses than gratuitous courses and more courses in the hinterland than in the capitals have been created since 1964, in proportions that have remained similar since then, but in higher numbers since 2002. CONCLUSIONS The distribution of medical courses in Brasil correlates with the population and economical production of each state. The expansion of Brazilian medical education, which has been accelerated since 2002, is based mainly on paid courses in the hinterland, in the same pattern since 1964.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Descrever a distribuição e evolução histórica das vagas em cursos de graduação em medicina no Brasil. MÉTODOS Estudo transversal analítico de dados secundários. No Ministério da Educação obtiveram-se dados dos cursos de medicina e no Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística foram obtidos dados populacionais e econômicos dos estados. RESULTADOS Havia no Brasil, até janeiro de 2018, 298 cursos de medicina (1,42 curso/milhão de habitantes), totalizando 31.126 vagas anuais, com 9.217 vagas gratuitas (29,6%) e 17.963 vagas no interior do País (57,7%). Nos estados há correlações positivas e significativas (p<0,001) das variáveis: "vagas em medicina" e "população" (R 0,92); "vagas em medicina" e "produto interno bruto" ("PIB") (R 0,83); "percentual de vagas em medicina no interior" e "população no interior" (R 0,71) e "percentual de vagas em medicina no interior" e "PIB" (R 0,64). Há correlação negativa e significativa entre "percentual de vagas gratuitas" e "PIB" (R -0,54, p=0,003). Passaram a ser criados mais cursos pagos do que gratuitos e mais cursos no interior do que nas capitais a partir de 1964 (p <0,001), e a relação curso/milhão de habitantes aumentou a partir de 2002 (p<0,001). CONCLUSÕES A distribuição de vagas em cursos de medicina no Brasil correlaciona-se à população e à produção econômica de cada estado. A expansão do ensino médico brasileiro, acelerada além do crescimento populacional a partir de 2002, é baseada principalmente em cursos pagos no interior dos estados brasileiros, característica inalterada desde 1964.

Determining of agricultural credit impact on agricultural production value in Turkey / Determinação do impacto do crédito agrícola no valor da produção agrícola na Turquia

Agriculture is an indispensable activity for all countries. Depending on the increasing population, food needs can be met by increasing agricultural production. In this respect, it is of great importance to investigate the value of agricultural production and the factors affecting agricultural production. This study aimed to examine the impact on the agricultural production value of agricultural bank credit in Turkey. In the study, with the aim of examining the relationship between agricultural credit and agricultural production value in Turkey, 1998-2016 real agricultural loans and agricultural real gross domestic product annual data covering the period given above were used. The statistical analysis tool is ordinary least squares (OLS) techniques. According to OLS regression, the purposed model explains 83.94% of total variance. Regression coefficients show that effect of term is higher than effect of agricultural credits. The reason for this difference may be explained as dependency of credits on macroeconomic indicators and political structure of the country. This study proposes that agricultural credit mechanism in the country needs to be developed to increase the financing opportunities for the realization of technology and modernization investments by farmers.(AU)

A agricultura é uma atividade indispensável para todos os países. Dependendo do aumento da população, as necessidades alimentares podem ser atendidas através do aumento da produção agrícola. A esse respeito, é de grande importância investigar o valor da produção agrícola e os fatores que afetam a produção agrícola. Este estudo teve como objetivo examinar o impacto no valor da produção agrícola do crédito bancário agrícola na Turquia. No estudo, com o objetivo de examinar a relação entre crédito agrícola e valor da produção agrícola na Turquia, foram utilizados os empréstimos reais para 1998-2016 e os dados anuais do produto interno bruto agrícola real, cobrindo o período indicado acima. A ferramenta de análise estatística é uma técnica de mínimos quadrados ordinários (OLS). De acordo com a regressão OLS, o modelo proposto explica 83,94% da variância total. Os coeficientes de regressão mostram que o efeito do prazo é superior ao efeito dos créditos agrícolas. O motivo dessa diferença pode ser explicado como dependência de créditos em indicadores macroeconômicos e estrutura política do país. Este estudo propõe que o mecanismo de crédito agrícola no país precise ser desenvolvido para aumentar as oportunidades de financiamento para a realização de investimentos em tecnologia e modernização pelos agricultores.(AU)

