Solid waste management and Aedes aegypti infestation interconnections: A regression tree application.

Public health is at the core of all environmental and anthropic impacts. Urban and territorial planners should include public health concerns in their plans. Basic sanitation infrastructure is essential to maintaining public health and social and economic development. This infrastructure deficiency causes diseases, death and economic losses in developing countries. Framing interconnections among health, sanitation, urbanization and circular economy will assist sustainable development goal achievements. This study aims to identify the relationships between solid waste management indicators in Brazil and the Aedes aegypti mosquito infestation index. Regression trees were employed for modelling due to the complexity and characteristics of the data. The analyses were performed separately from data collected from 3501 municipalities and 42 indicators from the country's five regions. Results show that expenses and personnel indicators were the most critical indicators (in the mid-western, southeastern and southern regions), operational (northeastern (NE) region) and management (northern region). The mean absolute errors ranged from 0.803 (southern region) to 2.507 (NE region). Regional analyses indicate that the municipalities with better SWM results display lower infestation rates in buildings and residences. This research is innovative as it analyses infestation rates rather than dengue prevalence, using a machine learning method, in a multidisciplinary research field that needs further study.

Spatial and temporal distribution of house infestation by Triatoma infestans in the Toro Toro municipality, Potosi, Bolivia.

BACKGROUND: Triatoma infestans is the main vector of Trypanosoma cruzi in Bolivia. The species is present both in domestic and peridomestic structures of rural areas, and in wild ecotopes of the Andean valleys and the Great Chaco. The identification of areas persistently showing low and high house infestation by the vector is important for the management of vector control programs. This study aimed at analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution of house infestation by T. infestans in the Toro Toro municipality (Potosi, Bolivia) between 2009 and 2014, and its association with environmental variables. METHODS: House infestation and T. infestans density were calculated from entomological surveys of houses in the study area, using a fixed-time effort sampling technique. The spatial heterogeneity of house infestation was evaluated using the SatScan statistic. Association between house infestation with Bioclim variables (Worldclim database) and altitude was analyzed using a generalized linear model (GLM) with a logit link. Model selection was based on the Akaike information criteria after eliminating collinearity between variables using the variable inflation factor. The final model was used to create a probability map of house infestation for the Toro Toro municipality. RESULTS: A total of 73 communities and 16,489 house evaluation events were analyzed. Presence of T. infestans was recorded on 480 house evaluation events, giving an overall annual infestation of 2.9% during the studied period (range 1.5-5.4% in 2009 and 2012). Vector density remained at about 1.25 insects/ house. Infestation was highly aggregated in five clusters, including 11 communities. Relative risk of infestation within these clusters was 1.7-3.9 times the value for the regional average. Four environmental variables were identified as good descriptors of house infestation, explaining 57% of house infestation variability. The model allowed the estimation of a house infestation surface for the Toro Toro municipality. CONCLUSION: This study shows that residual and persistent populations of T. infestans maintain low house infestation, representing a potential risk for the transmission of T. cruzi in these communities, and it is possible to stratify house infestation using EV, and produce a risk map to guide the activities of vector control interventions in the municipality of Toro Toro (Potosi, Bolivia).

Modeling the effects of palm-house proximity on the theoretical risk of Chagas disease transmission in a rural locality of the Orinoco basin, Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Chagas disease is a major public health concern in Latin America and it is transmitted by insects of the subfamily Triatominae, including Rhodnius spp. Since palm trees are ubiquitous in Colombia and a habitat for Rhodnius spp., the presence of palms near villages could increase contact rates between vectors and humans. Therefore, knowing whether a relationship exists between the proximity of palms to villages and the abundance and distribution of vectors therein, may be critical for Chagas disease prevention programs. Adapting a mathematical model for R. prolixus population dynamics in a small village, we model the implications of changing distances between palms and dwellings, to the risk of Chagas disease infection. METHODS: We implemented a mathematical model that reflects R. prolixus population dynamics in a small village located in the department of Casanare (Colombia) to study the role of palm-house proximity. We varied the distance between palms and houses by monitoring the network global efficiency metric. We constructed 1,000 hypothetical villages varying distances and each one was run 100 times. RESULTS: According to the model, as palm-house proximity increases, houses were more likely to be visited by triatomine bugs. The number of bugs per unit time increased progressively in a non-linear fashion with high variability. We stress the importance of village configuration on the model output. CONCLUSIONS: From a theoretical perspective, palm-house proximity may have a positive effect on the incidence of Chagas disease. The model predicts a 1% increase in new human cases per year when houses and palms are brought closer by 75%.