Causative classification of river flood events.

A wide variety of processes controls the time of occurrence, duration, extent, and severity of river floods. Classifying flood events by their causative processes may assist in enhancing the accuracy of local and regional flood frequency estimates and support the detection and interpretation of any changes in flood occurrence and magnitudes. This paper provides a critical review of existing causative classifications of instrumental and preinstrumental series of flood events, discusses their validity and applications, and identifies opportunities for moving toward more comprehensive approaches. So far no unified definition of causative mechanisms of flood events exists. Existing frameworks for classification of instrumental and preinstrumental series of flood events adopt different perspectives: hydroclimatic (large-scale circulation patterns and atmospheric state at the time of the event), hydrological (catchment scale precipitation patterns and antecedent catchment state), and hydrograph-based (indirectly considering generating mechanisms through their effects on hydrograph characteristics). All of these approaches intend to capture the flood generating mechanisms and are useful for characterizing the flood processes at various spatial and temporal scales. However, uncertainty analyses with respect to indicators, classification methods, and data to assess the robustness of the classification are rarely performed which limits the transferability across different geographic regions. It is argued that more rigorous testing is needed. There are opportunities for extending classification methods to include indicators of space-time dynamics of rainfall, antecedent wetness, and routing effects, which will make the classification schemes even more useful for understanding and estimating floods. This article is categorized under:Science of Water > Water ExtremesScience of Water > Hydrological ProcessesScience of Water > Methods.

Future precipitation variability during the early rainfall season in the El Yunque National Forest.

El Yunque National Forest, situated in the Luquillo Mountains of northeast Puerto Rico, is home to a wide range of climate-sensitive ecosystems and forest types. In particular, these ecosystems are highly sensitive to changes in the hydroclimate, even on short time scales. Current global climate models (GCMs) predict coarse-scale reductions in precipitation across the Caribbean prompting the need to investigate future fine-scale hydroclimate variability in the Luquillo Mountains. This research downscales coarse-resolution GCM RCP8.5 predictions from the IPCC CMIP5 project to the local scale to better assess future rainfall variability during the most critical period of the annual hydroclimate cycle, the early rainfall season (ERS). An artificial neural network (ANN) is developed using five field variables (1000-, 850-, 700-, and 500-hPa specific humidity and 1000-700-hPa bulk wind shear) and four derived precipitation forecasting parameters from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. During the historical period (1985-2016), the ANN predicts a binary dry (<5 mm) versus wet (≥5 mm) day outcome with 92% percent accuracy. When the historical inputs are replaced with bias-corrected data from four CMIP5 GCMs, the downscaled ensemble mean indicates a 7.2% increase in ERS dry-day frequency by mid-century (2041-2060), yielding an ERS dry-day percentage of 70% by mid-century. The results presented here show that the decrease in precipitation and wet-days is, at least in part, due to an increase in 1000-700 hPa bulk wind shear and a less favorable thermodynamic environment driven by increased mid-tropospheric warming and a stronger trade wind inversion. By regressing ERS total precipitation against dry-day frequency (R2 = 0.95), the predicted mid-century dry-day proportion corresponds to a ~200-mm decrease in seasonal precipitation. In contrast, the ensemble predicts a dry-day frequency recovery back towards the historical climatological mean by end-century (2081-2100).

Rapid decadal convective precipitation increase over Eurasia during the last three decades of the 20th century.

Convective precipitation-localized, short-lived, intense, and sometimes violent-is at the root of challenges associated with observation, simulation, and prediction of precipitation. The understanding of long-term changes in convective precipitation characteristics and their role in precipitation extremes and intensity over extratropical regions are imperative to future water resource management; however, they have been studied very little. We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4%/°C, of which 16% is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4% is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4%/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia.

Spatial-temporal variation of dissolved inorganic material in the Amazon basin / Variação espaço-temporal do material inorgânico dissolvido na bacia Amazônica