Determining of agricultural credit impact on agricultural production value in Turkey / Determinação do impacto do crédito agrícola no valor da produção agrícola na Turquia

ABSTRACT: Agriculture is an indispensable activity for all countries. Depending on the increasing population, food needs can be met by increasing agricultural production. In this respect, it is of great importance to investigate the value of agricultural production and the factors affecting agricultural production. This study aimed to examine the impact on the agricultural production value of agricultural bank credit in Turkey. In the study, with the aim of examining the relationship between agricultural credit and agricultural production value in Turkey, 1998-2016 real agricultural loans and agricultural real gross domestic product annual data covering the period given above were used. The statistical analysis tool is ordinary least squares (OLS) techniques. According to OLS regression, the purposed model explains 83.94% of total variance. Regression coefficients show that effect of term is higher than effect of agricultural credits. The reason for this difference may be explained as dependency of credits on macroeconomic indicators and political structure of the country. This study proposes that agricultural credit mechanism in the country needs to be developed to increase the financing opportunities for the realization of technology and modernization investments by farmers.

RESUMO: A agricultura é uma atividade indispensável para todos os países. Dependendo do aumento da população, as necessidades alimentares podem ser atendidas através do aumento da produção agrícola. A esse respeito, é de grande importância investigar o valor da produção agrícola e os fatores que afetam a produção agrícola. Este estudo teve como objetivo examinar o impacto no valor da produção agrícola do crédito bancário agrícola na Turquia. No estudo, com o objetivo de examinar a relação entre crédito agrícola e valor da produção agrícola na Turquia, foram utilizados os empréstimos reais para 1998-2016 e os dados anuais do produto interno bruto agrícola real, cobrindo o período indicado acima. A ferramenta de análise estatística é uma técnica de mínimos quadrados ordinários (OLS). De acordo com a regressão OLS, o modelo proposto explica 83,94% da variância total. Os coeficientes de regressão mostram que o efeito do prazo é superior ao efeito dos créditos agrícolas. O motivo dessa diferença pode ser explicado como dependência de créditos em indicadores macroeconômicos e estrutura política do país. Este estudo propõe que o mecanismo de crédito agrícola no país precise ser desenvolvido para aumentar as oportunidades de financiamento para a realização de investimentos em tecnologia e modernização pelos agricultores.

Correlating the global increase in type 1 diabetes incidence across age groups with national economic prosperity: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The global epidemiology of type 1 diabetes (T1D) is not yet well known, as no precise data are available from many countries. T1D is, however, characterized by an important variation in incidences among countries and a dramatic increase of these incidences during the last decades, predominantly in younger children. In the United States and Europe, the increase has been associated with the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In our previous systematic review, geographical variation of incidence was correlated with socio-economic factors. AIM: To investigate variation in the incidence of T1D in age categories and search to what extent these variations correlated with the GDP per capita. METHODS: A systematic review was performed to retrieve information about the global incidence of T1D among those younger than 14 years of age. The study was carried out according to the PRISMA recommendations. For the analysis, the incidence was organized in the periods: 1975-1999 and 2000-2017. We searched the incidence of T1D in the age-groups 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14. We compared the incidences in countries for which information was available for the two periods. We obtained the GDP from the World Bank. We analysed the relationship between the incidence of T1D with the GDP in countries reporting data at the national level. RESULTS: We retrieved information for 84 out of 194 countries around the world. We found a wide geographic variation in the incidence of T1D and a worldwide increase during the two periods. The largest contribution to this increase was observed in the youngest group of children with T1D, with a relative increase of almost double when comparing the two periods (P value = 2.5 × e-5). Twenty-six countries had information on the incidence of T1D at the national level for the two periods. There was a positive correlation between GDP and the incidence of T1D in both periods (Spearman correlation = 0.52 from 1975-1999 and Spearman correlation = 0.53 from 2000-2017). CONCLUSION: The incidence increase was higher in the youngest group (0-4 years of age), and the highest incidences of T1D were found in wealthier countries.

La contribución del sector de la construcción sobre el producto interno bruto PIB en Ecuador / The contribution of the construction sector on the gross domestic product gdp in Ecuador / A contribuição do sector da construção no produto interno bruto PIB no período do Equador

Resumen Introducción: La contribución del sector de la construcción en todos los países es crucial para el desarrollo económico y social. Por lo que se compara si en Ecuador se da el mismo comportamiento como se ha dado en países europeos y asiáticos. Objetivo: El presente trabajo pretende determinar la contribución del sector de la construcción sobre el Producto Interno Bruto PIB real (constante). Para ello, es fundamental realizar una revisión literaria sobre la relación entre las variables de entrada -salidas (inputs-outputs) IO. Sector construcción - Producto Interno Bruto. Métodos y materiales: se aplicó una metodología concluyente correlacional integral. Resultados: el sector de la construcción, contribuya de manera positiva en el total de producto interno bruto PIB real en Ecuador periodo 2010-2016. Conclusiones: este comportamiento no solo se da en países de primer mundo sino también en Ecuador.

Abstract Introduction: The contribution of the construction sector in all countries is crucial for economic and social development. For what it is compared if in Ecuador the same behavior occurs as has occurred in European and Asian countries. Objective: The present work tries to determine the contribution of the construction sector on the Gross Domestic Product Real GDP (constant). For this, it is essential to make a literary review about the relationship between the input variables-outputs (outputs-outputs) IO. Construction sector- Gross Domestic Product. Methods and materials: a comprehensive correlational conclusive methodology was applied. Results: the construction sector, contributes positively in the total gross domestic product Real GDP in Ecuador period 2010-2016. Conclusions: this behavior occurs not only in first world countries but also in Ecuador.

Resumo Introdução: A contribuição do setor da construção em todos os países é crucial para o desenvolvimento econômico e social. Para o que é comparado se no Equador o mesmo comportamento ocorre como ocorreu em países europeus e asiáticos. Objetivo: O presente trabalho procura determinar a contribuição do setor da construção no PIB real do Produto Interno Bruto (constante). Para isso, é essencial fazer uma revisão literária sobre a relação entre as variáveis de entrada-saídas (saídas-saídas) IO. Setor de Construção-Produto Interno Bruto. Métodos e materiais: aplicou-se uma metodologia conclusiva correlacional abrangente. Resultados: o setor de construção, contribui positivamente no produto interno bruto total do PIB real no período equatoriano 2010-2016. Conclusões: esse comportamento ocorre não apenas nos países do primeiro mundo, mas também no Equador.

Is Brazil going to achieve the road traffic deaths target? An analysis about the sustainable development goals.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the temporal relationship between the road traffic mortality rate and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Brazil, and make an annual prediction of the evolution of both indicators until 2020, the end of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) monitoring period. METHODS: Brazilian road traffic mortality rate official data were described from 2000 to 2015, while the GDP per capita official data were described from 2000 to 2013. GDP per capita and traffic mortality rate predictions were performed until 2020 using fractional polynomial analysis. Correlations were assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2015, there were over 446 000 road crashes fatal victims in Brazil. The road traffic mortality rate was positively related to the Brazilian GDP per capita, with a strong correlation (r=0.89; p<0.001) from 2000 to 2013 and a mild correlation (r=0.55; p<0.001) considering the whole period (2000-2020). The predictions show a reduction on the road traffic mortality rates in Brazil; however, if this same reduction pace continues, we estimate that the country will reach 12.4 road crash deaths per 100 000 inhabitants in 2020, a reduction of only 13.4% compared with 2015. CONCLUSION: If the same mortality reduction pace continues in Brazil, the country will not reach the proposed SDG, which is to reduce by half the number of deaths per 100 000 inhabitants. In addition, an intertwined conciliation between economical growth, sustainable development and public policies is needed in order to meet such an overwhelming goal.