The Amazon River basin is important in the contribution of dissolved material to oceans (4% worldwide). The aim of this work was to study the spatial and the temporal variability of dissolved inorganic materials in the main rivers of the Amazon basin. Data from 2003 to 2011 from six gauging stations of the ORE-HYBAM localized in Solimões, Purus, Madeira and Amazon rivers were used for this study. The concentrations of Ca2+, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Cl-, SO4 -2, HCO3 - and SiO2 were analyzed. At the stations of Solimões and Amazon rivers, the concentrations of Ca2+, Mg2+, HCO3 - and SO4 -2 had heterogeneous distribution over the years and did not show seasonality. At the stations of Madeira river, the concentration of these ions had seasonality inversely proportional to water discharge (dilution-concentration effect). Similar behavior was observed for the concentrations of Cl- and Na+ at the stations of the Solimões, Amazon and Madeira rivers, indicating almost constant release of Cl- and Na+ fluxes during the hydrological cycle. K+ and SiO2 showed almost constant concentrations throughout the years and all the stations, indicating that their flows depend on the river discharge variation. Therefore, the temporal variability of the dissolved inorganic material fluxes in the Solimões and Amazon rivers depends on the hydro-climatic factor and on the heterogeneity of the sources. In the Madeira and Purus rivers there is less influence of these factors, indicating that dissolved load fluxes are mainly associated to silicates weathering. As the Solimões basin contributes approximately 84% of the total flux of dissolved materials in the basin and is mainly under the influence of a hydro-climatic factor, we conclude that the temporal variability of this factor controls the temporal variability of the dissolved material fluxes of the Amazon basin.

A bacia do rio Amazonas é importante no aporte de material dissolvido para o oceano (4% a nível mundial). O objetivo deste trabalho foi estudar a variabilidade espaço-temporal do material inorgânico dissolvido nos principais rios da bacia Amazônica, para o qual foram utilizados dados entre 2003 e 2011 de seis estações hidrológicas do ORE-HYBAM localizadas nos rios Solimões, Purus, Madeira e Amazonas, analisados Ca2+, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Cl-, SO4 -2, HCO3 - e SiO2. Nas estações do rio Solimões e Amazonas as concentrações de Ca2+, Mg2+, HCO3 - e SO4 -2 tiveram distribuição heterogênea ao longo dos anos e não apresentaram sazonalidade. Nas estações do rio Madeira a concentração desses íons mostraram sazonalidade inversamente proporcional à vazão (efeito diluição-concentração). Comportamento similar tiveram Cl- e Na+ nas estações dos rios Solimões, Amazonas e Madeira, indicando liberação quase constante desses fluxos ao longo do ciclo hidrológico. K+ e SiO2 apresentaram concentrações quase constantes ao longo dos anos e entre as estações, indicando que seus fluxos dependem da variação da vazão. Portanto, a variação temporal do fluxo de material inorgânico dissolvido no rio Solimões e Amazonas depende do fator hidroclimatológico e da heterogeneidade das fontes. Nos rios Madeira e Purus há menor influência desses fatores, o que evidencia maior aporte dos silicatos. Como a bacia do Solimões aporta aproximadamente 84% do fluxo total de material dissolvido na bacia e está sob influência, principalmente, do fator hidroclimático, pode-se concluir que a variabilidade temporal desse fator controla a temporalidade dos fluxos do material dissolvido na bacia Amazônica.

Spatial and temporal distribution of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in a drinking water resource: implications for monitoring and risk assessment.

Because of their significant public health impact, waterborne Cryptosporidium and Giardia have been monitored in surface water in order to assess microbial quality of water bodies used for drinking water production and/or for recreational purposes. In this context, sampling strategy is of key importance and should be representative enough to appropriately assess the related microbial risk. This, however, requires sound knowledge on the behaviour of both pathogens in water. In the present study, the spatial and temporal distribution of Cryptosporidium and Giardia was explored in the rural Upper-Sûre watershed used for drinking water production in Luxembourg. By subdividing it into three compartments including (i) sub-catchments, (ii) the Sûre River fed by the sub-catchments and (iii) the Upper-Sûre reservoir fed by the Sûre River, parasite distribution was assessed using sampling designs adapted to the hydro-dynamic characteristics of the respective compartments. Results highlighted the high spatial and temporal variability in parasite distribution at watershed scale, as well as the prevalence of Giardia over Cryptosporidium. Besides land use features and catchment characteristics, hydro-climatology appeared to be a major driver of parasite behaviour in the watershed. It introduced a seasonal trend in their occurrence, highest densities being detected during the wet season. Peaks of contamination triggered out by rainfall-induced runoff were further observed in the three compartments. In the Sûre River, Cryptosporidium and Giardia fluxes peaked at 10(9) and 10(10) (oo)cysts.d(-1), respectively, and were discharged into the drinking water reservoir, where they underwent a 2 to 3 log10 removal rate. Despite this, parasite fluxes entering the drinking water treatment plant were still high (10(6) to 10(7) (oo)cysts.d(-1)) and stressed on the need for improved watershed management upstream the water treatment barrier. The catchment-wide analysis described here constitutes a valuable tool for assessment of catchment microbial dynamics, especially within the framework of Water Safety Plans.