Comparing definitions of spatial relations for the analysis of geographic disparities in mortality within a Bayesian mixed-effects framework / Comparação de definições de relações espaciais para a análise das desigualdades geográficas na mortalidade no quadro de efeitos mistos bayesiana

ABSTRACT: Objective: To analyze the conceptual and technical differences between three definitions of spatial relations within a Bayesian mixed-effects framework: classical multilevel definition, spatial multiple membership definition and conditional autoregressive definition with an illustration of the estimate of geographic disparities in early neonatal mortality in Colombia, 2011-2014. Methods: A registry based cross-sectional study was conducted. Births and early neonatal deaths were obtained from the Colombian vital statistics registry for 2011-2014. Crude and adjusted Bayesian mixed effects regressions were performed for each definition of spatial relation. Model fit statistics, spatial autocorrelation of residuals and estimated mortality rates, geographic disparity measures, relative ratios and relative differences were compared. Results: The definition of spatial relations between municipalities based on the conditional autoregressive prior showed the best performance according to both fit statistics and residual spatial pattern analyses. Spatial multiple membership definition had a poor performance. Conclusion: Bayesian mixed effects regression with conditional autoregressive prior as an analytical framework may be an important contribution to epidemiological design as an improved alternative to ecological methods in the analyses of geographic disparities of mortality, considering potential ecological bias and spatial model misspecification.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar as diferenças conceptuais e técnicas entre três definições de relações espaciais dentro do quadro de efeitos mistos bayesiano: definição multinível clássica, definição de filiação múltipla espacial e definição condicional auto regressivo com uma ilustração da estimativa das disparidades geográficas na mortalidade neonatal precoce na Colômbia, 2011-2014. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo transversal de base do registro. Nascimentos e mortes neonatais precoces foram obtidos a partir do registro de estatísticas vitais Colombiano para o período 2011-2014. Regressões mistas bayesianas brutos e ajustados foram realizadas para cada definição de relação espacial. As estatísticas de ajuste do modelo, autocorrelação espacial dos resíduos, as estimativas das taxas de mortalidade, as medidas de disparidade geográfica, as relações relativas e as diferenças relativas foram comparadas. Resultados: A definição das relações espaciais entre os municípios com base no priori condicional auto regressivo apresentou o melhor desempenho de acordo com as estatísticas de ajuste e a análises de padrão espacial dos resíduos. A definição de filiação múltipla espacial mostrou o mau desempenho. Conclusão: A regressão de efeitos mistos bayesiana com priori condicional auto regressivo como quadro analítico pode ser uma contribuição importante para desenho epidemiológico como uma alternativa melhorada aos métodos ecológicos nas análises das desigualdades geográficas, considerando e potencial viés ecológico e má especificação do modelo espacial.

Análisis de conglomerados para el estudio de las desigualdades sociales por enfermedades cardiovasculares / Analysis of conglomerates for the study of social inequalities due to cardiovascular diseases

RESUMEN Objetivo Establecer las desigualdades sociales en la mortalidad por enfermedades cardiovasculares en los municipios de los Departamentos del triángulo del café. Métodos Diseño ecológico que midió las desigualdades sociales en la mortalidad por hipertensión, isquemia cardiaca y accidente cerebrovascular, según indicadores económicos en los municipios de los Departamentos de Caldas, Quindío, y Risaralda. La mortalidad para el cálculo de las tasas y Necesidades Básicas Insatisfechas (NBI) se obtuvieron del Departamento Nacional de Estadística; el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) se calculó para el estudio. Se utilizó la técnica multivariada análisis de conglomerados que agrupa los municipios en clases, según la similitud en sus características. Resultados Se identificaron tres clases: los municipios de la primera clase tienen el PIB per cápita más alto, el NBI más bajo, el promedio de la tasa de mortalidad por accidente cerebrovascular más alto y el promedio de la tasa de mortalidad por hipertensión más bajo. La clase dos presenta el PIB per cápita más bajo y el promedio de la tasa de mortalidad por isquemia cardiaca más alto. La clase tres presenta el NBI más alto, el promedio más alto en la mortalidad por hipertensión e isquemia cardiaca. La conformación de los conglomerados sugiere una relación entre un NBI alto con las tasas de mortalidad por hipertensión e isquemia cardiaca. Un PIB per cápita alto y NBI bajo con la tasa mortalidad por accidente cerebrovascular. Conclusión No se observaron diferencias significativas en las tasas de mortalidad por accidente cerebrovascular, isquemia cardiaca e hipertensión, entre los Departamentos.(AU)

ABSTRACT Objetive To establish social inequalities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the municipalities located in the "triángulo del café". Methods Ecological design that measured social inequalities in mortality due to hypertension, ischemia and stroke according to economic indicators in the municipalities located in Caldas, Quindío, and Risaralda. Mortality for calculating rates and Unsatisfied Basic Needs (NBI) were obtained from the National Statistics Department; the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was calculated for the study. A multivariate cluster analysis was used grouping the municipalities into classes according to the similarity in their characteristics. Results Three classes were identified: municipalities of the first class have the highest per capita GDP, the lowest BIN, the highest mortality rate for stroke, the lowest mortality rate for the lowest hypertension. Class two has the lowest per capita GDP and the highest mortality rate for ischemic. Class three has the highest NBI, the highest average in mortality due to hypertension and ischemic. The conglomerate conformation suggests a relationship between a high BIN and the mortality rates due to hypertensive and ischemic. A high per capita GDP and low NBI with the mortality rate for stroke. Conclusion No significant differences in the mortality rates due to stroke, ischemic or hypertension, in the various states under study were observed.(AU)

Rural Community Disaster Preparedness and Risk Perception in Trujillo, Peru.

Introduction Disasters will continue to occur throughout the world and it is the responsibility of the government, health care systems, and communities to adequately prepare for potential catastrophic scenarios. Unfortunately, low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) are especially vulnerable following a disaster. By understanding disaster preparedness and risk perception, interventions can be developed to improve community preparedness and avoid unnecessary mortality and morbidity following a natural disaster. Problem The purpose of this study was to assess disaster preparedness and risk perception in communities surrounding Trujillo, Peru. METHODS: After designing a novel disaster preparedness and risk perception survey based on guidelines from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC; Geneva, Switzerland), investigators performed a cross-sectional survey of potentially vulnerable communities surrounding Trujillo, Peru. Data were entered and analyzed utilizing the Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap; Harvard Catalyst; Boston, Massachusetts USA) database. RESULTS: A total of 230 study participants were surveyed, composed of 37% males, 63% females, with ages ranging from 18-85 years old. Those surveyed who had previously experienced a disaster (41%) had a higher perception of future disaster occurrence and potential disaster impact on their community. Overall, the study participants consistently perceived that earthquakes and infection had the highest potential impact of all disasters. Twenty-six percent of participants had an emergency supply of food, 24% had an emergency water plan, 24% had a first aid kit at home, and only 20% of the study participants had an established family evacuation plan. CONCLUSION: Natural and man-made disasters will remain a threat to the safety and health of communities in all parts of the world, especially within vulnerable communities in LMICs; however, little research has been done to identify disaster perception, vulnerability, and preparedness in LMIC communities. The current study established that selected communities near Trujillo, Peru recognize a high disaster impact from earthquakes and infection, but are not adequately prepared for potential future disasters. By identifying high-risk demographics, targeted public health interventions are needed to prepare vulnerable communities in the following areas: emergency food supplies, emergency water plan, medical supplies at home, and establishing evacuation plans. Stewart M , Grahmann B , Fillmore A , Benson LS . Rural community disaster preparedness and risk perception in Trujillo, Peru. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(4):387-392.